Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE]Never say never, but in theory, I agree with a 3 year limit. It might mean we never sign another big name FA again. Do you consider Hamilton(31 years old) "a Manny or AG"?   He's got 31 jacks in just 450 PAs so far this year! How about Greinke (age 28)? 25-10 from 2011 to today. Melky Cabrera (age 28)?   Batting .348 this year with a .392 OBP.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]I would say no to any of those guys for 4+ years. Let some other team overpay for past performance. The thing is you can't get a Manny or an AG every year, that's what makes guys like them exceptional.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    I might offer Cabrera $56M/4 years, but that won't be enough.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

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    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond... : I would say no to any of those guys for 4+ years. Let some other team overpay for past performance. The thing is you can't get a Manny or an AG every year, that's what makes guys like them exceptional.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    You are 100% correct when you say the Sox can't get a player like Agon or Manny every year and even more so when they try and come up empty ala CC, Beckett, Lackey.  The Sox will be paying for these mistakes for years to come and they will affect future long term contracts...ie Pedroia or other available FAs on the market.  The track record of the Sox since 2007 is not one that would encourage or endear a FA to want to come to Boston.  The real hope of the Sox now seems to lie in the farm system and while there are some good prospects down there...they are just that...prospects...until they arrive and deliver the goods.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    You are 100% correct when you say the Sox can't get a player like Agon or Manny every year and even more so when they try and come up empty ala CC, Beckett, Lackey.  The Sox will be paying for these mistakes for years to come and they will affect future long term contracts...ie Pedroia or other available FAs on the market.  The track record of the Sox since 2007 is not one that would encourage or endear a FA to want to come to Boston.  The real hope of the Sox now seems to lie in the farm system and while there are some good prospects down there...they are just that...prospects...until they arrive and deliver the goods.

    Well said. We need to hope all these "hot prospects" deliver.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    We may need to fast-track at a position or two this year, so we can focus on improving bigtime at a couple slots: SP and RF/Cleaup RH'er.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE]We may need to fast-track at a position or two this year, so we can focus on improving bigtime at a couple slots: SP and RF/Cleaup RH'er.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Youk+Dice+Jenks = ~30M. 

    IF you keep Papi, then filling the RF slot is much easier.  I dont feel comfortable with Middlebrooks as our #3 or #4 hitter next year.  Ditto w Pedey.

    So if you retain Papi, then the middle of your lineup is set.

    Papi - #3 hitter
    AGON - cleanup
    Middlebrooks - 5th


    For simplicity sake: lets assume Papi comes back at the same rate.  Although I wouldnt be against a 3 yr / 27 million dollar deal (saving 5m for next year).

    With Pedey/Ellsbury occupying the #1 and #2 spots and Craw at #6, we have a good amount of our lineup set, with 30 M to play with.

    So if we take the 30 M , take out 3m for an ellsbury raise, that brings us down to 27.  I think we can take 8 or 9 to retain Ross.  Now, our lineup is set 1-7 (w/ C and SS as the final two positions, which should be filled internally).

    Giving us about 18-19M to work on the pitching staff.

    This is why Papi is worth every penny of 14M / yr.  Our lineup falls into place with him here.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    32 Million for 2 Years.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

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    Unfortunately the Sox don't have much choice except to bring Papi back for a year or two.  That said, once his next contract is up...the Sox need to be able to use the DH role similar to the Yanks where they rotate days off from the field for certain players without losing their bat out of the lineup instead of having a designated DH like Papi who is not of much value when it comes to a fielding spot on the roster.  In other words, now the Sox are actually one position player short of most teams in the AL because of not being able to use Papi in the field...a definite disadvantage for the Sox in some tight games. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    Big Papi will go to the Yankees if the Sox screw this up. You can almost see the headlines if that does happen.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    Youk+Dice+Jenks = ~30M. 

    It's not as simple as this. We have many arb raises or raises before arbs as usual with the Sox. I figured to stay even with last year, we'll have about $28-30M to spend NOT COUNTING PAPI!

    If we sign Papi to $15M, we'll have the same line-up, but hopefully healthier, and only about $13-15M to spend on upgrades here or there.

    I think Staring Pitcher is our biggest need, and $13M is not going to get us an ace, unless via trade. Others think we need a power Rh'd bat to play RF (well) and bat clean-up so Middlebrooks has pressure taken off him by batting 6th (vs LHPs) and 7th (vs RHPs) as CC and hin flip-flop. 

    IF you keep Papi, then filling the RF slot is much easier.  I dont feel comfortable with Middlebrooks as our #3 or #4 hitter next year.  Ditto w Pedey.

    Pedey's best slot over his career has been clean-up. Vs RHPs, I think CC should bat 2nd:

    1) Ells
    2) CC
    3) Papi
    4) Pedey
    5) AGon
    6) Midds
    7) Our next Cody Ross
    8) Salty/Lava
    9) SS of the day

    vs LHPs, put Pedey back to 2nd:
    1) Ells
    2) Pedey
    3) Papi
    4) AGon
    5) Midds
    6) Our next Cody Ross
    7) Lava/Salty
    8) SS of the day
    9) CC

    So if you retain Papi, then the middle of your lineup is set.

    Papi - #3 hitter
    AGON - cleanup
    Middlebrooks - 5th


    For simplicity sake: lets assume Papi comes back at the same rate.  Although I wouldnt be against a 3 yr / 27 million dollar deal (saving 5m for next year).

    With Pedey/Ellsbury occupying the #1 and #2 spots and Craw at #6, we have a good amount of our lineup set, with 30 M to play with.

    So if we take the 30 M , take out 3m for an ellsbury raise, that brings us down to 27.  I think we can take 8 or 9 to retain Ross.  Now, our lineup is set 1-7 (w/ C and SS as the final two positions, which should be filled internally).

    Other abrs:
    Bailey, Salty, Aceves, Aviles, Morales, Breslow, Sweeney, Bard, and Hill. Then, we have to fill Cook & Padilla's slots as well.

    Giving us about 18-19M to work on the pitching staff.

    I have it at about $13M if we keep papi at $15M.

    This is why Papi is worth every penny of 14M / yr.  Our lineup falls into place with him here.

    But our staff will likely fall to pieces.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

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    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE]Big Papi will go to the Yankees if the Sox screw this up. You can almost see the headlines if that does happen.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Yanks don't want Papi - they have to have the DH to rest their old men every couple of days.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

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    I can see Baltimore taking a good long look at Papi if the Sox let him go.  They are a young team with no need to rest their young players.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

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    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE]Youk+Dice+Jenks = ~30M.  It's not as simple as this. We have many arb raises or raises before arbs as usual with the Sox. I figured to stay even with last year, we'll have about $28-30M to spend NOT COUNTING PAPI ! If we sign Papi to $15M, we'll have the same line-up, but hopefully healthier, and only about $13-15M to spend on upgrades here or there. I think Staring Pitcher is our biggest need, and $13M is not going to get us an ace, unless via trade. Others think we need a power Rh'd bat to play RF (well) and bat clean-up so Middlebrooks has pressure taken off him by batting 6th (vs LHPs) and 7th (vs RHPs) as CC and hin flip-flop.  IF you keep Papi, then filling the RF slot is much easier.  I dont feel comfortable with Middlebrooks as our #3 or #4 hitter next year.  Ditto w Pedey. Pedey's best slot over his career has been clean-up. Vs RHPs, I think CC should bat 2nd: 1) Ells 2) CC 3) Papi 4) Pedey 5) AGon 6) Midds 7) Our next Cody Ross 8) Salty/Lava 9) SS of the day vs LHPs, put Pedey back to 2nd: 1) Ells 2) Pedey 3) Papi 4) AGon 5) Midds 6) Our next Cody Ross 7) Lava/Salty 8) SS of the day 9) CC So if you retain Papi, then the middle of your lineup is set. Papi - #3 hitter AGON - cleanup Middlebrooks - 5th For simplicity sake: lets assume Papi comes back at the same rate.  Although I wouldnt be against a 3 yr / 27 million dollar deal (saving 5m for next year). With Pedey/Ellsbury occupying the #1 and #2 spots and Craw at #6, we have a good amount of our lineup set, with 30 M to play with. So if we take the 30 M , take out 3m for an ellsbury raise, that brings us down to 27.  I think we can take 8 or 9 to retain Ross.  Now, our lineup is set 1-7 (w/ C and SS as the final two positions, which should be filled internally). Other abrs: Bailey, Salty, Aceves, Aviles, Morales, Breslow, Sweeney, Bard, and Hill. Then, we have to fill Cook & Padilla's slots as well. Giving us about 18-19M to work on the pitching staff. I have it at about $13M if we keep papi at $15M. This is why Papi is worth every penny of 14M / yr.  Our lineup falls into place with him here. But our staff will likely fall to pieces.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If you have Pedey at #4, like you suggest above:

    Ellsbury
    Crawford
    Agon
    Pedey
    Middlebrooks
    Lava (DH)
    Salty
    RF
    Ciricao

    That is a flawed lineup.  Pedey doesnt really have the pop to hit cleanup, and the bottom half of the lineup is far from guaranteed.

    With Papi:
    Ellsbury
    Pedey
    Ortiz
    Agon
    Middlebrooks
    Crawford
    Salty/Lava
    RF (hopefully Ross)
    Ciricao

    This is a much better lineup.  Unlike above, you have two feared hitters w/ pop in the middle.  Pedey is allowed to assume his natural role as a table setter.  moving Craw from 2nd to sixth drastically deepens your lineup.  It also allows us to platoon Lava and Salty (ride the hot bat) as opposed to relying on both.

    The lineup is much deeper , is better constructed, and has tons more pop with Papi in it.  There are all sorts of problems without Papi.  To me, this makes Papi worth 15M / year.  15M wont get you an ace.  That being the case, the best use of the money is on Papi.

    Also: pitching is such a crapshoot.  Not going after an ace, does not mean you wont have one.  Who knows....It could be Morales, Doubront, Bard, Aceves....These guys have as much of a chance of evolving into an ace as any pitcher you are going to get for 15M anyways.

    I agree that our biggest need is SP; however, I disagree that this means that we should allocate all of our resources to pitching.  One of the reasons why pitching is our biggest need is because of Papi.  If not for Papi, we'd have two pressing needs: pitching and power. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

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    We spent almost 10M on one yr of John Smoltz.  15M is not going to fix the pitcing issues.  However, taking the 15M from Papi and allocating it to pitching is going to create a lot of lineup issues.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

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    John Smoltz was one of the worst money for performance free agents in MLB history. for the Sox...it was like throwing 9 million into an incinerator.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    If you have Pedey at #4, like you suggest above:

    Ellsbury
    Crawford
    Agon
    Pedey
    Middlebrooks
    Lava (DH)
    Salty
    RF
    Ciricao

    That is a flawed lineup.  Pedey doesnt really have the pop to hit cleanup, and the bottom half of the lineup is far from guaranteed.

    With Papi:
    Ellsbury
    Pedey
    Ortiz
    Agon
    Middlebrooks
    Crawford
    Salty/Lava
    RF (hopefully Ross)
    Ciricao

    This is a much better lineup. 

    Of course a line-up with Papi in it is better. My line-up had Pedey 4th and Papi 3rd.

     Unlike above, you have two feared hitters w/ pop in the middle.  Pedey is allowed to assume his natural role as a table setter.  moving Craw from 2nd to sixth drastically deepens your lineup. 

    To me, Pedey has more pop than CC, esp against LHP. CC up 2nd vs lefties lengthens our line-up- with or without Papi, unless we put a guy like Aviles or Ciriaco 2nd.

     It also allows us to platoon Lava and Salty (ride the hot bat) as opposed to relying on both.

    The lineup is much deeper , is better constructed, and has tons more pop with Papi in it.  There are all sorts of problems without Papi.  To me, this makes Papi worth 15M / year.  15M wont get you an ace.  That being the case, the best use of the money is on Papi.

    Also: pitching is such a crapshoot.  Not going after an ace, does not mean you wont have one.  Who knows....It could be Morales, Doubront, Bard, Aceves....These guys have as much of a chance of evolving into an ace as any pitcher you are going to get for 15M anyways.

    I agree that our biggest need is SP; however, I disagree that this means that we should allocate all of our resources to pitching.  One of the reasons why pitching is our biggest need is because of Papi.  If not for Papi, we'd have two pressing needs: pitching and power. 

    If Papi walks, we need a SP and a clean-up hitter. I never said otherwise. However, if we have to chose just one: I'll go with a solid ace.

    We spent almost 10M on one yr of John Smoltz.  15M is not going to fix the pitcing issues.  However, taking the 15M from Papi and allocating it to pitching is going to create a lot of lineup issues.

    We have $28M, if we spend $15M on a SP (not my plan), $13M can get us a nice bat too.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    No easy choices.   If he can get a really good starter, Ben C should should use almost anyone as trade bait--Ells, Pedey, Middlebrooks, whoever. 

    That said, the current roster has the potential to hit well in 2013, especially if Ortiz returns and--a big if here--he remains healthy and plays 150 games or more next year, unlike this year.  Lineup:  Ells, CC, Ortiz, AGon, Ped, Middlebrooks, Ross, Ciriaco/Aviles, Salty/Shoppach/Lavarnway. 

    I would agree with everyone on letting Ortiz go were it not how bad the lineup has been without him. His 89 game OPS is 1.024, which is incredible, with no one else on the current roster anywhere near that.  AGon might finish over .900 this year, and could get to .950 or more next year, plus he is a great rbi guy who plays every day.   But two guys like that is a lot better than one. 

    If letting Ortiz go helps get that good starter, I'm for it. Otherwise,not.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE] We have $28M, if we spend $15M on a SP (not my plan), $13M can get us a nice bat too.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    It will be hard to find a bat who can hit #3 or #4 in your lineup for 13M.  Pence isnt a #3 or #4 hitter (a good #5 maybe).  Papi is actually good value at 13M (if you can get him for that).  People say he's an overpaid DH.  The truth is, he is one of the cheapest #3 hitters around (excluding guys playing under rookie deals or team friendly deals that were signed when a player was controlled by the team for a couple years and therefore had no leverage).
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    I've mentioned how "overpaying" a free agent saves money on developing a player through your system and how it usually takes paying to develop many many preospects to get one tha contributes. It's not about just looking at the cost of the FA. Also, when you compare a FA signing and compare him to non-free agent contracts, it is a bit misleading. Many "team friendly" contracts were signed by players before they reached arb or during the early arb years, when "free market" prices just don't apply.

    Here's a list of FS starters this winter (Age at start of 2013):

    Greinke (29)
    A Sanchez (29)
    McCarthy (29)
    C Lewis (33)
    Lohse (34)
    Marcum (31)
    Guthrie (33+)
    Pavano (37)
    Saunders (31)
    J Sanchez (30)
    Lowe (39)
    Liriano (29)
    Dice-K (32)
    Blanton (32)
    Correia (32)
    Zambrano (31) (Player vesting option is void)

    Pitchers in Red will likely be Free Agents due to high option cost...

    Options:
    Peavy (31) $22M club w $4M buyout
    Dickey $5M club w $300K buyout
    Shields $9M club w $1.5M buyout, then 2014: $12M club w $1M buyout
    Floyd  $9.5M club no buyout
    E Santana (29) $13M club w $1M buyout (May be kept by LAA)
    Hudson $9M club w $1M buyout
    Haren (32) $15.5M club w $3.5M buyout (May be kept by LAA)
    Westbrook $8.5M mutual w $1M buyout of club declines
    R. Hernandez (32) $9M club & 2014 $12M club
    Baker $9.25 (31) M club
    de la Rosa $11M PLAYER OPTION w $M buyout, if taken club 2014 option.


    While Peavy, Lewis, Lohse, Marcum, and Haren offer hopes of a nice return, their ages and/or injury histories are troublesome. The plus to these guys 9except for Peavy and marcum at age 31 is that the others might be had at short term deals.

    Probably the best available FA pitchers for the Sox are:

    Best:
    Greinke
    Peavy
    A Sanchez
    McCarthy

    Good:
    Haren
    Santana

    Marginal:
    Lohse/Marcum/Guthrie

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    It will be hard to find a bat who can hit #3 or #4 in your lineup for 13M.  Pence isnt a #3 or #4 hitter (a good #5 maybe).  Papi is actually good value at 13M (if you can get him for that).  People say he's an overpaid DH.  The truth is, he is one of the cheapest #3 hitters around (excluding guys playing under rookie deals or team friendly deals that were signed when a player was controlled by the team for a couple years and therefore had no leverage).

    When I said the CC contract would cripple us for 7 years, this is year 2. I really think we need to seriously look at a way to dump one of our big contracts. I realize Beckett is probably the easiest to trade and not have to pay a huge chunk, but dealing him would just creat a second hole in our rotation. That leaves Crawford. If we can deal him and add $10-12M to our spending budget, I think we can address both big needs and fill CC's spot with in-system players or by trying to bring Ross back at a reasonable rate to DH and play LF. The other option is to trade Ellsbury for a lower cost player(s). I know it is unlikely, so let's address what else we can do (note: I am not sure I am for signing these guys, but offer this plan as a possible choice):

    1) Trade Salty for a a couple decent prospects or one very good one. (Save $4.5-6M)
         Go with Lava and a cheap vet similar to Shoppach.

    2) Trade Aviles or Iggy. I much prefer keeping Iggy, but as I said before, if we aren't ever going to play him, why have we paid him $2M a year to play in the minors for 3 years going on 4 in 2013? (Save $1.5 - 2M)
        Go with Iggy, Ciriaco and/or Bogaerts

    3) Trade Punto and pay $500-750K of his deal. (Save $0.5M)
        See #3

    4) If we keep CC and Ellsbury, trade Sweeney. (Save $2-2.5M)
         Go with Linares, Nava, Kalish, Bradley or a guy like Pods.

    5) Consider trading Bard, Miller, or Hill, if we get decent return (not likely).

    Total savings: $8M to $11M if all are done.

    Let's assume it is a $9M savings. That leaves us with $37M to spend.

    We could sign:

    Papi:
    $14M in 2013 (+$500K with 450+ PAs, $500K with 500+, and $500K for 600+ PAs)
    $13M in 2014 (+$750K with 450+ PAs, $750K with 500+, and $500K for 600+ PAs)
    $7M player option in 2015 (same incentives as 2014)
    Luxury Tax Cost: $24M/3 or $8M per year.

    Greinke:
    $72M/4 years (with incentives for top 4 Cy Young placement) $18M per year.

    Cody Ross:
    $18M/3 (with incentives for PAs) $6M per year.

    Shoppach or similar:
    $2M for 1 year

    $3M remaining to spend at the deadline in 2013 if needed.

    2013 New 25 Roster
    C Lavarnway
    C Shoppach
    1B AGon
    DH Papi
    2B Pedey
    3B Middlebrooks
    SS Iggy
    IF  Ciriaco
    IF  Gomez/Valencia/Bogaerts
    LF Crawford
    CF Ellsbury
    RF Ross
    OF Linares/Kalish/Nava/Pods/Bradley/Brentz
    SP Greinke
    SP Buch
    SP Lester
    SP Beckett
    SP Lackey
    SP/LR Doubront
    CL Bailey
    RP Aceves
    RP Morales
    RP Breslow
    RP Miller
    RP Mort/Melan/Atch/Hill/Taz/Stew/Carp 

    -OR-

    Sign Josh Hamilton for $20M/yr and Grenke for for $18M/yr and backfill the other slots with prospects or low cost FAs.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    Will we dump any salary on a waiver deal, or are we still clinging to hope?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    Looks like a new manager next year, or 17 new players.

    I wonder if Ben is looking into firing BV now... maybe some "Morgan Magic" type scenario.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    In Response to Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...:
    [QUOTE]Will we dump any salary on a waiver deal, or are we still clinging to hope?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon, I completely agree.  Papi is worht 14M / yr.  And if we let him go because of crippling contracts: Craw, Lackey, Beckett, it really would be a shame.

    I think that shedding one of these contracts will create the payroll flexibility necessary to retain Ortiz (a must) and aquire a top of the rotaion starter (a must).

    I've been saying: we should look into dishing some prospects w/ bad contracts for no return.  We'll give you this package of prospects (Brentz, Renaudo, Carpenter) if you take Beckett.  We dont need anything back.  I'd like to see us get creative with something like this.

    I was hoping at the deadline that a GM would claim Beckett.  But he's really hurt the chances of this happening.  It only takes one foolish GM to claim Beckett, and the whole world scratched their heads when CWS claimed Rios.  Unfortunately, Beckett has continued to stink and hurt his chances of being claimed.  Still its odd that he hasnt hit waivers yet.  Hopefully he'll throw a fluke 9 inning shutout, the sox will immediately put him on waivers, a rival GM will read too much into a one game performance and claim him.

    Maybe this is what the sox are waiting for?

    At least the 15M for Jenks and DiceK is freeing up.  I know that most of this money is going to go to raises for arbitration eligible players, but still...can you imagine the situation we'd be in we had another 15M in dead money?  Those arbitration raises would still come.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    Bump
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Big Contracts, 2013, and Beyond...

    Moon, I completely agree.  Papi is worht 14M / yr.  And if we let him go because of crippling contracts: Craw, Lackey, Beckett, it really would be a shame.

    I think that shedding one of these contracts will create the payroll flexibility necessary to retain Ortiz (a must) and aquire a top of the rotaion starter (a must).

    I've been saying: we should look into dishing some prospects w/ bad contracts for no return.  We'll give you this package of prospects (Brentz, Renaudo, Carpenter) if you take Beckett.  We dont need anything back.  I'd like to see us get creative with something like this.

    I was hoping at the deadline that a GM would claim Beckett.  But he's really hurt the chances of this happening.  It only takes one foolish GM to claim Beckett, and the whole world scratched their heads when CWS claimed Rios.  Unfortunately, Beckett has continued to stink and hurt his chances of being claimed.  Still its odd that he hasnt hit waivers yet.  Hopefully he'll throw a fluke 9 inning shutout, the sox will immediately put him on waivers, a rival GM will read too much into a one game performance and claim him.

    Maybe this is what the sox are waiting for?

    At least the 15M for Jenks and DiceK is freeing up.  I know that most of this money is going to go to raises for arbitration eligible players, but still...can you imagine the situation we'd be in we had another 15M in dead money?  Those arbitration raises would still come.

    We can still win in 2013 without dealing a dead weight salary, but it won't be easy. Assuming no salry dump is made, a number of things need to happen, and some of them are highly unlikely. I think we will need at least 2-3 of these things to come together next year for us to have a solid chance at a ring:

    1) The big 3 starters have to stay healthy and pitch well all year. (As I said last winter, this was unlikely, and that we were putting all our beans in this one basket- hence my call for trying to get durable 1-2 slot starter).

    2) We wisely spend the $28-30M or so that we will have left on the budget after all arbs are dealt with.

    3) We make a key minor to mid level trade or two involving the usual suspects: Salty, Aviles, Sweeney, Atchison, Melancon... that fills a high need area, like SP, RF, or DH if Papi walks.

    4) We deal some prospects for someone more than just a one-year fix. Someone young and relatively inexpensive, but proven (not easy to do).

    5) We finally have a team that all comes to camp in shape and in the right frame of mind to work hard and stay healthy, plus the bad luck injury bug flies a bit Soutwest of Boston over the winter.

    6) Hope some fast-tracked prospects make it big, and we have a rookie infusion like 1975: 2-3 of Lava, Bradley, Brentz, Iggy, Barnes or a surprise like Linares.

    I'd rather not have to count on #1, 4, 5 or 6, and help ourselves along by dumping one big contract, perhaps using your method, and allowing us to keep Papi at least one more year, get a solid starter, and maybe find another Cody Ross diamond in the ruff, or something more longterm.

    I know Beckett looks like the obvious choice for a number of reasons:
    1) Has more value than the surgery needing CC or the returning from injury Lackey.
    2) Seems to have lost the drive we saw in 2007.
    3) Shake things up, and make everyone see that they are all expendable.

    However, Next year is Beckett's "on year", as it is odd. He still represents one of our best chances as a starter in a playoff game, regardless of all that has happened recently. Dumping him, would now mean we need to top of rotation starters not one.

    Drew, I like your idea, but another option would be something I have suggested often, like trading CC and maybe $8M a year from 2014-2017 to SF for Barry Zito and maybe a Sergio Romo or Hector Sanchez (we give them Cecchini or Aviles too). We won't save money in 2013, but beyond we strike gold. Zito's not the only MLB player that a team is looking to dump.
     

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