Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from samclemens. Show samclemens's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]Boston will be the team to be beat, but so are the Rays and Yankees. If Boston stays healthy for the whole season, then they should win the division. For Yankees to win the division, they have to stay healthy as well for Boston to start piling up injuries. For Rays to win the division, they need both Yankees/Red Sox to pile up injuries. I cant not foresee Rays to win the division against healthy Yankees/Red Sox teams. Rays just lacks bullpen and a closer.  
    Posted by GoUconn13[/QUOTE]  Since the Red Sox have only won the division once in the last 15 years, it's certainly possible to suggest that are overdue.  The Yankees have won the division year in and year out regardless of their health (significant injuries have been largely irrelevant).  The Rays have always lacked even average offense which separates them from the Sox and Yankees and have made up for it with young and consistent pitching and winning close games.  It's not a bad blueprint and they have been better than their major competitor, the Red Sox, in recent years because of the injuries to the latter.  The Sox and Rays will once again be in the mix for a wildcard and postseason spot in 2012.  That is who they are and what they do.   
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaBlade. Show DaBlade's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    Yes but with caveats...
    First they need to be healthier then they were last year (read a stat that showed they were the unluckiest of all major league teams in terms of injured players and the downgrade that happens from starter to replacement).
    Second they had the toughest schedule when looking at opponents win % on day game was played.
    Third they Had a meltdown due to leadership void which I think will not happen on a Valentine led team.
    Factor this with the fact they won 90 last year and they should be a tough out this season as well... and I didn't even mention Crawfords dismal numbers which are bound to be better as well as the RF position can't be worst then last year.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    If the Sox can pull off a Garza trade, you can lock em up as the favorites for next year... Assuming Buchholz is healthy.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

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    Injuries will play a large part in who wins the American league east. We can only hope that the Sox have the injury bug behind them.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

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    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East?? : Try like losing a basketball game in the last second after blowing a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter. That glass is empty.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    And who do you blame that loss on, do you need to review the entire game and pinpoint the multitude of mistakes made by all of the players, referees, coaches, and bad luck. I watch high school basketball a lot locally and am often upset when they lose. But isn't the game lost in every quarter other than the last two minutes? 

    Yes I was devasted when Papelbon blew it with one out to go. Where is the Forum bashing of Papelbon, I  haven't seen it.  The Red Sox blew it all as a 25 member team in September but the trolls dare not go there there,. The trolls, for their act to be successful, need to narrow it down down to one or two players - that is the strategy of trolls. The trolls come here to inflame. Get used to them since they are here to stay. There is no escape.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    Favorite?
    My favorite team for sure but third place is a best case scenario.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    Could be pike, but I'm not ready to go there yet. If we pick up one more good SP, I'd say we're on our way. As it is now, I begin to see it, we're almost there.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

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    In response to "Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??": [QUOTE]Favorite? My favorite team for sure but third place is a best case scenario. Posted by WesternOregon[/QUOTE] I think we'll be better than that west, provided we aren't devastated with injuries.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

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    I hope not. Too much pressure to be seen that way, and have to deal with all the expectations all season. Let someone else be the favorites, and then we can just take them by surprise. Sounds like way more fun to me. A little incentive goes a long way.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

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    In response to "Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??": [QUOTE]I hope not. Too much pressure to be seen that way, and have to deal with all the expectations all season. Let someone else be the favorites, and then we can just take them by surprise. Sounds like way more fun to me. A little incentive goes a long way. Posted by kimsaysthis[/QUOTE] I'd tend to agree. I don't want the Sox to go into this season as overwhelming favorites.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    I'd like to see our #5 first.  We were favored last year, but two of the guys that were supposed to be #3 SPs for last year will contribute almost nothing this year.  That's a lot to make up.

    But I'll still be comfortable with what SWchilling said prior to 2007.  Whoever gets the most starts from their regular roation will win.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Arodswallows. Show Arodswallows's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    please NO more talk about being "the favorite" or winning 100 games

    GOT JINX?
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]I'd like to see our #5 first.  We were favored last year, but two of the guys that were supposed to be #3 SPs for last year will contribute almost nothing this year.  That's a lot to make up. But I'll still be comfortable with what SWchilling said prior to 2007.  Whoever gets the most starts from their regular roation will win.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    If that is all that factors into it, then the Sox will not win, Tampa will.  But the Sox have the best offensive team again.  If they add another dependable starter, say a Kuroda or a trade for Niese, even a Maholm, then I think Aceves stays in the bullpen as the long man/spot starter/7th inning guy he was last year.  And that means the Sox have the best bullpen as well.  Having the best offense and the best bullpen may also be a viable formula to winning...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

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    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]The way I see it is that they MAY have replaced Papelbon with Bailey, if Bailey stays healthy. They may have replaced Bard with Melancon, but it will be hard for Melancon or anyone to duplicate the performance Bard brought to the set up role for most of last year. I have no idea whether Aceves, whom I liked as soon as they signed him last winter, will be an effective starter, since he has not excelled in that role in the past, and I was duly unimpressed with Andrew Miller, and was shocked to see brought back after last year's performance. So I do not see the Sox having improved themselves much if at all, and it would be hard to imagine that they have improved so much that they would be the favorites to leap frog from two third-place finishes in a row.
    Posted by mistermoose[/QUOTE]

    The way you factored it, you would think Bard left the team.  He is moving into the starting rotation, if all goes well in spring.  He will be better than John Lackey almost certainly.  And Bailey, if he stays healthy will be as good as Papelbon was last season.  Melancon may not be quite as good as Bard was at his best, but Bard had a shaky beginning and a shaky end to his season, so Melancon may be just as good in the totality.  Jenks will be better almost certainly if he regains his health, since he contributed nothing.  And if Hill is resigned and returns he will be more useful too.  Expect a starter to be added.  When that happens there will be almost no way that the pitching next season will not be better than it was last season.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    We were picked by most to win not only the ALE, but the AL and the WS last year....ended up in 3rd in the ALE. Pre-season predictions/power rankings are tenuous at best, but below is mine for the ALE in 2012:

    1st  New York
    2nd Tampa
    3rd  Boston
    4th  Toronto
    5th  Baltimore

    We have way too many questions, re: Starting Staff, who is the closer, RF, too left handed in the lineup, health of Youk, Buch, etc., an entire new Front Office, Manager and Coaching Staff, questions around team chemistry with Beckett, Youk vs. Bobby V. who's in charge of the asylum? The Yankees will be the Yankees, Tampa's pitching is excellent and very deep. I would even say to all, that we should be concerned about Toronto leaping over us for 3rd this year.

    Having said all that 2013 will, hopefully, bode better and offer up a much better prognostication.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    New York has the same questions as us...and Tampa has zero offense.  A September collapse last season doesn't guarantee poor performance next year.

    despite that horrible slide, we still missed the playoffs by ONE game, and we have addressed our biggest hole unlike other teams.  our bullpen has been completely revamped.  Yes 4,5 starter is a question mark but...

    Anything can be better than having a pitcher who was deadlast in the league in ERA.  So theres addition through subtraction, and I'm sure one of Bard/Aceves will emerge as at least a decent starter.

    Other teams, including the Yankees have had the same question marks as us and have done less to answer them.

    Things don't always work out the way you want them too, the way they should work out etc.....but looking at the talent we have on paper, and considering the holes other teams have as well as us we should be the favorites to win again.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Plluto29. Show Plluto29's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    The Sox are not the favorites in the East as they have lost overall talent compared to what they have brought in.  The Sox don't have a legitimate RF, SS, 4&5 starters, reliable mid-relievers, and a power-hitting bench player or two.  Last year, with all the ballyhoo about signing Crawford and obtaining Gonzalez, these are essentially the same holes they had last year before the season started (I took catching off as a need from last year though Saltalamacchia and Lavarnaway still need to prove to me that they can handle the position  although at this point I am willing to consider them as solid). I could easily see this team finishing anywhere from 1st to 4th in the division. The Sox have to find from somewhere (internally or outside) at least one legitimate SP who will provide quality innings over the entire season.  I don't believe Bard or Aceves is going to prove to be durable or effective enough to meet the requirements of a quality SP. If the Sox go into spring training without having added one or two more SPs to the roster they will more than likely finish closer to 4th place than 1st.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    They added two young top quality closers...addition by subtraction with dice-k, a healthy Buccholz, Crawford is in line for a much improved season, as is Youkilis.  The #1 concern was the bullpen and they largely filled that gap.  #4/5 pitchers is a concern, but there is a really good chance that Bard/Aceves at least one of those two will flourish in that role and Dice-K will be back in June to fill the gap if one can't.  Don't count out the Sox adding a quality back of the rotation starter as well.

    To count the red sox out is to look at the glass half empty and focus on last years September. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

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    In Response to Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1001296-andrew-bailey-to-red-sox-boston-again-favorites-in-al-east
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE] nothing wrong with that i guess, but the last time the Sox were named Masters Of The Universe didn't go too well...in the ALE anything can happen, we'll see where the chips fall... 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East?? : If that is all that factors into it, then the Sox will not win, Tampa will.  But the Sox have the best offensive team again.  If they add another dependable starter, say a Kuroda or a trade for Niese, even a Maholm, then I think Aceves stays in the bullpen as the long man/spot starter/7th inning guy he was last year.  And that means the Sox have the best bullpen as well.  Having the best offense and the best bullpen may also be a viable formula to winning...
    Posted by parhunter1[/QUOTE]

    It's not quite either/or.  If the starts are close, we should be okay.  No matter how much some deny it, it is not a coincidence that we missed almost no starts in 2004, and a relatively small amount of missed starts in 2007, and backed up by Lester and Buchholz.  The regular season is largely decided by quality starts.

    Beckett 11-2
    Lester 13-4
    Lackey 4-4
    Buchholz 3-0
    Dice 2-2
    Wake 4-2
    Miller 3-0
    Aceves 1-0
    Weiland 0-1
    Bedard 1-1

    I'm not sure there is anything meaningful or scientific there, but that is our records in QS, 42-16.  That makes us 48-56 in non-QS starts.  We need to cut back our non-rotational starts to something closer to 20 than 52.

    Another way of thinking about it is, we got an ERA of 5.73 from the SPs other than the big 3.  If we lowered that to 4.73, which is certainly doable with a little better health, plus Bard and maybe Oswalt, we'd have saved ~ 53 runs.  Applied to the Pythagorean W/L, that's worth ~ 5 wins.

    In addition, the inability of the non-3 to go 6 IPs, cost the BP ~ 60 innings.  that's a lot of wear and tear.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]Agree the Red Sox have the best in the AL in CF, 1B and 2B.  Don't know about best 8, Bautista in OF, Robinson Cano at 2B, Matt Wieters at C, Curtis Granderson at CF, Mark Teixeira at 1B, Evan Longoria at 3B as a minimum compete as being considered in the in top 8.  I think if the Red Sox are considered the favorites in the A.L. East it will be because of the way Ben Cherington has rebuilt the pitching staff with Andrew Bailey and Mark Menlancon which in turn will free up Aceves and Bard to join the starting rotation.  It is the pitching staff which can be important as the Rays have been proving the last few seasons and the Red Sox may still have the best staff behind the Rays, which, at this point, we don't really know how the Rays may improve the offense.   
    Posted by rgmfick[/QUOTE]
    My comment on putting the best 8 on the field was the 8 positional players as an agregate, not the best at each position. Of course there are better positional players at each position in most instances, but as an entity, I would put the Sox on top.
    Of course the Yankees are a close #2...But I do believe in a bounce back year for C Crawford, and taking into account offense and defense, I still prefer both CC and Ellsbury to Granderson. (goes with out saying over Gardner and Swish as well)
    I will concede the advantage goes to Jeter over Scutaro, and I will assume a draw between a healthy Youk and aging ARod. Same draw for Pedroia/Cano. I give the nod to Agon over Tex. I also see Salty still improving, and feel Martin will regress to norm (including physical breakdowns). Ortiz over Montero, but closer than most think.
    In general, I feel the Sox are the superior team aside form pitching.
    I dont think the Rays are even in the conversation (on the field, excluding pitching). I also think the Angels have numerous holes. Rangers probably the 3rd best 8 on the field  
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    Tampa needs a bat, a 30 homer 100 ribbie bat. Longoria needs protection and like last season when he was hurt there is no one else to carry the team. One writer mentioned Carlos Pena perhaps returning.  If the Rays want to spend the next ten years coming close but never taking the title then I guess standing pat is the way to go.

    I hear good things about Toronto but I have yet to look at their team at any length. I only recently realized their owner is one of the wealthiest people in all baseball.

    Baltimore seems like they love last place but there probably is not much Duquette could do about that in 2012 anyhow. I have faith Duke will turn that team around within 3 years and Angleos will open the wallet one more time, as he is not a spring chicken anymore. The Orioles are literally 3 pitchers and 3 hiters away from even being a .500+ team.

    I have to believe New York is going to miss the play-offs. The starting staff is not impressive to me. The offense should only stagnate or decline. I look forward to New York finishing ten games out.

    The Red Sox have actually made all the right moves this off-season.  My concerns are for pre-existing conditions: Crawford, Beckett, and finally going public in pushing Wakefield out the door.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    Let's not go down that road again.  Being the perceived frontrunner is having a bullseye on your back and we all remember the disaster that September wrought!  In any case with Daniel Bard( a plus 7.00 ERA as a starter in the lower minors) as the presumptive number 4 starter, Buchholz coming back from a serious back injury that sidelined him on June 16th, and the 2 chicken and beer men in the 1 and 2 slots, this pitching staff is full of questions.  At this point the number 5 starter is a complete unknown with several candidates none of whom inspire much enthusiasm or confidence.  It is highly unlikely that Alfredo Aceves will be in the rotation on any regular basis and is generally much more valuable as the long man out of  the bullpen.  Daisake will be back after the all star break and will be highly motivated to do well because he will be a free agent at the end of the 2012 season and is a Scott Borass client.  What the sox will trot out there as a number 5 starter in the first half of 2012 is anyone's guess. 

    I really like how the bullpen is shaping up but with the sox at or near the  $178 million luxury tax threshold our chances of signing even someone like Roy Oswalt is slim.  The Matt Garza trade talk is also pie in the sky because Theo knows all of the truly good prospects in the system that he largely put together over the last 9 years and will not take marginal prospects that other GM's might be convinced to take in a trade.  I do not see Garza coming here.

    This leaves the sox piecing together the likes of Junichi Tazawa, Felix Dubront and Andrew Miller among others to fill number 5 starter innings. They could still take a flyer on a relatively inexpensive low risk high reward free agent starter in January but very few of those types of deals have worked very well in recent years. It is largely a crap shoot and not good odds.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

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    In response to "Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??": [QUOTE]Let's not go down that road again.  Being the perceived frontrunner is having a bullseye on your back and we all remember the disaster that September wrought!  In any case with Daniel Bard( a plus 7.00 ERA as a starter in the lower minors) as the presumptive number 4 starter, Buchholz coming back from a serious back injury that sidelined him on June 16th, and the 2 chicken and beer men in the 1 and 2 slots, this pitching staff is full of questions.  At this point the number 5 starter is a complete unknown with several candidates none of whom inspire much enthusiasm or confidence.  It is highly unlikely that Alfredo Aceves will be in the rotation on any regular basis and is generally much more valuable as the long man out of  the bullpen.  Daisake will be back after the all star break and will be highly motivated to do well because he will be a free agent at the end of the 2012 season and is a Scott Borass client.  What the sox will trot out there as a number 5 starter in the first half of 2012 is anyone's guess.  I really like how the bullpen is shaping up but with the sox at or near the  $178 million luxury tax threshold our chances of signing even someone like Roy Oswalt is slim.  The Matt Garza trade talk is also pie in the sky because Theo knows all of the truly good prospects in the system that he largely put together over the last 9 years and will not take marginal prospects that other GM's might be convinced to take in a trade.  I do not see Garza coming here. This leaves the sox piecing together the likes of Junichi Tazawa, Felix Dubront and Andrew Miller among others to fill number 5 starter innings. They could still take a flyer on a relatively inexpensive low risk high reward free agent starter in January but very few of those types of deals have worked very well in recent years. It is largely a crap shoot and not good odds. Posted by william93063[/QUOTE] I don't understand the references to Bard as a starter years ago when the Sox were trying to alter his arm slot from his comfort level? Bards struggles as a starter were control issues due to the change. Once the Sox allowed him to revert to his comfort level he was back to his dominant self. Other than last year, Aceves has always been a starter Other than Tampa, who isn't piecing together number 5,6,7 starting pitching? It appears on paper that the pen is better than last year. Team was trending to 100 wins as late as August. Assuming health with Youk, Buch and Bailey, I see no reason why this team can't be stronger than last years team.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??

    In Response to Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??:
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Bosox favorites again in the A.L. East??": I don't understand the references to Bard as a starter years ago when the Sox were trying to alter his arm slot from his comfort level? Bards struggles as a starter were control issues due to the change. Once the Sox allowed him to revert to his comfort level he was back to his dominant self. Other than last year, Aceves has always been a starter Other than Tampa, who isn't piecing together number 5,6,7 starting pitching? It appears on paper that the pen is better than last year. Team was trending to 100 wins as late as August. Assuming health with Youk, Buch and Bailey, I see no reason why this team can't be stronger than last years team.
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

    The reference to Bard is that is what his numbers tell us altered arm slot or not.  His track record as a paid professional starting pitcher is abysmal.  One would hope that his work with pitching coaches and other baseball people would help him develop as this would usually help anyone who has his live arm.  All I am saying is this is an unknown quantity.  He has never been streched out to prepare to be a starting pitcher in over 4 years that is reality.

    As for us being "better" than last season Josh Beckett's work ethic down the stretch was embarrassing to say the least.  His comments about his priorities being changed because of his new marriage and young child are also troubling.  Would I ever fault someone for assuming responsibilities as the head of a household?  Absolutely not but his comments indicate an either or mentality that suggests he sees his baseballl life as somehow less important now and that troubles me.  You are totally convinced that Clay Buchholz rather slight build will recover fully from a stress fracture in his lower back?  That is an indication of a possibility of poor metabolism of macrominerals that are involved in bone building.  If so someone should take a good look at his diet for a possibility of food allergies or other digestive issues that could be inhibiting his ability to properly absorb calcium, magnesium and phosphorus.  This might not be an issue but a young seemingly healthy 20 something developing a stress fracture is a concern to me anyway.
     

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