BP Dilemma

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    BP Dilemma

    Tito is obviously staying too long with his starters recently. Lester yesterday and Lackey tonight. Both were clearly not on their A-game, but had enough to put the team in a position to compete/win if Tito had recognized their limitations.

    So the question is: Just how much faith at this point does Tito have in this BP that Theo constructed? The bridge to Paps has been shaky all year. Jenks/Wheeler are on sabbatical. Bard is supposed to be groomed as the closer. Yet in his high-leverage spots this year, OPP BA against him is .318, with an .893 OPS. He's 0-3.
    Bard is excelling in mid-low leverage situations.

    I took an earlier stance that it's time to screw this role BS and stay with the hot hand. If a guy is cutting it in the 7th, stay with him for the 8th (taking pitch count into consideration). It looks like Tito will now have to mix/match with Bard/Hill vs. NY to get it to the 9th as nobody else is a realistic choice going into the NY series.

    The FO will have some interesting decisions to make once Wheeler/Jenks return, as Hill is out of options, and Oki is still scary to use the way he was once deployed.

    The 2012 scenario is even scarier if Bard continues to be inconsistent. Do the Sox pay Paps? Can they and still be below the tax threshold?

    Ask yourself this question: Where would this struggling team be without Paps this year?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    The season isn't even 1/4 over and relievers sample sizes at this point are very small.
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    That doesn't alter the fact that it needs to be addressed.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    The season isn't even 1/4 over and relievers sample sizes at this point are very small.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Agreed. Shut up, harness.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    BP rebuilding is not easy. We could go out and trade for 3 right now, and they could all turn from gold to dust overnight. The guys we have are going to have to return to form. We may only need 2-3 out of the 10-14 we have to step it up.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from billsrul. Show billsrul's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    BP rebuilding is not easy. We could go out and trade for 3 right now, and they could all turn from gold to dust overnight. The guys we have are going to have to return to form. We may only need 2-3 out of the 10-14 we have to step it up.
    Posted by moonslav59


    This, and your first comment about how relievers can easily fail for quarter or even half-seasons just due to variance.  Relievers pitch less innings than starters, and a reliever's performance in one season has very little coorelation with how he pitches the nexxt season.  Outside of the top 50 guys in MLB (maybe, you could probably cut that to 25 really), relievers are incredibly volatile.... Going with the hot hand also is not necessarily a great solution, since  any MLB reliever can put together a few good performances in a row; it doesn't mean that the next performance would be any better.

    In conclusion, bullpens are a crapshoot.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    I have been saying this for many years. It's all a gamble, or as you prefer: "crapshoot". 


    I think the list is not 50 or 25 or even 5.


    It is one.


    Rivera.
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    Bill, my statement "going with the hot hand" refers to an individual game, not a multiple. For example, Tito takes Hill out after he easily retires the first two hitters. Notjust lefty hitters. Why? I can't believe he'd do it because of prior match-ups. The SS is too small, and Hill is a different pitcher now.

    I don't care who the reliever is, if his pitch count is low or reasonable, and he's very effective: STAY WITH HIM!

    There are no guarantees, but current form is usually the over-riding factor.


    Moon: I'm not suggesting any trades for other relievers. I'm saying that Tito has got to deploy a different approach to compensate for short-comings.
    He's too stuck on role definition.
    He's letting SS match-ups dictate over common sense.
    He's over-playing this "bring him in since he's warming up/don't use him if he's warmed up more than once" BS. These guys aren't paper dolls. They aren't as  fragile as glass.

    Bard is a big key, and he's gonna fall out of favor unless he picks it up.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from billsrul. Show billsrul's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    Bill , my statement "going with the hot hand" refers to an individual game, not a multiple. For example, Tito takes Hill out after he easily retires the first two hitters. Not just lefty hitters. Why? I can't believe he'd do it because of prior match-ups. The SS is too small, and Hill is a different pitcher now. I don't care who the reliever is, if his pitch count is low or reasonable, and he's very effective: STAY WITH HIM! There are no guarantees, but current form is usually the over-riding factor. Moon : I'm not suggesting any trades for other relievers. I'm saying that Tito has got to deploy a different approach to compensate for short-comings. He's too stuck on role definition. He's letting SS match-ups dictate over common sense. He's over-playing this "bring him in since he's warming up/don't use him if he's warmed up more than once" BS. These guys aren't paper dolls. They aren't as  fragile as glass. Bard is a big key, and he's gonna fall out of favor unless he picks it up.
    Posted by harness


    I'm not sure I always agree with the "stay with the hot hand in the same game" theory.  Just because a guy throws one good inning doesn't mean the next inning will be good.  I mean, we've all seen it happen where a guy throws an inning, looks good, then comes out for the 2nd inning and really struggles.

    That said, I think that the Sox could get a lot more innings out of their bullpen if they used guys for multiple innings.  So I would support more multi-inning usage from that standpoint.  It really depends on the exact in-game situation...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    heres a thought, maybe dont waste a bullpen spot on a guy like wakefield who is useless and only pitches in blowout situations. Maybe if we had a guy who is useful in his spot then we would not have lost a game like the one against the jays due to the fact that we would not need to leave lackey in so long due to the pen being tired. Also, coma needs to learn how to get the most out of the pen and use each pitcher more effectively. He brings in aceves 2 or 3 games ago for .2 of an inning in a game i believe that was tied then yanks him. This is a guy who is capable of pitcher 3 maybe 4 innings but instead you take him out after 2 outs and he is done for the night. I will say it now and say it again, coma is not a good manager. he does nothing that a good manager does. he does not know how to manage important game situations, does not play small ball, does not know when to take pitchers out of the game, and honestly just does not exemplify any skills of good manager. 
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    heres a thought, maybe dont waste a bullpen spot on a guylike wakefieldwho is useless and only pitches in blowout situations. Maybe if we had a guy who is useful in his spot then we would not have lost a game like the one against the jays due to the fact that we would not need to leave lackey in so long due to the pen being tired. Also, coma needs to learn how to get the most out of the pen and use each pitcher more effectively. He brings in aceves 2 or 3 games ago for .2 of an inning in a game i believe that was tied then yanks him. This is a guy who is capable of pitcher 3 maybe 4 innings but instead you take him out after 2 outs and he is done for the night. I will say it now and say it again, coma is not a good manager. he does nothing that a good manager does. he does not know how to manage important game situations, does not play small ball, does not know when to take pitchers out of the game, and honestly just does not exemplify any skills of good manager. 
    Posted by redsoxpride34


    Oh yeah. It's on Wakefield, the guy who out-pitched the reining CY Young winner. The guy Tito never uses in any meaningful BP role unless he's the last body standing.

    Let's not think about Jenks and his 9.35 ERA, or Wheeler's 11+ ERA. Let's not address Bard's inefficiency in high-level situations.

    Let's blame it on Wake!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    Posts: 490
    First: 6/14/2009
    Last: 5/11/2011
    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    The season isn't even 1/4 over and relievers sample sizes at this point are very small.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Agreed. Shut up, harness.

    Post of the Day.
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    From one banned nut-case to another...
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    Moon: I'm not suggesting any trades for other relievers. I'm saying that Tito has got to deploy a different approach to compensate for short-comings.

    I agree, in theory. I think Tito is very much into following traditional philosophies and not daring to break the paradigms. However, he doesn't have many options. Maybe he could use Bard in more low leverage situations oras the 7th inning guy and give others a chance to pitch the 8th, but if he tried this, and it didn't work, just imagine the outrage.

    He's too stuck on role definition.

    I've been saying this for a long time, and it goes beyond the pitchers.

    He's letting SS match-ups dictate over common sense.
    He's over-playing this "bring him in since he's warming up/don't use him if he's warmed up more than once" BS. These guys aren't paper dolls. They aren't as  fragile as glass.

    Agreed.

    Bard is a big key, and he's gonna fall out of favor unless he picks it up.

    I think Bard is too good to continue blowing close games.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    heres a thought, maybe dont waste a bullpen spot on a guy like wakefield who is useless and only pitches in blowout situations. Maybe if we had a guy who is useful in his spot then we would not have lost a game like the one against the jays due to the fact that we would not need to leave lackey in so long due to the pen being tired.

    It never ceases to amaze me how so many blame the pen woes on Wake.
    1) Tito chooses to use Wake in the role of mopup/spot starter.
    2) Even if he is continued to be used as almost all mopup, he still is eating innings and saving the other arms in the BP by pitching multiple innings.
    3) He's currently #6 on the team in IP.
    4) There are 6 pitchers on the Sox with worse ERA's than Wake.
    5) There are 8 pitchers with worse WHIP.
    6) We've used 17 pitchers so far, so going by either stat, Wake is in the top 11. It's time to start looking at some of these other worse non-performers.

    Also, coma needs to learn how to get the most out of the pen and use each pitcher more effectively. He brings in aceves 2 or 3 games ago for .2 of an inning in a game i believe that was tied then yanks him. This is a guy who is capable of pitcher 3 maybe 4 innings but instead you take him out after 2 outs and he is done for the night.

    I agree. I think Aceves deserves more work and more high leverage chances.

    I will say it now and say it again, coma is not a good manager. he does nothing that a good manager does. he does not know how to manage important game situations, does not play small ball, does not know when to take pitchers out of the game, and honestly just does not exemplify any skills of good manager. 

    He's a pamperer, and some think that is what is needed on a team full of stars. He needs to light some fires. A benching or the cutting of a vet might shake the rest of them up. I thought it was interesting that it took Theo to deliver thepep talk that ended the slide. I thought that as part of the manager's job. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    Smile
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    heres a thought, maybe dont waste a bullpen spot on a guy like wakefield who is useless and only pitches in blowout situations. Maybe if we had a guy who is useful in his spot then we would not have lost a game like the one against the jays due to the fact that we would not need to leave lackey in so long due to the pen being tired. It never ceases to amaze me how so many blame the pen woes on Wake. 1) Tito chooses to use Wake in the role of mopup/spot starter. 2) Even if he is continued to be used as almost all mopup, he still is eating innings and saving the other arms in the BP by pitching multiple innings. 3) He's currently #6 on the team in IP. 4) There are 6 pitchers on the Sox with worse ERA's than Wake. 5) There are 8 pitchers with worse WHIP. 6) We've used 17 pitchers so far, so going by either stat, Wake is in the top 11. It's time to start looking at some of these other worse non-performers. Also, coma needs to learn how to get the most out of the pen and use each pitcher more effectively. He brings in aceves 2 or 3 games ago for .2 of an inning in a game i believe that was tied then yanks him. This is a guy who is capable of pitcher 3 maybe 4 innings but instead you take him out after 2 outs and he is done for the night. I agree. I think Aceves deserves more work and more high leverage chances. I will say it now and say it again, coma is not a good manager. he does nothing that a good manager does. he does not know how to manage important game situations, does not play small ball, does not know when to take pitchers out of the game, and honestly just does not exemplify any skills of good manager.  He's a pamperer, and some think that is what is needed on a team full of stars. He needs to light some fires. A benching or the cutting of a vet might shake the rest of them up. I thought it was interesting that it took Theo to deliver the pep talk that ended the slide. I thought that as part of the manager's job.  
    Posted by moonslav59


    Yeah, that's an interesting point. That is Tito's job. I totally agree that he has to get away from approaches that aren't effective. He has much less margin for error with this current pen. And he's slow to make this realization...or adjusting to them.

    It's also possible that Farrell had more input as a sounding board than C. Young, who's a relative newbie. Tito/Farrell go back a long  time.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    He shouldn't need any help at this point in his career.
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    A manager definitely has a reliance on his coaches. I think losing his friend Mills has had an impact. As has promoting Hale and watching Bogar continually
    mis-judge plays in front of him.

    He and Farrell were tight. When you lose that, it can affect decision-making and confidence.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    Yes, advice helps, bit has Tito learned anything about picking a good 3B coach?

    I think each is worse that his predecessor.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kat-b2. Show Kat-b2's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    I have said this beforeand I will continue to say it, Tito is nothing without Farrell. He was the brains of this outfit and Tito won't hurt  the players feelings especially his favorites and you all know who they are..... Get a manager that will manage a game, run, steal, bunt, use his bullpen........ Get a good manager before we are so far out of this east race       k
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from plinny. Show plinny's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    Why are certain pitchers allowed to throw the game away while others are pulled while succeeding. Why does the starter have to get through 5th. Why must we wait untill the eleventh hour to see a pinch hitter or a hit and run. Maybe if the team was asked, no told to perform some of the little things they could pull a few of these tight games out instead of relying on station to station all the time. Francona has never had or tried to game manage past the little league level and it shows. And as far as the two W.S. titles go, all he had to do was keep his hands of the wheel and enjoy the ride. Oh yeah, and enable the crap out of Manny.
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    In Response to Re: BP Dilemma:
    I have said this beforeand I will continue to say it, Tito is nothing without Farrell. He was the brains of this outfit and Tito won't hurt  the players feelings especially his favorites and you all know who they are..... Get a manager that will manage a game, run, steal, bunt, use his bullpen........ Get a good manager before we are so far out of this east race       k
    Posted by Kat-b2


    I believe the team did quite well before Farrell ever got here.
    But losing him didn't help any.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Girardi-Inept. Show Girardi-Inept's posts

    Re: BP Dilemma

    Girardi apparently didn't go with the "hot hand" or "cold hand" in a game situation tonight. He left Nova in there until the score was 8-0. That is unforgiveable.
     
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    Re: BP Dilemma

    The "hot hand" is irrelevant in a blowout.
    That's when you simply save UR pen.
    Understandable considering their upcoming series...
     
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