Re: Bradley and Ellsbury, 2013 and 2007
posted at 9/18/2013 10:23 PM EDT
In response to maxbialystock's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to GoUconn13's comment:
Go back and compare JE and JB at similar ages and at similar levels on the farm. Saying they were "not even close" is an overstatement.
JBJ is not even close as JE when they were at the same age. JE have batted around.300 from minor league toward to today. So therefore, he is a much talent player than JBJ and will alway be. I think JBJ is more like Gardner of the Yankees.
Seriously, Ellsbury have not gone on the decline yet. He is still going to have another 4 to 5 good baseball years ahead of him!! Why risk to get rid of him and bring in JBJ. What if JBJ is a busted player and who will back him up. I do not want Victorino playing in CF with the hamstring problem he is having now.
Plus JBJ batted 78 times this year and only have one stolen base. That is not a good sign if you want to see him to be the next year lead off hitter!!
I am telling you all, Boston will be so aggressive on resiging Ellsbury. Then use JBJ as a trade bait to make a trade for valuable player in return.
age 21 A- (165 PA) .850 OPS
age 22 A+/AA (281/225) .808 OPS
age 23 AA/AAA *83/401) .811 OPS
age 21 A-/A (25/15 PAs) .686 OPS in just 40 PAs total
age 22 A+/AA (304/271) .911 OPS
age 23 AAA (374) .842 OPS
A- .510 (25 PAs)
A .933 (15 PAs)
Both were in A+ and AA at age 22, but JBJ was in AAA all of age 23, while Jacoby spent some time in AA at age 23.
Jacoby had better AA numbers (.906 to .809),
but JBJ had better AAA numbers (.842 to .743).
The small sample size major league numbers in their first years do have meaning, but certainly not enough to make any diffinitive judgement about what they were or are to become.
You and I may not be able to make a definitive judgment, but the Sox were capable of doing that or at least felt they had too. After Ellsbury's good showing in 2007--granted, a small sample--he was a regular in 2008. The Sox seem to have done something similar after Iglesias weak hitting last Aug-Sep--they signed Drew for a season, then Farrell made it clear he would stick with him. When Iglesias had a bad hitting month in July, the Sox did not hesitate to pull the trigger on the Peavy trade. It helped that Drew was playing and is playing well and Bogaerts was/is in the wings.
And I think the same thing may be happening with Bradley, who has not looked good at the plate. Yes, small sample size, but an indicator. Plus they have watched him a lot at AA and AAA, in batting practice, etc. Most importantly, they need to make a decision about Ellsbury, and right now his stock has to be rising for Boston. He may still leave because of the price tag, but my point is the front office can't always wait another year or so to be sure about a AAA prospect like Bradley.
First of all, I really do not think they traded Iglesias because he slumped, which you certainly imply but might not actually mean. They did trade him because Detroit wanted him, and Detroit was willing to give up the player the White Sox wanted for Peavy. I am sure Drew’s play in 2013 and their faith in Bogaerts were both contributing factors, and probably bigger ones than Iglesias’ slump, which everyone knew was inevitable for a variety of reasons.
However the Sox FO feels about Bradley, I am sure will not be reflected by the fans. Too many want immediate impact from a rookie – the next Mike Trout, although many will actually “settle” for the next Wil Myers. However, in a lot of cases it can come down to patience. And I am not talking about the kind of patience the team had with Pedroia, where after like a month of Mendozing, the guy morphed into an MVP candidate. People talk about his slow start like it was some sort of ordeal and the beginning of his career was devoid of hope. The guy did win ROY! He had a bad April. That's all.
Sometimes players take longer, like a season or two. Sometimes, longer. For example, over the first 5 years of his career, Roberto Clemente hit .282 / .311 / .395. Nice, but no one was thinkng "Cooperstown!!" at that time, I am very certain. Over the next 11 seasons, he hit .330 / .377 / .504. Imagine if the Pirates gave up on him after 89 plate appearances.
I am not old enough to ever see Clemente play, but it would be interesting to know what Pirate fans thought of those first 5 years. I am not saying Bradley deserves 5 full seasons, but it does not always happen right away…