Re: Cafardo is right
posted at 7/25/2013 5:06 PM EDT
Lets just assume for a second that we add a starter like Jake Peavy. This would remove a quality starter so far in Brandon Workman from the rotation and put him in the bull pen. When Buch comes back it removes another starter[Dempster?] and puts him in the bull pen. And when we play in the playoffs another starter would be moved to the bull pen[Doubront?]. My two points being that first, I don't personally see the need for a starter unless there is something we don't know. And the need for another reliever is questionable if we do add a starter.
With that being said, I like Jake Peavy. He is a quality number 2 starter. He just turned 32 so he isn't old. His contract is short but large. 14.5 for this season and next. A 3rd year player option for 15 million that he will not get to and if he does, we will want him to anyway. And 4 million of deffered money down the road. So basically 16.5 million a year, but pro rated this year. Not cheap, but still worth it.
This season, his one injury was a broken rib, which seemed to hurt his stats big time. Take his 2 starts at the time of the rib injury out and he would have an ERA around 3.00 this season. He has been very good returning from the injury in two starts. His K-BB rate this year is his best of his career. He is a 3.5-5.0 WAR pitcher per 200 innings pretty much every year of his career. He has just missed a lot of games. He pitches in the American league in a HR park. As a right handed fly ball pitcher, Fenway might actually be better for him.
On the negative side, although he does have playoff experience, he sucked in the playoffs. He is very injury prone although I think he is fairly healthy at this time. His velocity this year is down below 90 mph. He is a pitcher like Dempster, not a thrower. No upside to him.
From a value stand point, having him 2 years instead of 1 is a plus. He should be worth his 14.5 next year, plus he would likely be worth a QO of 14 million, giving you the 1st round draft pick compensation value. With him being arguably as good as Garza, while getting him for 2 years, plus the better then 50-50 odds of a compensation pick makes him a sligthly more valuable trade commodity IMO, although his high contract offsets those advantages somewhat. That doesn't mean I give up more then Texas did for Garza because Texas got ripped off.
If we trade for a pitcher, he might be the guy to trade for.