Re: Cardinals Will Not Pay Much for S. Drew
posted at 10/2/2013 8:55 PM EDT
In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
In response to S5's comment:
2) I agree completely that Bogart's WAR will be higher in any given year than Iggy's and it's because of the way WAR is calculated. WAR is an almost entirely offensive metric in that of the six components the first five are offense-related and the sixth is a positional adjustment. The positional adjustment is performed by adjusting the total of the first five by a given number depending on the player's position. In short, it assumes that one SS is as good as another and gives no weight to an outstanding defensive player over another at the same position, i.e. it assumes Bogarts and Iggy are equal defensively. They're not. But WAR by it's nature gives preference to the better offensive player. Which Bogarts is. hence, higher WAR for Bogarts.
This isn't correct. Mark Belanger, the ultimate good-field no-hit SS, had 7 seasons with a WAR of 3 or higher, including a 5.6 in 1976.
Fangraphs has Victorino listed as the top RF'er in MLB with a 5.6 WAR. Was this based on his offense? Not hardly. I actually think WAR over-values defense at some positions and may undervalues SS defense.
On the Fangraphs' value page, they have Shane ranked 14th at +11.8 and 2nd on fielding at +24.0 (and +3.0 base running).
Gerardo Parra is ranked 4th in RF WAR with a measley .268 BA and .726 OPS.
WAR also rewards the player who plays more.
Out of 29 MLB SSs with 350+ PAs, Drew ranks 7th in WAR at 3.4.
Iggy ranks 16th at +1.8.
Drew has about 120 more PAs.
On the value page, surprisingly Drew ranks 8th on offense at +5.1 and Iggy 10th at +0.9. Drew is -1.3 on baserunning and Iggy is -1.2. Drew is actually helped as much by his fielding than his hitting (and more so when compared to Iggy).
Drew is 9th at +5.3 (remember he was +5.1 on offense).
Iggy is 15th at +0.7 (and was +0.9 on offense).
The fact that Drew played 1093 innings at SS and Iggy only 572. That's the main reason Drew has a higher fielding ranking. While Drew has fielded well this year, Iggy ranks #5 out of 33 SSs in UZR/150 at +8.3. Drew ranks 9th at +6.7.
Of the 37 SSs with 750 innings since 2012:
2) Iggy +18.3
5) Ryan +10.4
22) Drew -1.4
26) Lowrie -2.9
33) Furcal -11.2
36) Jeter -17.8