Career OPS

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    I like Napoli, but I am not sure what the list tells us.  7 different players, with most of their careers  split between different parks,  covering such diverse positions as 1B, 2B, catcher, and CF, with guys ranging in age from in their prime, to final contract, to retirement.

    More importantly, do you see Napoli as a 1B or a catcher?




    The position that he plays is not more important than his stick.  The comparison was to show that Mike Napoli's career OPS is extremely close to Adrian Gonzalez's.  It was to show that its substantially higher than Pedey's and blows Lowell's out of the water.

    It was to show that he is a very good hitter (as opposed to a very good hitter as a C).  We need this bat in our lineup. 



    The stick is important, but keep in mind that he had only an .812 last year, which in mundane as a 1B.  Even his career .863 is merely good at 1B, as opposed to great as a catcher.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    It's also not so clear that all hitters will improve due to playing in Fenway. I remember all the talk about how great AGon would do by both moving out of PETCO and moving into Fenway.

     

    I even said, "He may hit 50 HRs".

     ... LOL!

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    I don't like the idea of signing up Napoli for too long a term; thus clogging up a roster spot.  However, if he's signed up for three or four years, he could slide into the DH role after Papi's term is over if another first baseman emerges or there's an opportunity to pounce on a free agency signing to fill a necessary offensive production gap.  

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    ... having Napoli also allows us to PH for our weak catcher vs the wrong handed pitcher and not risk getting burned if the back-up catcher gets hurt late in a game.

    His ability to slide to catcher in NL parks is also a plus (10 games in 2013).

    These may seem like minor points, but remember having AGon in RF ... get the picture?

    Papi could also get hurt, as could Salty or Ross.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:

    we are looking to rebuild not to get older.

    That leaves out Ellsbury and Wastefield and Varitek and Ortiz. You stooge.




    Your the only one that keeps mentioning Tek and Wake...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    Looks as if all 3 current catcher may still be here in 2013...

    “All three could contribute to our team; I expect that to be the case,” Cherington said. “We have to see what happens.”

    “Salty has earned that right based on the last few years,”(to be the starter) Cherington said. “He has done a good job.”

    Cherington said there is “no consideration” to Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway playing another position.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Looks as if all 3 current catcher may still be here in 2013...

    “All three could contribute to our team; I expect that to be the case,” Cherington said. “We have to see what happens.”

    “Salty has earned that right based on the last few years,”(to be the starter) Cherington said. “He has done a good job.”

    Cherington said there is “no consideration” to Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway playing another position.



    Did I miss some statement or something?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Looks as if all 3 current catcher may still be here in 2013...

    “All three could contribute to our team; I expect that to be the case,” Cherington said. “We have to see what happens.”

    “Salty has earned that right based on the last few years,”(to be the starter) Cherington said. “He has done a good job.”

    Cherington said there is “no consideration” to Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway playing another position.



    Did I miss some statement or something?




    I posted a thread about this...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    I read the globe article, and saw some hints that ben may trade Salty or Lava, but other statements that show otherwise... typical GM doublespeak.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I read the globe article, and saw some hints that ben may trade Salty or Lava, but other statements that show otherwise... typical GM doublespeak.




    Sounds like hes leaning towards what I suggested at first, which makes sense.

    Lav is not ready to be a starter in MLB. Its obvious. Having a catcher the pitchers are familiar and comfprtable with is needed, which salty provides. Ross is a dependable BU with great defense and a decent bat.

    It makes a lot of sense for 2013 and the future.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I read the globe article, and saw some hints that ben may trade Salty or Lava, but other statements that show otherwise... typical GM doublespeak.




     

    Or, typical media out-of-context quoting. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    Napoli should be one of the Red Sox top targets.  There aren't a whole lot of other first basemen available who are above average offensively.  After Napoli you've got Laroche, and then you're looking at Berkman.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    A trade for K Morales or M Morse might be the best route.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    drewski....excellent suggestion...we have a hole at iB and need someone to fill in a catrcher for just a few games a yr...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to georom4's comment:

    drewski....excellent suggestion...we have a hole at iB and need someone to fill in a catrcher for just a few games a yr...




    Thanks Georom.  People who are saying that Napoli would not make a significant offensive upgrade, please check this out:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/1b/sort/OPS

    Napoli's career OPS is .863.  If he hit that last year, he would have had the fourth highest OPS among first baseman.  As mentioned earlier AGON's career OPS is .877.  

    I dont think its unreasonable to expect Naps OPS to get better once he moves away from the physical drain of catching and moving to a ballpark where he has a career OPS > 1.000.

    As mentioned, his career OPS is higher than Morneau's.  Thats despite the physical drain of catching.  I understand that his OPS was .810 last year; however, due to his incredibly low BABIP (credit: Boom) , this was partly caused by bad luck.  He also had a nagging hamstring injury.

    He isnt an average hitter for a first baseman.  He is an excellent hitter.  The fact that he can slide to C in interleague games is valuable.  The fact that he can play C if there is an injury/trade/slump also provides value. 

    He draws a ton of walk and has legitimate 30 HR power.  He's a righty pull hitter.  This is exact mold of player we go after.  I honestly think that he is a bargain at market.  AGON is worth 22M at market, and its not unreasonable to think that Naps will outslug AGON over the next four years. 

    He has a career OPS at Fenway > 1.000.  We've had luck signing guys w/ Fenway swings (Beltre, Lowell, Ross).  He can be the next one.  We could then use the prospects saved (by signing Naps to play first as opposed to trading for a 1B), to trade for a corner outfielder (where the FA market is terrible). 

    I dont get why we're willing to pay AGON's .877 bat 22M/yr until he's 37, but not Napoli's .863 bat 12-14M / yr until he's 35 (assuming a four year deal).  He's right on AGON's heals regarding OPS, and with a move to Fenway + getting away from catching every day, he may pass him.

    FOr all of those who are saying that he isn't a very good hitter for a 1B, please name me 5 1B who you think are better hitters.

    Here's my list of 1B who are significantly better hitters than Naps: Pujols, Fielder, Morse (end list)

    PS: to those of you who are saying that trading for Morse is an option, I agree.  However, I cant see the Nats trading him.  ANd if they did, it would be a lot of prospects for 1 yr of Morse.  Dont think you could get him cheap.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    Drew, you make some very good points as to why the Red Sox should sign Napoli. I like the fact that he can catch if needed, I like his ability to draw walks, and his swing does seem to be well suited for Fenway.

    That said, I'd be hesitant to sign him for the four year contract that he is likely to receive. His 2011 OPS of 1.046, the only year of the last 4 that he has been above his career average (credit Moon), was as much caused by good luck (BABIP .344) as his low 2012 OPS was caused by bad luck.

    I am also concerned about the huge spike in his K rate. There was an article on Fangraphs about the quality and quantity of his contact last year. Not only was he striking out more, but the article stated that the distance and velocity of his home runs decreased last year, as did his rate of extra base hits. All of this suggests that the quality of contact that Napoli is making is not as good as in previous years, which could explain the lower BABIP. It could be injury related, but it could also be due to aging.

    Additionally, Napoli's defense at both 1B and catcher leave something to be desired.

    I am not necessarily opposed to signing him. As I mentioned, you make some very good points as to why he should be signed. I'm just not very comfortable about the length of the deal being more than 2 years.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    Drew, you make some very good points as to why the Red Sox should sign Napoli. I like the fact that he can catch if needed, I like his ability to draw walks, and his swing does seem to be well suited for Fenway.

    That said, I'd be hesitant to sign him for the four year contract that he is likely to receive. His 2011 OPS of 1.046, the only year of the last 4 that he has been above his career average (credit Moon), was as much caused by good luck (BABIP .344) as his low 2012 OPS was caused by bad luck.

    I am also concerned about the huge spike in his K rate. There was an article on Fangraphs about the quality and quantity of his contact last year. Not only was he striking out more, but the article stated that the distance and velocity of his home runs decreased last year, as did his rate of extra base hits. All of this suggests that the quality of contact that Napoli is making is not as good as in previous years, which could explain the lower BABIP. It could be injury related, but it could also be due to aging.

    Additionally, Napoli's defense at both 1B and catcher leave something to be desired.

    I am not necessarily opposed to signing him. As I mentioned, you make some very good points as to why he should be signed. I'm just not very comfortable about the length of the deal being more than 2 years.



    Kimmi, I don't disagree that 4 years is too long.  But as you say that's what he's likely to get.  Napoli at least could be a good DH option in years 3 and 4.

    If not Napoli, then who?  The only other free agent first baseman that seems attractive is LaRoche, and he's likely to get overpaid too. 

    If we take the prudent route and pass on Napoli and LaRoche, who plays first base for us next year?

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    We now have 5 catchers on the 40-man roster:

    Salty, Lavarnway, Ross, Butler, Vasquez

    I suspect someone is leaving really soon. My guess is it will be Salty. Although, like Reddick, I want him to get one more year to see if he can put it all together, it appears hes likely the odd man out...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    Can't understand RS fans? Keep wishing for guys like Vmart or Napoli, as if getting these guys will help us win a WS ring next year. Good Luck w/ that. Ben C should be looking at other teams organizations and find the teams that are loaded in one area [Pitching] and try to find GOOD YOUNG talent and look at 2014-15 that the RS will contend for a ring again. Look at Mariners, have Miguel Montero at catcher. Would they be willing to make Mike Zunino available [3rd overall pick in 2012 draft] who just finished destroying AFL pitching, this kid is going to be a stud catcher. Anyone remember the Heatcliff Slocumb trade when we got 2 unheralded players named Lowe and Varitek, or the trade the Mets made when they traded C.Beltran at deadline w/ expiring contract and were able to pick up a pitching stud like Matt Harvey. These are the deals RS should be trying to make, not aquiring 30+ players [Napoli/Vmart/Hamilton] Red Sox should be looking for players who will be great players 2 years from now, not players who will be 2 more years past there prime. I look at RS roster and everyone is available except those that I believe will still be productive players in 2 yrs [Buchholz/Doubront/Pedroia/Middlebrooks/Kalish/Lavarnway/Bradley/Webster/De La Rosa/ Barnes/Boegarts/Cecchini/Swihart] the rest of team should be available. If you feel you can't sign Ellsbury then trade him. Teams that have a very good 1b, see if that team has a young stud 1b in minors whose path is blocked, those are the guys we should be going after! 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Can't understand RS fans? Keep wishing for guys like Vmart or Napoli, as if getting these guys will help us win a WS ring next year. Good Luck w/ that.  



    gary, I'm somewhat sympathetic to your view, but I don't think it's completely realistic.  Sox fans just endured a 69-93 debacle and the third straight year out of the playoffs.  Can you ask them to sit patiently through 2 more years of bad baseball, while paying some of the highest ticket prices in baseball, in the name of having a great team to look forward to in 2015?  I don't think that works.  Signing a guy like Napoli won't bring a ring, but it does instantly make you a better team and a better team to watch.  The same as signing Ortiz did.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    Drew, you make some very good points as to why the Red Sox should sign Napoli. I like the fact that he can catch if needed, I like his ability to draw walks, and his swing does seem to be well suited for Fenway.

    That said, I'd be hesitant to sign him for the four year contract that he is likely to receive. His 2011 OPS of 1.046, the only year of the last 4 that he has been above his career average (credit Moon), was as much caused by good luck (BABIP .344) as his low 2012 OPS was caused by bad luck.

    I am also concerned about the huge spike in his K rate. There was an article on Fangraphs about the quality and quantity of his contact last year. Not only was he striking out more, but the article stated that the distance and velocity of his home runs decreased last year, as did his rate of extra base hits. All of this suggests that the quality of contact that Napoli is making is not as good as in previous years, which could explain the lower BABIP. It could be injury related, but it could also be due to aging.

    Additionally, Napoli's defense at both 1B and catcher leave something to be desired.

    I am not necessarily opposed to signing him. As I mentioned, you make some very good points as to why he should be signed. I'm just not very comfortable about the length of the deal being more than 2 years.



    Fair points, but I'd still pull the trigger.  Here's why:

    His 2011 OPS of 1.046, the only year of the last 4 that he has been above his career average (credit Moon), was as much caused by good luck (BABIP .344) as his low 2012 OPS was caused by bad luck.

    I agree that the 1.046 (2011 OPS)contained good luck , and the .812 (2012 OPS) contained bad luck.  If we meet in the middle, we come to .929.  That would make rank him third in OPS among 1B.  I honestly feel that it is conservative to meet in the middle.  We could theoretically skew it up to account for the nagging hamstring injury that drove the 2012 (and therefore the 2 year avg) down.  We are also not accounting for park factor.  When we signed Adrian G to a 22M/yr for seven yrs (through the age of 35), he was coming off a year when his OPS was .904.  I dont think 4 yrs for Napoli at 12-14 M (through the age of 35) is too much.

    The contract that it would require to sign Napoli is 43% shorter (assuming four years), will take him to the same age and is 36% less per year (assuming 14M/yr).  Meanwhile, they have very comparable bats (from an OPS standpt).

    I am also concerned about the huge spike in his K rate. There was an article on Fangraphs about the quality and quantity of his contact last year. Not only was he striking out more, but the article stated that the distance and velocity of his home runs decreased last year, as did his rate of extra base hits. All of this suggests that the quality of contact that Napoli is making is not as good as in previous years, which could explain the lower BABIP. It could be injury related, but it could also be due to aging.

    What is more believable to you?  A guy with an OPS of .880 (OPS prior to going into last year), coming off a season with an MVP caliber OPS, suddenly plummeted to .812 at 30 yrs old because of extreme premateure overnight aging or that a well documented nagging hamstring injury drove the number down?  If we was 33/34, I would tend to agree with you.  But he was only 30/31 last year.  Also: many of his early years , he wasnt playing everyday (defensive reasons).  So if anything, he has less wear and tear than a 30/31 yr old otherwise would.  Side note: The career .863 OPS includes many "coming off the bench" at-bats, which is noteworthy and impressive.  

    Also, if the .812 OPS was due to some aging, this can be remedied by having him play most of his games as a first baseman.

    At the end of the day, his OPS is a tick shy of AGONs.  I would expect him to outperform this number in a four year deal because: a) playing 1B = less fatigue (as opposed to Catching), b) the .863 contains off the bench stats, c) He has a lifetime OPS > 1,000 at Fenway where he would play half his games.

    The people saying that he isnt a great hitter for a 1B are wrong.  There are only 3 first baseman in the league who are unquestionably better hitters than Napoli (Fielder, Pujols, Morse)

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Can't understand RS fans? Keep wishing for guys like Vmart or Napoli, as if getting these guys will help us win a WS ring next year. Good Luck w/ that. Ben C should be looking at other teams organizations and find the teams that are loaded in one area [Pitching] and try to find GOOD YOUNG talent and look at 2014-15 that the RS will contend for a ring again. Look at Mariners, have Miguel Montero at catcher. Would they be willing to make Mike Zunino available [3rd overall pick in 2012 draft] who just finished destroying AFL pitching, this kid is going to be a stud catcher. Anyone remember the Heatcliff Slocumb trade when we got 2 unheralded players named Lowe and Varitek, or the trade the Mets made when they traded C.Beltran at deadline w/ expiring contract and were able to pick up a pitching stud like Matt Harvey. These are the deals RS should be trying to make, not aquiring 30+ players [Napoli/Vmart/Hamilton] Red Sox should be looking for players who will be great players 2 years from now, not players who will be 2 more years past there prime. I look at RS roster and everyone is available except those that I believe will still be productive players in 2 yrs [Buchholz/Doubront/Pedroia/Middlebrooks/Kalish/Lavarnway/Bradley/Webster/De La Rosa/ Barnes/Boegarts/Cecchini/Swihart] the rest of team should be available. If you feel you can't sign Ellsbury then trade him. Teams that have a very good 1b, see if that team has a young stud 1b in minors whose path is blocked, those are the guys we should be going after! 



    You cant predict who is going to be good 2 yrs from now.  Top prospects fizzle every year.  For the last four years people have been creating theoretical future rosters that are entirely home grown.  It never comes true.  Its unrealistic.

    The Sox should not be looking at 2015 as you suggest.  We have a current roster that is better than 2/5 of last years AL playoff teams (Baltimore and Oak).  We have payroll flexibility to add to this too.

    People say we dont have a #1, however, Buchholz pitched like a #1 for most of last year.  His 2-seam fastball is legit.  Lester does have 4 very good pitches, he will rebound.  De La Rosa throws in the high 90's as a starter.  Doubie's K rate indicates that he does have the "stuff" necessary to consistenly fool major league hitters indicating that his ceiling is higher than what we saw last year.  There are a lot of people who are expecting Lackey to rebound strongly (even a 4.2 ERA is very good for a #3 pitcher in teh AL east).

    Our lineup needs improving; however, it does have a solid core.  Ellsbury, Pedey, Ortiz, Middlebrooks.  If we can 2 sluggers to this lineup, there is no reason why we cant compete in 2013.  Sluggers are available.  Sign Napoli and trade for a slugging corner outfielder, and we are immediate playoff contenders.

    Habitually looking three years ahead and creating theoretical lineups of exclusively home-grown options is what Cleveland, SD, Pirates, Twins do.  If you operate like these clubs, you can expect similar results (maybe even worse results considering that Cle, SD,Pirates are always drafting from an early position; whereas, we are always drafting near the end).

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Can't understand RS fans? Keep wishing for guys like Vmart or Napoli, as if getting these guys will help us win a WS ring next year. Good Luck w/ that. Ben C should be looking at other teams organizations and find the teams that are loaded in one area [Pitching] and try to find GOOD YOUNG talent and look at 2014-15 that the RS will contend for a ring again. Look at Mariners, have Miguel Montero at catcher. Would they be willing to make Mike Zunino available [3rd overall pick in 2012 draft] who just finished destroying AFL pitching, this kid is going to be a stud catcher. Anyone remember the Heatcliff Slocumb trade when we got 2 unheralded players named Lowe and Varitek, or the trade the Mets made when they traded C.Beltran at deadline w/ expiring contract and were able to pick up a pitching stud like Matt Harvey. These are the deals RS should be trying to make, not aquiring 30+ players [Napoli/Vmart/Hamilton] Red Sox should be looking for players who will be great players 2 years from now, not players who will be 2 more years past there prime. I look at RS roster and everyone is available except those that I believe will still be productive players in 2 yrs [Buchholz/Doubront/Pedroia/Middlebrooks/Kalish/Lavarnway/Bradley/Webster/De La Rosa/ Barnes/Boegarts/Cecchini/Swihart] the rest of team should be available. If you feel you can't sign Ellsbury then trade him. Teams that have a very good 1b, see if that team has a young stud 1b in minors whose path is blocked, those are the guys we should be going after! 




    Not one player will win us a WS, but a few solid moves will certainly make us a better team. Most teams wont let go of their top prospects for the same reasons we want them. Unless we give up something of great value. I dont mind making a trade for a good prospect, but I also want to utilize FA for what its meant for. Filling in the holes to make us a better team right now.

    Im not ready to sit and wait 2 years and HOPE some young kid turns out to be great. Were not a low budget team and we shouldnt have to operate like one.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Career OPS

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    Can't understand RS fans? Keep wishing for guys like Vmart or Napoli, as if getting these guys will help us win a WS ring next year. Good Luck w/ that. Ben C should be looking at other teams organizations and find the teams that are loaded in one area [Pitching] and try to find GOOD YOUNG talent and look at 2014-15 that the RS will contend for a ring again. Look at Mariners, have Miguel Montero at catcher. Would they be willing to make Mike Zunino available [3rd overall pick in 2012 draft] who just finished destroying AFL pitching, this kid is going to be a stud catcher. Anyone remember the Heatcliff Slocumb trade when we got 2 unheralded players named Lowe and Varitek, or the trade the Mets made when they traded C.Beltran at deadline w/ expiring contract and were able to pick up a pitching stud like Matt Harvey. These are the deals RS should be trying to make, not aquiring 30+ players [Napoli/Vmart/Hamilton] Red Sox should be looking for players who will be great players 2 years from now, not players who will be 2 more years past there prime. I look at RS roster and everyone is available except those that I believe will still be productive players in 2 yrs [Buchholz/Doubront/Pedroia/Middlebrooks/Kalish/Lavarnway/Bradley/Webster/De La Rosa/ Barnes/Boegarts/Cecchini/Swihart] the rest of team should be available. If you feel you can't sign Ellsbury then trade him. Teams that have a very good 1b, see if that team has a young stud 1b in minors whose path is blocked, those are the guys we should be going after! 




    Not one player will win us a WS, but a few solid moves will certainly make us a better team. Most teams wont let go of their top prospects for the same reasons we want them. Unless we give up something of great value. I dont mind making a trade for a good prospect, but I also want to utilize FA for what its meant for. Filling in the holes to make us a better team right now.

    Im not ready to sit and wait 2 years and HOPE some young kid turns out to be great. Were not a low budget team and we shouldnt have to operate like one.



    We can do both. Get better in 2013 with some trades and FA signings, but with few moves that aren't geared towards making us even better in 2014 and beyond.

     
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