Re: Career OPS
posted at 11/21/2012 10:02 PM EST
In response to Drewski5's comment:
In response to georom4's comment:
Thanks Georom. People who are saying that Napoli would not make a significant offensive upgrade, please check this out:
drewski....excellent suggestion...we have a hole at iB and need someone to fill in a catrcher for just a few games a yr...
Napoli's career OPS is .863. If he hit that last year, he would have had the fourth highest OPS among first baseman. As mentioned earlier AGON's career OPS is .877.
I dont think its unreasonable to expect Naps OPS to get better once he moves away from the physical drain of catching and moving to a ballpark where he has a career OPS > 1.000.
As mentioned, his career OPS is higher than Morneau's. Thats despite the physical drain of catching. I understand that his OPS was .810 last year; however, due to his incredibly low BABIP (credit: Boom) , this was partly caused by bad luck. He also had a nagging hamstring injury.
He isnt an average hitter for a first baseman. He is an excellent hitter. The fact that he can slide to C in interleague games is valuable. The fact that he can play C if there is an injury/trade/slump also provides value.
He draws a ton of walk and has legitimate 30 HR power. He's a righty pull hitter. This is exact mold of player we go after. I honestly think that he is a bargain at market. AGON is worth 22M at market, and its not unreasonable to think that Naps will outslug AGON over the next four years.
He has a career OPS at Fenway > 1.000. We've had luck signing guys w/ Fenway swings (Beltre, Lowell, Ross). He can be the next one. We could then use the prospects saved (by signing Naps to play first as opposed to trading for a 1B), to trade for a corner outfielder (where the FA market is terrible).
I dont get why we're willing to pay AGON's .877 bat 22M/yr until he's 37, but not Napoli's .863 bat 12-14M / yr until he's 35 (assuming a four year deal). He's right on AGON's heals regarding OPS, and with a move to Fenway + getting away from catching every day, he may pass him.
FOr all of those who are saying that he isn't a very good hitter for a 1B, please name me 5 1B who you think are better hitters.
Here's my list of 1B who are significantly better hitters than Naps: Pujols, Fielder, Morse (end list)
PS: to those of you who are saying that trading for Morse is an option, I agree. However, I cant see the Nats trading him. ANd if they did, it would be a lot of prospects for 1 yr of Morse. Dont think you could get him cheap.
Napoli’s BABIP of .273 was really not built on bad luck. In fact, his BABIP splits were nearly perfect. The primary reason his overall slash lines dropped was more related to an incredible increase in his strikeouts from 19.7% to 30%. There were a few other factors, such as the drop in HRs and his BABIP on flyballs dropping to a much more normal level. In 2011, his BABIP on fly balls was .245. In 2012, it was .095. A normal BABIP on fly balls is about .105, so the “luck” Napoli had was actually more good luck in 2011 as opposed to bad luck in 2012.
Now, in Fenway, a right-handed pull hitter with some pop can certainly get a much higher BABIP on flyballs than a .105, since anything off the monster is unplayable, yet considered a hit on a ball in play. For this reason, Napoli should certainly be able to improve his BABIP on fly balls in Boston, and therefore post some better all around splits...