Kimmi, I don't disagree that 4 years is too long. But as you say that's what he's likely to get. Napoli at least could be a good DH option in years 3 and 4.

If not Napoli, then who? The only other free agent first baseman that seems attractive is LaRoche, and he's likely to get overpaid too.

If we take the prudent route and pass on Napoli and LaRoche, who plays first base for us next year?

I don't have a good answer to that Bob.  I was intrigued by the idea of a trade with the Mets for Ike Davis, but they seem unwilling to part with him now.  Napoli might be our best option, and I realize that teams usually have to overpay for free agents, but 4 years at $12 mil or more per year seems a little too risky to me in terms of years.

The Rangers did not make a qualifying offer to Napoli, which is a plus for the Sox if they sign him, but it leads one to wonder why the Rangers would pass on the chance to get a draft pick.  If Napoli is worth 4 years at $12+ mil per year, why wouldn't the Rangers be willing to chance having to pay him $13.3 mil for one year if he accepted?

 

I agree that the 1.046 (2011 OPS)contained good luck , and the .812 (2012 OPS) contained bad luck. If we meet in the middle, we come to .929. That would make rank him third in OPS among 1B. I honestly feel that it is conservative to meet in the middle. We could theoretically skew it up to account for the nagging hamstring injury that drove the 2012 (and therefore the 2 year avg) down. We are also not accounting for park factor. When we signed Adrian G to a 22M/yr for seven yrs (through the age of 35), he was coming off a year when his OPS was .904. I dont think 4 yrs for Napoli at 12-14 M (through the age of 35) is too much.

The contract that it would require to sign Napoli is 43% shorter (assuming four years), will take him to the same age and is 36% less per year (assuming 14M/yr). Meanwhile, they have very comparable bats (from an OPS standpt).

What is more believable to you? A guy with an OPS of .880 (OPS prior to going into last year), coming off a season with an MVP caliber OPS, suddenly plummeted to .812 at 30 yrs old because of extreme premateure overnight aging or that a well documented nagging hamstring injury drove the number down? If we was 33/34, I would tend to agree with you. But he was only 30/31 last year. Also: many of his early years , he wasnt playing everyday (defensive reasons). So if anything, he has less wear and tear than a 30/31 yr old otherwise would. Side note: The career .863 OPS includes many "coming off the bench" at-bats, which is noteworthy and impressive.

Also, if the .812 OPS was due to some aging, this can be remedied by having him play most of his games as a first baseman.

At the end of the day, his OPS is a tick shy of AGONs. I would expect him to outperform this number in a four year deal because: a) playing 1B = less fatigue (as opposed to Catching), b) the .863 contains off the bench stats, c) He has a lifetime OPS > 1,000 at Fenway where he would play half his games.

The people saying that he isnt a great hitter for a 1B are wrong. There are only 3 first baseman in the league who are unquestionably better hitters than Napoli (Fielder, Pujols, Morse)

You make some very good points Drew, and it's hard for me to argue with much of what you say.  I agree that both playing at Fenway and playing more at 1B as opposed to catching should benefit Napoli in terms of OPS.  I also agree that most of his drop off offensively is likely injury related, more so than age related.

 

Oh geez, what happened to the rest of my post?

 

You make some very good points Drew, and it's hard for me to argue with much of what you say. I agree that both playing at Fenway and playing more at 1B as opposed to catching should benefit Napoli in terms of OPS. I also agree that most of his drop off offensively is likely injury related, more so than age related.

 

That said, I am inclined to believe that some of the drop off is due to aging.  Napoli is 31, which is not exactly a spring chicken in terms of baseball players.  By all accounts, he is past his prime or peak years as a hitter.  I was also reading that his particular skillset (hits for power, walks, low BA, and lack of speed) tends not to age well.  That, coupled with his long list of injuries, makes a 4 year deal a little too risky, IMO.

I agree that he is likely to rebound nicely next year.  Again, I am not opposed to the Sox signing him.  I just have my reservations about committing 4 years to him.

 

In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

It can go either way and makes for a great debate.  IMO, Trout's most impressive stat: only 4 CS.  He doesnt have the frame to have truly elite speed.  Leading the league in SB, w/ only 4 CS, w / a frame capable of hitting 30 HR (so not a string bean), just awes me. 

Seriously, someone please explain that before I stop believing in physics.  Is that elite baserunning smarts? 

In response to Drewski5's comment:

 

Napoli’s BABIP of .273 was really not built on bad luck. In fact, his BABIP splits were nearly perfect. The primary reason his overall slash lines dropped was more related to an incredible increase in his strikeouts from 19.7% to 30%. There were a few other factors, such as the drop in HRs and his BABIP on flyballs dropping to a much more normal level. In 2011, his BABIP on fly balls was .245. In 2012, it was .095. A normal BABIP on fly balls is about .105, so the “luck” Napoli had was actually more good luck in 2011 as opposed to bad luck in 2012.

 

Now, in Fenway, a right-handed pull hitter with some pop can certainly get a much higher BABIP on flyballs than a .105, since anything off the monster is unplayable, yet considered a hit on a ball in play. For this reason, Napoli should certainly be able to improve his BABIP on fly balls in Boston, and therefore post some better all around splits...

 

 

...but sometimes pitchers pitch away to RH'd pull hitters in Fenway, and we don't know how well Naps can adjust to that.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

I think they know this and are ready for it. It doesnt mean they will execute every pitch and he would have to take advantage of any mistakes. Patience is important as well and not being tempted to chase the outside offering will result in more BB or just go the other way with it.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

True. Just saying that not all players can adjust quickly. Look what everyone expected from AGon, myself included.

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In response to Drewski5's comment:

Drewski, 

I realize that this is a bit off subject comsidering we are writing about player in today's MLB but this is where Ted Williams numbers dwarf others. A lifetime .482obs with a lifetime of 1.116ops. I realize it was a different era with higher batting averages but even so when comparing to other players of his era Williams is stilll 60-80 points higher than the best of his time. 

Hetch

 

In response to bobbysu's comment:

Masterson is really a bullpen guy...LHH kill him still to this day.Nick Hagadone has turned out to be much of nothing. We got a good 1.5 years from VMart for basically a BP guy who is posing as a starter.

He wasnt a FT catcher, wasnt good defensivly. We had Papi at DH and Youk at 1b. Detroit gave him a 4/50M deal which the Sox werent going to do.

In response to Alibiike's comment:

 

Once again, you decide to make up a negative trait and then use your imagination against the front office.  Do you have any REAL complaints or just prejudices?

 

And here is the kicker - your  complainthas no basis in reality.   All this team does is redo things that did not work out!  They RARELY give prolongd chancves to anyone.   Think about all the free agents this team signed that you did not like over the past few seasons, names like Lugo, Clement, Cameron, Renteria, Crawford, Punto, Jenks.  How many finished their contracts in Boston?!!?   Did you miss the story about that big "let's correct some mistakes" trade the Sox made with the Dodgers?   I think there might be some inforamtion on the web about it.  Try Google.

 

Really the only 2 free agents lately who have played out their deals in Boston were Drew and Matsuzaka.   Both had some good years, but were injured far too often to deal elsewhere.

 

Got any actual complaints that make sense? Or will you just be whining about everything as the big part of your pre-determined plan for the entire off-season?

Trading then losing VMart to Free Agency, cost this team dearly in Prospects. Should have never let him walk.

I'd rather have Barnes and Owens than Masterson & Hagadone, so I am not seeing your point here.

I do think keeping Beltre would have  kept Youk at 1B and maybe Rizzo in our system. However, we did get Bradley and Swihart with the comp picks from losing Adrian Beltre.

I seriously doubt we'd have won a ring with Masterson and  Beltre or VMart/Beltre anyways, so I'm glad we have Barnes, Bradley, Owens & Swihart looking to 2014 and beyond.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

However if you compare his numbers to our existing 1B they're off the charts. Not sure where the cheaper part is relevent...The question in my mind is...Does the player project to be productive over the life of his contract? If the answer to that question is yes. Then the follow-up query then is? "Does that production warrant the moneys spent". Again if the answer is yes. Then it would make sense to tender an offer.

The question in my mind with Napoli is not "would he be a good fit on the current team". Rather can he hit in the middle of the lineup and be a consistent run producer. End of the day, if we look at the current "roster construction" we lack impact middle of the order bats. Since Hamilton is the only player that fits that description on the current market. Adding Napoli would for far less, would serve to lengthen our current lineup. Without as much risk in signing a player like Hamilton (injuries and history with addictions).

cf Ellsbury

2b Pedrioa

dh Ortiz

1b Napoli

3b Middlebrooks

c Saltalamacchia / Ross

lf Gomes

rf Sweeney/Kalish

ss Iglesias

 

If he can produce a mid 800 to 900 ops for the first 3 years, then Im ok with a 4th. Thats just how FA usually works whether we like it or not. Ive predicted between 10-12M per and 3-4 year deal. No way I give him more than that.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

.800 - .900 easy!!

In a down year where he had a nagging hamstring injury and caught all year, he had an OPS > .800.  His career OPS is .863.  He's a better hitter than Tex and Morneau.  His 2 year average OPS is > .900  That ranks him third among MLB firstbaseman.  He's a top 5 hitting first baseman.  I would only expect him to get better coming to a park where his career OPS > 1.000, and w/out having to catch everyday.

The fact that he can catch is very valuable for interleague games.  Good clubhouse guy.  Swing built for Fenway.  One of the best hitting first baseman in the league.  Draws a ton of walks.  Versatile.  .800-.900 easy.

Also: We have a ton of young pitching.  Lester and Buchh arent old.  Doubie's K numbers are impressive.  Morales and Tazawa could be turned into starters if needed.  De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes are legitimate pitching prospects.  What we dont have coming up through the system are pure power hitters or first baseman.

I'm not about going after every free agent every year and I'm not about avoiding them at all costs.  I'm about picking and chosing when to go after them.  Napoli fits for a ton of reasons and just  turned 31 a month ago.   He isnt old by any stretch.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

While very likely the case, the issue is probably not as simple as a fourth year.   Just like the isue with Ortiz was not both sides trying to agree on a 2 year $25mill contract. 

 

The issue is probably more along the lines of Napoli's agent trying to find the best deal possible for his client, possibly one that includes catching more often if that is what Napoli wants.   I have noticed the other teams he appears to be talking to (Seattle, Pittsburgh) are also teams that need a catcher.

 

The general feeling about Napoli appears to be that he is not good enough to catch everyday.  Then any team that acquired him as a catcher (which I am guessing is Napoli's preference) would be better off with a backup catcher who could play with increased frequency.

 

A back up catcher who could play a little more often?  Sound familiar? It's almost direclty out of the David Ross press release.

 

 

I still think K Morales is the sleeper pick. His 4 years OPS ranks pretty close to Naps.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

And it also includes more downtime.

 

Also, per MLBTR.com today, he is unlikely to be dealt...

In response to notin's comment:

Morales has averages about 340 PAs per season since 2009. Naps has averaged about 450.

Yeah, I read the MLBTR.com piece, but am not sure they really need Morales as their DH as much as we need him as our 1Bman, so I think something can be worked out.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

 

So... 25% more downtime for Morales.

 

I would be surprised if Morales was still on the Sox radar.  I think, as opposed to working something out with Anaheim, the Sox pursue options in the following order.

 

1. Napoli

2. Swisher.  They still might move on him as a RF even if they sign Napoli.

3. LaRoche.  I assume they will pass since his demands figure to be more outrageous than options 1 and 2, all things considered.

4. Mike Morse.

 

Personally, part of me would like to see non-tender candidate Daric Barton get back in the mix here, but I do not think that happens either, beyond maybe a potential bench role...

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In response to Softlaw1's comment:

Like Daric Barton?   As literacy has momentarily escaped you, I ill explain that this is a prediction, not a wish list.   

 

Also, I predict that there is ZERO chance the Sox go through the entire 2013 season with a Loney / Gomez platon.  Even if there is a series of clerical errors and lawsuits that force them to start the season that way, both players will be jettisoned as soon as another opportunity presents itself.

 

And actually, I would not be surprised if Napoli received $40-50 mill somewhere.  Whether or not you think that team would be betterr with a $1mill Casey Kotchman platooning with AAAA/Japanese League vet Roberto Petagine would be immaterial to the signing team, too.

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

I'd rather dumpster dive for pitching and speedsters.  Speedsters can be found (Pods), and Pitching is unpredictable.

We have to manage free agent salaries, but that doesnt mean that we should avoid them.  If we give Naps 4 years, he will be overpaid in the final year.  But he is one of the better MLB firstbaseman (better than some of the names , I've seen around like : C. Pena, Morneau), just turned 31, has a Fenway swing, draws walks, and back up Catcher.

Also, going for Naps as opposed to trading for a solution allows us to use the prosects saved and make a strong push for JUPP/Stanton. 

I'm not in love w/ 4 yrs for Napoli either, but at the end of the deal, he'll be 34.  So its not like there are multiple years for big dollars for a player in his mid-late thirties (like most free agent contracts I see).  He'll be overpaid in year 4 , but the sox have the resources to manage around this.  Meanwhile, we will be much better in 2013, 2014, 2015, especially if w use the resources saved to round out the team (use the prospects to trade for a slugging RF).