Carl Crawford superstar

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Carl Crawford superstar

    I threatened earlier to start a Carl Crawford thread and here it is. I read one of Chad Finn's articles (one of my favorite writers on boston.com btw) where he said that Carl Crawford's most similar career comp is the late great Roberto Clemente. Watching him the last few games I can see why that is. I think Red Sox fans are really going to enjoy watching this guy for the next seven years. It also makes me realize how fortunate Pirates fans were to be able to watch Senor Clemente for all those years.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    One major difference I can see is that Roberto played RF and did so with a cannon. His defensive prowess quite frankly was worth more in wins and losses than CC's. Clemente's presence in RF changed the way opponents played the Pirates, nobody is changing anything because of CC in LF, they just get robbed every once in awhile by a webgem catch in the gap. Better than a stick in the eye but Roberto was so respected in a way that changed the way the opponent played.

    Another is Roberto, as is the case with most RH hitters wasn't largely neutralized by RH pitching like Crawford is by LH pitching as a LH.

    Crawford OTOH is a much better base stealer than Roberto was. Roberto had 83 for his career, Crawford has 52 in his current 162 game average while only getting CS 12 times.

    If you look at 162 game averages for their careers, it is a good comparison outside of these two rather important distinctions.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    Those are excellent points fivekatz. Crawford's arm is on the weak side. What I was looking at mostly was Crawford's gap power coupled with his speed, which really makes him an offensive force. Especially when he's on a tear like he has been lately. Clemente didn't steal a lot of bases, but my foggy memory seems to recall him being pretty fast nonetheless. I also think Crawford and Clemente have similar hand eye coordination when it comes to hitting. Needless to say I'm pretty excited to see what a team built around Pedey, Youk, Crawford, Gonzo and maybe Ells can do offensively over the next several seasons.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    I like the recognition you are giving CC, Carnie. But I wouldn't call Crawford a superstar. And I'd take Clemente over him in their respective primes in a heartbeat.

    I don't like to get too high or too low on a player. Crawford is hot. But his swing is conducive to cold-spells. Too many holes. His power can be detected when he makes a pitcher pay for a mistake. He's susceptible to mediocre/decent LH pitching. His instints on the bases and in the field are suspect.

    I think Crawford's value is best seen in CRAWBURY. Which is why I'd like to see Jake's contract extended. CRAWBURY gives the team an obvious added dimension if both play to career norms.

    I think the CC contract will be a lead weight on his shoulders, and a paper-hanger for fans. I thought his $$$ worth was around 13-15 mil and I wouldn't have gone beyond 4 years. This contract will be far less bottom-heavy if they extend Jake.
    But that is predicated on having a productive RFer.

    To me, true value is the whole - the sum of the parts. But it's nice that individual achievements are recognized. And Crawford's game is filled with intangibles that fly under the radar.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    Harness I think we are going to find that Crawford's contract is going to make it quite hard to keep Ellsbury beyond his arbitration years. The players are too similar to expect that Ellsbury is going to be signed for 50% of what CC was or that the RS would carry $35M - 40M a year of intangibles that fly under the radar.

    Though right now I would call in Ellsford rather than Crawbury it is nice to have two guys in the line-up that can on occasion get from 1st to home without a ball leaving the infield. They do add a dimension to the game that is increasingly valuable in an game that has at least partially swing to the advantage of the pitcher.

    Yes Carnie, my memory too is that Roberto flew like the wind once he got in gear.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    Get serious.  No comparison.  Clemente was a great rightfielder who, had not the Babe played there, might be a candidate for the best ever. 
     
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    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    UR probably right Katz. Pity Jake changed agents...
     
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    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]UR probably right Katz . Pity Jake changed agents...
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]With Drew's money coming off the books and Big Papi likely having to settle for Vladi Guerrero money, Ellsbury could also be in Boston long term. It's not like the Red Sox have never signed any Boras clients.
     
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    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    I doubt Papi will settle low, but his desire to remain in Boston might get the best of him. Drew/Cam/Scut $$$ comes off the books, but Jake will get Arb. and AGONE will net 13+ mil more.

    Their best chance to keep Jake was to extend him. And that opportunity was shot when Borass became his agent. I'd like to see Jake remain here, but realistically, with Kalish/Reddick/Linares on the probe - and the bread it'll likely take to keep Jake - it probably won't hapen. Signing Paps may become a major priority.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]Get serious.  No comparison.  Clemente was a great rightfielder who, had not the Babe played there, might be a candidate for the best ever. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE] Max, if you pull up the two players baseball reference files I think you will find similarity. Now similar is always a tricky phrase.

    Trot Nixon was always considered similar to Drew. In every way I think only the most ardent Drew haters would say Nixon was as good as JD.

    The two have had similar production with an edge going to Roberto through their 28th birthdays. But the tale of the tape would be in the next few years. From 29-36 Clemente never had an OPS under .840. At 35 his OPS was .963.

    If Carl Crawford was duplicate Clemente's production from 29-36 I will stand 100% corrected in the assertion that the contract is bloated!
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]I doubt Papi will settle low, but his desire to remain in Boston might get the best of him. Drew/Cam/Scut $$$ comes off the books, but Jake will get Arb. and AGONE will net 13+ mil more. Their best chance to keep Jake was to extend him. And that opportunity was shot when Borass became his agent. I'd like to see Jake remain here, but realistically, with Kalish/Reddick/Linares on the probe - and the bread it'll likely take to keep Jake - it probably won't hapen. Signing Paps may become a major priority.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]Vladi is, I think, the highest paid DH in baseball outside of Big Papi. Big Papi might get maybe $2M more than Guerrero, but I doubt he gets it from anyone but the Sox or Yankees. The worst case is that the Sox save $5M on what they're paying Papi this year. Say they up Paps' contract to Mo money, with Drew and Cam coming off the books they still have $25M under this year's payroll. I seriously doubt, even with Boras as his agent, that it will take $25M per to sign Ells long term.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jrmccook. Show jrmccook's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]Get serious.  No comparison.  Clemente was a great rightfielder who, had not the Babe played there, might be a candidate for the best ever. 
    Posted by maxbialystock[/QUOTE]
    hank aaron, mell ott, frank robinson, harry heilmann, paul waner, al kaline, tony gwynn, kiki cuyler, willie keeler, reggie jackson are rf just to name a few.
    Clemente doesn't even make the top 5. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar : hank aaron, mell ott, frank robinson, harry heilmann, paul waner, al kaline, tony gwynn, kiki cuyler, willie keeler, reggie jackson are rf just to name a few. Clemente doesn't even make the top 5. 
    Posted by jrmccook[/QUOTE]Yet Clemente is a hall of famer.
     
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    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar : Yet Clemente is a hall of famer.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]
    as are all of the ones I listed..
     
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    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar : as are all of the ones I listed..
    Posted by jrmccook[/QUOTE]My point exactly. I would gladly take another hall of famer playing left field at fenway.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Carl Crawford superstar : Vladi is, I think, the highest paid DH in baseball outside of Big Papi. Big Papi might get maybe $2M more than Guerrero, but I doubt he gets it from anyone but the Sox or Yankees. The worst case is that the Sox save $5M on what they're paying Papi this year. Say they up Paps' contract to Mo money, with Drew and Cam coming off the books they still have $25M under this year's payroll. I seriously doubt, even with Boras as his agent, that it will take $25M per to sign Ells long term.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]Next year with Ellsbury won't be an issue. He will be in his second trip to arbitration. Boras never advises his clients to extend. So you can anticipate that the RS will be taking at least one more trip to arbitration with Ellsbury. It is likely that they will run the course with Ellsbury unless they get blown over by a trade offer and take their draft picks at the end of the process unless someone emerges in the system to make a .350 OBP, high 7 low 8 OPS with 50+ SB expendable.

    BTW after the contracts come of the books, if the arbitration eligibles are retained it is estimated that the RS will have $23M left under the current CBT threshold to deal with replacing the two OFers, Scutaro, Ortiz and Paplebon. That is the impact of Crawford and A-Gon's deals. There was a reason the RS could not agree on terms with Adrian until the season began, his new contract did not count against AAV for CBT calculations because it was done "during the season." In rough numbers for CBT the new tandem counted as $25.5M. In 2012 it will count as $42M.

    It certainly appears that replacing Ortiz and Papelbon would not be easy based on what they are contributing.  

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    If Papelbon and Ortiz have the kind of years they've started, they will be the top two contract cases for next year. Papelbon is almost certain to try the FA market unless Theo offers him very big money for 4/5 years.  IMO, that a doubtful proposition. Ortiz will take a cut either in Boston or elsewhere, most likely in Boston, most likely not a cut to the 6 or 7 million some people are proposing. In tandem, this pair could cost the Sox a lot more than even the FO had secretly pencilled in before this season.  Indeed, the FO might have been prepared to let Papelbon walk. That still could happen, of course, but not if Bard fails to impress as heir apparent. 
    Ellsbury/Boras is almost certain to try FA when Jake becomes eligible -- if he's not traded in the meantime. If, on top of the Crawford and Gonzalez contracts, the Sox are obliged to shell out more, maybe much more, than anticipated for Papelbon and Ortiz, Ellsbury probably ends up elsewhere. But that, as always, will depend upon how he performs between now and then, and also upon where Kalish and Reddick stand in their development.
    Watch out for Navarro. 
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    If Papelbon and Ortiz have the kind of years they've started, they will be the top two contract cases for next year. Papelbon is almost certain to try the FA market unless Theo offers him very big money for 4/5 years.  IMO, that a doubtful proposition. Ortiz will take a cut either in Boston or elsewhere, most likely in Boston, most likely not a cut to the 6 or 7 million some people are proposing. In tandem, this pair could cost the Sox a lot more than even the FO had secretly pencilled in before this season.  Indeed, the FO might have been prepared to let Papelbon walk. That still could happen, of course, but not if Bard fails to impress as heir apparent. 
    Ellsbury/Boras is almost certain to try FA when Jake becomes eligible -- if he's not traded in the meantime. If, on top of the Crawford and Gonzalez contracts, the Sox are obliged to shell out more, maybe much more, than anticipated for Papelbon and Ortiz, Ellsbury probably ends up elsewhere. But that, as always, will depend upon how he performs between now and then, and also upon where Kalish and Reddick stand in their development.
    Watch out for Navarro. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    Wow. This thread sank amazingly fast. There must not be that many people who really like Crawford.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Carl Crawford superstar

    I like Crawford, but think getting 2-4 players for $20M a year was a better alternative.
     

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