Re: Carl Crawford: Yesterday & Today
posted at 7/23/2011 8:25 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Carl Crawford: Yesterday & Today
[QUOTE]WAR is not a valid player value appraisal.
Francouer is a one trick pony who doesn't have a contract extension because no smart gm would ever pay him 5 to 7 M to sit half the time. His career OBP is .310 and he is a punch and judy corner of'er
. His 2010 V. LHP slugging % was .442. Not very impressive for a guy that does little else on platework. Long term, bidding for or extending Francouer is poor value and fit for a player who has weak market demand for a reason. he is in a the right market. Francouer and Pence are the favorite names to fix the Crawbust OF construction flaw
. The reason is not value or fit, it's to retain Ellsbury short and long term and add a face that reflects the pride and prejudice of most Red Sox fans. Kemp, J. Upton and McCutchen are the only types of skill set profiles who are value
and fit to repair the Crawbust OF construction flaw. I'd love to see the reception McCutchen would get, if he took Bellsbury's place. The reality is that when Theo bought Crawford, he was effectively painting himself into Bellsbury's long term replacement
. There is no way to pay both, long term, as the current Francouer dumpster dive and OF v. LHP patently manifests.
Right now, Theo is having to lie to the fans and claim he's trying to extend Bellsbury and wants to keep him. For the first time, he called him a core member. This is to placate the prejudices of the fanbase.
The truth is that Theo replaced Ellsbury with Crawford, long term. Bellsbury is gone unless Crawford is unable to return to the lower ranges of his career standard deviation splits
. In order to avoid a 2nd GM malpractice complication on the heels of the 142M Crawbust contract, Theo must not allow fan prejudice to get in the way
of locking up long term on a young slugging star profile like Kemp, J. Upton or McCutchen. If he allows fan prejudice to run out the trade value arbitration clock on Ellsbury, he will be guilty of allowing emotion to dictate baseball business decisions in a Lowell and Wakefield ceremonial fan favorite gifted roster spot fashion. Kemp's name, infra, can be replaced by a similar profile if that profile is a better current market value. Unlikely, given the fact that Dodgers are most certainly out of it this year, no chance they sign Kemp beyond 2012, and the Dodgers are currently big sellers who need a new narrative. A blockbuster trade would give them that and improve their balance and depth and current and future construction. 1. The Dodgers will trade Kemp for Ellsbury and 2 or 3 non-elite prospects/players. 2. Kemp will agree to an extension at 18 to 20M base x 7 years (to age 33) 3. Kemp will only cost about 2M more for 2011 4. Kemp will agree to a middle load his extension to create a lower than 2011 budget fexibility over the near two years 5. Theo or his successor is not going to extend or bid high for Ellsbury FA 6. Ellsbury's value is currently inflated and will only fall from here out 7. Ellsbury is a better current and long term fit and value for the Dodgers 8. Kemp is a better current and long term fit and value for the Red Sox The worse thing Theo can do is to continue to vacillate under pressure to run the Ellsbury clock out and appeal to fan emotions
for a long term deal for Ellsbury. Crawford is a move that cannot be undone, nor should it be now that the mistake has been etched in stone. A blockbuster deal helps both the Dodgers and the Red Sox, short and long term. Crawford will improve once Ellsbury's fan adoration vacuum is gone. Neither Crawford or Kemp will be as popular as Ellsbury, Lowell, Wakefied and Varitek, but so what. The Red Sox will be a better team now and in the future. Crawford's role will change to the only role he is suited for. Being told to simply get on base and forget trying to slug to a 142M #3 hitter tune. Being the #6 hitter is embarrassing on many levels.
Posted by billbyboy[/QUOTE]
Love your sentence construction (NPI); and IMO, you actually make some sense, instead of sounding like a stubborn heretic, which is often the case. However, between the 3 CFers you allude to, McCutcheon is the best, IMO; however, he's very good, not great (so far); what I would call 2nd tier All-Star material; he might be a slightly better defender than Ellsbury, with a better arm, and what he could do in Fenway is quite a thought; plus, he's getting better, and could become 1st tier AS material; sort of a Curt Flood type with much more power (he's on pace to hit about 25 HRs in a tough RH park); his future production is much more reliable than Kemp, who could be another bust, despite his up-side; he appears to be a little funny in the head, (Ditto Upton) and that's not a good sign.
The bad news is, your 8 steps are still fantasyland.
Also, FWIW, Francoeur has occasional power, his low OBP drags down his OPS, and he's the antithesis of what the RS want to see in a hitter; he's very impatient and not selective. Regardless, his arm may be the equal of Colavito, and he is a great defender.
BTW, NPI means No Pun Intended
, in case you didn't know.