Re: Catching Playing Time
posted at 8/15/2011 3:45 AM EDT
In Response to Re: Catching Playing Time
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: Catching Playing Time : [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Catching Playing Time : However it's formulated, it's not accurate, especially when referencing the older parks, like Fenway/Wrigley. You'd think they'd have used years of data to determine the adjustments, but it does seem so small. Maybe it is hard to seperate the home/away differential from the park differential. If all parks were exactly the same, I am sure most teams would do better at home. Sports that play with uniform sized fields show significant
. It must be hard to factor that into a baseball equation as it relates to the actual venue. Is Felix a freak who just does better away from home, even though Seattle is a huge park? (if you adjusted his numners, he'd be way better away.)
Posted by moonslav59
This is the interesting gray
1) You've got the actual park varience in comparison to other parks.
2) You've got the home advantage factor.
3) Then you've got a talent like Felix, who has the stuff to make the proper adjustments. I've watched him for years now. This is my take on him:
There was a ton of hype surrounding this young kid here in Seattle.
He answered it well in his rookie year. He pitched a bit better on the road, possible due to the pressure factor.
In his first full season, there was a huge H/A differential:Safeco
: 90 IP 78 H 3.47 ERA 1.147 WHIP .645 OPS
AWAY: 100 IP 117 H 5.47 ERA 1.505 WHIP .800 OPS
After that, he began to mature (at all levels) and the splits were closer.
Now the question, beyond having the stuff to make the necessary adjustments to other venues, is If a pitcher pitches as well away from a home pitching venue, isn't he in fact pitching better than the numbers indicate given the fact the home advantage is missing on the road?
In the same fashion, if RedSox pitchers have a 3.54 road ERA, as opposed to a 4.25 Fenway ERA, aren't they really
pitching better on the road than perceived, given the absence of home advantage?