CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : DC, The hype on a guy like Iggy I can understand you questioning but Lav?  The guy has hit the ball hard and just come up empty in three or four AB.  Salty has been a below average catcher defensively and ruined a lot of good innings for this team with his lack of plate discipline/SO's. Come on, anyone who thinks Salty will be a better player than Lav will be as wrong as they were about Iggy, Aviles and Ciriaco.   If I'm wrong I will gladly be back yo admit it but I don't see Aviles or Salty's 20 HR's having more of a positive impact on our club, than the weaknesses they bring to the club.
    Posted by craze4sox

    Not many catchers step into a MLB role at age 24 and do well defensively. Many catchers, icluding VTek, don't get their chance until their late 20's and take a couple seasons or more to develope into a good defensive catcher who can handle a pitching staff well.

    Salty is now the same age as VTek when VTek became a FT catcher. I'm glad people didn't look at Vtek's CERA, CS%, Passed Balls, and WPs to determine he isn't cut out to be a FT MLb catcher.

    Here are VTek's numbers with the Sox his first 3 years (1998-2000)
    Ages 26-28

    1152 (PAs)  .258  37  174 (22nd BA among 30 ML catchers)
    .331 OBP (21st)
    .431 SLG  (16th)
    .762 OPS  (17th)

    PBs: 57 in 2745 innings (led league in 1999 & 2000)

    CS%: 26%

    Salty's first 2 full years with Boston were from ages 26-27: one year younger than VTek. Here are his numbers with Boston:
    633 (PAs)  .234  36  102 (23rd in BA among 30 ML catchers)
    .288 OBP (25th)
    .472 SLG (4th)
    .760 OPS (15th)

    PBs: 31 in 1469 innings (led league in 2011)
    CS%: 26%

    Amazing similarities on CS% and Passed Balls. 
    Amazing similarities on catcher ranks in BA and OBP and OPS.

    VTek turned things aroung at age 30 both offensively and defensively.

    Some of you want Salty's chance at proving himself cut short at age 27, even though he is about where Vtek was at age 29.

    I'm not saying Salty will ever be as good as Vtek in handling the staff, but he has improved in this area since May 1st. Going to a 24 year old is a big roll of the dice.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : Not many catchers step into a MLB role at age 24 and do well defensively. Many catchers, icluding VTek, don't get their chance until their late 20's and take a couple seasons or more to develope into a good defensive catcher who can handle a pitching staff well. Salty is now the same age as VTek when VTek became a FT catcher. I'm glad people didn't look at Vtek's CERA, CS%, Passed Balls, and WPs to determine he isn't cut out to be a FT MLb catcher. Here are VTek's numbers with the Sox his first 3 years (1998-2000) Ages 26-28 1152 (PAs)  .258  37  174 (22nd BA among 30 ML catchers) .331 OBP (21st) .431 SLG  (16th) .762 OPS  (17th) PBs: 57 in 2745 innings (led league in 1999 & 2000) CS%: 26% Salty's first 2 full years with Boston were from ages 26-27: one year younger than VTek. Here are his numbers with Boston: 633 (PAs)  .234  36  102 (23rd in BA among 30 ML catchers) .288 OBP (25th) .472 SLG (4th) .760 OPS (15th) PBs: 31 in 1469 innings (led league in 2011) CS%: 26% Amazing similarities on CS% and Passed Balls.  Amazing similarities on catcher ranks in BA and OBP and OPS. VTek turned things aroung at age 30 both offensively and defensively. Some of you want Salty's chance at proving himself cut short at age 27, even though he is about where Vtek was at age 29. I'm not saying Salty will ever be as good as Vtek in handling the staff, but he has improved in this area since May 1st. Going to a 24 year old is a big roll of the dice.
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon, it comes down to whats best for the team.  If Lav matures quicker in all areas he will probably be worth much more to our club than allowing guys like Tek or Salty four years before having a decent season.

    With Tek we suffered at the catching position early on in his career and mostly offensively from 07 until he retired.  Let Salty and Lav share time next season, I think it could be more beneficial to the team and both of them overall.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Salty has now had 5 seasons of mlb now, with a short call up in the 6th. He really has had a lot of time to show he belongs. He does belong. He just isn't good enough, when we have a guy who had much better numbers in the minors who looks to be at least as good defensively.

    I just think we should look for an upgrade internally before we fork out over $6 mil in arb for Salty next year. I'd feel a lot better if we found out this year if Lavarnway can take over and do as well.....or better.

    Even if we have to release Salty next winter but I don't think we will. He probably will be desired and be worth that much for some team. And get us something in a trade. Yes, he might well have 30 HR potential. He should be worth some value to some team. I'm not convinced he has that much pop going forward. This year is by far his best pop year. If the team thinks he is worth $6 mil then by all means keep him. Platooning him with Lavarnway probably would result in more rest for Salty and might well help him.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    A huge factor in all of this is do we have a special player in Lavarnway? His minor league numbers say maybe we do. His fit for Fenway park indicates that he might well benefit from hitting in Fenway. Can he adjust and call a good game? His intelligence indicates maybe he can. Tek was a Georgia Tech guy and his main claim to fame was his handling of the staff. Lavarnway appears to be at least as intelligent. Maybe he becomes a top pitch caller also in a short time.

    Developing a catcher is an investment. We want to make sure we are investing in the right guy. 
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    With Salty having 2 really bad CERA years in a row, on top of a number of bad years before that, at least statistically it appears he is not an optimal fit. 
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    With Salty having 2 really bad CERA years in a row, on top of a number of bad years before that, at least statistically it appears he is not an optimal fit. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom


    Exactly Boomer, the problem with our organization in the past was not identifying weaknesses, or allowing them to go on much too long. 
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    moon, it comes down to whats best for the team.  If Lav matures quicker in all areas he will probably be worth much more to our club than allowing guys like Tek or Salty four years before having a decent season.

    Salty's time with Boston is up after 2013. He may be traded before then or extended.

    I have a lot of faith in Lava as our future DH or catcher, but at 24?
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Salty has now had 5 seasons of mlb now, with a short call up in the 6th. He really has had a lot of time to show he belongs. He does belong. He just isn't good enough, when we have a guy who had much better numbers in the minors who looks to be at least as good defensively.

    Salty was called up to the majors long before VTek was. He was hyped up at the time, but that shouldn't be held against him. Saying he's had 5 mlb seasons is a bit of a misrepresentation of the facts.
    2007 (age 22) he started 42 games as a catcher and ended up with 373 innings.
    2008 (23) 50 gms  464 inn
    2009 (24) 82 gms  714inn
    2010 (25) 6 gms  53 inn
    2011 (26) 96 gms  856 inn
    2012 (27) 68 gms  613 inn
    Career: 346 gms started 3073 innings.

    These are numbers of a FT MLb catcher over maybe 2-3 seasons.

    VTek spent 4 full years in the minors. He hit .248 with about 2 Hrs per 500 PAs in the minors.

    I just think we should look for an upgrade internally before we fork out over $6 mil in arb for Salty next year. I'd feel a lot better if we found out this year if Lavarnway can take over and do as well.....or better.

    We could easily trade Salty at $6M this winter or next year. There's no way we don't offer him arb no matter how great Lava does. Salty at least has trade value.

    Besides, if Lava does great for 2 months, you think this is a large enough sample size to put all our eggs in one basket?

    My position has been that Salty's biggest 2 question marks are:
    1) Durability: you want to end the "experiment" before we find this answer.
    2) Handling of the staff: you want to end the "experiment" after Salty has put together a nice 3 month stretch with a staff hobbled by injuries, lost velocity, and a back-up closer, and a rotating rotation and bottom pen.

    Even if we have to release Salty next winter but I don't think we will. He probably will be desired and be worth that much for some team. And get us something in a trade. Yes, he might well have 30 HR potential. He should be worth some value to some team. I'm not convinced he has that much pop going forward. This year is by far his best pop year. If the team thinks he is worth $6 mil then by all means keep him. Platooning him with Lavarnway probably would result in more rest for Salty and might well help him.

    If Papi walks, it would be best for us to keep both Salty and Lava, and maybe Shoppach as well. There will be plenty of PAs to go around, and lava could be eased into the catcher role slowly. Salty could be extended or traded if it appears Lava is the real deal.

    If Papi stays, it may be best to trade Salty or Lava this winter. To me, Lava has more value to us due to his many more years of team control. Salty should net good return in trade due to the horrible state of MLB catchers these days and struggling offenses that would love to get a strong boost at a usual position of weakness.


     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    With Salty having 2 really bad CERA years in a row, on top of a number of bad years before that, at least statistically it appears he is not an optimal fit. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    He's 27 and has much better CERA numbers since May 1st. 

    3 months is a pretty large sample size. 

    It is promising.

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I stand corrected on Salty's mlb time. He only had 30 AB of mlb time in 2010, which would have been his 5th year. Even with that it is still 4 years of mlb time, of which only one year involved a batting average much over .235, which was one year at .253. If he were a better player he would have played more often. He has basically been a platoon guy for years now, which is not uncommon for a catcher.

    Consistently bad CERA, consistently bad defensive numbers, nothing good except some pop which at least has trended upwards. With a CERA of 4.65 this year, with all previous years also not good, I don't see how we can look at this guy as a positive defender at all from looking at what data we have compiled now.  Sell high or keep him with Lava going forward at least through 2013.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    I stand corrected on Salty's mlb time. He only had 30 AB of mlb time in 2010, which would have been his 5th year. Even with that it is still 4 years of mlb time, of which only one year involved a batting average much over .235, which was one year at .253. If he were a better player he would have played more often. He has basically been a platoon guy for years now, which is not uncommon for a catcher. Consistently bad CERA, consistently bad defensive numbers, nothing good except some pop which at least has trended upwards. With a CERA of 4.65 this year, with all previous years also not good, I don't see how we can look at this guy as a positive defender at all from looking at what data we have compiled now.  Sell high or keep him with Lava going forward at least through 2013.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom

    boom, I have told you how I am looking at this guy and my history of looking at this guy under a microscope.

    I was all over Salty last year and this April. I have been hoping and wishing he would turn things around. It would have been easy for me to say, "I was right all along" and keep leading the Salty Bashmobile, but something happened along the way. Our staff improved greatly with Salty after May 1st. They improved with Shoppach too, but not by as big a factor. It's been 3 months of pretty solid numbers from Salty with CERA and defensive numbers other than CS%.

    I am not prepared to write off any ML catcher at age 27 who has shown improvement on defense and pitcher-handling and is 4th in SLG% among catchers. I want to see if his durabilty is a big weakness or maybe that last year was a fluke  or maybe brought on by having to catch Wake so many games last year. Other teams might be looking at the same thing. 

    You have used fangraph's a lot to pick Salty's game apart , but they do have his current value at $7M (4th out of 30 catchers in MLB).

    While his defensive portion of the WAR places him at 21st out of 30, he is not the "worst" or "2nd to worst" as you have used fangraphs to imply he is. While 21st is a weakness not a plus, I think his last 3 months have been a plus or at least a nonfactor. I don't see why anyone would want to "end the experiment" in the midst of a 3 month trend to the good.

    What's the hurry on Lava? If Lava hits 15 HRs for the next 2 months, it won't change Salty's value. Not playing Salty will... to the bad.

    As I have said, I'm fine with trading Salty. I read somewhere he was the center of a big trade proposal a few days back. I wouldn't be surprised at all. I understand that playing him the rest of the year could lower his value if he wimps out, but with proper resting, I think it is a bigger chance for value loss if we bench him now than if we play him 60% of the games the rest of this season.

    No matter what happenes the rest of this year, lava will have a clear shot next year. He will get some scattered PAs this year, and maybe more if Papi remains out for a while, or if we are clearly out of it.


    (Sidenote: you want to count Salty's seasons with 153 to 310 PAs as "MLB seasons", but when I wanted to lower the fangraphs PAs to include 30 to 60 MLb catchers as comparisons against Salty, you said they shouldn't count.)
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : boom, I have told you how I am looking at this guy and my history of looking at this guy under a microscope. I was all over Salty last year and this April. I have been hoping and wishing he would turn things around. It would have been easy for me to say, "I was right all along" and keep leading the Salty Bashmobile, but something happened along the way. Our staff improved greatly with Salty after May 1st. They improved with Shoppach too, but not by as big a factor. It's been 3 months of pretty solid numbers from Salty with CERA and defensive numbers other than CS%. I am not prepared to write off any ML catcher at age 27 who has shown improvement on defense and pitcher-handling and is 4th in SLG% among catchers. I want to see if his durabilty is a big weakness or maybe that last year was a fluke  or maybe brought on by having to catch Wake so many games last year. Other teams might be looking at the same thing.  You have used fangraph's a lot to pick Salty's game apart , but they do have his current value at $7M (4th out of 30 catchers in MLB). While his defensive portion of the WAR places him at 21st out of 30, he is not the "worst" or "2nd to worst" as you have used fangraphs to imply he is. While 21st is a weakness not a plus, I think his last 3 months have been a plus or at least a nonfactor. I don't see why anyone would want to "end the experiment" in the midst of a 3 month trend to the good. What's the hurry on Lava? If Lava hits 15 HRs for the next 2 months, it won't change Salty's value. Not playing Salty will... to the bad. As I have said, I'm fine with trading Salty. I read somewhere he was the center of a big trade proposal a few days back. I wouldn't be surprised at all. I understand that playing him the rest of the year could lower his value if he wimps out, but with proper resting, I think it is a bigger chance for value loss if we bench him now than if we play him 60% of the games the rest of this season. No matter what happenes the rest of this year, lava will have a clear shot next year. He will get some scattered PAs this year, and maybe more if Papi remains out for a while, or if we are clearly out of it. (Sidenote: you want to count Salty's seasons with 153 to 310 PAs as "MLB seasons", but when I wanted to lower the fangraphs PAs to include 30 to 60 MLb catchers as comparisons against Salty, you said they shouldn't count.)
    Posted by moonslav59
    Careful, Moon, the math whiz, by his own admission, has declared that his numbers objectively "substantiate" his position. His numbers, yes, but with just a teeny nudge here and selectivity there, and.... What rubbish.
    On the subject of Salty's defense, you have been fair and forthcoming, and looked at all of the relevant evidence, including that produced by your own good eyes. No one on this board who's paying close attention would ever accuse Boom of fairness on this topic. He's got a rip-roaring agenda.
    I'm sticking with you essentially on this one, though I may cavil a bit about CERA.

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : boom, I have told you how I am looking at this guy and my history of looking at this guy under a microscope. I was all over Salty last year and this April. I have been hoping and wishing he would turn things around. It would have been easy for me to say, "I was right all along" and keep leading the Salty Bashmobile, but something happened along the way. Our staff improved greatly with Salty after May 1st. They improved with Shoppach too, but not by as big a factor. It's been 3 months of pretty solid numbers from Salty with CERA and defensive numbers other than CS%. I am not prepared to write off any ML catcher at age 27 who has shown improvement on defense and pitcher-handling and is 4th in SLG% among catchers. I want to see if his durabilty is a big weakness or maybe that last year was a fluke  or maybe brought on by having to catch Wake so many games last year. Other teams might be looking at the same thing.  You have used fangraph's a lot to pick Salty's game apart , but they do have his current value at $7M (4th out of 30 catchers in MLB). While his defensive portion of the WAR places him at 21st out of 30, he is not the "worst" or "2nd to worst" as you have used fangraphs to imply he is. While 21st is a weakness not a plus, I think his last 3 months have been a plus or at least a nonfactor. I don't see why anyone would want to "end the experiment" in the midst of a 3 month trend to the good. What's the hurry on Lava? If Lava hits 15 HRs for the next 2 months, it won't change Salty's value. Not playing Salty will... to the bad. As I have said, I'm fine with trading Salty. I read somewhere he was the center of a big trade proposal a few days back. I wouldn't be surprised at all. I understand that playing him the rest of the year could lower his value if he wimps out, but with proper resting, I think it is a bigger chance for value loss if we bench him now than if we play him 60% of the games the rest of this season. No matter what happenes the rest of this year, lava will have a clear shot next year. He will get some scattered PAs this year, and maybe more if Papi remains out for a while, or if we are clearly out of it. (Sidenote: you want to count Salty's seasons with 153 to 310 PAs as "MLB seasons", but when I wanted to lower the fangraphs PAs to include 30 to 60 MLb catchers as comparisons against Salty, you said they shouldn't count.)
    Posted by moonslav59

    I don't think they should count as much as comparing him to other starting level catchers. they should count but why should sme guy with 20 games played be compared with Salty when we can compare Salty with other starting level catchers. It's similar to like saying some OF is as good a pitcher as Verlander after he throws 1 inning of SO ball. It is not as good a data point IMO.

    I quoted ESPN, FANGRAPHS, a leading writer on Fangraphs who had him 84th out of 88 catchers in defensive value.  A lot of reputable references. Look at soxprospects on this issue. To them he is a consensus negative defensive catcher who should have been traded at the deadline.

    We can agree to disagree. He is not getting traded at this point anyway right. He gets traded next winter or he probably platoons with Lavarnway. We will see what happens. I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he hits 20 more HR in the next month. I just want to win and right now, we are not winning. I'm open to change. I've seen enough to think just maybe we should change our starting catcher. I agree we might lose some value with Salty but i sure would like to see what Lavarnway has got, and allow him to develop a little at the mlb level so we can improve our options next year with him or without him. 

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I don't think they should count as much as comparing him to other starting level catchers. they should count but why should sme guy with 20 games played be compared with Salty when we can compare Salty with other starting level catchers. It's similar to like saying some OF is as good a pitcher as Verlander after he throws 1 inning of SO ball. It is not as good a data point IMO.

    Boom, you were saying Salty was the worst or 2nd worst MLB catcher at certain things, but the group was only 14-15 catchers. Are there, or are there not 30 MLB starting catchers?

    There are only 35 MLB catchers with over 350 innings caught this year.

    To get to 30 catchers, the innings cutoff has to be 400 innings. That's a pace of about 600 innings over a season. 

    I think you are trying to play it both ways by saying salty has played  5 MLB seasons, but wont count 600 innings as a starting catcher.

    I quoted ESPN, FANGRAPHS, a leading writer on Fangraphs who had him 84th out of 88 catchers in defensive value. 

    This is ewactly what I mean by using selective sample sizes. You won't let me expand fangraphs to 30 catchers to more accurately reflect where Salty places among the MLB 30 team's top catchers, but you are OK to use a list of 88 catchers, because it works in favor of your position?

    You don't see a contradiction here?

     A lot of reputable references. Look at soxprospects on this issue. To them he is a consensus negative defensive catcher who should have been traded at the deadline.

    The numbers do show he is a negative this year and over his career, but you don't seem to want to acknowledge that Salty has much better numbers since May 1st.

    Had Salty done great in April, but poorly over the last 3 months, I'd be with you 100% on giving Lava his chance sooner than he is probably ready for.

    We can agree to disagree. He is not getting traded at this point anyway right. He gets traded next winter or he probably platoons with Lavarnway. We will see what happens. I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he hits 20 more HR in the next month. I just want to win and right now, we are not winning. I'm open to change. I've seen enough to think just maybe we should change our starting catcher. I agree we might lose some value with Salty but i sure would like to see what Lavarnway has got, and allow him to develop a little at the mlb level so we can improve our options next year with him or without him. 

    Boom, we all want us to win now. What we are questioning is the choice of one of our strengths to try and improve on. You have spent a large percent of your energy on trying to show that of all the positions on this team, a change at catcher is the most called for...

    -despite the fact that Salty has done well with the staff for 3 months.

    -despite the fact that Salty actually rates as about the 21st worst out of 30 MLb starting catchers on defense, not 29th, and these numbers incluse a pathetic April.

    -despite the fact that the area you are most critical of Salty on (defense) is the area everyone says Lava needs more work on.

    -despite the fact that Lava is just 24 and would have lost a year of team control in exchange for a few more days or weeks this year.

    -despite the fact that increasing Salty's trade value depends on him playing FT or near FT.

    Trading Salty this past deadline might have been the best idea, but none of us know of any specific deals mentioned, if any. Trading Lava might turn out to be the team's choice as well, but it better be as par of a package for a top notch starter.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
      Heck, Lavarnway has only played 2 games........  Give him a break, he is the best overall catcher that we have !!!
    Posted by Bill-806


    After 2 games?  Or are you referring to his entire 9 game career as a catcher?
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    With some of the small sample sizes we've seen some of these guys use, I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing some Lava-bashing soon.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    moon, first, thank you, that post of yours was very heartwarming and despite the policeman CalzPike, I was a Tito supporter for all of his years as a Sox manager albeit with late reservations over some of his lineups last few years. Second, I'm just tired of the Saltman Bashing by crazed/boom others. I stand by my bashing of the "hype" of Lavarnway because a lot of this is hype. As Notin said, 9 games so far as a MLB catcher. Sorry, little early to paint him as the team's catcher of the future. And when I see a Lavarnway crack HRs the way Salty has, I'll prop him deservedly, but Salty should be catching more. Ear infection/food poisoning seems like stories invented--but if true--then this series showed me that Shoppach doesn't make that big a difference. In fact, Salty does a great job with Aceves, but Shoppach not so much. 
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    For a lot of people, posters who were blaming the 1st half on the injuries, and were anticipating the return of CC, the long, long, long awaited arrival of Lavarnway, who dubbed Cook a staff savior, and felt Doubront was pushed aside last year because of Wakefield....well, you got your wish. Is the team winning? Nope. No different than the first half. CC really answered the bell tonight, so it was kind of sad the Sox didn't hold on. Bottom line, team chemistry is at its lowest and apparently this team was not built to win. Maintaining any kind of good streak is impossible. Maybe when Ortiz finally returns it will make a difference, but certainly now we see Doubront and Cook turning into Lester/Beckett with Clay being the only certainty and Morales brushed aside when he was doing well. Sort of like Mortenson not having a regular spot in the pen, or Podsednik getting a spot on the roster. You do well, you don't get rewarded....seems to be the mantra...Salty still has 20 home runs and they sat him twice, and the team lost twice. So much for Shoppach/Lavarnway resulting in winning ways. 
    Posted by dannycater


    Don't forget thee people cried over AGon for two years and absolutely had to have him.  They also wanted Papelbon gone in the worst way simply because the Sox had another releif pitcher not getting saves. How awful!!

    Oh, and a lot of them wanted Tito gone, for reasosa, as far as I can tell, realetd to the fact that he didn't bunt when they felt he needed to.

    One might think Sox fans have learned they might not want what they wish for, but somehow it never does....
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    FACE IT FOLKS, THE RED SOX JUST DON'T HAVE THE BATS TO
    COMPETE.  IF YOU PUT A LINEUP ON THE FIELD WHICH INCLUDES
    CIRIACO [DESPITE HIS ONE HR], ELLSBURY, PEDROIA, AGON,
    MIDDLEBROOKS, SHOPPACH, AVILES,  ETC. ETC....YOU ARE NOT
    GONNA WIN GAMES.  IT IS NOT THE SAME KIND OF LINEUP
    THAT THE YANKS, RANGERS, TIGERS, OR ANGELS CAN RUN UP
    THERE.  THAT IS WHAT GETS TO THE PLAYOFFS, NOT A LINEUP
    WITH CIRIACO, CC, ELLS, SHOPPACH, NAVA, AVILES, OR SALTY.
    THERE ARE NO REAL THREATS TO GO DEEP IN THIS LINEUP, EVEN
    WITH PAPI RETURNING, YOU NEED MORE THAN HIM. SO BOSTON
    FANS, SAY HELLO TO LAST PLACE....NO BATS NO ARMS...WHADDYA
    EXPECT  ??? 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Wolfpack13. Show Wolfpack13's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    It's just odd to single out this group of players when our "closer" blew the game.

    Obviously need to give Lavarnway more time, but I do see cater's point-- Sox fans (maybe all fans) think the guy in AAA or at the end of the bench is the answer. 95% of the time players are exactly where they should be.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    It's just odd to single out this group of players when our "closer" blew the game. Obviously need to give Lavarnway more time, but I do see cater's point-- Sox fans (maybe all fans) think the guy in AAA or at the end of the bench is the answer. 95% of the time players are exactly where they should be.
    Posted by Wolfpack13


    Aceves definately took a lot out of this club last night after Ciriaco's HR.  We need better offense and pitching during the off season and it starts with youngsters like Middy, Lav and Ciriaco.  People can bash them all they want but they all should turn out better than what we began the season with.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    I don't think they should count as much as comparing him to other starting level catchers. they should count but why should sme guy with 20 games played be compared with Salty when we can compare Salty with other starting level catchers. It's similar to like saying some OF is as good a pitcher as Verlander after he throws 1 inning of SO ball. It is not as good a data point IMO. Boom, you were saying Salty was the worst or 2nd worst MLB catcher at certain things, but the group was only 14-15 catchers. Are there, or are there not 30 MLB starting catchers? There are only 35 MLB catchers with over 350 innings caught this year. To get to 30 catchers, the innings cutoff has to be 400 innings. That's a pace of about 600 innings over a season.  I think you are trying to play it both ways by saying salty has played  5 MLB seasons, but wont count 600 innings as a starting catcher. I quoted ESPN, FANGRAPHS, a leading writer on Fangraphs who had him 84th out of 88 catchers in defensive value.  This is ewactly what I mean by using selective sample sizes. You won't let me expand fangraphs to 30 catchers to more accurately reflect where Salty places among the MLB 30 team's top catchers, but you are OK to use a list of 88 catchers, because it works in favor of your position? You don't see a contradiction here?  A lot of reputable references. Look at soxprospects on this issue. To them he is a consensus negative defensive catcher who should have been traded at the deadline. The numbers do show he is a negative this year and over his career, but you don't seem to want to acknowledge that Salty has much better numbers since May 1st. Had Salty done great in April, but poorly over the last 3 months, I'd be with you 100% on giving Lava his chance sooner than he is probably ready for. We can agree to disagree. He is not getting traded at this point anyway right. He gets traded next winter or he probably platoons with Lavarnway. We will see what happens. I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he hits 20 more HR in the next month. I just want to win and right now, we are not winning. I'm open to change. I've seen enough to think just maybe we should change our starting catcher. I agree we might lose some value with Salty but i sure would like to see what Lavarnway has got, and allow him to develop a little at the mlb level so we can improve our options next year with him or without him.  Boom, we all want us to win now. What we are questioning is the choice of one of our strengths to try and improve on. You have spent a large percent of your energy on trying to show that of all the positions on this team, a change at catcher is the most called for... -despite the fact that Salty has done well with the staff for 3 months. -despite the fact that Salty actually rates as about the 21st worst out of 30 MLb starting catchers on defense, not 29th, and these numbers incluse a pathetic April. -despite the fact that the area you are most critical of Salty on (defense) is the area everyone says Lava needs more work on. -despite the fact that Lava is just 24 and would have lost a year of team control in exchange for a few more days or weeks this year. -despite the fact that increasing Salty's trade value depends on him playing FT or near FT. Trading Salty this past deadline might have been the best idea, but none of us know of any specific deals mentioned, if any. Trading Lava might turn out to be the team's choice as well, but it better be as par of a package for a top notch starter.
    Posted by moonslav59

    I don't have time to respond to all these posts but at no time have I discredited a single data point you have given here Moon. Why are people discrediting mine when they are also reputable and I would say also clearly salient? ESPN. FANGRAPHS....etc. I don't want to cite the data AGAIN but they are very definative. Salty is NOT a good defensive catcher. A negative defensive WAR is not good and is pretty difficult to argue against. A negative 7 DRS at this point in the season is pretty difficult to overlook. About the only good thing Salty appears to do well is hit HR, which can be a very streaky process. Fortunately his trend line in the HR department is up. He is worth something. We should trade him or play him. That decision is above my pay grade but as HR are often a streaky process I'd trade him.

    I don't get why when Reddick hits a lot of HR it's "Just wait, he won't continue it" ( by some here ) but when Salty does it we think it is the start of Harmon Killebrew's career? It may not continue. And there is no indication that any other part of his game is really improving. Yes I do discount one aspect of your analysis ( I guess ). I don't give a lot of credence to his CERA in the last 3 months. I still see a whopping 4.65 score for the year. I even discount that but the larger the sample size for CERA, the more significant that data point is. 
     
    I know this seems like a bashing process but I really have nothing personal against Salty. He seems like a nice guy and he's working hard. It's just that we have had a long time with him as our starting catcher and the pitching staff does not seem to be benefiting from his involvement and we do have a guy waiting in the wings who saves us money and to me looks like he probably is better. I'm just trying to improve the team. I also like and admire Ortiz but if it improves the team, by freeing up a lot of cash and giving us several other advantages I would maximize the team's utility for gain by making an objective decision with him also. 

    My best characterization of my position on the team is that I'm probably an autistic wannabe GM. It's the facts. Not emotion. I just want to win. Salty is of value, as is Ortiz. IMO, we can more cost effectively address team needs in the post Crawford era, by managing our cash better. The new CBA warrants this need even more than the old one did. Theo left us in a cash poor position. We need to really focus what cash and other resources we have on overall team needs. Manage our resources better to optimize of chances for success long term. 

    The new CBA really demands it. I don't think it's impact has really set in yet with most people here. We now have very few overslot signing advantages. Revenue is spread around the league with a more even distribution. We need to manage our resources more prudently. The league took the silver spoon out of our mouth. It may still be in our hand and we can still use it some but we are clearly on a diet going forward. We have to look for fat to trim.

    Finally, I think and have mantained for some time now that we could have called up Lavarnway when he started his hot streak in June without losing service time. Certainly by July 1st. That was a non issue. It appears that that assessment was accurate.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    It's just odd to single out this group of players when our "closer" blew the game. Obviously need to give Lavarnway more time, but I do see cater's point-- Sox fans (maybe all fans) think the guy in AAA or at the end of the bench is the answer. 95% of the time players are exactly where they should be.
    Posted by Wolfpack13


    All fans.

    That's why in football, it's pretty well known that the most popular guy on any losing team is the backup QB...
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    That's what gets to me the most. Last year, thanks mostly to softy, most of the blame for our losing was placed on our back-up catcher (VTek) who was the best #2 catcher in MLB, our 6th starter (Wake) who was over-used but still led the team to a winning record in hsi starts, and our best starter (Beckett) who ended the season with 2 bad starts.

    Now, Salty is clearly the target of most of the criticism. 

    Part of it is because we have the super prospect, Lavarnway, waiting in the wings, but 24 year old catchers rarely improve pitching staffs.

    Part of it is because of his low OBP and high K-rate, but most posters don't realize just how poor 90% of baseball teams' catchers are doing offensively.

    Part of it is over his low CS rate that might lead to 2-3 more runs allowed this year.

    Part of it is based on his career numbers, which are mostly a few starts here and a few starts there at very early ages for a developing catcher. The learning curve of a ML catcher (by age and experience) is different from other positions, and Salty is nearing or at the point where imrovement should be noticable. If we look at his numbers since May 1st, they have been. 

    When CERA is used correctly: pitcher by pitcher, Salty's numbers have more often than not improved over 2011, even with Beckett & Lester losing velocity and pitchers in new roles. While Shoppach has done better with more pitchers than Salty, the margin of doing better pitcher by pitcher is less than the same comparisons last year with VTek.

    There are so many other reasons why the Sox are struggling this year (and last September as well), and the catcher position is not one of them. Some aspects of the position have not been pluses, but in the total scheme of things, catcher short-comings should not be occupying the plurality of this boards discussion on what is wrong with this team. 

    The Salty-Shoppach platoon has been one of this team's strengths by a wide margin.
    Most catcher HRs with 25.
    Second best catcher SLG% at .492
    7th best catcher OPS at .796
    9th best wOBA at .338
    9th best wRC+ at 108
    10th in WAR at +2.8 (Value at $12.5M)
    16th in defense as a component of WAR at -0.7

    Let's move on to other areas, like the fact that no Sox starter with over 5 starts has an ERA under 4.54 or a WHIP under 1.200. Our starters rank #17 in WAR, 26th in ERA, 20th in SIERA, and 27th in tERA. We are also 23rd in WHIP at 1.37.

    Our relief pitchers are ranked 6th in WAR, but are 21st in saves (25) and 6th in blown saves with 15.

    We hear a lot about Salty's K-rate, lack of walks, and lack of plate discipline, but here are some interesting tidbits:

    K/BB
    Midd  6.40
    Aviles 4.90
    Salty   4.23

    Middlebrooks, Aviles, Sweeney, AGon, and Pedey all have worse BB%s than our catcher, Salty's 7.3%. In fact the team average is 7.4%.

    AB/HR
    1) Salty  13.9
    2) Papi   13.9
    3) Ross   17.3
    4) Midds  19.9
    (League avg 31.3)
    AGon 41.5

    AB/RBI
    1) Midd  5.2
    2) Ross  5.3
    3) Papi  5.5
    4) Salty 6.0

    Pitches Taken per PA
    4) Salty   3.97
    5) Pedey 3.94
    6) Papi    3.91
    7) Midds  3.86
    league avg 3.84

    Team Neutralized batting OPS:
    1) Papi   1.024
    2) Ross    .850
    3) Midd    .816
    4) Salty    .790
    5) AGon   .789
    6) Youk   .771
    7) Nava   .770
    8) Pedey .717
    9) Aviles .678
    10) Swee .675

    If the blame game has to be played, our sites need to be turned elsewhere.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook



    Teams like the Yankees and Oakland A's have been dealing with a lot of injuries too.  But they are playing very well. 

    I cannot wait until football season starts.  Tom Brady is our only hope for the rest of the year. 
     
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