CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I want to make something clear that I think was not--I'm not trying to rip into Ryan Lavarnway the player at all. I just don't think that when the team has invested time/enegy in Salty, and seem to have certainly gotten some offensive results in that 20-HR catchers are not exactly a big supply in MLB, that running to the next "big" thing in Lavarnway is going to do much for the team. I like the Shoppach-Salty combo, and people kept citing Shoppach's W-L record with the team as a starter--but it seems that's dropped a lot since he caught more games. Salty has had a stretch of games where he stopped catching--I think it's hurt the team...To hear the stories of his "sickness" is it an ear infection (2 sources) or food poisoning (2 sources)--it just makes you wonder about what is going on over there on/off the field. I asked for Lavarnway to be called up the moment Ortiz went on the DL--so did probably 90 percent of the regular forum posters. It was the right call. Instead we see Salty being used as a DH more of late and not at catcher, but only after Ciriaco and Nava were forcefed at DH in the No. 2 slot. As for CC, he's the poster child of negativity--some brought on by himself. I admire that he's actually done some offensive things of late--3 dingers--a 3-hit game, but the damage is done with him. Of course, Cook and Doubront have been nothing short of a disaster over the last several starts only after seeing Lester seemingly start to turn things around a bit. Anyway, BV alluded to not liking to use 3 catchers--is that another rip on the FO and BV's disconnect? If the season is indeed over, then I can understand experimenting. If it's not, I expect to see Salty catching more not less.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]Teams like the Yankees and Oakland A's have been dealing with a lot of injuries too.  But they are playing very well.  I cannot wait until football season starts.  Tom Brady is our only hope for the rest of the year. 
    Posted by Ice-Cream[/QUOTE]

    Not all injuries are equal.

    Losing, say, Brett Gardner is really not the same as losing Ellsbury, Crawford, Sweeney and Ross all at once.  Along with 3 other outfielders. 

    Losing Rivera was a bad one for NY, but they had a $10mill setup guy who could step in (and has, very effectively).  If the Sox even had a $10mill set up guy, that would be a ridiculous use of payroll and questionable judgment...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I don't have time to respond to all these posts but at no time have I discredited a single data point you have given here Moon. Why are people discrediting mine when they are also reputable and I would say also clearly salient? ESPN. FANGRAPHS....etc.

    Because your stats were misleading and you varied your sample size to fit your position. You used the top 88 catchers when one guy had salty at #84, but used the top 14 to 15 catchers to say Salty was worst or second worst, implying out of all MLB starting catchers.

     I don't want to cite the data AGAIN but they are very definative.

    No, they were very misleading. Saying Salty is #14 out of the top 15 catchers by innings caught is one thing, but it is not the best definitive stat. A more "definitive" stat would be where does he place out of the top 30 MLB catchers, since there are 30 teams in MLB. I would argue we should use 40-45 or even 60, but 30 is way more definitive than 14 or 15 when his placement suits your case.

    Why not use 88 catchers for all of your categories, since you used it for one?

     Salty is NOT a good defensive catcher. A negative defensive WAR is not good and is pretty difficult to argue against. A negative 7 DRS at this point in the season is pretty difficult to overlook. About the only good thing Salty appears to do well is hit HR, which can be a very streaky process. Fortunately his trend line in the HR department is up. He is worth something. We should trade him or play him. That decision is above my pay grade but as HR are often a streaky process I'd trade him.

    You have not responded to the post May 1st argument. Isn't that pretty "difficult to overlook"? Could it possibly be true that Salty "got it" around May 1st and not by the neatly divided stats found season by season?
     
    I know this seems like a bashing process but I really have nothing personal against Salty.

    Bashing doesn't have to be personal, and I know you want Salty to do well, but you have chosen the catcher position to vent most of your criticism on what is wrong with this team and where the best chance is to improve on.

     He seems like a nice guy and he's working hard. It's just that we have had a long time with him as our starting catcher and the pitching staff does not seem to be benefiting from his involvement and we do have a guy waiting in the wings who saves us money and to me looks like he probabl the team, by freeing up a lot of cash and giving us several other advantages I would maximize the team's utility for gain by making an objective decision with him also. 

    I have never argued that there is potential to improve at the catcher position, my point has been that a team usually looks to improve itself by finding the weakest link and trying to improve that area first. Our catcher position is a strength, and you want to try and make it a better strength with a 24 year old catcher who scouts say has defensive issues, and who will likely need a long learning curve to helping our pitching staff improve.

    Yes, your position has been argued against fiercly by some, but I respect your position, and you may turn out to be right, but I do question your selectivity of stats and comparative sample size adjustments to suit your argument.

    My best characterization of my position on the team is that I'm probably an autistic wannabe GM. It's the facts. Not emotion. I just want to win. Salty is of value, as is Ortiz. IMO, we can more cost effectively address team needs in the post Crawford era, by managing our cash better. The new CBA warrants this need even more than the old one did. Theo left us in a cash poor position. We need to really focus what cash and other resources we have on overall team needs. Manage our resources better to optimize of chances for success long term. 

    I agree, and letting Papi walk or trading Salty this winter might have to happen to fill greater needs elsewhere, and that is why I think Salty needs to play 60%+ of the remaining games to keep or gain value and for us to evaluate his stamina question as well as the question about whether his post May 1st numbers with the staff are a fluke.

    The new CBA really demands it. I don't think it's impact has really set in yet with most people here. We now have very few overslot signing advantages. Revenue is spread around the league with a more even distribution. We need to manage our resources more prudently. The league took the silver spoon out of our mouth. It may still be in our hand and we can still use it some but we are clearly on a diet going forward. We have to look for fat to trim.

    Finally, I think and have mantained for some time now that we could have called up Lavarnway when he started his hot streak in June without losing service time. Certainly by July 1st. That was a non issue. It appears that that assessment was accurate.

    Are you sure we would have not lost a year's service if we brought him up in June? July 1st? If you are correct, your position is strengthed in hindsight, since Salty slumped, but I have not read a definitive answer to the lost service time exact date that Lava could be brought up.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I want to make something clear that I think was not--I'm not trying to rip into Ryan Lavarnway the player at all. I just don't think that when the team has invested time/enegy in Salty, and seem to have certainly gotten some offensive results in that 20-HR catchers are not exactly a big supply in MLB, that running to the next "big" thing in Lavarnway is going to do much for the team. I like the Shoppach-Salty combo, and people kept citing Shoppach's W-L record with the team as a starter--but it seems that's dropped a lot since he caught more games.

    Also, since Shoppach primarily catches only vs LH'd starters, isn't the fact that we hit lefties .034 OPS better than righties have something to do with it?
    Runs scored when LH'er starts: 5.12
    Runs scored when RH'er starts: 4.68


     Salty has had a stretch of games where he stopped catching--I think it's hurt the team...To hear the stories of his "sickness" is it an ear infection (2 sources) or food poisoning (2 sources)--it just makes you wonder about what is going on over there on/off the field. I asked for Lavarnway to be called up the moment Ortiz went on the DL--so did probably 90 percent of the regular forum posters. It was the right call. Instead we see Salty being used as a DH more of late and not at catcher, but only after Ciriaco and Nava were forcefed at DH in the No. 2 slot. 

    I agree, as long as the few days didn't mess with Lava's years of service. Would any of us really wanted Lava a few days earlier and lose a full year of service in his prime later?

    As for CC, he's the poster child of negativity--some brought on by himself. I admire that he's actually done some offensive things of late--3 dingers--a 3-hit game, but the damage is done with him. 

    At least CC is known as one of the hardest workers in MLB 365 days a year.

    Of course, Cook and Doubront have been nothing short of a disaster over the last several starts only after seeing Lester seemingly start to turn things around a bit. Anyway, BV alluded to not liking to use 3 catchers--is that another rip on the FO and BV's disconnect? If the season is indeed over, then I can understand experimenting. If it's not, I expect to see Salty catching more not less.

    Even if we are writing off the season, I think we need to answer the Salty stamina question more than we need to try and make sense of a 2 month lava sample size as our Ft catcher.

    If we bench Salty now, we still don't know if we can count on him for a full season. We still won't know if his improved work with our staff over the last 3 months was a fluke.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    moon, and to further that I'd be willing to let Salty go for 5 games in a row and see about that stamina. Also, Magadan should try to get him to go lefty only and learn how to hit lefties...I always felt Tek hurt himself in the later years not sticking to one side of the dish. Switch-hitting catchers are in my mind--unnecessary.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    There was substantial discussion somewhere here just a week or so ago Moon on the service time issue which i believe confirmed my position. Certainly by July 1st we could have brought him up. I'm very busy today with work and will be out of the office most of today. Possibly I can look it up later tonight.

    I've tried not to be selective in my data. I used what appeared to me to be very reputable sources and they appear to me to be quite definitive. Salty does not appear to me to be a plus defender. Not even a single aspect of his defensive attributes appear to be a plus to me. Right down to blocking the plate, throwing out runners, agilty in getting to bunts, CERA...etc. Negative defensive WAR ( how often does that happen? ). -7 DRS by fangraphs. A leading writer on Fangraphs had him 84 out of 88 Moon. I'm not cherry picking here.

    After all of this I'm not saying Salty is a horrible catcher. It is probably a position of strength for us. So is Ortiz obviously. My  point is that sometimes you trade from a position of strength, when you have someone available who can step in, simply to have the cash or resources needed in another area.

    For example, allow Ortiz to go to free up $16 mil for a starting pitcher. Last winter that could have been Buerhle. Which is exactly what I wanted to do. I think even with Ortiz's great year we may well have been better off having Buerhle. Unfortunately he took arbitration which I did not project accurately. Nor did I project that Ortiz would have such a great year. But sometimes a team should trade from a position of strength when the production from that spot can be replaced more cost effectively. 

    The likelihood that Salty might make $6-7 mil in arb next winter is a factor in all of this. Some teams trade almost all their players before they reach 2nd year arb.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    There was substantial discussion somewhere here just a week or so ago Moon on the service time issue which i believe confirmed my position. Certainly by July 1st we could have brought him up. I'm very busy today with work and will be out of the office most of today. Possibly I can look it up later tonight.

    I'm not doubting your claim, but I have heard various positions on this years of service issue, including softy's position that we won't know the number on "super twos" until after the season.

    I've tried not to be selective in my data. I used what appeared to me to be very reputable sources and they appear to me to be quite definitive. Salty does not appear to me to be a plus defender. Not even a single aspect of his defensive attributes appear to be a plus to me. Right down to blocking the plate, throwing out runners, agilty in getting to bunts, CERA...etc. Negative defensive WAR ( how often does that happen? ). -7 DRS by fangraphs. A leading writer on Fangraphs had him 84 out of 88 Moon. I'm not cherry picking here.

    I have never tried to say Salty has been a plus on defense this year, but I was questioning your defense of a sample size 88 catchers large, but said my expansion of the fangraph's lists you used to 30 catchers was not right. 

    I am not saying Salty is plus even after May 1st this year, but I am quite certain, there has been a big improvement, especially in CERA-related areas. My guess is he has been about average since May 1st. If he continues to be average on defense and CERA, his offense as compared to MLB catchers makes him a plus. Fangraphs has him as a pretty biug plus even counting his full season defense negatively, he's at a $7.2M value right now (tied for 14th).

    After all of this I'm not saying Salty is a horrible catcher. It is probably a position of strength for us. So is Ortiz obviously. My  point is that sometimes you trade from a position of strength, when you have someone available who can step in, simply to have the cash or resources needed in another area.

    i agree, and think one of our catchers will be traded this winter, unless Papi walks and Lava can DH.

    For example, allow Ortiz to go to free up $16 mil for a starting pitcher. Last winter that could have been Buerhle. Which is exactly what I wanted to do. I think even with Ortiz's great year we may well have been better off having Buerhle. Unfortunately he took arbitration which I did not project accurately. Nor did I project that Ortiz would have such a great year. But sometimes a team should trade from a position of strength when the production from that spot can be replaced more cost effectively. 

    The likelihood that Salty might make $6-7 mil in arb next winter is a factor in all of this. Some teams trade almost all their players before they reach 2nd year arb.

    salty will be a very tradable commodity at $7M this winter. Perhaps we could have got more for 1.3 years of his service. I wouldn't have minded trading him this deadline if we got something good (like a top pitching prospect close to MLB ready).
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Doubrount may be hitting the wall. He seems to be struggling to throw strikes and with the associated higher pitch counts fatigue is becoming an issue.  The hot/humid summer isn't helping.  Cook had some nice starts but the league has learned to lay off the low junk and when he throws it in the middle of the plate, its hit a long way.  The problem is that the cupboard is pretty empty and they need to stick with these guys.  Morales is likely not the answer as a regular in the rotation - he's another one who's IP total is getting high and arm fatigue could set in.  And please, do not sign Derek Lowe as a stop gap - his recent numbers with Cleveland were horrible (ala 2011 Lackey horrible).

    CC has shown some good signs since returning but it looks like he's trying to be too much of a power hitter in order to live up to his contract.  When he was at his best with TB, he sprayed the ball all over the park and let his speed make things happen.  I think he'd have to have a 2011 Jacoby type year for fans to get off his back.

    Lava may or may not become a solid catcher.  He looks like he has the skills but really aside from that one game last year vs the Orioles, his credentials are in the minors.  Let's see what he does again in Sep, assuming he's sent down to make room for Papi if his foot ever feels pain free.  Hopefully Lava does enough to earn a shot as the regular in '13; otherwise I think they'll need to look at a trade.  Salty is another guy that looks like he's hitting the wall, same as last year.  He is what he is, some power, low average, many K's and below average defense.  Sox may be starting to face this reality much as Atlanta and Texas did.  Shopp is a journyman platoon guy having a plus year, but he's not a regular.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    some power?--20 HRs--and not playing every day....that's a lot of power.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]That's what gets to me the most. Last year, thanks mostly to softy, most of the blame for our losing was placed on our back-up catcher (VTek) who was the best #2 catcher in MLB, our 6th starter (Wake) who was over-used but still led the team to a winning record in hsi starts, and our best starter (Beckett) who ended the season with 2 bad starts. Now, Salty is clearly the target of most of the criticism.  Part of it is because we have the super prospect, Lavarnway, waiting in the wings, but 24 year old catchers rarely improve pitching staffs. Part of it is because of his low OBP and high K-rate, but most posters don't realize just how poor 90% of baseball teams' catchers are doing offensively. Part of it is over his low CS rate that might lead to 2-3 more runs allowed this year. Part of it is based on his career numbers, which are mostly a few starts here and a few starts there at very early ages for a developing catcher. The learning curve of a ML catcher (by age and experience) is different from other positions, and Salty is nearing or at the point where imrovement should be noticable. If we look at his numbers since May 1st, they have been.  When CERA is used correctly: pitcher by pitcher, Salty's numbers have more often than not improved over 2011, even with Beckett & Lester losing velocity and pitchers in new roles. While Shoppach has done better with more pitchers than Salty, the margin of doing better pitcher by pitcher is less than the same comparisons last year with VTek. There are so many other reasons why the Sox are struggling this year (and last September as well), and the catcher position is not one of them. Some aspects of the position have not been pluses, but in the total scheme of things, catcher short-comings should not be occupying the plurality of this boards discussion on what is wrong with this team.  The Salty-Shoppach platoon has been one of this team's strengths by a wide margin. Most catcher HRs with 25. Second best catcher SLG% at .492 7th best catcher OPS at .796 9th best wOBA at .338 9th best wRC+ at 108 10th in WAR at +2.8 (Value at $12.5M) 16th in defense as a component of WAR at -0.7 Let's move on to other areas, like the fact that no Sox starter with over 5 starts has an ERA under 4.54 or a WHIP under 1.200. Our starters rank #17 in WAR, 26th in ERA, 20th in SIERA, and 27th in tERA. We are also 23rd in WHIP at 1.37. Our relief pitchers are ranked 6th in WAR, but are 21st in saves (25) and 6th in blown saves with 15. We hear a lot about Salty's K-rate, lack of walks, and lack of plate discipline, but here are some interesting tidbits: K/BB Midd  6.40 Aviles 4.90 Salty   4.23 Middlebrooks, Aviles, Sweeney, AGon, and Pedey all have worse BB%s than our catcher, Salty's 7.3%. In fact the team average is 7.4%. AB/HR 1) Salty  13.9 2) Papi   13.9 3) Ross   17.3 4) Midds  19.9 (League avg 31.3) AGon 41.5 AB/RBI 1) Midd  5.2 2) Ross  5.3 3) Papi  5.5 4) Salty 6.0 Pitches Taken per PA 4) Salty   3.97 5) Pedey 3.94 6) Papi    3.91 7) Midds  3.86 league avg 3.84 Team Neutralized batting OPS: 1) Papi   1.024 2) Ross    .850 3) Midd    .816 4) Salty    .790 5) AGon   .789 6) Youk   .771 7) Nava   .770 8) Pedey .717 9) Aviles .678 10) Swee .675 If the blame game has to be played, our sites need to be turned elsewhere.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    moon, theres no doubt we can blame a lot of different people for our lack of success.   This entire season has been an OBP disaster and our best players are all part of it.  Our staff is also horrible outside of a select few so you are absolutely right, we can't just blame a few.
     
    However, we can and should upgrade the worst areas or this team goes nowhere again next season.  Unfortunately this might mean losing a big part of any offense we have had in Papi.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    See, I lke drewski's take on Ortiz. It's one that is not actually thought of regarding his spot. Many of you are saying it's the DH spot that he occupies. But the fact is that he's the team's best no. 3 hitter, one of the best in baseball, and that is something to think about before simply letting him go. The team sorely misses him, and it's been worse since he's been on the DL. The team needs a guy who can hit for power, RBI, and get on base--all of Ortiz's attributes. I feel the team should not give up on that, but add to that. 
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]See, I lke drewski's take on Ortiz. It's one that is not actually thought of regarding his spot. Many of you are saying it's the DH spot that he occupies. But the fact is that he's the team's best no. 3 hitter, one of the best in baseball, and that is something to think about before simply letting him go. The team sorely misses him, and it's been worse since he's been on the DL. The team needs a guy who can hit for power, RBI, and get on base--all of Ortiz's attributes. I feel the team should not give up on that, but add to that. 
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Like I said many times DC, a guy like Ryan Braun would greatly improve our team.  If we can't dump salary and lose Papi this team better find someone.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    no question, Ortiz is either irreplaceable or someone of his numbers must be brought in to at least match him stat for stat.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Back to salty. I decided to painstakenly go back game by game and record the innings and ERs allowed by our catchers. I want to point out that CERA is supposed to be used to compare catchers with individual pitchers one-by-one, so this presentation is flawed in this sense from the start, but here is one view: mine...

    I've been mentioning Salty's great CERA improvement since May 1st, when actually the improvement began April 26th after Salty's first 11 games of 2012. Salty had a recent 3 game meltdown vs Toronto and the Yanks from July 22nd to July 27th, and perhaps this is a clue to the beginning of a declining trend, but here are the numbers broken down by selected timeframes:

    April 5 to April 25 (17 games)
    Salty  7.23 (78 ERs in 97 innings)
    Shop  4.14 (29 ERs in 63 innings)

    April 26th to May 25th
    Salty  3.65  (68 ERS in 167.2 inn)
    Shop  4.20  (38 ERs in 81.1 inn)

    May 26th to  June 25th
    Salty  4.00  (76 in 171)
    Shop   3.08  (27 in 79)

    June 26th to July 21st
    Salty  3.40  (50 in 131.2)
    Shop  3.72  (29 in 70)

    July 22nd to Aug 4th
    Salty  6.78  (45 in 59.2)
    Shop  5.50  (22 in 36)
    Lava  5.00  (5 in 9)

    Another look at a different timeline:
    4/26-7/21  
    Salty   3.71 (194 in 470.1)
    Shop   3.67  (94 in 230.1)

    For about 3 months, Salty and Shoppach had nearly identical CERAs and Salty's 3.71 CERA was very respectable and a marked improvement over 2011 to April 25th of 2012.

    Finally, the toal numbers after April 25th:
    Salty   4.06  (239 in 530)
    Shop   3.91  (116 in 266.1) 

    Since pre April 25 to post...

      Salty went from 7.23 to 4.06  (-3.17)
      Shop went from 4.14 to 4.06  (-0.08)
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]no question, Ortiz is either irreplaceable or someone of his numbers must be brought in to at least match him stat for stat.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Not necessarily, let's look...

    Let's say Lava becomes the 2013 DH and hits:

    .280  20  80 in the same amount of PAs Papi ends up with this year.

    Yes, that's a big loss, but that could easily be made up for by Ellsbury having a 2011 type season vs our current .621 OPS by our CF'ers. Then, with the $15m saved on Papi, we could get a quality starting pitcher or use that money towards getting a guy like Josh Hamilton.

    Being able to rotate the DH position would also provide needed rest to several players without losing their bat in the line-up, and perhaps lessening future injuries. 

    Being able to rotate the DH position also allows for more roster flexibility like carrying 3 catchers (Lava DH'ing much of the time), or a speedster for late inning defense or pinch-running,  or have Aviles, Ciriaco, and Iggy on the 25 man roster at the same time, so we could pinch hit for one and still have replacements later, or go with 5 OF'ers.

    As I have said, I want Papi back. I have mentioned a 2 year contract with a 3rd year option, but losing Papi would not be the end of the world if we spend the $15m wisely and the drop off from Papi to Lava and others is not that great.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]Back to salty. I decided to painstakenly go back game by game and record the innings and ERs allowed by our catchers. I want to point out that CERA is supposed to be used to compare catchers with individual pitchers one-by-one, so this presentation is flawed in this sense from the start, but here is one view: mine... I've been mentioning Salty's great CERA improvement since May 1st, when actually the improvement began April 26th after Salty's first 11 games of 2012. Salty had a recent 3 game meltdown vs Toronto and the Yanks from July 22nd to July 27th, and perhaps this is a clue to the beginning of a declining trend, but here are the numbers broken down by selected timeframes: April 5 to April 25 (17 games) Salty  7.23 (78 ERs in 97 innings) Shop  4.14 (29 ERs in 63 innings) April 26th to May 25th Salty  3.65  (68 ERS in 167.2 inn) Shop  4.20  (38 ERs in 81.1 inn) May 26th to  June 25th Salty  4.00  (76 in 171) Shop   3.08  (27 in 79) June 26th to July 21st Salty  3.40  (50 in 131.2) Shop  3.72  (29 in 70) July 22nd to Aug 4th Salty  6.78  (45 in 59.2) Shop  5.50  (22 in 36) Lava  5.00  (5 in 9) Another look at a different timeline: 4/26-7/21   Salty   3.71 (194 in 470.1) Shop   3.67  (94 in 230.1) For about 3 months, Salty and Shoppach had nearly identical CERAs and Salty's 3.71 CERA was very respectable and a marked improvement over 2011 to April 25th of 2012. Finally, the toal numbers after April 25th: Salty   4.06  (239 in 530) Shop   3.91  (116 in 266.1)  Since pre April 25 to post...   Salty went from 7.23 to 4.06  (-3.17)   Shop went from 4.14 to 4.06  (-0.08)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Again, Moon, very good work on this topic. It's a pity ( at least ) that all this good work and YOUR numbers have drawn not even a minor concession from the Salty-bashers on this forum.

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : Not necessarily, let's look... Let's say Lava becomes the 2013 DH and hits: .280  20  80 in the same amount of PAs Papi ends up with this year. Yes, that's a big loss, but that could easily be made up for by Ellsbury having a 2011 type season vs our current .621 OPS by our CF'ers. Then, with the $15m saved on Papi, we could get a quality starting pitcher or use that money towards getting a guy like Josh Hamilton. Being able to rotate the DH position would also provide needed rest to several players without losing their bat in the line-up, and perhaps lessening future injuries.  Being able to rotate the DH position also allows for more roster flexibility like carrying 3 catchers (Lava DH'ing much of the time), or a speedster for late inning defense or pinch-running,  or have Aviles, Ciriaco, and Iggy on the 25 man roster at the same time, so we could pinch hit for one and still have replacements later, or go with 5 OF'ers. As I have said, I want Papi back. I have mentioned a 2 year contract with a 3rd year option, but losing Papi would not be the end of the world if we spend the $15m wisely and the drop off from Papi to Lava and others is not that great.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Good work moon but I think we need to look at how many years Salty has been in the league and behind the plate, along with how Lav progresses.  Salty has a lot of issues for a starting catcher.

    Career OBP of 303, four times as many SO as BB's etc.  The more you catch, the more he should improve defensively and with the staff, but there is a lot more to the game.  Salty may still improve offensively but he averages about .295 OBP career wise when playing more than 80 games.  I still have serious doubts for him other than equally shared duties with Lav next season. 
     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jgallag1. Show jgallag1's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I also don't like to think about the prospect of losing Papi from a statistical standpoint, but I think as far as a team mentality standpoint it might be necissary. He has been very untimely with his "I hate my contract" rants the past few seasons...piling on at the worst times. He has always been Papi first...which isn't terrible, but could be better. He's also really the last of the "old guard" if you will, and that's something that's tough to have hanging around when you're looking to the future. Then again, he's been a huge asset this year, and has always proven doubters wrong. I hope he continues.

    As far as Salty...I would have no problem with him being the everyday catcher with Lavarnway as the typically everyday DH. In fact, I see that being the way it plays out. Especially if the Sox go for a Hamilton type for RF. I would rather see them make their moves for a SP though.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]I also don't like to think about the prospect of losing Papi from a statistical standpoint, but I think as far as a team mentality standpoint it might be necissary. He has been very untimely with his "I hate my contract" rants the past few seasons...piling on at the worst times. He has always been Papi first...which isn't terrible, but could be better. He's also really the last of the "old guard" if you will, and that's something that's tough to have hanging around when you're looking to the future. Then again, he's been a huge asset this year, and has always proven doubters wrong. I hope he continues. As far as Salty...I would have no problem with him being the everyday catcher with Lavarnway as the typically everyday DH. In fact, I see that being the way it plays out. Especially if the Sox go for a Hamilton type for RF. I would rather see them make their moves for a SP though.
    Posted by jgallag1[/QUOTE]

    Papi's money may be the only thing we have to improve this club.  As far as Salty as our starter again without more support.  You can only carry so many weak hitters in the starting lineup and expect to have a good season, unless there are enough offensive weapons in other areas.  This has been proven time and time again with this club over the years.

    We need another big bat, if we lose Papi "probably two" unless guys like Ells, AGon and Pede have big years. The only other way is if Salty himself improves.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Good work moon but I think we need to look at how many years Salty has been in the league and behind the plate, along with how Lav progresses.  Salty has a lot of issues for a starting catcher.

    1) Most MLb catchers today have many many "issues" offensively and/or defensively.

    2) Vtek didn't "get it" until he was 30, and my guess is that most decent all-around catchers don't put it all together until after 27 (Salty's current age).

    3) Expecting Lava "to get it" at age 24, when he didn't even play catcher all his years in college is , in my opinion, reaching a lot farther than expecting a 27 year old catcher who has apparently turned it around CERA-wise to continuing growing until he is 29 or 30 or so. Lava hashad 2165 innings as a catcher in the minors. That's about 240 full games worth or 1.5 years of catching every game.

    4) Salty put in 358 games at catcher in the minors, but mostly at a very young age (18-25). Overlapped with his minor league play were sporadic attempts in the bigs. In 2007, at age 22, he played almost as many innings at 1B with Atlanta than catcher. Many want to think that Atlanta gave up on him, but they did get Teixeira for Salty and others. With texas, Salty got a shot at winning the job, buta also played 1B about as much as catcher his first year there. In 2008, he started just 52 games at catcher and then 82 in 2009 at ages 23 and 24. In 2010, he barely played in the Bigs at all. He has just over 3,000 innings as a MLB catcher at this point, but nearly half have come with Boston. While it seems like he should have gotten his act together after being in professional baseball since 2003, maybe he just recently has.

    Career OBP of 303, four times as many SO as BB's etc. 

    These are his worst two areas of offense, but they do not tell the whole picture, and when compared to the average catcher in MLB, they are not as bad as they appear.

     The more you catch, the more he should improve defensively and with the staff, but there is a lot more to the game.  

    He seems to have improved since his first 11 games this year with the staff and in other areas of defense besides CS%.


    Salty may still improve offensively but he averages about .295 OBP career wise when playing more than 80 games.  I still have serious doubts for him other than equally shared duties with Lav next season. 

    I have serious doubts about Salty going forward as well... in all areas of his game, but on important area is stamina, and this season is the last chance to test his duability before we will likely make the big catcher decision. I also have serious doubts about Lava's game and defensive skillset, especially how well he does with the staff. He's going to have to be  fast learner under the heat of the Boston spotlight, and there will be a lot of pressure on him if the staff declines, even if it is not toally his fault.

    Lava will get his chance soon.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]Good work moon but I think we need to look at how many years Salty has been in the league and behind the plate, along with how Lav progresses.  Salty has a lot of issues for a starting catcher. 1) Most MLb catchers today have many many "issues" offensively and/or defensively. 2) Vtek didn't "get it" until he was 30, and my guess is that most decent all-around catchers don't put it all together until after 27 (Salty's current age). 3) Expecting Lava "to get it" at age 24, when he didn't even play catcher all his years in college is , in my opinion, reaching a lot farther than expecting a 27 year old catcher who has apparently turned it around CERA-wise to continuing growing until he is 29 or 30 or so. Lava hashad 2165 innings as a catcher in the minors. That's about 240 full games worth or 1.5 years of catching every game. 4) Salty put in 358 games at catcher in the minors, but mostly at a very young age (18-25). Overlapped with his minor league play were sporadic attempts in the bigs. In 2007, at age 22, he played almost as many innings at 1B with Atlanta than catcher. Many want to think that Atlanta gave up on him, but they did get Teixeira for Salty and others. With texas, Salty got a shot at winning the job, buta also played 1B about as much as catcher his first year there. In 2008, he started just 52 games at catcher and then 82 in 2009 at ages 23 and 24. In 2010, he barely played in the Bigs at all. He has just over 3,000 innings as a MLB catcher at this point, but nearly half have come with Boston. While it seems like he should have gotten his act together after being in professional baseball since 2003, maybe he just recently has. Career OBP of 303, four times as many SO as BB's etc.  These are his worst two areas of offense, but they do not tell the whole picture, and when compared to the average catcher in MLB, they are not as bad as they appear.  The more you catch, the more he should improve defensively and with the staff, but there is a lot more to the game.   He seems to have improved since his first 11 games this year with the staff and in other areas of defense besides CS%. Salty may still improve offensively but he averages about .295 OBP career wise when playing more than 80 games.  I still have serious doubts for him other than equally shared duties with Lav next season.  I have serious doubts about Salty going forward as well... in all areas of his game, but on important area is stamina, and this season is the last chance to test his duability before we will likely make the big catcher decision. I also have serious doubts about Lava's game and defensive skillset, especially how well he does with the staff. He's going to have to be  fast learner under the heat of the Boston spotlight, and there will be a lot of pressure on him if the staff declines, even if it is not toally his fault. Lava will get his chance soon.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Like I said moon, all I want is whats best for the team.   If Salty improves great, otherwise we will need a lot more help in other areas than we have so far this season before really improving much overall. 

    Pitching is still the key regardless of who catches in the future. I also expect Lav to be a much faster learner overall than Salty with better tools but I could be wrong. The one thing I don't expect is for Lav or Middy to have big Youk/Papi type years for another year or two.  Guys like Pede, Ells, AGon and others will need to have a much better year.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : Papi's money may be the only thing we have to improve this club.  As far as Salty as our starter again without more support.  You can only carry so many weak hitters in the starting lineup and expect to have a good season, unless there are enough offensive weapons in other areas.  This has been proven time and time again with this club over the years. We need another big bat, if we lose Papi "probably two" unless guys like Ells, AGon and Pede have big years. The only other way is if Salty himself improves.
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]

    Not counting Papi, and figuring modest arb raises, we'll have about $28M to spend this winter to remain the same as now.

    If we spend $15M on Papi, $13M will not be enough to get Hamilton of a top quality starting pitcher.

    The choice could be:

    DH Papi ($15M)
    RF  Ross ($7M?)
    SP  Guthrie ($6M?)

    or

    DH Lava
    RF Hamilton ($22M)
    SP Guthrie ($6M)

    or
    DH Lava
    RF Ross ($7M?)
    SP Greinke ($16M)
    RP $4M pitcher

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook



    Who is Hamilton's agent?  If it's Scott Boras, then the Red Sox will need to borrow some money from Buffet or Gates.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : Not counting Papi, and figuring modest arb raises, we'll have about $28M to spend this winter to remain the same as now. If we spend $15M on Papi, $13M will not be enough to get Hamilton of a top quality starting pitcher. The choice could be: DH Papi ($15M) RF  Ross ($7M?) SP  Guthrie ($6M?) or DH Lava RF Hamilton ($22M) SP Guthrie ($6M) or DH Lava RF Ross ($7M?) SP Greinke ($16M) RP $4M pitcher
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I would love to find a way to dump salary and keep Papi moon but how likely is it we improve?  I just have little faith in our overall health these days for our present players to have the big years they are capable of.  I'm not even sure Hamilton can keep his head in the game if we were lucky enough to land him. 

     
     
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