posted at 8/5/2012 11:23 AM EDT
I don't have time to respond to all these posts but at no time have I discredited a single data point you have given here Moon. Why are people discrediting mine when they are also reputable and I would say also clearly salient? ESPN. FANGRAPHS....etc.
Because your stats were misleading and you varied your sample size to fit your position. You used the top 88 catchers when one guy had salty at #84, but used the top 14 to 15 catchers to say Salty was worst or second worst, implying out of all MLB starting catchers.
I don't want to cite the data AGAIN but they are very definative.
No, they were very misleading. Saying Salty is #14 out of the top 15 catchers by innings caught is one thing, but it is not the best definitive stat. A more "definitive" stat would be where does he place out of the top 30 MLB catchers, since there are 30 teams in MLB. I would argue we should use 40-45 or even 60, but 30 is way more definitive than 14 or 15 when his placement suits your case.
Why not use 88 catchers for all of your categories, since you used it for one?
Salty is NOT a good defensive catcher. A negative defensive WAR is not good and is pretty difficult to argue against. A negative 7 DRS at this point in the season is pretty difficult to overlook. About the only good thing Salty appears to do well is hit HR, which can be a very streaky process. Fortunately his trend line in the HR department is up. He is worth something. We should trade him or play him. That decision is above my pay grade but as HR are often a streaky process I'd trade him.
You have not responded to the post May 1st argument. Isn't that pretty "difficult to overlook"? Could it possibly be true that Salty "got it" around May 1st and not by the neatly divided stats found season by season?
I know this seems like a bashing process but I really have nothing personal against Salty.
Bashing doesn't have to be personal, and I know you want Salty to do well, but you have chosen the catcher position to vent most of your criticism on what is wrong with this team and where the best chance is to improve on.
He seems like a nice guy and he's working hard. It's just that we have had a long time with him as our starting catcher and the pitching staff does not seem to be benefiting from his involvement and we do have a guy waiting in the wings who saves us money and to me looks like he probabl the team, by freeing up a lot of cash and giving us several other advantages I would maximize the team's utility for gain by making an objective decision with him also.
I have never argued that there is potential to improve at the catcher position, my point has been that a team usually looks to improve itself by finding the weakest link and trying to improve that area first. Our catcher position is a strength, and you want to try and make it a better strength with a 24 year old catcher who scouts say has defensive issues, and who will likely need a long learning curve to helping our pitching staff improve.
Yes, your position has been argued against fiercly by some, but I respect your position, and you may turn out to be right, but I do question your selectivity of stats and comparative sample size adjustments to suit your argument.
My best characterization of my position on the team is that I'm probably an autistic wannabe GM. It's the facts. Not emotion. I just want to win. Salty is of value, as is Ortiz. IMO, we can more cost effectively address team needs in the post Crawford era, by managing our cash better. The new CBA warrants this need even more than the old one did. Theo left us in a cash poor position. We need to really focus what cash and other resources we have on overall team needs. Manage our resources better to optimize of chances for success long term.
I agree, and letting Papi walk or trading Salty this winter might have to happen to fill greater needs elsewhere, and that is why I think Salty needs to play 60%+ of the remaining games to keep or gain value and for us to evaluate his stamina question as well as the question about whether his post May 1st numbers with the staff are a fluke.
The new CBA really demands it. I don't think it's impact has really set in yet with most people here. We now have very few overslot signing advantages. Revenue is spread around the league with a more even distribution. We need to manage our resources more prudently. The league took the silver spoon out of our mouth. It may still be in our hand and we can still use it some but we are clearly on a diet going forward. We have to look for fat to trim.
Finally, I think and have mantained for some time now that we could have called up Lavarnway when he started his hot streak in June without losing service time. Certainly by July 1st. That was a non issue. It appears that that assessment was accurate.
Are you sure we would have not lost a year's service if we brought him up in June? July 1st? If you are correct, your position is strengthed in hindsight, since Salty slumped, but I have not read a definitive answer to the lost service time exact date that Lava could be brought up.