CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]Who is Hamilton's agent?  If it's Scott Boras, then the Red Sox will need to borrow some money from Buffet or Gates.
    Posted by Ice-Cream[/QUOTE]

    It's Michael Moye.

    One concern:
    Josh vs RHPs .957 career
    Josh vs LHPs .806

    (.951 to .843 this year)

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : I would love to find a way to dump salary and keep Papi moon but how likely is it we improve?  I just have little faith in our overall health these days for our present players to have the big years they are capable of.  I'm not even sure Hamilton can keep his head in the game if we were lucky enough to land him.   
    Posted by craze4sox[/QUOTE]

    I've been straining to find a way to dump some salary, and most of my CC trade suggestions have been criticized.

    Here's how I look at it: if we could trade CC for only a low level prospect and maybe pay $8M a year towards his contract, we'd have a hole in LF, but we'd have $40M to spend this winter, not $28M.

    If we traded Salty and some prospects for a top pitching prospect. We'd save about $7M from what his arb might be, and have a great pitching prospect, something we are a bit short on. That gives us $47M to spend.

    We could sign ...
    Hamilton $22M
    Greinke    $15M
    Papi         $10M  ($15M, $13M and $2M option for 3rd year=$10M/yr)

    I'm not saying I want Greinke or would pay this much for these guys, but I used them as examples of what could be.

    We could use Nava and find another Cody Ross to play LF, a prospect, or use someone from another position in LF (Lava?) .

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : I've been straining to find a way to dump some salary, and most of my CC trade suggestions have been criticized. Here's how I look at it: if we could trade CC for only a low level prospect and maybe pay $8M a year towards his contract, we'd have a hole in LF, but we'd have $40M to spend this winter, not $28M. If we traded Salty and some prospects for a top pitching prospect. We'd save about $7M from what his arb might be, and have a great pitching prospect, something we are a bit short on. That gives us $47M to spend. We could sign ... Hamilton $22M Greinke    $15M Papi         $10M  ($15M, $13M and $2M option for 3rd year=$10M/yr) I'm not saying I want Greinke or would pay this much for these guys, but I used them as examples of what could be. We could use Nava and find another Cody Ross to play LF, a prospect, or use someone from another position in LF (Lava?) .
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If Crawford finishes strong he could draw some interest even with the huge contract.  Beckett and Lackey moves would also be nice.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I wonder how much Miami wanted us to pay.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Some perspective on the state of MLB catchers today...

    6 teams have a worse catcher OB% than Salty's .287.
    8 teams have a worse BA than Salty's .230.
    (15 teams are below .239 and 18 are below .243)
    20 teams have a worse OPS than Salty's .780.
    28 teams have a worse SLG% than Salty's .493.

    Salty-Shopp have a 0.0 defensive value on fangraph's WAR. (#16 of 30).
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I think there is a good chance Crawford puts up good numbers this year. He was injured last year and that probably affected him. The elbow problem he has now has been played through with little impact by people like Pujols if I remember correctly. Maybe Crawford really helps us this year and next. Considering how low his value is percieved I think our best shot is to throw him out there and see if his value goes back up. It just might.

    Regarding Ortiz, we would be looking at a guy who would be around 38 next year. Big guys sometime fade fast as they age. No way i'm giving him a 2 year contract in the expected range. He is going to go down hill at some point. He's still just a DH. His numbers can be largely replaced by a guy being paid a heck of a lot less. For example a Cody Ross would have been a decent replacement this year, or a platoon of LH and RH reserve OF. Roster flexibility is important. Getting a pick when he leaves is important. Not giving multiyear contracts to guys who are approaching 37 and 38 years old is important. Saving that kind of cash is important. Offer him arb and hope like crazy he signs somewhere else. Worst case scenario is we are only obligated for one year.

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : I've been straining to find a way to dump some salary, and most of my CC trade suggestions have been criticized. Here's how I look at it: if we could trade CC for only a low level prospect and maybe pay $8M a year towards his contract, we'd have a hole in LF, but we'd have $40M to spend this winter, not $28M. If we traded Salty and some prospects for a top pitching prospect. We'd save about $7M from what his arb might be, and have a great pitching prospect, something we are a bit short on. That gives us $47M to spend. We could sign ... Hamilton $22M Greinke    $15M Papi         $10M  ($15M, $13M and $2M option for 3rd year=$10M/yr) I'm not saying I want Greinke or would pay this much for these guys, but I used them as examples of what could be. We could use Nava and find another Cody Ross to play LF, a prospect, or use someone from another position in LF (Lava?) .
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I think Hamilton and Greinke should stay as far away from Boston as possible, for their own sakes.  Unfortunately, Greinke is head and shoulders the top of talent pool when it comes to FA starting pitchers.  We might be able to get Peavy for $10 - $12 million for 3 years, and hope he stays healthy, but it's hard to see a scenario where this team is better by letting Papi walk.

    Morales is the x-factor in all this - if he finishes the year like he has pitched in his starts thus far, he'll not only be in the rotation in 2011, he'll be our #1.  

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I just mentioned the big name guys. I don't think I want to overpay for Greinke. I'd rather trade for the next Gio Gonzalez type.

    As for Hamilton, I doubt we get him. He will be paid too much, but even worse, for too many years.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    What's the best we can do, though?  Is there anybody on the FA market who would be an improvement over what we should be getting from Buch, Beckett, Lester, Lackey or Morales / Doubront?  Are we going to keep pursuing guys who look good in big parks and then complain how stupid we are when their ERAs balloon in Fenway in the AL East?

    Good questions. I do not see a dominant FA worth overspending on, so I think we will need to bite the bullet and make a trade to get a quality starter. I hate to trade top prospects, but to get top quality pitching, we will have to. We could make Ellsbury and/or Salty (Lava?) part of a package of prospects to get someone great.

    Here's Cot's list of FA starters, but it is not updated...
    Starting Pitchers
    Scott Baker *
    Joe Blanton
    Kevin Correia
    Jorge De La Rosa *
    R.A. Dickey *
    Scott Feldman *
    Gavin Floyd *
    Zack Greinke
    Jeremy Guthrie
    Dan Haren *
    Roberto Hernandez *

    Tim Hudson *
    Colby Lewis
    Francisco Liriano 
    Kyle Lohse
    Derek Lowe
    Shaun Marcum
    Daisuke Matsuzaka
    Brandon McCarthy
    Carl Pavano
    Jake Peavy *
    Anibal Sanchez
    Jonathan Sanchez 
    Ervin Santana *
    Joe Saunders
    James Shields *
    Jake Westbrook *
    Randy Wolf *
    Carlos Zambrano *


    Ellsbury is not the trade chip he was last winter, but he should still be good enough to get a top young pitching prospect a la Shelby Miller or Julio Teheran.  That might be our best bet in the long run.

    Package Ellsbury with Salty or Lava or Doubront (other prospects) and we could get something really special.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]What's the best we can do, though?  Is there anybody on the FA market who would be an improvement over what we should be getting from Buch, Beckett, Lester, Lackey or Morales / Doubront?  Are we going to keep pursuing guys who look good in big parks and then complain how stupid we are when their ERAs balloon in Fenway in the AL East? Good questions. I do not see a dominant FA worth overspending on, so I think we will need to bite the bullet and make a trade to get a quality starter. I hate to trade top prospects, but to get top quality pitching, we will have to. We could make Ellsbury and/or Salty (Lava?) part of a package of prospects to get someone great. Here's Cot's list of FA starters, but it is not updated... Starting Pitchers Scott Baker * Joe Blanton Kevin Correia Jorge De La Rosa * R.A. Dickey * Scott Feldman * Gavin Floyd * Zack Greinke Jeremy Guthrie Dan Haren * Roberto Hernandez * Tim Hudson * Colby Lewis Francisco Liriano  Kyle Lohse Derek Lowe Shaun Marcum Daisuke Matsuzaka Brandon McCarthy Carl Pavano Jake Peavy * Anibal Sanchez Jonathan Sanchez  Ervin Santana * Joe Saunders James Shields * Jake Westbrook * Randy Wolf * Carlos Zambrano * Ellsbury is not the trade chip he was last winter, but he should still be good enough to get a top young pitching prospect a la Shelby Miller or Julio Teheran.  That might be our best bet in the long run. Package Ellsbury with Salty or Lava or Doubront (other prospects) and we could get something really special.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]My thinking exactly. And if we could get rid of a big salary pitcher at the same time all the better.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : My thinking exactly. And if we could get rid of a big salary pitcher at the same time all the better.
    Posted by carnie[/QUOTE]

    I mentioned the nats trade for Gio Gonzalez last winter. At the time of the Bailey/Sweeney for Reddicj deal, I had said I wished we had upped the offer to get Gio instead of a closer (and used Bard as closer).

    It's not easy finding guys like Gio every offseason, but we also got Pedro via a trade of prospects. We got Schill via trade.

    I'm not sure who might be available, but here are a few names I can think of:

    FA "sleepers"?
    Brandon McCarthy
    Anebel Sanchez
    (??? Lohse, Guthrie, Marcum, Saunders???)

    Trade:
    Felix Hernandez (Would take a boatload of prospects)
    Jason Vargas
    Yovani Gallardo
    Justin Masterson (might not be an upgrade)
    Mark Buehrle



     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Moon, I have to respectfully disagree.  The hit rate on highly touted "cant miss" pitching prospects is very low.

    I think Ellsbury has more value to the 2013 team than anythign we'd get in return (even if he is leaving after 2013).  I wouldnt trade a proven #1 hitter, with MVP upside for a pitching prospect , when pitching prospects are such crapshoots.

    One year of Ellsbury is VERY valuable.  Even if we have no chance at retaining him beyond 2013.  Also: theres a good chance that we'll miss the playoffs for a third straight season.  Should this happen, it makes less sense to trade Ellsbury.

    We have to make a run in 2013.  Before Crawford , AGON are in their late 30's making 20+ million a year.  While we still have Ellsbury.  While we still have Papi (hoepfully). 

    If Lester was Jon Lester , we'd be right in it.  This team can compete in 2013  , and that should be our focus.  We shouldnt be looking to weaken the 2013 team to bring in prospects who probably arent going to pan out (pitching prospects tend to miss more often than not, there are just sooo many things that can go wrong).

    COMPETE IN 2013!!!!!
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Pick a catcher by then too
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    My above post is a reflection that I do not think it is wise to trade Ells for prospects.  Trading him for a proven starter is a different story.

    Still, I think that if a proven starter was available, we would be able to trade for him and keep Ellsbury.

    Greinke may not cost any prospects :)

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : I mentioned the nats trade for Gio Gonzalez last winter. At the time of the Bailey/Sweeney for Reddicj deal, I had said I wished we had upped the offer to get Gio instead of a closer (and used Bard as closer). It's not easy finding guys like Gio every offseason, but we also got Pedro via a trade of prospects. We got Schill via trade. I'm not sure who might be available, but here are a few names I can think of: FA "sleepers"? Brandon McCarthy Anebel Sanchez (??? Lohse, Guthrie, Marcum, Saunders???) Trade: Felix Hernandez (Would take a boatload of prospects) Jason Vargas Yovani Gallardo Justin Masterson (might not be an upgrade) Mark Buehrle
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I don't have a problem with calling the names you list quality starters, but we have a lot of options at starter going into next year, and I don't know how many of the names you list are in the top five when compared to Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Morales and presumably Aceves once Bailey's healthy and closing games.

    I also don't know how many of them will be better than a Miller or Teheran come the end of the 2013 season, let alone long-term.  All things considered, if we're going to trade Ells & more, I think near-mlb-ready prospects is the way to go.

     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Moon, I honestly dont get why you'd rather trade for a pitcher than "overpay" for Greinke.

    Greinke is better than ANY pitcher you could acquire via trade, and he wont cost you prospects.

    Are we still harping on his case of social anxiety disorder, which he conquered years ago?  If he pitches well for the rest of 2012 (in the heat of a pennant race), this will have been 2x where he came up big when the pressure was on (he carried Milwaukee to a WC birth).

    If he does this, I am sold.  He is VERY VERY VERY good.  He's much better than Gio Gonzaelz, Cole hamels, Jon Lester.

    He's bettr than everyone in the AL (excluding Jered Weaver and Justin  Verlander).  He's better than the King Felix who we are seeing this year.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Moon, I have to respectfully disagree.  The hit rate on highly touted "cant miss" pitching prospects is very low.

    I think Ellsbury has more value to the 2013 team than anythign we'd get in return (even if he is leaving after 2013).  I wouldnt trade a proven #1 hitter, with MVP upside for a pitching prospect , when pitching prospects are suchcrapshoots.

    But, Drew, trading for a known pitching prospect has to be a better C-shot than a draft pick.

    One year of Ellsbury is VERY valuable.  Even if we have no chance at retaining him beyond 2013.  Also: theres a good chance that we'll miss the playoffs for a third straight season.  Should this happen, it makes less sense to trade Ellsbury.

    I undertsand the value of jacoby in 2013, and so do other teams. Ells has 203 value + the comp pick value if we trade him before 2013 begins. 

    I do not want to give him away. We could also involve a third team, whereby they get the prospect and we get a MLB ready player with more team control that just 2013.

    We have to make a run in 2013.  Before Crawford , AGON are in their late 30's making 20+ million a year.  While we still have Ellsbury.  While we still have Papi (hoepfully).  

    I'm not giving up on 2013 by saying we should explore trading Ellsbury.

    If Lester was Jon Lester , we'd be right in it. 

    Yes, even without Jacoby!

     This team can compete in 2013  , and that should be our focus.  We shouldnt be looking to weaken the 2013 team to bring in prospects who probably arent going to pan out (pitching prospects tend to miss more often than not, there are just sooo many things that can go wrong).

    COMPETE IN 2013!!!!!

    I look at it this way: assuming Jacoby walks (which I say is a 99% chance), we have these options:

    1) Keep Jacoby and be strongest in 2013 and get a comp pick that may help us 4+ years after 2013.

    2) Trade Jacoby for a ML player who may be worse than Jacoby at his 2011 level, but who is under team control for 3-5 years. This makes us possibly weaker in 2013 (assumingJacoby plays like 2011 in 2013) but stronger from 2014 to 2016 or 17.

    3) Trade Jacoby for a top prospect and hope this player helps way more than Jacoby from 2014 and beyond for many years.

    If Jacoby repeats 2011 in 2013, we might miss out on a championship if we chose #2 or #3, but maybe not with choice #2. We may have a much better chance beyond 2013 if we choose #2 or #3,

    If jacoby gets hurt or does not play anywhere near 2011 level, the option #2 or #3 looks like a clear choice.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I don't have a problem with calling the names you list quality starters, but we have a lot of options at starter going into next year, and I don't know how many of the names you list are in the top five when compared to Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Morales and presumably Aceves once Bailey's healthy and closing games.

    I don't want Aceves starting, and putting our hopes in the big 3 (Beckett, Lester, and Buch) to all stay healthy and play well for the first time in history is a losing bet. I am not counting on Lackey either. I like Doubront and Morales, but you can never have too much pitching. 

    I also mentioned trading Ellsbury and Doubront to get a much better starter.

    We have too many #4 slot type starters and not enough ones and twos. It rarely does a team any good to have 4 #5 starters, but no decent #1 or 2.

    I also don't know how many of them will be better than a Miller or Teheran come the end of the 2013 season, let alone long-term.  All things considered, if we're going to trade Ells & more, I think near-mlb-ready prospects is the way to go.

    You may be right, but involving a 3rd team and adding to Ellsbury a package of prospects or Doubront or Salty or Aviles might net us a solid proven starter under team control for 2+ years.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]I don't have a problem with calling the names you list quality starters, but we have a lot of options at starter going into next year, and I don't know how many of the names you list are in the top five when compared to Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Morales and presumably Aceves once Bailey's healthy and closing games. I don't want Aceves starting, and putting our hopes in the big 3 (Beckett, Lester, and Buch) to all stay healthy and play well for the first time in history is a losing bet. I am not counting on Lackey either. I like Doubront and Morales, but you can never have too much pitching.  I also mentioned trading Ellsbury and Doubront to get a much better starter. We have too many #4 slot type starters and not enough ones and twos. It rarely does a team any good to have 4 #5 starters, but no decent #1 or 2. I also don't know how many of them will be better than a Miller or Teheran come the end of the 2013 season, let alone long-term.  All things considered, if we're going to trade Ells & more, I think near-mlb-ready prospects is the way to go. You may be right, but involving a 3rd team and adding to Ellsbury a package of prospects or Doubront or Salty or Aviles might net us a solid proven starter under team control for 2+ years.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]Not only do we have too many #4s, we have too many guys being paid like number 1s who aren't pitching like it. I'd add a member of the major league rotation to your package, if only to send a message to the pitching staff. Who knows? A package like that might actually enable you to go out someone like Hernandez or Cueto.
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    Moon, I honestly dont get why you'd rather trade for a pitcher than "overpay" for Greinke.

    Greinke is better than ANY pitcher you could acquire via trade, and he wont cost you prospects.

    1) If we sign Greinke, we likely lose Papi and any chance to get Hamilton or any big name RH'd RF'er.

    2) I tend to be more shy about big cost FA pitchers than big name FA everyday players, but that's just me.

    Are we still harping on his case of social anxiety disorder, which he conquered years ago?  If he pitches well for the rest of 2012 (in the heat of a pennant race), this will have been 2x where he came up big when the pressure was on (he carried Milwaukee to a WC birth).

    I am very uncertain about Greinke, but my worries are probably unfounded. You make a good case. 

    I have not said I do not like Greinke, but I like Gio better, and he costs a lot less, thereby allowing money to be spent elsewhere. That is the big plus of a trade over FA signing.

    If he does this, I am sold.  He is VERY VERY VERY good.  He's much better than Gio Gonzaelz, Cole hamels, Jon Lester.

    If he is "much better" than Hamels, won't he get more than Cole just signed for?

    He's bettr than everyone in the AL (excluding Jered Weaver and Justin  Verlander).  He's better than the King Felix who we are seeing this year.

    I'd take Verlander and Felix over Greinke.

    Greinke turns 29 in October. he hasn't had a WHIP below 1.200 since 2009.

    Verlander turned 29 in Feb. He hasn't had a WHIP above 1.175 since 2008. He's been under 1.000 the last 2 years. He's had a much lower ERA than Greinke while playing in the AL with the DH.

    Felix just turned 26!  TWENTY SIX! He kills the Yankees, especially at NYY. His away ERA is very close to his home ERA over his career, He's been under 1.135 WHIP in 3 of the last 4 years. He blows Greinke's ERA to shreds. 3.12 home/3.23 away career.
    Away ERA:
    2012: 3.07
    2011: 3.28
    2010: 2.43
    2009: 1.99
    2008: 3.01

    Zach is not THAT GOOD!
     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]I don't have a problem with calling the names you list quality starters, but we have a lot of options at starter going into next year, and I don't know how many of the names you list are in the top five when compared to Buchholz, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Morales and presumably Aceves once Bailey's healthy and closing games. I don't want Aceves starting, and putting our hopes in the big 3 (Beckett, Lester, and Buch) to all stay healthy and play well for the first time in history is a losing bet. I am not counting on Lackey either. I like Doubront and Morales, but you can never have too much pitching.  I also mentioned trading Ellsbury and Doubront to get a much better starter. We have too many #4 slot type starters and not enough ones and twos. It rarely does a team any good to have 4 #5 starters, but no decent #1 or 2. I also don't know how many of them will be better than a Miller or Teheran come the end of the 2013 season, let alone long-term.  All things considered, if we're going to trade Ells & more, I think near-mlb-ready prospects is the way to go. You may be right, but involving a 3rd team and adding to Ellsbury a package of prospects or Doubront or Salty or Aviles might net us a solid proven starter under team control for 2+ years.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I hear what you're saying, but a lot of these guys looked like #1s as recently as last year.  Other guys, like Lackey, looked like #1s until they got to Boston.  So I don't know that the Marcums and Gallardos and Guthries and Beuhrles and Sanchez's are going to look like #2s for long.  If guys like Lester and Buch and Beckett bounce back, there's no place for the guys on this list.  If they don't, then they're just more names in the swarm of #4s.



     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]Moon, I honestly dont get why you'd rather trade for a pitcher than "overpay" for Greinke. Greinke is better than ANY pitcher you could acquire via trade, and he wont cost you prospects. 1) If we sign Greinke, we likely lose Papi and any chance to get Hamilton or any big name RH'd RF'er. 2) I tend to be more shy about big cost FA pitchers than big name FA everyday players, but that's just me. Are we still harping on his case of social anxiety disorder, which he conquered years ago?  If he pitches well for the rest of 2012 (in the heat of a pennant race), this will have been 2x where he came up big when the pressure was on (he carried Milwaukee to a WC birth). I am very uncertain about Greinke, but my worries are probably unfounded. You make a good case.  I have not said I do not like Greinke, but I like Gio better, and he costs a lot less, thereby allowing money to be spent elsewhere. That is the big plus of a trade over FA signing. If he does this, I am sold.  He is VERY VERY VERY good.  He's much better than Gio Gonzaelz, Cole hamels, Jon Lester. If he is "much better" than Hamels, won't he get more than Cole just signed for? He's bettr than everyone in the AL (excluding Jered Weaver and Justin  Verlander).  He's better than the King Felix who we are seeing this year. I'd take Verlander and Felix over Greinke. Greinke turns 29 in October. he hasn't had a WHIP below 1.200 since 2009. Verlander turned 29 in Feb. He hasn't had a WHIP above 1.175 since 2008. He's been under 1.000 the last 2 years. He's had a much lower ERA than Greinke while playing in the AL with the DH. Felix just turned 26!  TWENTY SIX! He kills the Yankees, especially at NYY. His away ERA is very close to his home ERA over his career, He's been under 1.135 WHIP in 3 of the last 4 years. He blows Greinke's ERA to shreds. 3.12 home/3.23 away career. Away ERA: 2012: 3.07 2011: 3.28 2010: 2.43 2009: 1.99 2008: 3.01 Zach is not THAT GOOD !
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I'd stay as far from Felix as possible - he was mediocre for more than a year until his sudden burst in velocity.


     
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    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    I hear what you're saying, but a lot of these guys looked like #1s as recently as last year.  Other guys, like Lackey, looked like #1s until they got to Boston.  So I don't know that the Marcums and Gallardos and Guthries and Beuhrles and Sanchez's are going to look like #2s for long.  If guys like Lester and Buch and Beckett bounce back, there's no place for the guys on this list.  If they don't, then they're just more names in the swarm of #4s.

    Beckett, Lester and Buch have never all had healthy productive seasons at the same time. I doubt they will in 2013. If that is what we are pinning all our hopes on, I'm not confident at all.

    I'd rather get a starter under 28, and I don't want to spend big on an older guy for 4+ years.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook : I'd stay as far from Felix as possible - he was mediocre for more than a year until his sudden burst in velocity. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4772&position=P&pitch=FA
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]

    Nice info, but Felix is a pitcher not a thrower. He has pitched well with lower velocity for several years now, and he's just 26.

    I am not confident we can get Felix without paying more than what I'd be willing to give. My guess is Seattle would want at the very least 4-5 of these players:
    Bradley/Ranaudo or Barnes/Brentz
    Iglesias/Vitek or T-W Lin/Cecchini
    Tazawa
    Coyle


     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook

    In Response to Re: CC/Lavarnway/Doubront/Cook:
    [QUOTE]Moon, I have to respectfully disagree.  The hit rate on highly touted "cant miss" pitching prospects is very low. I think Ellsbury has more value to the 2013 team than anythign we'd get in return (even if he is leaving after 2013).  I wouldnt trade a proven #1 hitter, with MVP upside for a pitching prospect , when pitching prospects are such crapshoots. One year of Ellsbury is VERY valuable.  Even if we have no chance at retaining him beyond 2013.  Also: theres a good chance that we'll miss the playoffs for a third straight season.  Should this happen, it makes less sense to trade Ellsbury. We have to make a run in 2013.  Before Crawford , AGON are in their late 30's making 20+ million a year.  While we still have Ellsbury.  While we still have Papi (hoepfully).  If Lester was Jon Lester , we'd be right in it.  This team can compete in 2013  , and that should be our focus.  We shouldnt be looking to weaken the 2013 team to bring in prospects who probably arent going to pan out (pitching prospects tend to miss more often than not, there are just sooo many things that can go wrong). COMPETE IN 2013!!!!!
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely. I know Moon wouldn't do the trade unless it was a good one but the likihood is that Ellsbury stays right here and helps us win in 2013. We are not Houston or Milwaukee. Or KC or any number of other teams who have to retool yearly it seems.

    How do you guys like Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia tonight? We need to ride that train. It's the best shot we have.

    I'm not discounting the possibility that Lackey will be a good addition next year. He should be fine. 

     
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