CERA again

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    CERA again

    From the Bill Chuck Files: “Josh Beckett has pitched in 173 games with the Red Sox with a 4.04 ERA. In 139 of those games his catcher has been Jason Varitek, with whom he’s had a 3.68 ERA.’’

    That's a reasonable sample size, 34 games over 6 years i.e. a full season but spread out over years and catchers.  Is it that Varitek calls a better game?  A baseball Placebo Effect?  Other? 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: CERA again

    In Response to CERA again:
    [QUOTE]From the Bill Chuck Files: “ Josh Beckett has pitched in 173 games with the Red Sox with a 4.04 ERA. In 139 of those games his catcher has been Jason Varitek , with whom he’s had a 3.68 ERA.’’ That's a reasonable sample size, 34 games over 6 years i.e. a full season but spread out over years and catchers.  Is it that Varitek calls a better game?  A baseball Placebo Effect?  Other? 
    Posted by SonicsMonksLyresVicars[/QUOTE]

    Varitek calls a better game. Someone better get his notes if he is on his way out.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: CERA again

    Simple solution trade him to a team with an experienced catcher!!!!!

    We don't want any excuses this season that the reason he pitched so poorly was because Tek wasn't his preferred catcher.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: CERA again

    Beckett's not the only one who did better with Varitek of course.  Bard has a 1.79 ERA with Varitek, 2.88 overall.  But as we all know, CERA is very difficult to validate, and the Red Sox appear to agree.  Also in related news, the Angels finally parted with good CERA/no hit Jeff Mathis. 
     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: CERA again

    In Response to Re: CERA again:
    [QUOTE]Who was his Catcher when he won a World Series with the Marlins?
    Posted by bobbysu[/QUOTE]

    I-Rod.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CERA again

    You think VTek was Beckett's "binky"...

    Daniel Bard:
    w/VTek   1.79 (80 IP)
    w/VMart  3.16 (51)
    w/Salty   4.54  (42)

    Dice-K:
    w/VTek  4.00  (493)
    w/VMart 5.47  (76)
    w/ Cash  3.81  (28)
    w/ Salty 11.42  (9)

    Lester:
    w/VTek  3.41 (but, 2011: 2.48/2010: 1.88)
    w/Salty 3.77  (2011: 3.77)
    w/VMart 3.24 (2010: 3.64)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CERA again

    Let's be honest. Have guys like Beckett and Papelbon ever come across to you like rocket scientists? Some guys need a Tek type catcher more than others.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Newfiebullet. Show Newfiebullet's posts

    Re: CERA again

    The fact that Beckett apparently needs his binky in Varitek does not reflect well on Beckett.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: CERA again

    That Varitek handles pitchers well and calls a good game is pretty much a given.  The question is : Does that outweigh his inability to throw out base runners , or his declining offensive production?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: CERA again

    In Response to Re: CERA again:
    [QUOTE]The fact that Beckett apparently needs his binky in Varitek does not reflect well on Beckett.
    Posted by Newfiebullet[/QUOTE]

    Maybe he wants to pitch tothe smartest catcher he can find.  I'm having an issue finding fault with that.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: CERA again

    All reason to hire Varitek as a coach.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CERA again

    That Varitek handles pitchers well and calls a good game is pretty much a given.  The question is : Does that outweigh his inability to throw out base runners , or his declining offensive production?

    CS% is SOOooooooo over-rated in judging catcher defense. Since flg% for catchers is a lame stat and PBs are so subjective and dependent on who you are catching, the CS% rate has become the be-all-end-all stat of choice for guys like softy and others.

    (Sidenote: silly softy downplays "Jake's" SBs, but acts like when the opps steal off Vtek, it's the end of the world.)

    Let's look closer at VTek's noodle arm and see just how much it made difference. His 2011 CS rate was 14%, Had it been 28%, he'd have thrown out just 12 more runners. Had he thrown out 42%, he'd have thrown out 24 more runners. How many of those 12 to 24 runners ended up scoring? How many of those runs ended up making a difference in a win or loss?

    The team went 42-22 and VTek's games. As bad as he supposedly hit and threw out runners, what made the difference?

    It seems obvious to me.

    Here's another example:
    2010 Angels:
    Napoli  27% CS rate/ .784 OPS Team Record 17-18
    Mathis 20% CS rate/ .497 OPS  Team record 45-34
    Conger 18% CS rate/ .638 OPS Team record 24-24

    Angel CERAs in 2010 (Warning: CERA should be used with individual pitchers not as a seasonal total, but here are the numbers) 
    Mathis: 3.25
    Conger 3.84
    Napoli: 3.89

    2009:
    Mathis: 3.67 (554 Inn)/ .596 OPS/ 26% CS rate (47-31)
    Napoli:  5.11 (525 Inn)/ .842 OPS/ 22% CS rate (50-34)

    2009 was a nice sample size for comparing these two catchers. Their innings caught were nearly identical. Since one cathcer might catch better pitchers than the other, it is best to compare pitcher by pitcher
    (all pitchers where both cathcers have over 30 innings caught):
    Weaver:
    w/Mathis 141 IP  3.38
    w/Napoli    69 IP  4.59

    Saunders:
    w/Mathis    58 IP  4.01
    w/Napoli   128 IP 4.86

    Lackey
    w/Mathis  115 IP  3.06
    w/Napoli     59 IP  5.34

    Santana
    w/Mathis  104  4.93
    w/Napoli    35   5.45

    Palmer
    Mathis  41  3.51
    Napoli   76  4.03

    Oliver
    Mathis  30  2.40
    Napoli  41   3.07

    Posters who deny that catcher make a difference in pitcher performance, are denying reality.

    Another question to ask is, why is Jeff Mathis still playing in MLB?
    He has a .489 OPS from 2010-2011, about worst in MLB.
    Yet, he has caught about 1250 innings the last 2 years in 158 games. 


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: CERA again

    Varitek has been kicked to the curb. Beckett will have to change his own 16 million dollar diapers. 

    There is a computer database on every hitter and matchup and sequence AB to take place. Varitek and pitcher voodoo is a myth busted by time person and space.

    Now, all that is left is for pitcher's like Beckett to use Varitek's forced out absence as an excuse for pitching poorly. Coward comes to mind.  
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CERA again

    Varitek has been kicked to the curb. Beckett will have to change his own 16 million dollar diapers. 

    Maybe you can do it for him...you'd like that.

    There is a computer database on every hitter and matchup and sequence AB to take place. Varitek and pitcher voodoo is a myth busted by time person and space.

    Yeah, every catcher has all the data in his back pocket.

    Now, all that is left is for pitcher's like Beckett to use Varitek's forced out absence as an excuse for pitching poorly. Coward comes to mind.

    Drivel comes to mind.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: CERA again

    moon how much is harness paying you to promote the line on CERA in his absence? 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CERA again

    About as much as softy is to keep kissing his U-No-Wat.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: CERA again

    In Response to Re: CERA again:
    [QUOTE]Let's be honest. Have guys like Beckett and Papelbon ever come across to you like rocket scientists? Some guys need a Tek type catcher more than others.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    I think its a case of having the stuff but not the brains, Not everyone can be a CC Sabathia or Roy Holliday, some pitchers defantely need a catcher that calls a good game, it allows them to take themselves out of the situation and just focus on throwing the ball.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CERA again

    In Response to Re: CERA again:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: CERA again : I think its a case of having the stuff but not the brains, Not everyone can be a CC Sabathia or Roy Holliday, some pitchers defantely need a catcher that calls a good game, it allows them to take themselves out of the situation and just focus on throwing the ball.
    Posted by RSF4Life234[/QUOTE]
    Dump her now before you go over to the dark side! 

    JK!
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CERA again

    I've thought about why Shoppach though instead of Veritek. They both are better hitters against RH pitching. If anything, Veritek is a better hitter. The major difference between the 2 is the CS percentage. It wasn't just the percentage, it's the volume. It was something like 71 steal attempts wasn't it approximately in few innings caught as the back up. Other teams just ran on him constantly. Our pichers had to compensate for Tek's inability to throw runners out and they couldn't. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CERA again

    I've thought about why Shoppach though instead of Veritek. They both are better hitters against RH pitching. If anything, Veritek is a better hitter. The major difference between the 2 is the CS percentage. It wasn't just the percentage, it's the volume. It was something like 71 steal attempts wasn't it approximately in few innings caught as the back up. Other teams just ran on him constantly. Our pichers had to compensate for Tek's inability to throw runners out and they couldn't. 

    They couldn't?

    Then why the much better ERA with VTek rather than Salty, VMart, Kottaras, etc...?

    Then why the 42-22 record with VTek and 48-50 with the others?

    Seems like the "compensated" just fine.

    BTW, Shoppach has been a better hitter vs LHPs than VTek the last 3 years combined. More importantly, I see Bobby V going more with a L-R platoon than Tito's "personal caddy" nonsense platoon. That increases the hitting value of Keely over Jason. Add the much better arm, and his experience, and I think that's the answer he's here and not VTek. I also think Sox management may not value CERA related aspects of a catcher's skillset as much as some do.

    CERA is far from a perfect stat, even if used correctly. Often times the individual sample sizes with each pitcher are too small, have too high a differential in IP, or don't take into account that pitchers have slumps and high points throughout the season that may not be associated with who is catching them. For example, some pitchers are notorious slow starters, if a guy like VTek caught most of those innings, then say mid season we traded for someone like VMart who began catching most of the innings after the slow start, the comparative CERA and other related numbers could be skewed in favor of VMart.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: CERA again

    Then why the 42-22 record with VTek and 48-50 with the others

    Anecdotal evidence in team baseball is utter nonsense. Take a look at the team record when Mac starts, and when he doesn't.

    I suppose since the Red Sox didn't spend the 1.5 million on Varitek, as you advocated, the 2012 team will dip under .500............................

    Take some time off, and see if your brain activity returns.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CERA again

    In Response to Re: CERA again:
    [QUOTE]I've thought about why Shoppach though instead of Veritek. They both are better hitters against RH pitching. If anything, Veritek is a better hitter. The major difference between the 2 is the CS percentage. It wasn't just the percentage, it's the volume. It was something like 71 steal attempts wasn't it approximately in few innings caught as the back up. Other teams just ran on him constantly. Our pichers had to compensate for Tek's inability to throw runners out and they couldn't.  They couldn't? Then why the much better ERA with VTek rather than Salty, VMart, Kottaras, etc...? Then why the 42-22 record with VTek and 48-50 with the others? Seems like the "compensated" just fine. BTW, Shoppach has been a better hitter vs LHPs than VTek the last 3 years combined. More importantly, I see Bobby V going more with a L-R platoon than Tito's "personal caddy" nonsense platoon. That increases the hitting value of Keely over Jason. Add the much better arm, and his experience, and I think that's the answer he's here and not VTek. I also think Sox management may not value CERA related aspects of a catcher's skillset as much as some do. CERA is far from a perfect stat, even if used correctly. Often times the individual sample sizes with each pitcher are too small, have too high a differential in IP, or don't take into account that pitchers have slumps and high points throughout the season that may not be associated with who is catching them. For example, some pitchers are notorious slow starters, if a guy like VTek caught most of those innings, then say mid season we traded for someone like VMart who began catching most of the innings after the slow start, the comparative CERA and other related numbers could be skewed in favor of VMart.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I'm saddened! Frown I kind of wanted the cash! Cool

    We will never know now Moon. Remember it did take big odds for me to bite on this so that should tell you I agree with you! Just not as emphatically!

    I did say that Tek was a better hitter, not a better hitter against RH pitching. Shoppach will still get 50% of his AB against RH pitching even in a severe platoon, and he hit around .111 last year against them if I remember correctly and hasn't hit above .214 in 3 years. He's a pretty bad hitter guys!

    Even worse than Tek.

    The team won with Tek but Beckett might have had something to do with that and he was the back up, meaning that he was probably inserted more often against mediocre competition. 

    I looked it up and Veritek actually had 85 stolen base attempts on him in roughly the same number of innings as Shoppach, who had 44 attempts. Everyone ran on Veritek. 

    Wow, Salty had 26 PB last year. And couldn't block 41 WP. 120 stolen base attempts on him. Shoppach probably does better than both of these guys in those departments. If Lavarnway is a bad defensive catcher, could he be much worse than the above? He'd have to be pretty bad guys! (maybe he is, I don't know)!


     
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: CERA again

    I'd be willing to bet the Sox do a better job holding the runners and throwing them out next year. Valentine will actually work on that rather than let the players go golfing all the time. They will be too tired to golf!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: CERA again

    The team won with Tek but Beckett might have had something to do with that and he was the back up, meaning that he was probably inserted more often against mediocre competition. 

    VTek barely caught Lester, and if you take away Beckett's numbers, other pitcher's went 22-12 with VTek. Some of their ERAs were vastly better with Vtek, others better, and others just slightly better. Only 4 out of our top 16 pitchers had a better ERA with Salty. It's not just Beckett.
     
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