After the last season and a month, there is a lot of doubt concerning our starting pitchers.  This isn't one of my rah-rah threads, as some might suggest I am all about (and you're right....)

  Take a step and let us know what you think:

   Lester

   Clay

   Dempster

   Lackey

   Doubie

     add any one you think may be a spot starter, a surprise call up that sticks ....

Sheees ... I didn't do that well

  W-L  ERA Whip ...whutevah

My shots in the dark...

Lester: 18-7, 3.19 ERA (pulling for a big season from him)

Buchholz: 14-10, 3.79 ERA

Lackey: 12-11, 4.18 ERA

Doubront: 10-6, 4.30 ERA

Dempster: 13-10, 4.56 ERA

 

Lester 3.35 17-8

Bucholz 3.23 18-5

Dempster 4.13 13-12

Doubront 4.33 15-12

Lackey 4.11 12-10

Lester 3..05 16-9

Bucholz 4.50 12-15 ****

Dempster 3.75.13 16-11 (will suprise us)

Doubront 4..00 14-11

Lackey 3.75 15-11

...

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Lester: 15-9, 3.55 ERA

Buchholz: 14-7, 3.66 ERA

Lackey: 12-11, 4.75 ERA

Doubront: 10-8, 4.35 ERA

Dempster: 13-11, 4.25 ERA

P.S.

Dice-K will go 0-3 with a 9.85 ERA and then the Indians will send his Hello Kitty a** back to the minors.   LOL

In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

But not before he one-hits the Sox.  So he will actually be 1-3 when he is sent packing.

 

As for my predictions, someone will pitch in hard luck, pitching well but not getting the wins he should.  One will break out and suprise in a good way, and one will fail miserably.  the other two will pitch in line with lifetime stats.  My prediction is that Lester returns to a better than average starter, but pitches in bad luck; Buchholz has a breakout year and is the ace of the staff.  Doubront is the one I predict disappoints badly (and is replaced in the rotation by Steven Wright):

Lester - 14 - 8, 3.35, 33 starts

Buchholz - 20 - 8, 3.09, 32 starts (only because he tires at the end of the season...sub 3.00 until Sept.)

Lackey - 14 - 12, 4.06, 32 starts

Dempster - 15 - 13, 4.22, 30 starts

Doubront - 3 - 7, 12 starts (on DL in June and July, in bullpen in August and Sept)

Wright - 10 - 3, 3.44, 16 starts

Aceves/Morales or De LaRosa make the other 7 starts, with a 3-4 record.

91 wins and 61 losses, as bullpen has a 12 - 6 record and combined era under 4.00.

I know.  That was WAY optimistic.  But boy, wouldn't it be great if I were pretty much right?

RS season depends on these guys so will be optimistic.

Lester 16-10 3.72 [will face other teams #1 mostly so Buchholz will lead team in wins]

Buchholz 17-9 3.33 [finally becomes consistent starter RS are looking for]

Dempster 14-11 3.78 [will be better than alot of people expect]

Lackey 14-12 4.23 [will struggle towards end of season due to fatigue]

Doubront 5-9 5.19 [will pitch terribly-out of shape which will lead to De la Rossa]

De La Rossa 7-2 2.38 [starts year in AAA, called up in Aug to replace a fat and ineffective Doubront lights up the Fenway faithful with a tremendous 2nd half] 

Lester 17-9 3.61 ERA 211 IP 198 SO 68 BB

Buchholz 17-7 3.44 ERA 179 IP 165 SO 51 BB

Dempster 15-11 3.96 ERA 202 IP 154 SO 85 BB

Doubront 13-9 4.68 ERA 159 IP 161 SO 73 BB

Lackey 12-10 4.21 ERA 177 IP 144 SO 77 BB

Morales 7 Starts 4 W

Wright 4 Starts 2 W

Webster 2 Starts

De La Rosa is on a strict innings limit, but will get called up at some point and pitch very well out of the pen.  He will make the rotation in 2014 when they can turn them loose.

"Doubie" shouldn't be called what Obama burned his brain out smoking. Doubrant will end up with an ERA that is compettive (within .25) with the 5th best ERA from the AL teams that make the playoffs.

Lester and Buchholz will pitch a season ERA at or within + or - .25 of the #3 starters in ERA from the AL teams that make the playoffs. 

Lackey and Dumpster will pitch a season ERA at or within + or - .25 of the 4th starters in ERA f rom the AL teams that make the playoffs.  (cost: 30 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Dumpster will not pitch over 200 innings

There will be numerous spot starts, due to injuries, from Aceves and AAA call-ups. None of the AAA call-ups will stick any length of time and innings for the 2013 season. One will end up with a solid start, but will not be given a regular rotation spot for 2013. 

Now, since you authored this thread, let us all have the benefit of your detached and reasoned projections for these 5 starters.

Lester 18-8, 3.21 ERA, 210 to 220 IP (32-34 starts)

Buchholz 17-10, 3.25 ERA, 200-210 IP 31 to 33 starts)

Lackey 15-12, 3.75 ERA, 203 IP (30-32 starts)

Dempster 14-12, 4.14 ERA, 180 IP (30 starts)

Doubront 7-9, 4.45 ERA, 111 IP (20-21 starts)

The wins for the pitchers are a crapshoot because of run support. The records I've given the pitchers indicate they get proper support overall. But they very likely could/will have fewer decisions with the same ERAs and innings pitched.

Yes I'm optimistic about health and effectiveness, but with the injury luck the Sox have had the past three seasons or so, they're due to have some good luck in that area.

And besides -- it's spring. I REFUSE to be pessimistic in February or March.

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This is their 162 game avg:

Lester    15-9,  3.74,  211

Buch      15-10, 3.92,  204

Lackey   15-11, 4.10,  217

Demp     10-10, 4.33,  173

Doub      11-10, 4.86, 159 (small sample)

We can expect at least these numbers which would mean the BP would need to go 24-22 to get us 90 wins, and our BP should do much better than that, so we may be in good shape.

 

   Lester   17-10    3.98   210 IP

   Clay   14-9   3.27 179 IP

   Dempster    15-10 3.77 201 IP

   Lackey   14-13  4.11  212 IP

   Doubie   12-11 4.56  179 IP

       I am sure some one or two will be on the DL for the minimum ... so looking forward to Rubby and Webster sliding in for a few.  I think Franklin will help out greatly there, too.

 

As much as I like the potential of both De LaRosa (who is on a strict innings limit) and Webster (who has not pitched at the AAA level and just turned 23), I truly believe Wright is the first one to step into a rotation spot in 2013.  And he is ready to do so, IMO, as long as he has an open line of communication with Wake.

Justin Verlander: 25-0, 0.10 ERA    LOL

Lester 17-9 3.65 returns to old form self under new manager

Buch  19-8 2.99 finally shows consistancy but gets burn from low run support (there's always one)

Lackey 14-12 3.95

Dempster 15-14 4.15 welcome to the AL east

Doub 14-11 4.50  continues his growth and gets great run support (again one always benifits)

Morales 11-6 3.25 makes us wonder why he does not get more starts

 

I really like this staff, i do not believe the issue will be how many runs they give up but more abnout how many this team can score and how good the defense is. I see a lot of unearned runs headed our way.

And yes I have my pom poms on!

I Picking W/L and ERA for each individual starter is like throwing darts backwards and blindfolded...so I wont go that far.....but if the Offense can be Top 5 in scoring runs, and the Bullpen stays healthy(considering the depth we have there), I predict our starters will end up with 70 wins between them with a combined ERA of around 4.50.

In response to tomnev's comment:

... one of my favorite pasttimes....

In response to SinceYaz's comment:

In response to tomnev's comment:

I dont get it, OUCH wifey just smacked me. Maybe I missed something!