Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    moon,
    I hope you are right about Beckett coming into spring training in the best shape of his life.  Here are his starts per year since joinging Sox:

    2006 - 33
    2007 - 30
    2008 - 27
    2009 - 32
    2010 - 21
    2011 - 30

    If he follows his current pattern, he will start under 30 games this coming season.  Another way to look at it, he had 90 starts over the first three years, and 83 over the last three years.  He is trending down, not up.  Sox will need a 6th and 7th starter almost certainly.  Expect one more addition to the starting rotation, 111.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    Another way to look at it, he had 90 starts over the first three years, and 83 over the last three years.  He is trending down, not up.  Sox will need a 6th and 7th starter almost certainly.  Expect one more addition to the starting rotation, 111.
    Posted by parhunter1

    You are putting a lot of stock into one injury year to create a trend.  While you may not be that far off base since the older a player gets the more likely it is he will spend time on the DL, I still think using 30GS is a decent assumption for Beckett ... Lester too.  

    Overall, I'd figure we'll have at least 80GS from the top 3, 105-110 from a the 1-4 rotation leaving ~55 games for #5+.  That's really not that bad, especially when you consider there will probably be 3 candidates for the #5 spot and we can expect Dice to be back at some point this season.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Beckett has no incentive to come to camp in top shape. He will be paid the same regardless of the shape he is in. I expect a 2010 total debacle, or a 2011 out of shape and out of gas at end of 2012. I hope my expectations are not met.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    111,
    I am thinking that the #5,6,7 starters will have to cover 60-62 games, so we are not that much in disagreement.  And yes, I can see Dice-K taking 8-10 of those.  So we need two or three other guys to step in and make about 50 starts.  I don't want those to be taken up by Wake, Miller, and Bowden.  That's what we had last season and we all know how that went.  But Aceves should take some of those and I am convinced another starter will be brought in to pitch another 30.  That leaves about 10 - 15 starts for Tazawa and Doubront (or perhaps Wake) to share.  That is not too worrisome, especially if the bullpen is excellent.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    I know Wake is not on the roster yet.  But if the money is tight, he is still one of the best cheap options to fit into the role of long relief, occasional starter.  He's still out there, and that bridge has not been burned or torn down just yet, though many here would like to think it has been, or certainly should be.
    Posted by parhunter1


    When people start to see what options there are at just $1M/yr, many will not like Wake, but as I have said all along, if we are to stay below the tax limit, Wake is one of a few options out there to fill that 6th starter role. I'd like to see us give Webb a chance (maybe a minor league deal).
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Look at what a few "low cost" free agent pitchers have gotten so far:

    Bedard    $4.5x 1 year
    Capuano $5M x 2
    B. Chen   $4.5M x 2
    Garcia      $4M x 1
    Harang    $6M x 2
    Marquis   $3M x 1
    Talbot      $.3M x 1
    Wada       $4M x 2
    Wang       $4M x 1
    Willis        $1M x 1

    Free agent starters still out there:

    Wei-Yin Chen
    B. Colon
    A. Cook
    K. Davies
    D. Davis
    Z. Duke
    J. Francis
    Gallarraga
    Garland
    R. Harden
    Hensley
    L. Hernandez
    Iwakuma
    E. Jackson (type B)
    Kazmir
    Kuroda (type B)
    R. Lopez
    Maholm
    Millwood
    Mitre
    Ohlendorf
    Oswalt (type A)
    Penny
    Pineiro
    J-J Reyes
    Saunders
    Vazquez
    Wakefield
    B. Webb
    C. Young

    How many of these guys can be signed and keep us under the tax limit?
    Answer: not many.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    Look at what a few "low cost" free agent pitchers have gotten so far: Bedard    $4.5x 1 year Capuano $5M x 2 B. Chen   $4.5M x 2 Garcia      $4M x 1 Harang    $6M x 2 Marquis   $3M x 1 Talbot      $.3M x 1 Wada       $4M x 2 Wang       $4M x 1 Willis        $1M x 1 Free agent starters still out there: Wei-Yin Chen B. Colon A. Cook K. Davies D. Davis Z. Duke J. Francis Gallarraga Garland R. Harden Hensley L. Hernandez Iwakuma E. Jackson (type B) Kazmir Kuroda (type B) R. Lopez Maholm Millwood Mitre Ohlendorf Oswalt (type A) Penny Pineiro J-J Reyes Saunders Vazquez Wakefield B. Webb C. Young How many of these guys can be signed and keep us under the tax limit? Answer: not many.
    Posted by moonslav59


    moon, I think the best chance to "really" improve our rotation at this point lies in a salary dump but where?  Good intelligent moves so far but it gets much more difficult now.  I'm not real worried about RH, OF bat if Avilies can help out a bit and play pretty good defense but one more starter could really make or break our season.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    A "salary dump" that isn't too big of a salary that it puts us over the limit is even harder to find.

    I live near Houston and have been hearing the Astros are shopping Wandy Rodriguez and Btree Myers, but both are making too much. Unless we shed some salary ($6M Scutty, $6M Jenks, $12M Youk, $2.1M Iggy, $1+M Salty or Albers...) they are not options that can keep us under the limit.

    I think our best bets are guys like Jurrjens and maybe Garza if Theo would pay some of the cost or take a guy like Jenks to offset the salary hit (not likely).

    We may have to settle on prayers like Wake, Webb, Harden, Maholm, or Colon (or 2 of them).

    I also have my own views that appear to be in the minority, but would help us get some talent one way or another:

    1) Iggy ($2.1M x 2) He's not playing this year, and so we are paying him $2.0625M to play in AAA. We have Aviles and Punto and Bogaerts. I know Scutaro is gone in 2013 and Iggy could be that guy, but I think several teams would start Iggy at SS in 2012 and therefore they may value him more than we do at this point.

    2) Scutaro ($6M x 1) I'd rather have Iggy playing SS in 2012 anyways, so to me, we lose nothing but depth by trading Scutty. Iggy gets maybe 60-80 less hits than Scutty would get, but saves 80-100 on defense. The plus comes from what we can sign or trade for with $6M free'd up from the payroll.

    3) Salty (2nd or 3 arbs: maybe ~$1.5-3M?) I'd rather have Lavarnway playing as much catcher as possible in the bigs. He could be the big RH'd bat nearly everyone is screaming for, and yet, he is likely to be in AAA. He doesn't match up well with Shoppach (both hit LHPs much better), but maybe he can "rest" at DH vs some LHPs as Shoppach catches. I think Salty's value is high right now, perhaps as high as it ever gets. Teams are dying for offense from the catching position. He had the 13th best OPS among FT catchers (8th best Slg%). To me, we gain with Lava catching 110 games and Shoppach 52 rather than Salty 120 and Shoppach 42. Plus, we lose Salty's contract and gain something in return.

    4) Jenks ($6M) I still think we should just send him to the Cubs and call the Theo issue solved. We'd save $6M and could probably get 2 Free agent RPs that have a better shot at helping in 2012 than him. Or, trade Jenks and prospects for Garza and call the Theo issue settled.

    5) Albers ($1.075M) and 4 pitchers out of options: Doubront, Morales, Atchison, & Bowden. Trading any combination of 2 or 3 for 1 better pitcher would improve our staff and solve the option problem we are bound to have at the end of ST.

    6) Crawford ($20.3M), Lackey ($16.5M-maybe less if injury claus kicks in), Dice-K ($8M) are unrealistic trade options unless we eat a lot of the salary or trade for salary dump players in retern at positions we are in higher need of.  

    7) Youkilis ($10.4MM) I realize  his value is down. His health is a big concern. We need RH'd power and batting. I also realize some teams just lost their great 1Bmen and maybe be desperate to ease the loss. I had envisioned a possible Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B until Middlebrooks or Cecchini is ready, but Jed is gone now. Punto is very good, but not the great hitter vs LHPs that Jed was. Perhaps the best trade possibility for Youk would be to trade him to a contender for prospects, and then flip some or all of those prospects plus some of our own for a quality low cost 3rd-4th starter type. This may be unrealistic as well, but his high salary begs to be considered as a possible trade to free up tax limit space.

    8) Middlebrooks (pre-arb) Many feel Cecchini will be better than Middlebrooks, and perhaps trading Middlebrooks now (with others) could land us a low cost innings eater starter.

    9) Ellsbury (2nd of 3 arbs: ~$7-10M). With Bore-A$$ as his agent, it is likely he will bolt in 2 years or get CC-type money or more. Yes, we'd get 2 picks if he bolts, but we could get a lot right now in trade, and perhaps save money this year and next. I'd want a quality 2/3 starter with 3+ years of control in return, but am not sure that is a possibility. Plus, we'd then need to get a CF'er.

    10) Blocked prospects:
    *Lars Anderson 1B (We have Youk, Papi, Salty, and Lava who can all cover 1B if AGon gets hurt).
    *Reynaldo Rodriguez 1B (25 years old) see above about 1B coverage.
    *Sean Coyle (2B) Soxprospects #11, 19 years old.
    *Oscar Tejada (2B) Soxprospects #18, 22 years old
    * Kolbrin Vitek (3B) Soxprospects #16, 22 y/o(Middlebrooks/Cecchini)

    (I didn't mention Beckett ($17M) since I just don't see us trading away our best starter for less than his skill-set due to his high salary, but if we saved money and got a quality starter in return, then used the savings to get another starter, I suppose it is doable.) 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    A "salary dump" that isn't too big of a salary that it puts us over the limit is even harder to find. I live near Houston and have been hearing the Astros are shopping Wandy Rodriguez and Btree Myers, but both are making too much. Unless we shed some salary ($6M Scutty, $6M Jenks, $12M Youk, $2.1M Iggy, $1+M Salty or Albers...) they are not options that can keep us under the limit. I think our best bets are guys like Jurrjens and maybe Garza if Theo would pay some of the cost or take a guy like Jenks to offset the salary hit (not likely). We may have to settle on prayers like Wake, Webb, Harden, Maholm, or Colon (or 2 of them). I also have my own views that appear to be in the minority, but would help us get some talent one way or another: 1) Iggy ($2.1M x 2) He's not playing this year, and so we are paying him $2.0625M to play in AAA. We have Aviles and Punto and Bogaerts. I know Scutaro is gone in 2013 and Iggy could be that guy, but I think several teams would start Iggy at SS in 2012 and therefore they may value him more than we do at this point. 2) Scutaro ($6M x 1) I'd rather have Iggy playing SS in 2012 anyways, so to me, we lose nothing but depth by trading Scutty. Iggy gets maybe 60-80 less hits than Scutty would get, but saves 80-100 on defense. The plus comes from what we can sign or trade for with $6M free'd up from the payroll. 3) Salty (2nd or 3 arbs: maybe ~$1.5-3M?) I'd rather have Lavarnway playing as much catcher as possible in the bigs. He could be the big RH'd bat nearly everyone is screaming for, and yet, he is likely to be in AAA. He doesn't match up well with Shoppach (both hit LHPs much better), but maybe he can "rest" at DH vs some LHPs as Shoppach catches. I think Salty's value is high right now, perhaps as high as it ever gets. Teams are dying for offense from the catching position. He had the 13th best OPS among FT catchers (8th best Slg%). To me, we gain with Lava catching 110 games and Shoppach 52 rather than Salty 120 and Shoppach 42. Plus, we lose Salty's contract and gain something in return. 4) Jenks ($6M) I still think we should just send him to the Cubs and call the Theo issue solved. We'd save $6M and could probably get 2 Free agent RPs that have a better shot at helping in 2012 than him. Or, trade Jenks and prospects for Garza and call the Theo issue settled. 5) Albers ($1.075M) and 4 pitchers out of options: Doubront, Morales, Atchison, & Bowden. Trading any combination of 2 or 3 for 1 better pitcher would improve our staff and solve the option problem we are bound to have at the end of ST. 6) Crawford ($20.3M), Lackey ($16.5M-maybe less if injury claus kicks in), Dice-K ($8M) are unrealistic trade options unless we eat a lot of the salary or trade for salary dump players in retern at positions we are in higher need of.   7) Youkilis ($10.4MM) I realize  his value is down. His health is a big concern. We need RH'd power and batting. I also realize some teams just lost their great 1Bmen and maybe be desperate to ease the loss. I had envisioned a possible Aviles/Lowrie platoon at 3B until Middlebrooks or Cecchini is ready, but Jed is gone now. Punto is very good, but not the great hitter vs LHPs that Jed was. Perhaps the best trade possibility for Youk would be to trade him to a contender for prospects, and then flip some or all of those prospects plus some of our own for a quality low cost 3rd-4th starter type. This may be unrealistic as well, but his high salary begs to be considered as a possible trade to free up tax limit space. 8) Middlebrooks (pre-arb) Many feel Cecchini will be better than Middlebrooks, and perhaps trading Middlebrooks now (with others) could land us a low cost innings eater starter. 9) Ellsbury (2nd of 3 arbs: ~$7-10M). With Bore-A$$ as his agent, it is likely he will bolt in 2 years or get CC-type money or more. Yes, we'd get 2 picks if he bolts, but we could get a lot right now in trade, and perhaps save money this year and next. I'd want a quality 2/3 starter with 3+ years of control in return, but am not sure that is a possibility. Plus, we'd then need to get a CF'er. 10) Blocked prospects: *Lars Anderson 1B (We have Youk, Papi, Salty, and Lava who can all cover 1B if AGon gets hurt). *Reynaldo Rodriguez 1B (25 years old) see above about 1B coverage. *Sean Coyle (2B) Soxprospects #11, 19 years old. *Oscar Tejada (2B) Soxprospects #18, 22 years old * Kolbrin Vitek (3B) Soxprospects #16, 22 y/o(Middlebrooks/Cecchini) (I didn't mention Beckett ($17M) since I just don't see us trading away our best starter for less than his skill-set due to his high salary, but if we saved money and got a quality starter in return, then used the savings to get another starter, I suppose it is doable.) 
    Posted by moonslav59


    That is my argument for trading Beckett, along with the fact that I see potential trouble between Beckett and Bobby V.  Beckett for a Garza quality starter frees up enough salary to sign Kuroda.  Beckett may win 17 - 20 games this year (then again, he may win 12-15).  Garza and Kuroda would easily win 25 games between them and at less money.  More importantly, Beckett probably pitches 180-190 innings if all goes well, while Kuroda and Garza project to pitch 400 innings between them.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    That is my argument for trading Beckett, along with the fact that I see potential trouble between Beckett and Bobby V. 

    Perhaps, but sometimes players thrive with a little adversity (Reggie vs Billy).

    Beckett for a Garza quality starter frees up enough salary to sign Kuroda. 

    I'm not impressed with Kuroda and am not sure how he'd do in the AL East, but I get your point.

    Beckett may win 17 - 20 games this year (then again, he may win 12-15). 
    Garza and Kuroda would easily win 25 games between them and at less money.  More importantly, Beckett probably pitches 180-190 innings if all goes well, while Kuroda and Garza project to pitch 400 innings between them.

    ..if all goes well as well...
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron analyzes the bargain-hunting for starting pitchers last January:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/where-the-free-agent-value-was-last-winter/
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron analyzes the bargain-hunting for starting pitchers last January: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/where-the-free-agent-value-was-last-winter/
    Posted by hill55

    Great article hill. I hope we guess right on a cheap signing.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    1)  Sign:  Garland and Kazmir
    2)  Keep Bard and Aceves in the pen
    3)  Put Doubrant in the rotation

    Rotation is:

    Buck, Lester, Beckett........#5 is Doubrant.....They should sign John Garland to be their #4

    Pen is:

    Bailey Closer
    Bard Set-Up/Spot Closer
    Melacon - RH Short Man
    Morales - LH Set Up Man
    Albiers - RH Short Man (when Melacon is not available)
    Aceves - RH Long Man/Swing Man

    They need one more arm in the pen and it should be a lefty that can toss multiple innings.  Rich Hill is a strong candidate.  But I'd like to see them get Scott Kazmir to be their LH Long Man/Swing Man out of the pen and between Kazmir and Hill you could fill that last roster spot.  There is very little left in the system now to help in 2012.

    I would be very comfortable w/ this pen.  The starting rotation is going to come down to (1)  can Buck stay healthy and (2)  can Beckett OR Lester get his act together......We need 2 of these 3 to step up big time next year otherwise we got no chance.  In short, Ben doesn't need to do too much and I will be very pleased going into the season.  I am just not comfortable using Bard and Aceves in the rotation and Jenks does not make this team; Ozzie was right.  At best I keep him around to back up Albiers in case of injury.

    Rotation:

    1.  Buck (R)
    2.  Lester (L)
    3.  Beckett (R)
    4.  Garland (R)
    5.  Doubrant (L)

    (It's OK if a starter needs to miss a couple of starts w/ Aceves and Kazmir on this roster, but if they lose any of the starters long term we could be in trouble due to lack of depth in the minors for arms or depth in the minors to deal a postion player for a reliable starter mid-season).

    Pen (7):

    Bailey (R) Closer
    Bard Set Up/Spot Closer
    Melacon - RH Short Man
    Morales - LH Set Up Man
    Albiers - RH Short Man  (Jenks in AAA Reserve)
    Aceves - RH Long Man/Swing Man
    Kazmir - LH Long Man/Swing Man (Rich Hill in AAA Reserve)
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Garland and Kazmir might be good signings, as might be 1 or 2 of these low-cost guys...
    B. Colon
    J. Francis
    R. Harden
    E. Jackson (type B)
    Kuroda (type B)
    Maholm
    Oswalt (type A)
    Pineiro
    Saunders
    Vazquez
    Wakefield
    B. Webb
    C. Young

    but I'm not sure if and how many we can sign and stay under or near the tax limit.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    1)  Sign:  Garland and Kazmir 2)  Keep Bard and Aceves in the pen 3)  Put Doubrant in the rotation Rotation is: Buck, Lester, Beckett........#5 is Doubrant.....They should sign John Garland to be their #4 Pen is: Bailey Closer Bard Set-Up/Spot Closer Melacon - RH Short Man Morales - LH Set Up Man Albiers - RH Short Man (when Melacon is not available) Aceves - RH Long Man/Swing Man They need one more arm in the pen and it should be a lefty that can toss multiple innings.  Rich Hill is a strong candidate.  But I'd like to see them get Scott Kazmir to be their LH Long Man/Swing Man out of the pen and between Kazmir and Hill you could fill that last roster spot.  There is very little left in the system now to help in 2012. I would be very comfortable w/ this pen.  The starting rotation is going to come down to (1)  can Buck stay healthy and (2)  can Beckett OR Lester get his act together......We need 2 of these 3 to step up big time next year otherwise we got no chance.  In short, Ben doesn't need to do too much and I will be very pleased going into the season.  I am just not comfortable using Bard and Aceves in the rotation and Jenks does not make this team; Ozzie was right.  At best I keep him around to back up Albiers in case of injury. Rotation : 1.  Buck (R) 2.  Lester (L) 3.  Beckett (R) 4.  Garland (R) 5.  Doubrant (L) (It's OK if a starter needs to miss a couple of starts w/ Aceves and Kazmir on this roster, but if they lose any of the starters long term we could be in trouble due to lack of depth in the minors for arms or depth in the minors to deal a postion player for a reliable starter mid-season). Pen (7) : Bailey (R) Closer Bard Set Up/Spot Closer Melacon - RH Short Man Morales - LH Set Up Man Albiers - RH Short Man  (Jenks in AAA Reserve) Aceves - RH Long Man/Swing Man Kazmir - LH Long Man/Swing Man (Rich Hill in AAA Reserve)
    Posted by andrewmitch


    andrewmitch, I would be shocked to see Doubront in the starting rotation unless he has a great spring.  Even then it would probably be as our sixth or seventh starter just to save money.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    I agree with what was said a page or so ago about the injury factor.  The Sox have finished 3rd twice in a row and it was due to the injury factor each year.  Beckett and Lester will both find the DL at least once during the year and until the season starts, no one knows how Buch will fare with his back.  I favor finding a pitcher or two that can offer at least .500 winning % which should be easy with this team's hitting...and hope that the injury factor limits the need to use them on a regular basis.  Pitching has killed this team for the last 3 years.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    Garland and Kazmir might be good signings, as might be 1 or 2 of these low-cost guys... B. Colon J. Francis R. Harden E. Jackson (type B) Kuroda (type B) Maholm Oswalt (type A) Pineiro Saunders Vazquez Wakefield B. Webb C. Young but I'm not sure if and how many we can sign and stay under or near the tax limit.
    Posted by moonslav59


    Well first, you have to look at the budget - we have 6.5 million left. 

    I am thinking Garland for a one year at 4 million so he could get a chance to rebuild his value for 2013 and get a multi-year deal (we won't need him beyond this year so hopefully we get a nice draft pick for him)

    Kazmir at 2.5 million for a 1 year deal with a chance for him to find a new career as a reliever and again, to re-build value to go back on the market in 2013.

    Garland is a work-horse and can give us innings.  He has success in the Post Season.  Kazmir is tough on lefties and is still very young at I believe 26 to 28 or so.

    If you look at the budget, Kurudo, Jackson, and Oswalt would all put us over budget.  Colon, Pinero, Wakefield - been there done that.  Harden we could have had last year but he's too injury prone (worst than Kaz).  Vasquez, Francis and Saunders would all get lit up in the AL East and particularly in Fenway.  Webb is incredibly injury prone too and I think would also be expensive but if you know something more about him (ie he's ready to go and not asking for big $) then sure, Webb would be fantastic.  I don't know enough about Malhom and Young but I know enough that I'd rather have Garland.

    Believe me, I went through the entire FA list before I came to conclusion that Garland and Kaz are the way to go.  I didn't think I would find anyone left on the heap pile but these guys were a good fit based on what we needed.  It was a lucky situation. 

    Do I think Ben will do this?  No way.  I think he may get one or the other but no way he does both.  Too bad though.......

    Anyways, I would take every last cent I have and get these 2 guys and call it an off-season and turn to the farm for filling in any gaps.

    Plus, 2013 they will reset the luxury tax rate, they will lose a chunk of change off payroll (Ortiz + Dice K + Jenks + Scut = 35 million) plus the FA crop will be much more attractive.  In short, they will be big players next winter and this is actually the "bridge year" IMO.  We are going to have to patient this year and if we make the playoffs it's just gravy.  Remember, we have Crawford, Lackey, Dice K, and Jenks @ 52 million dollars, that FIVE TWO MILLION FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES as pure and complete dead weight thanks to the Boy Wonder who was last seen fleeing the scene at Midway.

    I can see Ben's plan and I think he's doing the right thing.  Now go get Garland and Kazmir!!!!!!!!!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Well first, you have to look at the budget - we have 6.5 million left.  

    We don't know what we have "left" because we have not signed all our arb players, including Papi. Also, did you include the palyer benefit payment into your total? Some say it is $2M, another said it was closer to $9M. Which number did you use?

    I am thinking Garland for a one year at 4 million so he could get a chance to rebuild his value for 2013 and get a multi-year deal (we won't need him beyond this year so hopefully we get a nice draft pick for him)

    I'm not sure what Garland will get, but if we can get him and stay under the limit, I'd say he's as good a gamble as any.

    Kazmir at 2.5 million for a 1 year deal with a chance for him to find a new career as a reliever and again, to re-build value to go back on the market in 2013.

    I think there may be other better choices than him at $2.5M.

    Garland is a work-horse and can give us innings.  He has success in the Post Season.  Kazmir is tough on lefties and is still very young at I believe 26 to 28 or so.

    If you look at the budget, Kurudo, Jackson, and Oswalt would all put us over budget.  Colon, Pinero, Wakefield - been there done that.  Harden we could have had last year but he's too injury prone (worst than Kaz).  Vasquez, Francis and Saunders would all get lit up in the AL East and particularly in Fenway.  Webb is incredibly injury prone too and I think would also be expensive but if you know something more about him (ie he's ready to go and not asking for big $) then sure, Webb would be fantastic.  I don't know enough about Malhom and Young but I know enough that I'd rather have Garland.

    I heard somewhere that Webb may get a minor league deal at best. 
    Maholm is 29, is LH'd, and holds the opp's LH'd batters to a .593 OPS (career). In very limited action vs AL East teams, his highest ERA is 3.38 (vs NYY).

    Believe me, I went through the entire FA list before I came to conclusion that Garland and Kaz are the way to go.  I didn't think I would find anyone left on the heap pile but these guys were a good fit based on what we needed.  It was a lucky situation.  

    They may be good choices, but I'm not sure we have $6M to spend.

    Do I think Ben will do this?  No way.  I think he may get one or the other but no way he does both.  Too bad though.......

    We need to get 2 more starters somehow, someway. Our starter depth is pitiful.

    Anyways, I would take every last cent I have and get these 2 guys and call it an off-season and turn to the farm for filling in any gaps.

    I don't disagree with your plan. Until last year, garland was a workhorse. Is he 100% healthy now?

    Kazmir has awful numbers since 2009 or 2010. $2.5M spent on him? I think I'd rather go with Wake and Webb at $1.25M each.

    Plus, 2013 they will reset the luxury tax rate, they will lose a chunk of change off payroll (Ortiz + Dice K + Jenks + Scut = 35 million) plus the FA crop will be much more attractive.  In short, they will be big players next winter and this is actually the "bridge year" IMO.  We are going to have to patient this year and if we make the playoffs it's just gravy.  Remember, we have Crawford, Lackey, Dice K, and Jenks @ 52 million dollars, that FIVE TWO MILLION FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES as pure and complete dead weight thanks to the Boy Wonder who was last seen fleeing the scene at Midway.

    We may also see Lackey's average annual salary go down if the injury clause kicks in and we get him at an extra year at min wage. We could also cut Miller (nonguaranteed deal) to help stay under the cap if needed.

    I can see Ben's plan and I think he's doing the right thing.  Now go get Garland and Kazmir!!!!!!!!!

    Why do you have so much faith in Kaz?
    2009  147 IP  4.89 ERA  1.419 WHIP
    2010  150   5.94  1.580
    2011   1.2 27.00  4.200

    Even Wake has better numbers thatn these.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    All good points/questions.....Let me just comment on the budget.

    I factored in all of what you mentioned:  Lackey's new average annual salary and a million dollars for medical insurance plus the salary for the other 15 roster guys (it's based on the 40 man roster plus the DL).....I also estimated for ARB adjustments (and I did so conservatively; giving more to the players).  I can send you my excel file but my plan gets us exactly at 178 million. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    PS - I had my nephew investigating Garland's health but I think he's falling asleep at the wheel.  I'll wake him up again :)  (I know JG did not finish the season which is why we could get him for half price)
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that Jon Garland (shoulder) is recovering on schedule and could throw for teams this offseason, depending on demand.
    Garland underwent rotator cuff surgery on his right shoulder in July, a procedure that typically knocks a player out of commission for at least a year or so, but it sounds like the 32-year-old has a shot to be ready for spring training. Even if he proves that his shoulder is sound, he'd likely have to settle for a one-year, incentive-laden contract. Nov 4 - 8:52 AM
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    I thought I provided the rationale for Kaz?

    1)  He isn't even 27 yet

    2)  He could be gotten for cheap

    3)  His career is at a crossroads and given he can be murder on Lefties, I think he is a strong candidate to re-invent himself as a reliever

    4)  We need a second lefty in the pen who can throw multiple innings and ideally, someone who could also start in a pinch given our thin rotation (btw, you mentioned a thin rotation which we have but I believe if you have Aceves and a healthy Kazmir in the pen, it does hedge against a starter missing some starts which they will....it does not however protect you if a starter goes down for the season and well, that's just the way it is going to be this year given we have the 52 million dollars on the shelf to thank for that).
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff


    Wastefield is available for a dollar.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    I thought I provided the rationale for Kaz? 1)  He isn't even 27 yet Posted by andrewmitch

    To be precise, Scott Kazmir turns 28 next month:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Rotator in July...no thanks. Dice-K will be ready before he is.

    Kaz has been down for 3 straight seasons...I wouldn't offer more than $1.5 or $2M/1 year.
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share