Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    We need pitchers who are ready opening day and can give us some innings.

    Bill Hall could "give us some innings".

    Even Wastefield could give innings to another team, except that no other team wants him for more than a penny and a minor league contract.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Earlier, I did suggest that an Aviles/Lowrie 3B platoon (with Middelbrooks  maybe helping later in the year) would not be as much of a downgrade as the upgrade we'd get with Wandy. (3 team trade).

    Now that Lowrie's bat vs LHPs is gone, I don't have faith in Aviles/Punto to take over for some Youk's offense to the same extent.

    It was:

    Aviles/Lowrie (Middlebrooks) at 3B over Youk
    Wandy over Doubront at #4 starter.

    Also, I merely suggested this trade as a possible way to improve pitching by sacrificing offense. I didn't say I was for it.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    When you look at what these free agent starting pitchers got for contracts, we may not sign any other starters else this year:
    Bedard    $4.5/1
    Capuano $10m/2
    B Chen    $9M/2
    Garcia      $4M/1
    Harang    $12M/2
    Marquis   $3M/1
    T. Wada   $8.2M/2
    C-M Wang $4M/1
    Willis         $1M/1

    Here's what's left:
    Wei-Yin Chen
    B Colon
    A Cook
    K Davies
    D Davis
    Z Duke
    J Francis
    Galarraga
    J Garland
    R Harden
    C Hensley
    L Hernandez
    H Iwakuma
    E Jackson
    S Kazmir
    H Kuroda
    R Lopez
    P Maholm
    Millwood
    S Mitre
    Olendorf
    R Oswalt
    B Penny
    J Pineiro
    J Saunders
    J Vazquez
    Wakefield
    B Webb
    C Young

    Look at Jason Marquis. He turns 34 in August. He put up these numbers in the NL the last 6 years:
    8-6      4.43  1.492
    2-9      6.60  1.705
    15-13 4.04  1.380
    11-9   4.53  1.449
    12-9   4.60  1.388
    14-16 6.02  1.523

    $3M for this? 
    190 IP as a starter the past 2 years.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]When you look at what these free agent starting pitchers got for contracts, we may not sign any other starters else this year: Bedard    $4.5/1 Capuano $10m/2 B Chen    $9M/2 Garcia      $4M/1 Harang    $12M/2 Marquis   $3M/1 T. Wada   $8.2M/2 C-M Wang $4M/1 Willis         $1M/1 Here's what's left: Wei-Yin Chen B Colon A Cook K Davies D Davis Z Duke J Francis Galarraga J Garland R Harden C Hensley L Hernandez H Iwakuma E Jackson S Kazmir H Kuroda R Lopez P Maholm Millwood S Mitre Olendorf R Oswalt B Penny J Pineiro J Saunders J Vazquez Wakefield B Webb C Young Look at Jason Marquis. He turns 34 in August. He put up these numbers in the NL the last 6 years: 8-6      4.43  1.492 2-9      6.60  1.705 15-13 4.04  1.380 11-9   4.53  1.449 12-9   4.60  1.388 14-16 6.02  1.523 $3M for this?  190 IP as a starter the past 2 years.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Could say Supply vs. Demand, have to love Capitalism. Just think if this were a socialist state we would just pay them all the same. Not enough good pitching to go around. Know RS will not spend alot of money. From that list the only guys I like Maholm [I'll keep beating this dead horse]; Ohlendorf [if healthy] / Joe Saunders. IMO RS should stay away from guys like R.Harden, we have enough guys who can't seem to stay on field. Looks like trade might be best way to go. Something tells me RS are going to end up w/ an arm from Cubs for Theo compensation, something tells me already agreed, just don't want to finalize til offseason complete.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff : Could say Supply vs. Demand, have to love Capitalism. Just think if this were a socialist state we would just pay them all the same. Not enough good pitching to go around. Know RS will not spend alot of money. From that list the only guys I like Maholm [I'll keep beating this dead horse]; Ohlendorf [if healthy] / Joe Saunders. IMO RS should stay away from guys like R.Harden, we have enough guys who can't seem to stay on field. Looks like trade might be best way to go. Something tells me RS are going to end up w/ an arm from Cubs for Theo compensation, something tells me already agreed, just don't want to finalize til offseason complete.
    Posted by garyhow[/QUOTE]

    I'm not sure about the Cubs idea. I think the return will be measly.

    I do think a trade makes more sense along with one or two more Carlos Silva-type deals. I know we have lost some prospects recently by trading for AGon, Bedard, Aviles, Melancon, and Bailey, but we had a deep draft last year and will have extra pick(s) this year as well. I'm not sure of the value of some of our "blocked prospects" (1B/2B and maybe C) like Sean Coyle, Oscar Tejada, Kolbrin Vitek (Middlebrooks/Cecchini are ahead of him),  Lars Anderson, Christian Vazquez (C), Reynaldo Rodriguez (1B-25 y/o), Luis Exposito (C), Jordan Weems (C), Dan Butler (C), David Renfroe (3B), and Travis Shaw (1B/3B). I have mentioned 2 other "unpopular" to this board options:

    1) Trade Scutaro and save close to $6M. Use the money to upgrade pitching or possibly even some towards getting a guy like Cody Ross. I actually would prefer to see Iggy/Aviles/Punto at SS than Scutaro due to their much better fielding. We also have Bogaerts waiting in the wings at SS/3B as well.

    2) Trade Salty and save his somewhat minimal contract (arb), but more importantly, free up the RH'd Lavarnway to get into this line-up. We need a strong RH'd bat, especially if Youk goes down again (or stays in decline). I know this is not popular. I know Salty hit pretty well last year (for a catcher), but I lost confidence in his defense, game-calling, and stamina skills.  I know this isn't going to happen, especially since the acquired Shoppach-another RH'd hitting catcher that matches up much better vs LHPs as does Lava not Salty.

    3) Dump salary by paying portions of certain player's salaries in order to free up money to spend on pitching and replacing said player 9in some cases). This possibility is also very remote. If we have to pay 90% of the salary of some of these guys, it's nt worth losing their potential for just a minimal gain is payroll flexibility, but here are some names:
    CC:  12:$19.5M, 13:$20M, 14:$20.25M, 15:$20.5M, 16:$20.75M,17:$21M 
    Beckett: 12:$15.75M, 13:$15.75M, 14:$15.75M
    Lackey: 12:$15.25M, 13:$15.25M, 14:$15.25M, 15: $ Min wage
    Youkilis: 12:$12M, 13:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
    Papi: TBA (arb)
    Dice-K: 12:$10M
    Scutaro: (see above) 12:$6M
    Jenks: 12:$6M
    Ellsbury: TBA (arb2 of 3)
    Iglesias: 12: 2.1M, 13: $2.1M (then arb)

    As you can see, nothing will be easy.


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    I think the Sox are going forward with Bard in the Rotation, meaning 4 spots are taken, so really the discussion is who is the 5th starter coming out of ST and who are the 6-8 guys, who will be needed once injury hits, which it will.

    The addition of both Meloncon and Bailey, would indicated that the back end of the BP has 2 RH in place, so that would seem to open the door for Aceves to transition to the rotation.  When you start talking about pitching depth is when I think you get to Silva, Taz, Miller, Doubrant, with perhaps one of the LH in that group competing for a spot in the rotation with Aceves starting in the pen.  The mid-season arrival of Dice K also will hopefully help with the depth.

    1. Lester 2. Beckett 3. Buchholz 4. Bard 5. Aceves or LHer

    As with any season, the health of the top 3-4 will be a bigger factor in the success of the rotation than anything else.

    Regarding more additions to the staff, with the Red Sox so close to Luxury Tax as they stand now, it is hard to envision them bringing in another arm of significance, especially since they still haven't addressed what they are doing in right field.  At least I hope they haven't addressed RF yet.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]I think the Sox are going forward with Bard in the Rotation, meaning 4 spots are taken, so really the discussion is who is the 5th starter coming out of ST and who are the 6-8 guys, who will be needed once injury hits, which it will. The addition of both Meloncon and Bailey, would indicated that the back end of the BP has 2 RH in place, so that would seem to open the door for Aceves to transition to the rotation.  When you start talking about pitching depth is when I think you get to Silva, Taz, Miller, Doubrant, with perhaps one of the LH in that group competing for a spot in the rotation with Aceves starting in the pen.  The mid-season arrival of Dice K also will hopefully help with the depth. 1. Lester 2. Beckett 3. Buchholz 4. Bard 5. Aceves or LHer As with any season, the health of the top 3-4 will be a bigger factor in the success of the rotation than anything else. Regarding more additions to the staff, with the Red Sox so close to Luxury Tax as they stand now, it is hard to envision them bringing in another arm of significance, especially since they still haven't addressed what they are doing in right field.  At least I hope they haven't addressed RF yet.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]

    It's hard for me to envision us winning a WS without bringing in another arm.

    You speak of the pen having Melancon and Bailey "opens the door" for Aceves to defect to the rotation. There's 2 major problems with this strategy:

    1) I don't see Bailey and Melancon replacing Paps, Bard and Aceves. If Bard and Aceves go to the rotation, our pen is in serious trouble, unless we add an arm (starter so Aceves remains a releiver or a new middle reliever that has to eat innings as effectively as Aceves did... hardly likely.)

    2) Our 3 man top of the pen was one of the best this team has ever seen, and yet they got burnt out by year's end.  Looking at Bard and Aceves as our 4/5 starters doesn't bode well for less pen work needed in 2012. As bad as Lackey and Wake may have done in 2011, they did eat innings. I don't see Bard and Aceves getting more than the 315 IP that Lack/Wake got, or the 390 that Lack/Dice/Wake/Bedard got combined.

    I also highly doubt that Beckett, Lester and Buch all get 28+ starts and 200 innings of quality pitching. It has never happened. Assuming it doesn't in 2012, bard and Aceves in the rotation will not be enough. The depth of Miller, Doubront, Tazawa, Silva, and Wilson will not do any better than Dice/Wake/Bedard did in 2011 as our 5-7 starters. Miller was our 8/9 starter last year; he's our 6th starter this year. I don't see his 5.54 ERA and 1.815 WHIP as a reason for the promotion. 

    We need at least one more quality pitcher. RF is an aferthought.



     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff : It's hard for me to envision us winning a WS without bringing in another arm. You speak of the pen having Melancon and Bailey "opens the door" for Aceves to defect to the rotation. There's 2 major problems with this strategy: 1) I don't see Bailey and Melancon replacing Paps, Bard and Aceves. If Bard and Aceves go to the rotation, our pen is in serious trouble, unless we add an arm (starter so Aceves remains a releiver or a new middle reliever that has to eat innings as effectively as Aceves did... hardly likely.) 2) Our 3 man top of the pen was one of the best this team has ever seen, and yet they got burnt out by year's end.   Looking at Bard and Aceves as our 4/5 starters doesn't bode well for less pen work needed in 2012. As bad as Lackey and Wake may have done in 2011, they did eat innings. I don't see Bard and Aceves getting more than the 315 IP that Lack/Wake got, or the 390 that Lack/Dice/Wake/Bedard got combined. I also highly doubt that Beckett, Lester and Buch all get 28+ starts and 200 innings of quality pitching. It has never happened. Assuming it doesn't in 2012, bard and Aceves in the rotation will not be enough. The depth of Miller, Doubront, Tazawa, Silva, and Wilson will not do any better than Dice/Wake/Bedard did in 2011 as our 5-7 starters. Miller was our 8/9 starter last year; he's our 6th starter this year. I don't see his 5.54 ERA and 1.815 WHIP as a reason for the promotion.  We need at least one more quality pitcher. RF is an aferthought.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Bailey, Melancon, Aceves would be a very strong back end, no doubt but with where they are in regards to the Luxury tax, I think the best value they are going to get in the rotation is Aceves.  Going out and spending on  a guy like Garland who has some risk, on a 1 year deal, doesn't seem like a good approach right now. 

    I think they will and should be reluctant to trade away more prospects, especially if the return is not in the long term plans.  Perhaps a deal for one last bulllpen piece, like you suggested with Romo, would be the way to go, although I don't see the Giants being very motivated to move him.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    I'm not for Garland. That was someone else. (Maybe Maholm is a better FA choice.)

    My point is, we still need more pitching over upgrading RF.

    I think a trade is most likely. Maybe for Gavin Floyd or Wandy Rodriguez (Astros pay part of deal).
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]It's hard for me to envision us winning a WS without bringing in another arm. [/QUOTE]
    I am all for getting another quality pitcher if at all possible, but I think of it more as insurance for the predictable injuries.  If this team gets to the playoffs a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz & Bard is enough to get it done.  #5 starters don't matter at that point obv.

    [QUOTE]I also highly doubt that Beckett, Lester and Buch all get 28+ starts and 200 innings of quality pitching. [/QUOTE]
    I don't think we need them to all be above 28GS but averaging about 28GS would be important as presently configured.  Last year Beckett, Lester, Lackey and Wake started 112 games.  If Becket, Lester, Buchholz & Bard can have anywhere near that # of GS this year's rotation should be better.

    [QUOTE]We need at least one more quality pitcher. RF is an aferthought.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Totally agree with this.

    Also, I think a pen anchored by Bailey, Melancon & Aceves should be a pretty damn good pen.  It probably won't touch last year's bullpen but that's setting the bar pretty high, IMO.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    It's hard for me to envision us winning a WS without bringing in another arm. 
    I am all for getting another quality pitcher if at all possible, but I think of it more as insurance for the predictable injuries.  If this team gets to the playoffs a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz & Bard is enough to get it done.  #5 starters don't matter at that point obv.

    I also highly doubt that Beckett, Lester and Buch all get 28+ starts and 200 innings of quality pitching. 
    I don't think we need them to all be above 28GS but averaging about 28GS would be important as presently configured.  Last year Beckett, Lester, Lackey and Wake started 112 games.  If Becket, Lester, Buchholz & Bard can have anywhere near that # of GS this year's rotation should be better.

    I agree that an all healthy Beck/Lester/Buch/Bard 4 man playoff rotation is way better than the mostly injured 4 best of 2011, but to get to the playoffs the 5 slot is almost as important as the 1-4 slots individually, and i think we will be worse at that slot.

    We need at least one more quality pitcher. RF is an aferthought.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Totally agree with this.

    Also, I think a pen anchored by Bailey, Melancon & Aceves should be a pretty damn good pen.  It probably won't touch last year's bullpen but that's setting the bar pretty high, IMO.

    It is, but compare that to Paps, Bard and Aceves of 2011, and I sewriously doubt those 3 repeat what the 2011 big 3 pen guys did.

    Here's a breakdown of how I compare 2011 with 2012...

    Let's go along and hope Buch's back allows him to get 40-60 more IPs in 2012 than 2011, I sincerely doubt that we will get this from... (in 2012)
    Beckett  193 IP  2.89
    Lester     192IP  3.47
    It's the first time we got 280+ IP from those two, and the first time we got sub 3.50 ERAs from the two. What makes you think the big 3 will all be fit and able all year long? I hope they are, but we ought to have a plan in case one isn't up to par.

    StL won without their best or second best starter out all year. We should plan to be able to contend if one of our top 3 or 4 get hurt. As of yet, we have not.

    I am looking at where were were last year before opening day. We had very good starting pitching depth and could not have anticipated all the starter injuries we had. My point was that this was our depth chart going into 2011. If Dice-K stayed healthy, Wake was #6. An argumant could be made that Aceves was the #6 and Wake was #7. (Bedard was added and was better than Wake, so in a sense, when we got him, Wake became the 7th starter forced into the 4/5 slot by injuries- or 8th if you count Aceves, who was a better starter, but better and more needed in the pen.)
    2011:
    1) Beckett (Hurt for Sept)/Lester
    2) Lester/Beckett
    3) Buchholtz (Got hurt)
    4) Dice (Got hurt early) /Lackey (pitched hurt)
    5) Lackey/Dice
    6) Bedard after acquired (got hurt a little bit)/ Wake ( before Bedard) [Aceves-better]
    7) Wake (after Bedard acquired)
    8) Aceves (needed more in the pen, but better than Wake) 
    9) Doubront- Got hurt
    10) Miller
    11) Tazawa - hurt
    12) Weiland

    Right now, it appears that this is our starter depth chart (assuming Bard and Aceves both become starters- which kills our pen)
    2012
    1) Beckett
    2) Lester
    3) Buch
    4) Bard (120-140 IP? Lackey had 160)
    5) Aceves (120-140 IP? Dice-Wake-Bedard had 180+ as starters)
    6) Miller
    7) Doubront (Pen?)
    8) Silva
    9) Tazawa (Pen?)
    10) Wilson
    11)Duckworth
    12) Haeger/Pena/Barnes

    Let's follow my 2011 chart and make combinations:
    (I used back-up starters based on GS to make each slot about 27-32 GS)
      Starter stats only used

    1) Beckett  30 GS  193 IP  2.89/1.026 WHIP
         2012: I do not expect equal or better.

    2) Lester    31 GS   193 IP  3.47/ 1.257
         2012: I expect about the same, maybe slightly better.

    3) Buch       14 GS     83 IP  3.48/1.294
        Miller       12 GS    58 IP  5.55/1.800
         2012: I expect, if healthy, better from our 3 slot.

    4) Lackey    28 GS   160IP  6.41/1.619
         2012: I expect better from Bard, but he will tax the pen with less IP

    5) Dice-K        7 GS     36IP  4.95/1.404
        Wake        23GS    137IP  5.31/1.398
         2012: I expect worse from this slot, but if it is Aceves pen is taxed.

    6+) Bedard     8GS     38IP   4.03/1.553
          Weiland   5GS     23IP   8.72/1.846
          Aceves   4GS     21IP   5.14/1.571  
         2012: I expect worse here as well

    I guess we could divide and combine the 2012 slots like this:

    1-3) Beckett/Lester/Buch (Maybe more GS and more IP) Plus to 2012
    4 slot: Bard/Miller                                    Plus over Lackey
    5 slot: Aceves/Doubront                        Minus from Dice/Wake but close
    6+slot: Silva/Tazawa/Wilson               Minus from Bed/Acev/Weil 
            
    I, for one, do not see both Bard and Aceves as starters all year long. If that happens then the pen gets better, but these starter comparisons go south.

    With Bard and Aceves starting instead of Lackey, Dice, Wake and Bedard, we may see our pen taxed to the hilt. Let's look at IP per start last year:
    Beckett  6.43
    Lester     6.18
    Wake       5.97  23 GS
    Buch        5.90
    Lack        5.71   28 GS
    Aceves   5.25
    Dice         5.19
    Miller       4.86
    Bedard    4.75  8 GS
    Weiland  4.33   5 GS
    (Players in red are no longer here for 2012)

    What do we expect from Bard?  4.75 to 5.25?  24 GS?
    What do we expect from Aceves? 5.0 to 5.50? 24 GS?

    How will this effect the 2012 pen that is much worse than a very good 2011 pen?

    2011: (relief IP only) Players in Red will not be in the 2012 pen
    Aceves  93 IP  2.03  1.000  (Assume Albers takes his role)
    Bard       73.0   3.33  0.959  Melancon  74.1  2.78  1.224 in the NL
    Albers    64.2   4.73  1.438
    Paps       64.1   2.94  0.933  Bailey: 41.2  3.24  1.104 in Oak (big park)
    Wheel    49.1    4.38  1.115 (Assume Doubront takes his role)
    Morales 32.1    3.62  1.268
    Atchis    30.1    3.26  1.220
    Bowden 20.0    4.05  1.500
    Wake      17.1    3.63  1.038 (Assume Morales increases his IP)
    Jenks      15.2    6.32  2.234
    Doubr      10.1    6.10  1.935
    Oki             8.1    4.32   1.440
    Will            8.1    6.48   1.800
    R Hill         8.0     0.00   0.750
    Miller        6.2     5.40   1.950
    Hottovy   4.0    6.75    1.750
    Weiland    3.0    0.00    0.333
    Tazawa     3.0   6.00    1.333
    TMiller       2.0   0.00    0.000
    Reyes        1.2  16.20   2.400
    DMac          1.0  18.00  3.000
    Dice-K        1.0   18.00  4.000 

    Overall, I'd say our staff is at best even with 2011.
    We lost Paps, Wake, Lackey, Bedard, Weiland, Wheeler and a few others.
    We gained Bailey, Melancon and hopefully more IP from Buch, Bard, Aceves, Morales, Doubront (Atchison, Bowden, Tazawa).

    Our staff needed to be improved upon going into 2012.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Moon, you are the biggest bore on this board...these stats are meaningless...your conclusion that getting rid of WAKE/LACKEY for 2012 will result in a pitching staff that wont improve from last year is proof of your statistical idiocy....you could literally start anyone in their place and do better....and Clay/Lester will do better than last year...you need a serious intervention with these long-winded posts...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    You obviously didn't bother to read my post. I admitted that Bard and Aceves will be better than Lackey/Wake.  I was pointing out that our 6+ starters and relief will be worse. I also think the big 3 will likely be only the big 2, as someone will get hurt, decline or as you might believe... be too fat to pitch.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    i read your post and you said we overall wont be as good...im telling you getting rid of lackey/wake will by itself make this pitching squad better because the bullpen wont be as taxed...worry about the starters, not the pen (paps is proof of that)...anyone can pitch for an innng and not give up a run....going 6 innings is a whole lot different...

    the key anyways is Clay and lester....and no one knows how they will do...we can only hope that they can go back to 2010 form...
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Moonslav needs be have a concluding paragraph or a synopsis on posts that are that long. It is why some ministers are more listened to who have short, concise sermons on a Sunday morning than those that go on and on. One ends up pretending that he is listening but his mind is in twelve other places. If you can remember back to Eric Severeid on the nightly news doing a commentary on the day's news then you know what I mean. Was it Huntley, Brinkley, and Severeid?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    i read your post and you said we overall wont be as good...im telling you getting rid of lackey/wake will by itself make this pitching squad better because the bullpen wont be as taxed...

    I agree that anyone can do better than Lackey. I'm not sure our 6/7 starter will do better than the 12-11 we went with Wake, but let's assume you are right. However, you are missing an important point: Lackey and Wake went deeper into games than most of our other starters, and though bard and Aceves will almost certainly do better than Lackey/Wake, they likely will not go as deep, and hence will "tax the pen" more.

    Beck  6.43 IP/GS 30GS
    Lest   6.26  31
    Wake 5.97  23
    Buch  5.90  14
    Lack   5.71  28
    Acev   5.25   4
    Dice   5.19    7
    Miller 4.86   12
    Bed    4.74    8
    Weil   4.33    4

    Bard and Aceves should give us more IP/GS than Miller (12), Bedard (8), and Weiland (4), so maybe that will help, but I doubt they give us more IP/GS than Lackey/Wake did. Wake & Lackey were in our top 5.  

    worry about the starters, not the pen (paps is proof of that)...

    Paps is proof of what?
    Besides, I am worried about our starters. That's why I want us to get another quality starter. Getting one will help our starters and improve our pen by attrition.

    anyone can pitch for an innng and not give up a run....going 6 innings is a whole lot different...

    the key anyways is Clay and lester....and no one knows how they will do...we can only hope that they can go back to 2010 form...

    I agree, but I don't think I'm being a pessimist to think that Beckett, Lester, and Buch won't all give us 28+ starts and be in top form. It has never happened. I'm not saying it won't, but I don't think we should assume they all will and that both Bard and Aceves transition nicely to starters and both go deep into most games. If we look at our rotation since 2007 and 2004, we always need a lot of starts from our 6-10 starts. I hope 2012 is like 2004 or 2007, but I think we should plan that we might need at least a good 6th starter (better than Miller/Silva/Doubront).

    As for the pen, without Paps, Aceves and Bard's exceptional seasons, we'd never have gotten to that final game where Paps had a bad game. If you really think the pen is easily interchangeable, I don;t know what more to say.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]Moonslav needs be have a concluding paragraph or a synopsis on posts that are that long. It is why some ministers are more listened to who have short, concise sermons on a Sunday morning than those that go on and on. One ends up pretending that he is listening but his mind is in twelve other places. If you can remember back to Eric Severeid on the nightly news doing a commentary on the day's news then you know what I mean. Was it Huntley, Brinkley, and Severeid?
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE]

    I've made my synopsises over and over. Everyone here pretty much knows my positions by now. I provided the numbers for people tao view and draw their own conclusions. (I gave my opinions along the way.)

    My point is we need pitching and don't have much money to do it. We aren't going to spend big or trade many prospects for a power RH'd bat and/or RF'er. Some here might think moving Bard and Aceves to the 4/5 slots is going to save the day, and Bailey and Melancon and who knows who else will make up for the pen losses of Paps, Bard and Aceves. Yes, making no more pitching moves might mean we can still improve over 2011, but why risk it? Why gamble? We have enough cash to make some minor moves. We have some propsects and possible offense pieces we could move to improve the staff. I don't think I am wrong to feel this way. I think Ben might agree.

    The Globe wrote this today...

    Sox general manager Ben Cherington said earlier today the team is looking for more than one "low-cost" starting pitcher who will enter a competition for the final two starter spots in spring training. It doesn't appear that Cherington will opt for any of the higher priced starters at this time like Hiroki Kuroda, Edwin Jackson or Joe Saunders.

    It seems the Bard & Aceves are not etched into rotation stone. As I have thought all along, I do not see us losing both Bard and Aceves from the pen... maybe one... maybe none...but not likely both.


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Seems alot of people on this board making it out that there is no chance that Melancon/Bailey can replace Paps/Bard at back end of bullpen[which I totally disagree]. First its not a given that Paps /Bard would duplicate what Paps/Bard did last year. Remember it was only last season that many thought RS should take closers role away from Paps. If you look closer at numbers Bards 8th inning numbers were not great, he was at his best in entering in 7th w/ runners aboard [mostly because of his terrible Sept]. Paps had a very good year except for last game when it mattered most. But Paps almost always came in for clean innings [start inning no one aboard]

     player           era      whip        so/k       sv%
    Paps             2.33      1.018      4.43        88
    Bailey           2.09        .954      3.65        89

    Bailey is more than capable of replacing Paps numbers, people will say he doesn't get as many saves, but didn't get as many chances w/ A's. But closer look will say when healthy he's pitched to a sub 2.00 era [in yrs healthy] and had one of the highest save completion rates in baseball, the big concern we should have w/ Bailey is will he stay healthy, but we also had same concern w/ Paps. To me this will be a wash if both players healthy. The Bard/Melancon to me is different, while Melancon is not as hard a thrower as Bard, his ground ball % is much higher and more likely to get DP grounder than K. I had a chance to be at a game Melancon pitched against the Mets and was really impressed. The number that scares you w/ Bard is the save % which explains why BC was going to find another closer.

    player      win%  era    whip    GB/FB%  K/9    save%
    Bard         .182    3.33  .959     1.12        9.1      17 [25% career]
    Melancon .667    2.78  1.224   1.39         8        80 [76% career]

    Looking at the numbers tells you one thing. While Bard is more likely to strike someone out. Melancon is much more likely to win the game or get the save. I know people will say Melancon pitched in Houston & Bailey in Oakland. But biggest upside to these moves is both players are 26 yrs of age and both combined will cost us about 1/3 of what Phillies will pay Paps. I love Paps and what he did for RS, but under the circumstances Ben C should be applauded. Now lets hope they stay healthy which always seems to be a problem for RS players.        
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]Seems alot of people on this board making it out that there is no chance that Melancon/Bailey can replace Paps/Bard at back end of bullpen[which I totally disagree]. First its not a given that Paps /Bard would duplicate what Paps/Bard did last year. Remember it was only last season that many thought RS should take closers role away from Paps. If you look closer at numbers Bards 8th inning numbers were not great, he was at his best in entering in 7th w/ runners aboard [mostly because of his terrible Sept]. Paps had a very good year except for last game when it mattered most. But Paps almost always came in for clean innings [start inning no one aboard]  player           era      whip        so/k       sv% Paps             2.33      1.018      4.43        88 Bailey           2.09        .954      3.65        89 Bailey is more than capable of replacing Paps numbers, people will say he doesn't get as many saves, but didn't get as many chances w/ A's. But closer look will say when healthy he's pitched to a sub 2.00 era [in yrs healthy] and had one of the highest save completion rates in baseball, the big concern we should have w/ Bailey is will he stay healthy, but we also had same concern w/ Paps. To me this will be a wash if both players healthy. The Bard/Melancon to me is different, while Melancon is not as hard a thrower as Bard, his ground ball % is much higher and more likely to get DP grounder than K. I had a chance to be at a game Melancon pitched against the Mets and was really impressed. The number that scares you w/ Bard is the save % which explains why BC was going to find another closer. player      win%  era    whip    GB/FB%  K/9    save% Bard         .182    3.33  .959     1.12        9.1      17 [25% career] Melancon .667    2.78  1.224   1.39         8        80 [76% career] Looking at the numbers tells you one thing. While Bard is more likely to strike someone out. Melancon is much more likely to win the game or get the save. I know people will say Melancon pitched in Houston & Bailey in Oakland. But biggest upside to these moves is both players are 26 yrs of age and both combined will cost us about 1/3 of what Phillies will pay Paps. I love Paps and what he did for RS, but under the circumstances Ben C should be applauded. Now lets hope they stay healthy which always seems to be a problem for RS players.        
    Posted by garyhow[/QUOTE]

    Great post gary.

    1) I'm not a pessimist. When I do my annual projections each spring, I am usually accused of being to optimistic.  Your point is well taken (even the 2012 Bard and Paps might not duplicate the Bard/Paps of 2011). 

    2) I do think it is overly optimistic to think that the 2012 Bailey, Melancon, and Aceves will do better or equal to the 2011 Paps, Bard and Aceves. Yes, they might, but 2011 was a super year for those 3.
    Here are some numbers to ponder:
    2011 Late & Close (opponent's against)
    (One ahead, tied or tying run on deck in 7th inning or later.)
      Paps  .200/.235/.269/.504 (2010: .618 OPS)
      Bard  .174/.265/.292/.557 (2010: 459 OPS)
      Acev .181/.331/.358/.639 (Oki '10: .904 OPS)

      Bailey (with OAK: weaker opps and larger parks in AL West)
                 .204/.272/.301/.573 (2010: .649 OPS)
                 Very good numbers. I hope they translate to the AL East.
      Melancon (with the Astros vs mostly NL teams)
                 .213/.293/.320./.613 (2010: .676 OPS in just 46 PAs)
                 Very good, but only 2/3rds of PAs in '11 were Late&Close. 
    Very encouraging numbers. There's lots to be hopeful about here.

    3) I do think it is overly optimistic to expect our top 3 rotation guys to all be healthy and in top form for most or all of 2012. The top 3 have never put it all together in one season. Hopefully 2012 is it, but expecting it or planning on it, is being short-sighted.

    4) I think only one of Bard/Aceves will be in the rotation at the same time. I hope we don't try them both, but it could happen. I do not see either of them going deep into games. They are basically replacing Lackey and Wake, who both went comparatively deep in 2011 (Wake placed 3rd in IP/GS & Lackey 5th out of our 9 starters used.) If they both are in the rotation, who will take Aceves' role as the premiere middleman? We may need two.

    I am very happy with Ben so far. There's no way I'd have paid Paps what he got (or more). The deals for Bailey and Melancon did not create any new weaknesses and should help us a lot for more than just 2012.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from OnDeckCircle. Show OnDeckCircle's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    The Sox have to hope that the back of Buchholz is 100% healed.
    If he's expected to be the No. 3 starter, he'll be counted on to pitch more than twice the amount as he did in 2011 when he pitched 82.2 innings in 14 starts.   
    If Valentine is cautious with him and only lets him pitch 5-6 innings, it taxes the bullpen.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    IP / GS  (Not here in 2012 are in RED) Team: 5.80
    Beck   6.43
    Lest    6.18
    Wake  5.97
    Buch   5.90
    Lack    5.71
    Acev   5.25
    Dice    5.19
    Miller  4.86
    Bed     4.75
    Weil    4.33

    We could use more IP/GS from Beckett and Lester. Wake did better than the team average and Lackey was about at the average. Replacing Wake and Lackey with Bard and Aceves will probably tax the pen even more... and the pen might no longer have Paps, Bard and Aceves. 

    My guess is we may see this:
    Beckett  6.66 (+.23)
    Lester    6.33  (+.05)
    Buch       6.33  (+.43, more if you figure in Dice & Bedard)
    Bard        5.33  (-.38 from Lackey)
    Aceves   5.66  (-.31 from Wake, better if you figure in Miller/Weiland)

    Maybe overall, we can break even, but I doubt we do better in this area.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    We need at least one more quality pitcher. RF is an aferthought.

    What a mindless pile of drivel. Every team needs "at least one more quality pitcher". The Red Sox are obligated to pay around 50 million for the current starting staff. I'd say instead of pipe dreaming about "we need one more quality starting pitcher that I won't name or provide detials on offer amount", getting the current beer drinking and fat man Union brigade to come to camp fit and ready for an entire season is the way to approach it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    This, from a poster who advocates offering Tim Wastefield 1 to 2 million dollars for 2012. You claim "one more quality pitcher is needed to be a contender". Unless you contend Wastefield is a solid pitcher, you are advocating wasting up to 2 million dollars on an old bum who will not be part of a contender.

    If the Red Sox obtained a true young superstar RH slugger, they are strong contenders, immediately.

    And what does it say about a former GM, that a near 200 million a year payroll needs "one more quality starting pitcher" just to be a contender!!!!!!!!!!

    GTF out of the kitchen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    Moon, your points are well taken. Agree one of biggest problems finding guys for back of rotation is finding guys who will give innings CONSISTENTLY. RS need a guy who will go out there and give team 6-7 innings every time out for most part, guys who give one good start and then 1 bad and 1 mediocre. Those guys kill a bullpen. Thats what you had to love about Wake, while he might pitch to a 4-5 era he would give 200 innings and get to 7th time and time again. We both agree P.Maholm might be a good option for no.5 spot. Good to see K.Rosenthal report RS have interest along w/ a couple other teams. But have to believe he would love to pitch for a winner after pitching for all those terrible Buc's teams. But will come down to $.
    As for Melancon/Bailey combination that I like most is their age. Asking 30+ pitchers to repeat a good season alot riskier than 26 yr olds who may even put up a better season. While pitching in Fenway alot different than Houston and Oakland. At least Bailey is from Northeast and Melancon came up thru Yankee system so both should know what to expect. Agree that both Bard & Aceves won't be in rotation. Aceves to valuable to pen w/ versatility and have to think Bard w/ his stuff could become top starter.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]Moon, your points are well taken. Agree one of biggest problems finding guys for back of rotation is finding guys who will give innings CONSISTENTLY. RS need a guy who will go out there and give team 6-7 innings every time out for most part, guys who give one good start and then 1 bad and 1 mediocre. Those guys kill a bullpen. Thats what you had to love about Wake, while he might pitch to a 4-5 era he would give 200 innings and get to 7th time and time again. We both agree P.Maholm might be a good option for no.5 spot. Good to see K.Rosenthal report RS have interest along w/ a couple other teams. But have to believe he would love to pitch for a winner after pitching for all those terrible Buc's teams. But will come down to $. As for Melancon/Bailey combination that I like most is their age. Asking 30+ pitchers to repeat a good season alot riskier than 26 yr olds who may even put up a better season. While pitching in Fenway alot different than Houston and Oakland. At least Bailey is from Northeast and Melancon came up thru Yankee system so both should know what to expect. Agree that both Bard & Aceves won't be in rotation. Aceves to valuable to pen w/ versatility and have to think Bard w/ his stuff could become top starter.
    Posted by garyhow[/QUOTE]

    I love the Bailey/Melancon deals... their ages, years of team control, and low cost. If Aceves or Bard stay in the pen, I'm happy with the pen. A healthy Doubront can help a lot. Morales could do well, and Albers, Atchison, Bowden, and Tazawa should produce 1-2 that will fill essential roles. The key, to me, is to find that one starter who will eat innings and keep us in games late. I don't see Silva, Miller, or Doubront as that guy right now.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff

    In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff : I love the Bailey/Melancon deals... their ages, years of team control, and low cost. If Aceves or Bard stay in the pen, I'm happy with the pen. A healthy Doubront can help a lot. Morales could do well, and Albers, Atchison, Bowden, and Tazawa should produce 1-2 that will fill essential roles. The key, to me, is to find that one starter who will eat innings and keep us in games late. I don't see Silva, Miller, or Doubront as that guy right now.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    It's time for some of RS young arms to step up this year. Have my doubts about Doubront, how a kid who pitched well out of bullpen @ end of 010 shows up in terrible shape for 011 ST amazes me. The guy I'm most hopeful for is Tazawa, He's a yr removed from TJ surgery started very poorly but finished pretty well. He was a guy making and winning a start for RS vs Yanks in 09 and seemed on verge of becoming fulltime member of staff til injury. Not sure he's ready for starters role but maybe take Wakes long relief/spot starter. See Bowden making team in bullpen [out of options] have to guess Jenks will once again be on DL to start next year. Miller is a guy who also needs to take next step. As stupid as it sounds to me he needs to add some bulk. He seems to tire easily and problems repeating his delivery. At 6-7 he should be an imposing figure on mound. But seems to be anything but, w/ his size 4-5 inning guy is not what you would expect. Atchinson good insurance in minors to start. Hopefully these young RS pitchers see same things we see as fans = Plenty of opportunity and work their butts off this offseason.
     
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