Re: Choices with the Sox Pitching Staff
posted at 1/9/2012 8:01 PM EST
"It's the first time we got 280+ IP from those two, and the first time we got sub 3.50 ERAs from the two."
Moon - FWIW, in 2009 Beckett and Lester combined for 415 IP at an ERA of about 3.6. Lester has started at least 30 games each season and Beckett hasaveraged 181 IP over the last 8 seasons (28.5 GS). I don't think it's that optimistic to project ~85GS for our top 3.
I meant to say 380+ IP (190+190 like 2011) and sub 3.50 ERAs in the same season... my bad. You are right; they did pitch 415 IP in 2009, and Beckett's 3.86 ERA wasn't bad.
I understand your overall point and don't think it's out in left field, but I do think your take is somewhat pessimistic.
I'm usually accused of being too optimistic. I certainly think the big 3 can all have full & great seasons in 2012, but to count on it is being overly optimistic, in my opinion.
IP '11 '10 '09 '08 '07 '06
Lest 192-208-203-210- 63- 81
Buch 83-174- 92- 76- 23- n/a
Beck 2.89 5.78 3.86 4.03 3.27 5.01
Lest 3.47 3.25 3.41 3.21 4.57 4.76
Buch 3.48 2.33 4.21 6.75 1.59 n/a
All teams assume their top starters will be healthy, but it was interesting to see the Cards pull it off without Wainwright. It is possible, but you better have a deep staff or be willing to pick up a key guy at the deadline.
I look back at last spring and remember almost everyone saying we had a deep starter staff. I agreed at the time, and it's hard for any team to plan on 2 rotation guys going down (Dice-K & Buch), another pitching hurt probably all year (Lackey), and 2 other guys missing a few key games in September (Beck & Bedard). Then there was their 8/9 guy hurt and not able to start even one game and Tazawa injured from the season before. Here was our depth chart to the best of my recollection:
7) (Aceves from pen)
(Picked up Bedard at the deadline)
2012: (assuming Bard and Aceves both start, which I am skeptical about)
1) Beckett (less of a question than spring'11)
2) Lester (expecting about the same as 2011)
3) Buchholtz (more of a question than spring 2011)
4) Bard (huge question mark, but has solid stuff- see Dice-K))
5) Aceves (huge question mark as a season-long starter-see Dice-K)
6) Dice-K (I feel will take Bard or Aceves' place in June/July)
7) Doubront (was #8 in 2011)
8) Miller (was #9 in 2011)
9) Cook (a gamble)
10) Silva (a gamble)
11 A. Wilson (maybe a better bet than Weiland was, and it's hard to stay objective in hindsight)