Preserved for future fib-catching....
Re: What would you do this offseason?
posted at 9/25/2013 2:32 PM EDT
Free Agents selling Manic Labor promises:
Budget market base with intent to retain up to limited years that could be below market:
Salty- Offer him 2 years @ base 10 with maximum CBA allowed incentives and a team option 3rd year with a 2M buyout and a player opt out. Be prepared to match any market offers guaranteeing up to 3 years and 30M. Do not budget anything more than that to retain Salty
Free Agents to stay away from and QO/draft compensation, only if market is such that they will turn it down
Ellsbury - QO and tell Red Sox fans a bobble head statue with a DL and .779 jersey is being considered (This guy ends up with a broken foot but he and his agent immediately say he'll be back before the season is over and play on the broken foot, a perfect ending to describe the kind of constitution and character this career .789 OPS part-time player is. What a great day for the Red Sox on the team leadership and value and fit front. His market value will end up some where between 75M and 100M guaranteed, and he can thank another prima donna jitterbug bust in Carl Crawbust for the fact Jake aint gettin' any 152M. The Red Sox can budget half that amount on the OF and budget it elsewhere over the next 4 or 5 years)
Napoli - QO and management and ownership should take out a Boston Globe and online ad that thanks him for being one of the better FA values and fits in recent years. But they need to move on and stay away from 2 and 3 year 30 to 4OM guaranteed deals for this career part-timer who has just finished one of his best work record season in his career. Don't pay for it, make the QO and move on.
S. Drew - middle infielder FA marekt for 2014 isn't a buyer's or labor seller's market. It is likely that the 32 year old 10 million dollar bad wheel and poor range and .750 to .775 OPS part-timer absurdly expensive version of Jed Lowrie middle infielder will get a 2 year guaranteed deal of 20 to 25M that he'll take. But unless Red Sox management is nearly certain that's the case and Drew will turn down a QO, do not make this guy a QO. He wasn't needed for 2013 in the first place, and he's certainly not needed for 2014 and beyond.
Free Agents to budget for and Target:
OF: 1. Choo Offer 3 years and 45M and budget up to 52M. Choo is a far superior fit over Ellsbury, with a career OBP of .389 and a caeer .855 OPS with a career .934 OPS v. RP and a 2013 OPS v RP over 1.000. 2013 OPS is .891. Steals about 20 bases a season. A year older than Ellsbury which equates to better value. Ellsbury has a higher NL value and Choo has a higher AL value. With Victorino, Choo is a much better fit than Pence
2. Pence If Choo's market is higher than value based budget, offer Pence 3 years and 40M and budget up to 47M
2014 OF depth chart:
LF Choo or Pence or Nava and/or Gomes
CF Victorino and/or Bradley
RF Choo or Pence or Victorino or Nava
IF: 1. Morales Offer 3 years and 40M
2. Youk Offer 1 year at market which is likely going to be 1 to 2M max
2014 IF depth chart:
1B: Morales or Youk/Nava
2B: Pedroia/Holt (UIFer)
3B: Middlebrooks/Holt (Cechhini call-up)
2014 Rotation Depth Chart:
Dempster (may as well use him as he's a write off)
Shuttles: Morales & Tazawa
Winter Trades: Peavy goes to the highest bidder with farm scrap due for .6 million Villareal, throw him in with Aceves. This bad trade prima donna Peavy hasn't pitched more than 150 innings in a season but one time since 2008!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Huge 4.0 plus ERA AL bust for the White Sox. At age 33, he will still have a lot of NL allure. something Dumpster won't have beyond the minor league level. Peavy's value is terrible because of both lack of high quality and a problem showing up for work (You can have too much overpriced and low innings and overpriced quality pitching, see Jake Prima Donna Peavy)
Ross this was a 2 year deal for a 1 year market old veteran, see Gomes. With Lavarnway and Swihart et al and Salty almost surely retained from the offer budge, supra, Ross's 3.1 million 2nd year needs to written down or off to the highest bidder who will ask for the least amount of cash and send a 35 year old career minor leaguer to make Cherry's GM incompetence look better to those who don't pay attention
Carp sell high to the highest bidder on this part-timer fluke season, and give his role exclusively to Nava
Players to be retained through Option pick-ups and Arbitration process:
Uehara - (Most important and best value and fit FA contract offer in years, too bad this value and fit is nearly erased by virtue of Hammerhand's 7M)
Britton, De La Rossa, Doubrant, Morales, Tazawa, Webster (caveat, I know Webster), Workman, Wright, Lavarnway, Bogaerts, Holt, Middlebrooks , Bradley,Nava, Kalish, Miller, Wilson, Beato, Butler, Hassan, Vazquez
Gone under their own weight non-tender and expiring contracts/options declined:
Gagne, I mean Joel Hammeredhand (Seriously, how idiotic was this move 7M total loss)
Thornton <burst of laughter> (Seriously, how unneeded and useless whas this value bust)
Bailey (What was this about??????????)
2014 Payroll coming off of about 54M to Peavy, Ellsbury, Drew, Napoli, which doesn't include the payroll coming off the pen from Hammerhand and Bailey. Some of the pen budget used in 2014 will need to be used for pen changes and arbitration increases.
Morales and Pence or Choo is about 30M back on the books for 2014, and Salty is another 7M raise costs, so that's about 37M back on the books but putting more reserve for 2014 and years to come to retain flexibility on value and fit dynamics of labor
They could go cheap with Youk platooning and increased platooning in the OF, but I don't think that would be wise roster construction. They better get either Choo or Pence and pick-up Morales who can split more time at DH when Ortiz leaves at the end of next season. Cechhini is the clear 3B value and fit option after 2013, with Middlebrooks a good value and fit to move to 1B for 2015 and have Morales move to mostly DH.
Let's not make FA mistakes like Hammerhand and Drew and Dumpster, and the grand daddy of incompetence Crawbust, just to name a few. Let's not throw a ton of money on Ellsbury in his early to mid 30's, and Napoli and heaven forbid another season of the 10M Jed Lowrielike SS who wasn't ever needed.