Congratulations Salty!!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    I said to budget 22M for the 2 years, which excludes the option for 2M and the incentives allowed by CBA.



    More lies. You said budget $20M/2 with 2M option. It's right there just a few inches above your last lie.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Personally, offering Salty less than 4 years would be a crime. To be able to get a catcher for the ages of 28-32 (probably the best years for a catcher) the calibur of Salty doesnt come around often in MLB.

    I laugh at the people who call him a butcher, then call for Lavarnway who actually IS a butcher. Or Ruiz whos closer to 40 than 30. Or McCann who will def be grossly overpaid and both are very comparable defensively, and Salty has gained some ground offensively as well. Nobody here knows what Swihart or Vasquez will do. They may both hit a wall and never become starting MLB catchers. They may not. But we already have a very good offensive catcher, who has improved his D greatly, knows our staff, has learned the players around the league very well and calls a great game, right now. I would have NO ISSUE with 4/35-40 with an option for a 5th year. He will get offers similar to this if he hits FA.



    +1

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    On Salty and CERA...

     




    Solidly means 3.86 vs.3.12. Thats pretty extreme, not just solid. It also means 13-7 head to head comparing all the pitchers. Thats a pretty solid difference. Its 6-4 in your top 10. Solid.

    I totally agree that there are differences in who catches who. And that it has probably hurt Salty not only this year but the last 3 years. However, do I think those differences make up a 0.74 ERA difference this year? No.  Now if you can come up with a formula to calculate those differences, more power to you. Until then head to head is the best and easiest way to seperate those differences. And head to head its clear advantage Ross.

    Also, understand how huge the differences in CERA has been the last 3 years. If it was .2 or .3 over the last 3 years then your point on catching one pitcher more then others would be totally on point. I probably would not even mention these numbers if it was at those levels. But we are talking extreme differences in total CERA......

    2011
    Salty-----4.63
    Varitek---3.56

    2012
    Salty----4.84
    Shoppach-3.77

    2013
    Salty----3.86
    Ross-----3.12

    And head to head.....

    2011
    Varitek--13
    Salty----9

    2012
    Shoppach--13
    Salty----5

    2013
    Ross-----13
    Salty----7

    Total is 39--21 pitcher to pitcher. Thats pretty solid. A CERA advantage of around 0.95 over a 3 year period. Incredibly high difference. Just understand, just a 0.2 difference would equal around 3 wins and 6 games over .500 for a single season.

    Has Salty improved a bit? Probably. Even I thought he looked somewhat better the second half of the season. Still, I don't see how people can look at these numbers and at least not wonder whether its smart to commit long term to this player. Nearly 300 extra runs given up over the last 3 years. 300! 

     

     

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    Solidly means 3.86 vs.3.12. Thats pretty extreme, not just solid. It also means 13-7 head to head comparing all the pitchers. Thats a pretty solid difference. Its 6-4 in your top 10. Solid.

    6-4 is not solid if one of the 6 was by 0.02 and a tiny sample size.

    3.86 to 3.12 is not solid when the guy with the 3.12 pitched over 44% of his inning with our Buch and Lester as compared to just over 20% by Salty. Salty caught only 38% of his innings with our top 4 starters: Ross caught 55% vs the same. Do the math. Adjust either Salty's down or Ross' up by evening out the percent with our better pitchers, and my guess is the disparity will all but vanish.

     

     

    I totally agree that there are differences in who catches who. And that it has probably hurt Salty not only this year but the last 3 years. However, do I think those differences make up a 0.74 ERA difference this year? No.  Now if you can come up with a formula to calculate those differences, more power to you. Until then head to head is the best and easiest way to seperate those differences. And head to head its clear advantage Ross.

    Again, only clear to you.

    (Red indicates a differential of 0.25 or more on ERA or .025 in OPS Against)

                                   w/ Salty                  w/ Ross                 w/ Lava

    Lester     (143)  3.58/ .671      (70) 4.11/ .770            n/a

    Lackey   (147)  3.06/ .687     (11) 2.38/ .715          (31) 5.81/ .774

    Demp    (103)  4.62/ .750      (48) 3.00/ .711          (19)  8.38/ .985 

    Doub     (135)  3.86/ .708      (9)  8.31/ .871            (17)  3.18/ 711

    Buch       (67)  1.75/.558        (43) 1.73/ .529                   n/a

    Peavy     (33)  4.64/ .743       (20) 2.75/ .573          (12)  4.50/ .599

    The 6 starters:  Ross is significantly better than Salty with 3 of 6 starters, but one of them (Lackey) has a small sample size of just 11 IP. Salty is significantly better with 2 of 6 starters. With OPS Against, Salty is significantly better than Ross with 3 out of the 6 starters, and Ross with3 of 6, but 2 of which both are small sample sizes of 11 and 20 IP.

    CERA:

    The ones Salty leads with are 0.53 and 4.45 (in all fairness, the large one is a 9 IP sample size for Ross)

    The ones Ross leads with are 0.68, 1.62, and 1.89

    OPS:

    The ones Salty leads: .099, .028, and .168.

    The ones Ross leads: .039, .029, and .170

    Also, to me, the differentials between the top 4 innings guys carry more weight.

    Sorry, I don't see any solid edge here.

     

    Top Four Relievers:

                         w/ Salty                   w/ Ross                   w/ Lava 

    Uehara  (54)  1.01/ .379       (14)  1.32/ .432        (6) 1.50/ 4.50

    Tazawa (49)  2.55/ .716       (15)  4.11/ .763        (4) 7.36/ .954

    Breslow (43) 2.32/ .677        (7)  0.00/ .390         (9) 0.96/ .590

    Workm (18) 5.00/ .728        (4) 4.15/ .635         (19) 5.12/ .800

    On the surface, it looks like a clean split: 2-2, but the two that Ross leads in are tiny sample sizes, such is the dilema with comparing CERA with the pen.

     

    If you look at the top 8 Sox pitchers by innings pitched, the record is like this:

    Significant disparity:

    CERA:  Salty +4 and Ross +3 (1 very close).

     

    OPS:  Salty +5 and Ross +3 .

     

    Also, understand how huge the differences in CERA has been the last 3 years. If it was .2 or .3 over the last 3 years then your point on catching one pitcher more then others would be totally on point. I probably would not even mention these numbers if it was at those levels. But we are talking extreme differences in total CERA......

    Look, I was for trading Salty after 2010, based largely on his CERA. At the start of 2011, I was not happy, but by the end of April, Salty began to turn it around. Perhaps, it was just familiarity. Perhpas it was a combination of several things, but the fact is, he improved greatly. Pitcher by pitcher or as compared to our other catcher. Although I totally disagrzee with any use of overall CERA, unless the percentages with each pitcher are near equal, let's look at the progression ... (See red disparity)

    (Note: VTek hardly ever caught Wake in 2010 as Tito played the catcher caddy game, and Bobby V created huge disparities in inning's percent with each catcher as well. John has changed that a bit, but with the injury to Ross, some large disparities in innings were realized.)

    2011
    Salty-----4.63
    Varitek---3.56  (1.07)

    2012
    Salty----4.84
    Shoppach-3.77 (1.07, but significantly closer after 4/25/12)

    2013
    Salty----3.86
    Ross-----3.12 (0.74)

    And head to head.....

    2011
    Varitek--13
    Salty----9

    Really? How large were some of these 22 pitcher's sample sizes. but regardless, I am on board with Salty's CERA futility in 2010. No argument here.

     

    2012
    Shoppach--13
    Salty----5

    I'm not doubting your veracity here, but I recall it being much closer. I lost all my data from back then, but I do remember that Salty closed the gap after April 24th. Salty got rocked in early April.

    2013
    Ross-----13
    Salty----7

    Total is 39--21 pitcher to pitcher. Thats pretty solid. A CERA advantage of around 0.95 over a 3 year period. Incredibly high difference. Just understand, just a 0.2 difference would equal around 3 wins and 6 games over .500 for a single season.

    The 3 year total is a viable sample size, but it really doesn't measure Salty's improvement.

    Has Salty improved a bit? Probably.

    Probably? Your own numbers show a clear improvement, and if you look at each pitcher year by year with salty, when the sample sizes are significant, you will see an obvious improvement:

    CERA & OPS against with Salty from 2011 to 2013:

                          2011                                                   2102                                   2013

    Lester:   3.77/ .717 (VTek 2.48/ .577) 5.62/ .869 (Shopp 3.70/ .638)  3.58/ . 671

    Lackey:  6.31/ .874 (VTek 6.82/ .769)             n/a                                   3.06/  .687

    Doubr:  5.19 .828  (VTek 10.80/.875)   4.95/ .777 (Shopp 4.18/.769)  3.86/  .708

    Buchh:  3.52/ .662 (VTek  3.38/ .841)   6.30/ .935 (Shopp 3.23/ .622) 1.75/  .558

    Taza:   6.75/ 1.000 (Lava  5.40/ .946)  1.45/ .604(Shopp 0.00/1.100)   2.55/ .716

     

    Bres:     n/a                                               3.95/.670  (Shopp  0.00/ 5.00)   2.32/ .677

     

    Are you lessening the importance of the above numbers? How about looking at the 3 starters that have been here since 2010?

                     wVTek  w Shopp  w Ross       ERA + or -             (Net)         with Salty   (Net)

    Lester     2.48         3.70       4.11             +1.22    +0.41   (+1.63)      +1.85  -2.04    (-0.19)

    Lackey   6.82          n/a         2.38               n/a       -4.44   (-4.44)           n/a   -3.25    (-3.25)

    Doub      5.19          4.18       8.31             -1.01     +4.13    (+3.12)      -0.24   -1.09   (-1.33)  

     

     

    Even I thought he looked somewhat better the second half of the season. Still, I don't see how people can look at these numbers and at least not wonder whether its smart to commit long term to this player. Nearly 300 extra runs given up over the last 3 years. 300! 

    Try going back and looking at VTek's comparative CERA at ages 27-29 (with Hatteberg and Hillenbrand- two catchers never known for defense). VTek did not begin to master the CERA domain until after age 30 to 31.

    I'm not saying Salty will continue to improve until he reaches VTek's legendary status, but I'd say a continued improvement over the last 5 months of 2012 and 6 months of 2013 is a good sign that he might keep getting better as he reaches catcher defensive prime, which may be some where between 32-36, not the typical 27-31 of other positional players.

     

    If we don't keep Salty, finding a decent bridge catcher will not be easy. That was one reason, I suggested we extend Salty last winter, while his cost would have been lower. I realize a $48M/4 or $38M/3 is an overpay, but such is the way of FAs at high need positions.

    McCann will be way too costly and a lost draft pick.

    Ruiz is old and in decline, but may be a decent 1 year bridge signing, if he'll take it. I really like Vazquez, Swihart, and have heard wonders about Denny, but they are likely at least a year away. To me, going with Lava and Ross would be a huge step back on offense, and CERA related areas. Have you seen Lava's CERA numbers? Replace Salty's nubers with Lava's and work out how many runs and losses that would lead to.

    This winter, Salty holds all the cards.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Solidly means 3.86 vs.3.12. Thats pretty extreme, not just solid. It also means 13-7 head to head comparing all the pitchers. Thats a pretty solid difference. Its 6-4 in your top 10. Solid.

    6-4 is not solid if one of the 6 was by 0.02 and a tiny sample size.

    3.86 to 3.12 is not solid when the guy with the 3.12 pitched over 44% of his inning with our Buch and Lester as compared to just over 20% by Salty. Salty caught only 38% of his innings with our top 4 starters: Ross caught 55% vs the same. Do the math. Adjust either Salty's down or Ross' up by evening out the percent with our better pitchers, and my guess is the disparity will all but vanish.

     

     

    I totally agree that there are differences in who catches who. And that it has probably hurt Salty not only this year but the last 3 years. However, do I think those differences make up a 0.74 ERA difference this year? No.  Now if you can come up with a formula to calculate those differences, more power to you. Until then head to head is the best and easiest way to seperate those differences. And head to head its clear advantage Ross.

    Again, only clear to you.

    (Red indicates a differential of 0.25 or more on ERA or .025 in OPS Against)

                                   w/ Salty                  w/ Ross                 w/ Lava

    Lester     (143)  3.58/ .671      (70) 4.11/ .770            n/a

    Lackey   (147)  3.06/ .687     (11) 2.38/ .715          (31) 5.81/ .774

    Demp    (103)  4.62/ .750      (48) 3.00/ .711          (19)  8.38/ .985 

    Doub     (135)  3.86/ .708      (9)  8.31/ .871            (17)  3.18/ 711

    Buch       (67)  1.75/.558        (43) 1.73/ .529                   n/a

    Peavy     (33)  4.64/ .743       (20) 2.75/ .573          (12)  4.50/ .599

    The 6 starters:  Ross is significantly better than Salty with 3 of 6 starters, but one of them (Lackey) has a small sample size of just 11 IP. Salty is significantly better with 2 of 6 starters. With OPS Against, Salty is significantly better than Ross with 3 out of the 6 starters, and Ross with3 of 6, but 2 of which both are small sample sizes of 11 and 20 IP.

    CERA:

    The ones Salty leads with are 0.53 and 4.45 (in all fairness, the large one is a 9 IP sample size for Ross)

    The ones Ross leads with are 0.68, 1.62, and 1.89

    OPS:

    The ones Salty leads: .099, .028, and .168.

    The ones Ross leads: .039, .029, and .170

    Also, to me, the differentials between the top 4 innings guys carry more weight.

    Sorry, I don't see any solid edge here.

     

    Top Four Relievers:

                         w/ Salty                   w/ Ross                   w/ Lava 

    Uehara  (54)  1.01/ .379       (14)  1.32/ .432        (6) 1.50/ 4.50

    Tazawa (49)  2.55/ .716       (15)  4.11/ .763        (4) 7.36/ .954

    Breslow (43) 2.32/ .677        (7)  0.00/ .390         (9) 0.96/ .590

    Workm (18) 5.00/ .728        (4) 4.15/ .635         (19) 5.12/ .800

    On the surface, it looks like a clean split: 2-2, but the two that Ross leads in are tiny sample sizes, such is the dilema with comparing CERA with the pen.

     

    If you look at the top 8 Sox pitchers by innings pitched, the record is like this:

    Significant disparity:

    CERA:  Salty +4 and Ross +3 (1 very close).

     

    OPS:  Salty +5 and Ross +3 .

     

    Also, understand how huge the differences in CERA has been the last 3 years. If it was .2 or .3 over the last 3 years then your point on catching one pitcher more then others would be totally on point. I probably would not even mention these numbers if it was at those levels. But we are talking extreme differences in total CERA......

    Look, I was for trading Salty after 2010, based largely on his CERA. At the start of 2011, I was not happy, but by the end of April, Salty began to turn it around. Perhaps, it was just familiarity. Perhpas it was a combination of several things, but the fact is, he improved greatly. Pitcher by pitcher or as compared to our other catcher. Although I totally disagrzee with any use of overall CERA, unless the percentages with each pitcher are near equal, let's look at the progression ... (See red disparity)

    (Note: VTek hardly ever caught Wake in 2010 as Tito played the catcher caddy game, and Bobby V created huge disparities in inning's percent with each catcher as well. John has changed that a bit, but with the injury to Ross, some large disparities in innings were realized.)

    2011
    Salty-----4.63
    Varitek---3.56  (1.07)

    2012
    Salty----4.84
    Shoppach-3.77 (1.07, but significantly closer after 4/25/12)

    2013
    Salty----3.86
    Ross-----3.12 (0.74)

    And head to head.....

    2011
    Varitek--13
    Salty----9

    Really? How large were some of these 22 pitcher's sample sizes. but regardless, I am on board with Salty's CERA futility in 2010. No argument here.

     

    2012
    Shoppach--13
    Salty----5

    I'm not doubting your veracity here, but I recall it being much closer. I lost all my data from back then, but I do remember that Salty closed the gap after April 24th. Salty got rocked in early April.

    2013
    Ross-----13
    Salty----7

    Total is 39--21 pitcher to pitcher. Thats pretty solid. A CERA advantage of around 0.95 over a 3 year period. Incredibly high difference. Just understand, just a 0.2 difference would equal around 3 wins and 6 games over .500 for a single season.

    The 3 year total is a viable sample size, but it really doesn't measure Salty's improvement.

    Has Salty improved a bit? Probably.

    Probably? Your own numbers show a clear improvement, and if you look at each pitcher year by year with salty, when the sample sizes are significant, you will see an obvious improvement:

    CERA & OPS against with Salty from 2011 to 2013:

                          2011                                                   2102                                   2013

    Lester:   3.77/ .717 (VTek 2.48/ .577) 5.62/ .869 (Shopp 3.70/ .638)  3.58/ . 671

    Lackey:  6.31/ .874 (VTek 6.82/ .769)             n/a                                   3.06/  .687

    Doubr:  5.19 .828  (VTek 10.80/.875)   4.95/ .777 (Shopp 4.18/.769)  3.86/  .708

    Buchh:  3.52/ .662 (VTek  3.38/ .841)   6.30/ .935 (Shopp 3.23/ .622) 1.75/  .558

    Taza:   6.75/ 1.000 (Lava  5.40/ .946)  1.45/ .604(Shopp 0.00/1.100)   2.55/ .716

     

    Bres:     n/a                                               3.95/.670  (Shopp  0.00/ 5.00)   2.32/ .677

     

    Are you lessening the importance of the above numbers? How about looking at the 3 starters that have been here since 2010?

                     wVTek  w Shopp  w Ross       ERA + or -             (Net)         with Salty   (Net)

    Lester     2.48         3.70       4.11             +1.22    +0.41   (+1.63)      +1.85  -2.04    (-0.19)

    Lackey   6.82          n/a         2.38               n/a       -4.44   (-4.44)           n/a   -3.25    (-3.25)

    Doub      5.19          4.18       8.31             -1.01     +4.13    (+3.12)      -0.24   -1.09   (-1.33)  

     

     

    Even I thought he looked somewhat better the second half of the season. Still, I don't see how people can look at these numbers and at least not wonder whether its smart to commit long term to this player. Nearly 300 extra runs given up over the last 3 years. 300! 

    Try going back and looking at VTek's comparative CERA at ages 27-29 (with Hatteberg and Hillenbrand- two catchers never known for defense). VTek did not begin to master the CERA domain until after age 30 to 31.

    I'm not saying Salty will continue to improve until he reaches VTek's legendary status, but I'd say a continued improvement over the last 5 months of 2012 and 6 months of 2013 is a good sign that he might keep getting better as he reaches catcher defensive prime, which may be some where between 32-36, not the typical 27-31 of other positional players.

     

    If we don't keep Salty, finding a decent bridge catcher will not be easy. That was one reason, I suggested we extend Salty last winter, while his cost would have been lower. I realize a $48M/4 or $38M/3 is an overpay, but such is the way of FAs at high need positions.

    McCann will be way too costly and a lost draft pick.

    Ruiz is old and in decline, but may be a decent 1 year bridge signing, if he'll take it. I really like Vazquez, Swihart, and have heard wonders about Denny, but they are likely at least a year away. To me, going with Lava and Ross would be a huge step back on offense, and CERA related areas. Have you seen Lava's CERA numbers? Replace Salty's nubers with Lava's and work out how many runs and losses that would lead to.

    This winter, Salty holds all the cards.

     

    Sox4ever



    3.86 vs. 3.12 and 13-7 head to head and for the 4 highest inning pitchers for both catchers its 3-1 Ross. Nothing you have said has taken away from the view that Salty's CERA is still a problem this season.

    I have been coming closer and closer to being open to giving him one more season to prove these numbers coincidentally wrong and misleading next year. Its an option. The idea that Salty is irreplaceable and should be committed to long term is where I totally draw the line.

    As for Lava and his CERA's, that has been one of the reasons I have cooled on him. And his data isn't from a 300+ game sample either. Both players have extremely few positive defensive stats on their sides and the eye test has been bad for both aswell. But I like Ross and we will need just one other guy.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    Evening the 2013 CERA playing field:

    I'm not going to even up every last tiny sample size, but if assume Ross would maintain the same CERA over a larger or smaller sample size with each pitcher, you can adjust the Ross CERA to meet the same percentages of innings per pitcher as Salty.

    Ross had a 3.12 CERA overall in 2013. The top IP pitchers are below:

    Starters

                 Salty   Ross   +/-         CERA

    Buch   6.1      15.4     -9.3%      1.73  (Greatly hurt his CERA)  1.39 disparity

    Lack  14.1       4.1    +10%       2.38  (Significantly help his CERA)  0.74 disparity

    Lest   14.2     28.9    -14.7%     4.11 (Significantly help his CERA)  0.99 disparity

    Peav    3.3       7.6     -3.3%       2.75 (This would slightly hurt his CERA)

    Doub  13.7     4.0      +9.7%      8.31 (This would kill his CERA)   5.19 disparity!!!

    Demp 10.4    19.6    -9.2%       3.00 (This would slightly hurt his CERA)  

    Ueh     4.6    4.1        +0.5%       1.32 (Help by a tiny amount)

    Bres   4.2   2.4         +1.8%       0.00 (Help by a tiny bit)

    Taza  4.8   6.1          -1.3%       4.11  (Helpr by a tiny amount)

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    3.86 vs. 3.12 and 13-7 head to head and for the 4 highest inning pitchers for both catchers its 3-1 Ross. Nothing you have said has taken away from the view that Salty's CERA is still a problem this season. 

    The 4 highest IP guys are 2-2.

                                   w/ Salty                  w/ Ross                 

    Lester     (143)  3.58/ .671      (70) 4.11/ .770           Salty by 0.53

    Lackey   (147)  3.06/ .687      (11) 2.38/ .715            Ross by 0.66  

    Demp     (103)  4.62/ .750      (48) 3.00/ .711            Ross by  1.62

    Doub      (135)  3.86/ .708      (9)  8.31/ .871              Salty by 4.45

    A 3.86 CERA is not a problem when you play half your games in Fenway and face tougher offense than most MLb teams. Salty took about a full run off his CERA from 2012 to 2013. Ross improved on Shoppach's by about 0.6. I guess that means very little to some here.

     

     

    I have been coming closer and closer to being open to giving him one more season to prove these numbers coincidentally wrong and misleading next year. Its an option. The idea that Salty is irreplaceable and should be committed to long term is where I totally draw the line.

    It may come to having to commit longer term or lose him. That would leave us with very few 2014 catching options.

    As for Lava and his CERA's, that has been one of the reasons I have cooled on him. And his data isn't from a 300+ game sample either. Both players have extremely few positive defensive stats on their sides and the eye test has been bad for both aswell. But I like Ross and we will need just one other guy.

    I hope we don't end up finding out what that "other guy" will do. New to the team and system. I cringe to find out.

    I'd be fine offering Salty a QO of about $14M/1 to limit the risk, but I'm pretty sure his agent will tell him that this year is the year to go long and large.

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    The 4 highest IP guys are 2-2.

     

     

     

    It may come to having to commit longer term or lose him. That would leave us with very few 2014 catching options.

     

    I hope we don't end up finding out what that "other guy" will do. New to the team and system. I cringe to find out.

    I'd be fine offering Salty a QO of about $14M/1 to limit the risk, but I'm pretty sure his agent will tell him that this year is the year to go long and large.

     



    I mentioned the 4 highest innings for "both" catchers. Ross caught Lackey only 11 innings and Doubront only 9 innings. Those are small samples. Instead, I used Buchholtz where Ross caught 43 innings with him and Peavy where Ross caught 20 innings. These are pretty large samples and the numbers I think a bit more meaningful then 9 and 11 innings, which is what I thought you were trying to get to by ignoring the low end relievers and starters.

     

    If Salty refuses the QO, then great. We get a first rounder and find another catcher. The idea we are doomed without Salty I think is nuts. We will do just fine.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    I'm in agreement with moon about Salty.  And I was a big Salty critic in 2011 and 2012.  I think he has made huge strides.  He's 10th in WAR among major league catchers.

    The CERA differences this year are not that significant IMO.  Ross just didn't have enough innings for starters.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    The 4 highest IP guys are 2-2.

     

     

     

    It may come to having to commit longer term or lose him. That would leave us with very few 2014 catching options.

     

    I hope we don't end up finding out what that "other guy" will do. New to the team and system. I cringe to find out.

    I'd be fine offering Salty a QO of about $14M/1 to limit the risk, but I'm pretty sure his agent will tell him that this year is the year to go long and large.

     

     



    I mentioned the 4 highest innings for "both" catchers. Ross caught Lackey only 11 innings and Doubront only 9 innings. Those are small samples. Instead, I used Buchholtz where Ross caught 43 innings with him and Peavy where Ross caught 20 innings. These are pretty large samples and the numbers I think a bit more meaningful then 9 and 11 innings, which is what I thought you were trying to get to by ignoring the low end relievers and starters.

    20 IP is not a significant sample size and is barely any more significant than 9 or 11 IP.

     

     

    If Salty refuses the QO, then great. We get a first rounder and find another catcher. The idea we are doomed without Salty I think is nuts. We will do just fine.




    I never said we were "doomed" without Salty. That $14M could be spent to upgrade elsewhere, and the draft pick can help in the longterm.

    My point, which I have stated on other threads, is that the drop off from Salty to Lava is wider than the drop off from Napoli to Carp/Nava/Middy/Papi at 1B and perhaps the drop off from Ellsbury to JBJ/Victorino in CF and another $4M saved ($18M for Ellsbury vs $14M for Salty).

    Who would you want signed? Ruiz? Suzuki? Jose Molina? AJ Pierzynski?

    I certainly am not one to think the most important part of a catcher's skillset is offense, but here's what's out there...

    FA Catcher 2013 OPS

    1) Salty  .804

    2) McCann .796

    3) AJ P  .728

    4) Ruiz  .688

    5) Buck .648

    6) Suzuki .627

    7) J Molina .602

     

    under 250 PA

    Soto  .794

    B Pena .713

    Torrealba .580

    Blanco  .474

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    The 4 highest IP guys are 2-2.

     

     

     

    It may come to having to commit longer term or lose him. That would leave us with very few 2014 catching options.

     

    I hope we don't end up finding out what that "other guy" will do. New to the team and system. I cringe to find out.

    I'd be fine offering Salty a QO of about $14M/1 to limit the risk, but I'm pretty sure his agent will tell him that this year is the year to go long and large.

     

     

     



    I mentioned the 4 highest innings for "both" catchers. Ross caught Lackey only 11 innings and Doubront only 9 innings. Those are small samples. Instead, I used Buchholtz where Ross caught 43 innings with him and Peavy where Ross caught 20 innings. These are pretty large samples and the numbers I think a bit more meaningful then 9 and 11 innings, which is what I thought you were trying to get to by ignoring the low end relievers and starters.

     

    20 IP is not a significant sample size and is barely any more significant than 9 or 11 IP.

     

     

    If Salty refuses the QO, then great. We get a first rounder and find another catcher. The idea we are doomed without Salty I think is nuts. We will do just fine.

     




     

    I never said we were "doomed" without Salty. That $14M could be spent to upgrade elsewhere, and the draft pick can help in the longterm.

    My point, which I have stated on other threads, is that the drop off from Salty to Lava is wider than the drop off from Napoli to Carp/Nava/Middy/Papi at 1B and perhaps the drop off from Ellsbury to JBJ/Victorino in CF and another $4M saved ($18M for Ellsbury vs $14M for Salty).

    Who would you want signed? Ruiz? Suzuki? Jose Molina? AJ Pierzynski?

    I certainly am not one to think the most important part of a catcher's skillset is offense, but here's what's out there...

    FA Catcher 2013 OPS

    1) Salty  .804

    2) McCann .796

    3) AJ P  .728

    4) Ruiz  .688

    5) Buck .648

    6) Suzuki .627

    7) J Molina .602

     

    under 250 PA

    Soto  .794

    B Pena .713

    Torrealba .580

    Blanco  .474

     

     



    I am open to a few of those guys. And trades are also a possibility. But the most likely result if we offer Salty the QO and we refuse to make a long term offer is that he accepts the QO.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    I am open to a few of those guys. And trades are also a possibility. But the most likely result if we offer Salty the QO and we refuse to make a long term offer is that he accepts the QO. 

    My guess is, we start with a 2 or 3 year offer and feel Salty out. I do not think $33M/3 is a big risk, as he could be traded if a kid rises quickly. A two year deal at $26M/2 probably will not get him to stay, so maybe the fall back offer could end up being the QO at about $14M/1.

    I do not think he'd take it, so we get a draft pick, which I feel will be our 2nd one as Jacoby will walk as well. Maybe the Salty loss will not be catostophic, but losing Ellsbury and Salty might be hard to make-up elsewhere. There are no big FA difference makers.

    Sox4ever 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors analyzes the free agency of Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/free-agent-profile-jarrod-saltalamacchia.html

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors analyzes the free agency of Jarrod Saltalamacchia:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/free-agent-profile-jarrod-saltalamacchia.html




    Thanks Hill, pretty fair appraisal I thought.  Hoping we give a QO, that he gets a 4 year deal somewhere else and we get the draft pick.

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. This post has been removed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    You guys do realize that CERA is IMPOSSIBLE to compare 2 catchers unless they have almost the exact same IP with the same pitchers over a few years, right?

    With that said, CERA is basically only good to see if one catcher improves with a certain pitcher over a period of time.

    Salty's defense has improved a lot. This is not arguable. Hes not a top defensive catcher, but hes IS a slightly above average defensive catcher compared to all MLB catchers. I could care less that he has just under a 22% career CS. Put anyone behind the plate with Lack or Doubie for a season and let me know what his stats are. His is a top 10 catcher. Top in pitch framing and verty good at blocking balls in the dirt. You dont need stats to know this if you have a clue and have watched all his games over the last 3 years. It pretty obvious. His knowledge of the hitters in the league and just how comfortable and how much our pitchers love throwing to him is also something to take into consideration. That, and hes only 28yo.

    Once again, to not sign Salty to a 3-4 year deal would be a huge mistake. I say 4yr 35-40M.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    You guys do realize that CERA is IMPOSSIBLE to compare 2 catchers unless they have almost the exact same IP with the same pitchers over a few years, right?

    With that said, CERA is basically only good to see if one catcher improves with a certain pitcher over a period of time.

    Salty's defense has improved a lot. This is not arguable. Hes not a top defensive catcher, but hes IS a slightly above average defensive catcher compared to all MLB catchers. I could care less that he has just under a 22% career CS. Put anyone behind the plate with Lack or Doubie for a season and let me know what his stats are. His is a top 10 catcher. Top in pitch framing and verty good at blocking balls in the dirt. You dont need stats to know this if you have a clue and have watched all his games over the last 3 years. It pretty obvious. His knowledge of the hitters in the league and just how comfortable and how much our pitchers love throwing to him is also something to take into consideration. That, and hes only 28yo.

    Once again, to not sign Salty to a 3-4 year deal would be a huge mistake. I say 4yr 35-40M.



    I agree, and of all the stats I have posted recently, the one that sticks out the most is how most pitchers have improved with Salty from 2011 to 2013. Most have improved more with him than they have improved with the other catchers (or gotten worse by less).

    Yes, VTek, Shoppach and Ross are not the same catchers, but the point is still valid.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    I have yet to come across the term "CERA" on any site other than this one.



    Forget CERA. Do pitchers seem to be doing better or worse with Salty over the last 3 years? Does Salty look more comfortable with the staff?

    Do you have confidence in Lava behind the plate for significant innings in 2014?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    You guys do realize that CERA is IMPOSSIBLE to compare 2 catchers unless they have almost the exact same IP with the same pitchers over a few years, right?

    With that said, CERA is basically only good to see if one catcher improves with a certain pitcher over a period of time.

    Salty's defense has improved a lot. This is not arguable. Hes not a top defensive catcher, but hes IS a slightly above average defensive catcher compared to all MLB catchers. I could care less that he has just under a 22% career CS. Put anyone behind the plate with Lack or Doubie for a season and let me know what his stats are. His is a top 10 catcher. Top in pitch framing and verty good at blocking balls in the dirt. You dont need stats to know this if you have a clue and have watched all his games over the last 3 years. It pretty obvious. His knowledge of the hitters in the league and just how comfortable and how much our pitchers love throwing to him is also something to take into consideration. That, and hes only 28yo.

    Once again, to not sign Salty to a 3-4 year deal would be a huge mistake. I say 4yr 35-40M.

     



    I agree, and of all the stats I have posted recently, the one that sticks out the most is how most pitchers have improved with Salty from 2011 to 2013. Most have improved more with him than they have improved with the other catchers (or gotten worse by less).

     

    Yes, VTek, Shoppach and Ross are not the same catchers, but the point is still valid.




    Exactly Moon. Thats what Im looking at. Salty has improved with every pitcher.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    You guys do realize that CERA is IMPOSSIBLE to compare 2 catchers unless they have almost the exact same IP with the same pitchers over a few years, right?

    With that said, CERA is basically only good to see if one catcher improves with a certain pitcher over a period of time.

    Salty's defense has improved a lot. This is not arguable. Hes not a top defensive catcher, but hes IS a slightly above average defensive catcher compared to all MLB catchers. I could care less that he has just under a 22% career CS. Put anyone behind the plate with Lack or Doubie for a season and let me know what his stats are. His is a top 10 catcher. Top in pitch framing and verty good at blocking balls in the dirt. You dont need stats to know this if you have a clue and have watched all his games over the last 3 years. It pretty obvious. His knowledge of the hitters in the league and just how comfortable and how much our pitchers love throwing to him is also something to take into consideration. That, and hes only 28yo.

    Once again, to not sign Salty to a 3-4 year deal would be a huge mistake. I say 4yr 35-40M.

     

     



    I agree, and of all the stats I have posted recently, the one that sticks out the most is how most pitchers have improved with Salty from 2011 to 2013. Most have improved more with him than they have improved with the other catchers (or gotten worse by less).

     

     

    Yes, VTek, Shoppach and Ross are not the same catchers, but the point is still valid.

     




    Exactly Moon. Thats what Im looking at. Salty has improved with every pitcher.

     



    Well, there are guys like Aceves, but yes, almost every pitcher.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    You guys do realize that CERA is IMPOSSIBLE to compare 2 catchers unless they have almost the exact same IP with the same pitchers over a few years, right?

    With that said, CERA is basically only good to see if one catcher improves with a certain pitcher over a period of time.

    Salty's defense has improved a lot. This is not arguable. Hes not a top defensive catcher, but hes IS a slightly above average defensive catcher compared to all MLB catchers. I could care less that he has just under a 22% career CS. Put anyone behind the plate with Lack or Doubie for a season and let me know what his stats are. His is a top 10 catcher. Top in pitch framing and verty good at blocking balls in the dirt. You dont need stats to know this if you have a clue and have watched all his games over the last 3 years. It pretty obvious. His knowledge of the hitters in the league and just how comfortable and how much our pitchers love throwing to him is also something to take into consideration. That, and hes only 28yo.

    Once again, to not sign Salty to a 3-4 year deal would be a huge mistake. I say 4yr 35-40M.

     

     

     



    I agree, and of all the stats I have posted recently, the one that sticks out the most is how most pitchers have improved with Salty from 2011 to 2013. Most have improved more with him than they have improved with the other catchers (or gotten worse by less).

     

     

     

    Yes, VTek, Shoppach and Ross are not the same catchers, but the point is still valid.

     

     




    Exactly Moon. Thats what Im looking at. Salty has improved with every pitcher.

     

     

     



    Well, there are guys like Aceves, but yes, almost every pitcher.

     




    Some pitchers are just in their own world and we will take those guys (Aceves) with a grain of salt. he was going to do whatever he wanted. Salty, nor any catcher, would make a difference with that lunatic.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    Salty is tied for 7th in catcher WAR at 3.6. According to Fangraphs, that equates to $17.8M. Salty is in his prime on offense and just beginning his prime years (traditional for catchers is probably 30-34) on defense.

    If he just gives us 2 years like 2013 and then drops off, that's woth about $36M right there. I do not think $48M/4 it too much, but I would try to get him to take $38M/3 with a club option for year 4 ($1M buyout). If he says no, offer the QO and let the chips fall...

    Sox4ever

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    You guys do realize that CERA is IMPOSSIBLE to compare 2 catchers unless they have almost the exact same IP with the same pitchers over a few years, right?

    With that said, CERA is basically only good to see if one catcher improves with a certain pitcher over a period of time.

    Salty's defense has improved a lot. This is not arguable. Hes not a top defensive catcher, but hes IS a slightly above average defensive catcher compared to all MLB catchers. I could care less that he has just under a 22% career CS. Put anyone behind the plate with Lack or Doubie for a season and let me know what his stats are. His is a top 10 catcher. Top in pitch framing and verty good at blocking balls in the dirt. You dont need stats to know this if you have a clue and have watched all his games over the last 3 years. It pretty obvious. His knowledge of the hitters in the league and just how comfortable and how much our pitchers love throwing to him is also something to take into consideration. That, and hes only 28yo.

    Once again, to not sign Salty to a 3-4 year deal would be a huge mistake. I say 4yr 35-40M.




    Your comments on these Salty threads have been very funny. Almost makes me think you are related to him. If so, I can respect.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Congratulations Salty!!

    Here's an interesting number concerning Passed Balls:

    Since 2012, Salty has 13 Passed Balls, but there are 10 catchers in MLB with less innings caught and the same or more PBs. There are 2 catchers with more innings than Salty and a higher PB/inning ratio. That's 12 total. Now, of the 57 catchers with less innings than Salty, more than 500 innings, and less than 13 PBs there are 31 catchers with a PB/inning ratio higher than Salty. That's 43 in total. I count about 22 with a better ratio, but only 6 of them have caught more innings than Salty.

    Salty has come a long way in this area since 2011. I lost my data from 2011, but even if you took away the Wakefield PBs and Wake innings from 2011, Salty's PB/inning was much much higher than 2012-2013.

    To me, his only defensive weakness is his throwing arm on stolen bases. The significance of his poor CS% has been way overvalued. Had Salty finished with a league average CS%, it would have only cut down about 14-18 SBs. How many runs did that lead to? How many runs did Salty save by allowing less PBs than 43 other MLb catchers? How many runs did he save by being one of the leagues best pitch framer? One study showed an amazing amount. I won't touch the pitch-calling and staff-handling aspect: it's been beaten to death already.

    Salty is a decent defensive catcher when all the aspects are accounted for.

    He is a top 5-8 offensive catcher. 

    He just entered his prime for a catcher.

    Sox4ever

     
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