crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

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    crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    Some thoughts on the trade market for the Sox, moreso for the sake of baseball discussion.  I think many will hate these.  Some deals would preclude making others.

     

    Trade: Ryan Dempster to the Reds for Ryan Hanigan.

     Why it works for Boston:  Hanigan is an elite defensive catcher, which is first and foremost.  Offensively, he fits  the Sox high OBP / pitch count working strategy.  With notorious rookie-hater Dusty Baker out of the picture, the Reds are moving on to see what Deven Mesoraco is capable of behind the plate, and have defensive whiz kid Tucker Barnhart not far behind.  The Sox have their catching prospects as well, and really just need a stopgap solution.  Hanigan projects to make $2.3 in arbitration this year, and is a suitable backup option once Ross leaves after 2014.  That Hanigan does not hit left-handed making for a platoon situation is immaterial; starting catchers are often chosen based on their own team’s starting pitcher, not the opposition.

     Why it works for Cincinnati:  They need to replace Bronson Arroyo, and unlikely re-sign.   Dempster is a better pitcher than Arroyo (Dempster: 1.3WAR last year, 7.1 in the last 3; Arroyo 0.8WAR last year, 1.7 in the last 3), and likely comes at a reasonable price with virtually no commitment.  His salary is rather high, but this is offset by the short term commitment.   The Reds certainly must realize that expecting a full season from Tony Cingrani is probably wishful thinking, and do need another pitcher capable of eating innings.  Or, it gives them the option to move final-arb year Homer Bailey to help fill other needs or replenish the future.

     Concerns:  Huge undersell on Dempster, who is undervalued by many Sox fans.  He’s better than Jason Vargas, who just received a 4 year deal.  Really, for this deal to equalize, the Reds should be the ones kicking in something else.  Or the Sox should offer a lesser piece, like Franklin Morales.

     

     

    Trade Ryan Lavarnway to the Marlins for Ryan Webb. 

    Why it works for Boston:  The trades will not all involve players solely named “Ryan”, but it does make for a good theme.  Webb is a solid under-the-radar relief pitcher who is in position to price himself out of Miami’s plans by projecting to be worth $1.3mill in arbitration.  His high groundball tendencies do cause for some concern with the Sox infield defense, but ultimately he keeps the ball in the park with them as well.  The Sox are likely to need a RHRP in the pen, which is very lefty-heavy at the moment, although today's acquisition of Badenhop did mitigate this somewhat.

    Why it works for Miami:  They need a catcher, badly.  They need a lot of things badly, but you can only get so much for Ryan Webb.   Baby steps, Fishies.  Baby steps.

     

    Concerns:  Despite concerns about Lavarnway’s defense, at some point he has to be considered an actual option for the Sox, who don’t have a catcher themselves.  At the worst, he is close to what Saltalamacchia was prior to last season, and still has the possibility of being a respectable MLB catcher who won’t drag a team into oblivion with his defense.   Offensively, his successes and failures at the MLB level have come over sporadic playing time, and really tell you nothing.   We do know he has nothing left to prove at the AAA level.  He won’t be Carlton Fisk, but how much worse can he be than Plan B-C-D Dioner Navarro?  Yes Navarro is a former All Star, but that was back in 2008.  Geovany Soto was an All Star that year, too. 

     

    Trade John Lackey to the Royals for Billy Butler

     Why it works for Boston:  Ideally, the Sox would move Peavy for Butler, and I prefer the shorter deal leaving.  But let’s say the Royals pass on that.  Butler is a defensively-inept first base candidate.  He does Whop’Em in at a .280 / .351 / .444 hitter with 19HRs, but that “Fenways” into a .299 / .367 / .474 hitter with 25HRs, which is basically what Napoli gave you last year.  His hit chart from last year indicated he had 9 flyouts that would have been out of Fenway or off the Monster. Granted, his speed does not mean all of those turn into extra-base hits, and he is a legitimate GIDP threat every time he steps to the plate, sometimes even when no runners are on base. Butler’s contract is actually reasonable, either $9mill for one year or $20.5 for two.  Napoli does figure to cost more , and for longer.  Also, Lackey is a tough move after his terrific bounce-back season, although one has to wonder if this is the immediate future, or just an opportunity to sell high on a pitcher who has already spent 3 seasons as contractual deadweight and is under contract for his age 35 and age 36 seasons.

     Why it works for Kansas City:  They have to be all in now, if not sooner, and their window to win is exactly the same length as James Shields’ contract (one year).  Signing Vargas was nice and cute, but they still feature a rotation with Jeremy Guthrie and, well, frankly, your guess is as good as mine after these three.  Frankly, any pitcher in the Sox rotation represents an upgrade over everyone they have except Shields. And And if things do not work out for KC in 2014, Lackey will be easier to trade than Twitter stock, even with only one year left.

      Concerns:  While Butler would look good in Fenway, and is reportedly available, how available is he really?  KC might have interest, but also might be looking to move their biggest expendable “blockbuster” oriented piece and want a haul in return, like they did with Alex Gordon last year.  And of course, speed and defense – Butler does not have them.   Also, Lackey figures to be difficult to replace.  So difficult, Lackey himself may not be able to do it.  Also, this trade needs at least one “Ryan.”

     

    Trade Ryan Dempster to the Royals for Luke Hochevar

     Why it works for Boston:  3-time first round pick Hochevar seems to have finally found his calling, after a stellar year pitching in middle relief, where he was all but unhittable.   Bullpen help is and should be an area of huge concern for the Sox.

     Why it works for KC:  Hochevar may have found his calling, but it is not one KC needs.  As it stands, he is maybe their fourth or fifth best relief option in a stellar bullpen.  On top of that, his career as a starters has been, to be kind, disappointing.    And to make matters even worse, he is projected to make $5mill in arbitration, which is way too much for the fourth or fifth best relief option on any team.  While Dempster makes more cash, he could also be their second or third best starting pitcher next year.  And after removing Hochevar’s salary, he figures to cost them the same net cash as Jason Vargas.  However, he will not require the overpay in years to Royals admitted to needing in order to secure the services of Vargas.

     Concerns:  The Royals really, really, really need a second baseman, and possibly an outfielder.  They probably do move Hochevar this off-season, but their targets might be more specific to these positions.  And really, huge undersell on Dempster again.

     

    Trade Bryce Brentz , Michael Almanzar and Brian Johnson to the Padres for Yasmani Grandal.

     Why it works for Boston:  Lost in his Biogenesis involvement is the fact that Grandal is a really good catcher.  Offensively, his power numbers from his rookie season are certainly in question, but his ability to work the count and draw walks are not.   He really does not block Vazquez or Swihart, as by the time those players are ready, if they ever are, Grandal would still be an easily movable piece, much like Swihart and Vazquez.   I am not huge on Brentz, who is the slightly younger Lavarnway, but with worse pitch recognition skills.  Move Brentz to San Diego, move Lavarnway to RF (or Miami, see above) and move on.

     Why it works for the Padres:  They might be selling low on a player with a tainted reputation, but they figure to want to get their top catching prospect Austin Hedges an MLB job at some point, too.   Brentz, Johnson and Almanzar give them quality prospects they can either use, or can flip easily for pieces that fit better.   Almanzar admittedly is a bit of a project.

     Concerns:  Really, I don’t have any with this deal, except that San Diego might want a little bit more.  They did give up Mat Latos to get Grandal, after all.  For some prospects, there is no reason to not be amenable.  But some names have to be off limits.    A lot of case-by-case for other names. 

    Also, there are no Ryans here, but Yasmani Grandal is an anagram for “Ryan Manglandias”, and I can live with that.  You can, too.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    As usual Moe, nothing crazy about these proposals at all. You always put a lot of thought, effort and a touch of humor in your posts while not making them too ridiculous to the opposing GMs.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to notin's comment:

    Some thoughts on the trade market for the Sox, moreso for the sake of baseball discussion.  I think many will hate these.  Some deals would preclude making others.

     

    Trade: Ryan Dempster to the Reds for Ryan Hanigan.

     Why it works for Boston:  Hanigan is an elite defensive catcher, which is first and foremost.  Offensively, he fits  the Sox high OBP / pitch count working strategy.  With notorious rookie-hater Dusty Baker out of the picture, the Reds are moving on to see what Deven Mesoraco is capable of behind the plate, and have defensive whiz kid Tucker Barnhart not far behind.  The Sox have their catching prospects as well, and really just need a stopgap solution.  Hanigan projects to make $2.3 in arbitration this year, and is a suitable backup option once Ross leaves after 2014.  That Hanigan does not hit left-handed making for a platoon situation is immaterial; starting catchers are often chosen based on their own team’s starting pitcher, not the opposition.

     Why it works for Cincinnati:  They need to replace Bronson Arroyo, and unlikely re-sign.   Dempster is a better pitcher than Arroyo (Dempster: 1.3WAR last year, 7.1 in the last 3; Arroyo 0.8WAR last year, 1.7 in the last 3), and likely comes at a reasonable price with virtually no commitment.  His salary is rather high, but this is offset by the short term commitment.   The Reds certainly must realize that expecting a full season from Tony Cingrani is probably wishful thinking, and do need another pitcher capable of eating innings.  Or, it gives them the option to move final-arb year Homer Bailey to help fill other needs or replenish the future.

     Concerns:  Huge undersell on Dempster, who is undervalued by many Sox fans.  He’s better than Jason Vargas, who just received a 4 year deal.  Really, for this deal to equalize, the Reds should be the ones kicking in something else.  Or the Sox should offer a lesser piece, like Franklin Morales.

     

     

    Trade Ryan Lavarnway to the Marlins for Ryan Webb. 

    Why it works for Boston:  The trades will not all involve players solely named “Ryan”, but it does make for a good theme.  Webb is a solid under-the-radar relief pitcher who is in position to price himself out of Miami’s plans by projecting to be worth $1.3mill in arbitration.  His high groundball tendencies do cause for some concern with the Sox infield defense, but ultimately he keeps the ball in the park with them as well.  The Sox are likely to need a RHRP in the pen, which is very lefty-heavy at the moment, although today's acquisition of Badenhop did mitigate this somewhat.

    Why it works for Miami:  They need a catcher, badly.  They need a lot of things badly, but you can only get so much for Ryan Webb.   Baby steps, Fishies.  Baby steps.

     

    Concerns:  Despite concerns about Lavarnway’s defense, at some point he has to be considered an actual option for the Sox, who don’t have a catcher themselves.  At the worst, he is close to what Saltalamacchia was prior to last season, and still has the possibility of being a respectable MLB catcher who won’t drag a team into oblivion with his defense.   Offensively, his successes and failures at the MLB level have come over sporadic playing time, and really tell you nothing.   We do know he has nothing left to prove at the AAA level.  He won’t be Carlton Fisk, but how much worse can he be than Plan B-C-D Dioner Navarro?  Yes Navarro is a former All Star, but that was back in 2008.  Geovany Soto was an All Star that year, too. 

     

    Trade John Lackey to the Royals for Billy Butler

     Why it works for Boston:  Ideally, the Sox would move Peavy for Butler, and I prefer the shorter deal leaving.  But let’s say the Royals pass on that.  Butler is a defensively-inept first base candidate.  He does Whop’Em in at a .280 / .351 / .444 hitter with 19HRs, but that “Fenways” into a .299 / .367 / .474 hitter with 25HRs, which is basically what Napoli gave you last year.  His hit chart from last year indicated he had 9 flyouts that would have been out of Fenway or off the Monster. Granted, his speed does not mean all of those turn into extra-base hits, and he is a legitimate GIDP threat every time he steps to the plate, sometimes even when no runners are on base. Butler’s contract is actually reasonable, either $9mill for one year or $20.5 for two.  Napoli does figure to cost more , and for longer.  Also, Lackey is a tough move after his terrific bounce-back season, although one has to wonder if this is the immediate future, or just an opportunity to sell high on a pitcher who has already spent 3 seasons as contractual deadweight and is under contract for his age 35 and age 36 seasons.

     Why it works for Kansas City:  They have to be all in now, if not sooner, and their window to win is exactly the same length as James Shields’ contract (one year).  Signing Vargas was nice and cute, but they still feature a rotation with Jeremy Guthrie and, well, frankly, your guess is as good as mine after these three.  Frankly, any pitcher in the Sox rotation represents an upgrade over everyone they have except Shields. And And if things do not work out for KC in 2014, Lackey will be easier to trade than Twitter stock, even with only one year left.

      Concerns:  While Butler would look good in Fenway, and is reportedly available, how available is he really?  KC might have interest, but also might be looking to move their biggest expendable “blockbuster” oriented piece and want a haul in return, like they did with Alex Gordon last year.  And of course, speed and defense – Butler does not have them.   Also, Lackey figures to be difficult to replace.  So difficult, Lackey himself may not be able to do it.  Also, this trade needs at least one “Ryan.”

     

    Trade Ryan Dempster to the Royals for Luke Hochevar

     Why it works for Boston:  3-time first round pick Hochevar seems to have finally found his calling, after a stellar year pitching in middle relief, where he was all but unhittable.   Bullpen help is and should be an area of huge concern for the Sox.

     Why it works for KC:  Hochevar may have found his calling, but it is not one KC needs.  As it stands, he is maybe their fourth or fifth best relief option in a stellar bullpen.  On top of that, his career as a starters has been, to be kind, disappointing.    And to make matters even worse, he is projected to make $5mill in arbitration, which is way too much for the fourth or fifth best relief option on any team.  While Dempster makes more cash, he could also be their second or third best starting pitcher next year.  And after removing Hochevar’s salary, he figures to cost them the same net cash as Jason Vargas.  However, he will not require the overpay in years to Royals admitted to needing in order to secure the services of Vargas.

     Concerns:  The Royals really, really, really need a second baseman, and possibly an outfielder.  They probably do move Hochevar this off-season, but their targets might be more specific to these positions.  And really, huge undersell on Dempster again.

     

    Trade Bryce Brentz , Michael Almanzar and Brian Johnson to the Padres for Yasmani Grandal.

     Why it works for Boston:  Lost in his Biogenesis involvement is the fact that Grandal is a really good catcher.  Offensively, his power numbers from his rookie season are certainly in question, but his ability to work the count and draw walks are not.   He really does not block Vazquez or Swihart, as by the time those players are ready, if they ever are, Grandal would still be an easily movable piece, much like Swihart and Vazquez.   I am not huge on Brentz, who is the slightly younger Lavarnway, but with worse pitch recognition skills.  Move Brentz to San Diego, move Lavarnway to RF (or Miami, see above) and move on.

     Why it works for the Padres:  They might be selling low on a player with a tainted reputation, but they figure to want to get their top catching prospect Austin Hedges an MLB job at some point, too.   Brentz, Johnson and Almanzar give them quality prospects they can either use, or can flip easily for pieces that fit better.   Almanzar admittedly is a bit of a project.

     Concerns:  Really, I don’t have any with this deal, except that San Diego might want a little bit more.  They did give up Mat Latos to get Grandal, after all.  For some prospects, there is no reason to not be amenable.  But some names have to be off limits.    A lot of case-by-case for other names. 

    Also, there are no Ryans here, but Yasmani Grandal is an anagram for “Ryan Manglandias”, and I can live with that.  You can, too.



    Good stuff, Notin, although I don't think you'll see Billy Butler here anytime soon & certainly not for Lackey, unless Lou Gorman walks through that door.  I'm a big believer in 1st base defense & Butler is tragic.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the Yankees sandwiched their last 2 championships around 8 years of "Iron Glove Giambi." 

    Any time Butler & Ortiz are on 1st & 2nd with nobody out, a sharply hit ground ball to an infielder is a certain triple play.  Some other interesting options though.  

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    You seem to undervalue Dempster.  If KC or Cincy expects $$$ as well, they can go overpay for Arroyo or whoever.  And I am normally not opposed to paying cash in deals.  The stigma that has strikes me as odd.

     
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    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    Yasmani Grandal, a former No. 12 first-round pick with a MLB career line of .271/.380/.429/.809 (OPS+ 130) in 334 plate appearances despite a tough hitting environment, can't be had for an undistinguished cast of Red Sox castoffs ranked No. 15, No. 18 and No. 26 within the organization by SoxProspects.

    I suspect the San Padres would receive far better offers for the switch-hitting catcher who just turned 25 this month.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    Joe, you'd be "all over" trading Peavy for Butler?  Are you trading Ortiz in a separate deal?  Butler is as bad as it gets defensively and very likely will never be a full time 1st baseman again.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    notin, I'd like to see these trades:

    Trade: Ryan Dempster to the Reds for Ryan Hanigan. *

    Trade Ryan Lavarnway to the Marlins for Ryan Webb.  

     

    *If Cincy says no, I'd trade Bryce Brentz , Michael Almanzar and Brian Johnson to the Padres for Yasmani Grandal.

     

    The savings from the Dempster deal will allow us to go large somewhere else.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    I believe you have over rated the Sox prospects in these deals. Especially Lava and Brentz. I think they both have very minimal appeal

    I also feel you have under valued Lackey and Demp....Butler is a turn off for me starting with defense.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    I believe you have over rated the Sox prospects in these deals. Especially Lava and Brentz. I think they both have very minimal appeal

    I also feel you have under valued Lackey and Demp....Butler is a turn off for me starting with defense.  




    Butler is a DH. Nothing more

    And I agree about some here undervaluing what Lackey and Demp bring to the table.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    You seem to undervalue Dempster.  If KC or Cincy expects $$$ as well, they can go overpay for Arroyo or whoever.  And I am normally not opposed to paying cash in deals.  The stigma that has strikes me as odd.



    On Dempster, my assumption is that, if we put him on waivers, no one would claim him at his salary.  So I assume that any Dempster deal would have to include a markdown to market for Dempster, plus additional cash to make them whole for the player they are giving up.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    Joe, you'd be "all over" trading Peavy for Butler?  Are you trading Ortiz in a separate deal?  Butler is as bad as it gets defensively and very likely will never be a full time 1st baseman again.



    It's admittedly been a while since I've seen him play 1st.  How would he compare with say Fielder?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    You seem to undervalue Dempster.  If KC or Cincy expects $$$ as well, they can go overpay for Arroyo or whoever.  And I am normally not opposed to paying cash in deals.  The stigma that has strikes me as odd.



    On Dempster, my assumption is that, if we put him on waivers, no one would claim him at his salary.  So I assume that any Dempster deal would have to include a markdown to market for Dempster, plus additional cash to make them whole for the player they are giving up.



    I would think there would be multiple teams that would put in claims for a guy who is on a one year/13 million dollar deal and is pretty much a lock to give you 180 solid innings. Not to mention that he'd be a veteran leader who is as well liked as anybody in baseball.  Look at the Vargas deal. There is a ton of money out there and more teams may be inclined to copy the Sox model & go big dollars/short term.  If the Sox do decide to move Dempster at some point, I wouldn't expect them to pay any of his contract, unless they are getting significant value in return.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    Joe, you'd be "all over" trading Peavy for Butler?  Are you trading Ortiz in a separate deal?  Butler is as bad as it gets defensively and very likely will never be a full time 1st baseman again.



    It's admittedly been a while since I've seen him play 1st.  How would he compare with say Fielder?




    Butler is a statue. For a big man, Prince is pretty agile.

    Seriously, Butler is a nightmare in the field and on the baspaths. Id take prince everytime.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    You seem to undervalue Dempster.  If KC or Cincy expects $$$ as well, they can go overpay for Arroyo or whoever.  And I am normally not opposed to paying cash in deals.  The stigma that has strikes me as odd.



    On Dempster, my assumption is that, if we put him on waivers, no one would claim him at his salary.  So I assume that any Dempster deal would have to include a markdown to market for Dempster, plus additional cash to make them whole for the player they are giving up.



    I would think there would be multiple teams that would put in claims for a guy who is on a one year/13 million dollar deal and is pretty much a lock to give you 180 solid innings. Not to mention that he'd be a veteran leader who is as well liked as anybody in baseball.  Look at the Vargas deal. There is a ton of money out there and more teams may be inclined to copy the Sox model & go big dollars/short term.  If the Sox do decide to move Dempster at some point, I wouldn't expect them to pay any of his contract, unless they are getting significant value in return.




    ^^THIS^^

    He is so undervalued by some. Seems like if a guy doesnt have 15 wins and a 3.5ERA hes not worth it.

    To have a veteran leader who can solidify the back end of the rotation is certainly worth it. Never complains and will prevent you from piecing together the back of the rotation. Also saves the pen. Knowing he will give you 30+ starts and 180innings makes managers and GMs all warm and fuzzy inside.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    Dempster frees up some money. Could be the difference in the Free Agents we have.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    You seem to undervalue Dempster.  If KC or Cincy expects $$$ as well, they can go overpay for Arroyo or whoever.  And I am normally not opposed to paying cash in deals.  The stigma that has strikes me as odd.



    On Dempster, my assumption is that, if we put him on waivers, no one would claim him at his salary.  So I assume that any Dempster deal would have to include a markdown to market for Dempster, plus additional cash to make them whole for the player they are giving up.



    I would think there would be multiple teams that would put in claims for a guy who is on a one year/13 million dollar deal and is pretty much a lock to give you 180 solid innings. Not to mention that he'd be a veteran leader who is as well liked as anybody in baseball.  Look at the Vargas deal. There is a ton of money out there and more teams may be inclined to copy the Sox model & go big dollars/short term.  If the Sox do decide to move Dempster at some point, I wouldn't expect them to pay any of his contract, unless they are getting significant value in return.




    ^^THIS^^

    He is so undervalued by some. Seems like if a guy doesnt have 15 wins and a 3.5ERA hes not worth it.

    To have a veteran leader who can solidify the back end of the rotation is certainly worth it. Never complains and will prevent you from piecing together the back of the rotation. Also saves the pen. Knowing he will give you 30+ starts and 180innings makes managers and GMs all warm and fuzzy inside.



    Agreed, Southpaw.  I think a lot of teams would be happy to have Dempster on a one year deal right now.  All I know is that I would love to be in Ben Cherington's position, as he'll be heading to the Winter Meetings coming off a World Series Championship with a loaded farm system, excess starting pitching (or so it seems) and enough payroll flexibilty to fill whatever holes they need to.  Throw in the fact that there's money out there to spend even among the smaller market teams & I don't think the Sox will be paying parts of any contracts in trades this winter.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    1-I think you'd have to throw in cash for Hanigan, but as long as it is not too much, I like the balance.

    2-Not crazy about Webb's walk rate.

    3-I think I'd prefer Lackey, though there is a great fit there.  If you put Peavy in there instead, even with a B prospect of a few million in salary relief, I'd be all over that.

    4-Yes on Hockevar, but they will still ask for $$$$.

    5-Yes on Grandal, but they'll ask for a pretty good SP to be added.  But you have to drop the anagram Man Gland.



    You seem to undervalue Dempster.  If KC or Cincy expects $$$ as well, they can go overpay for Arroyo or whoever.  And I am normally not opposed to paying cash in deals.  The stigma that has strikes me as odd.



    On Dempster, my assumption is that, if we put him on waivers, no one would claim him at his salary.  So I assume that any Dempster deal would have to include a markdown to market for Dempster, plus additional cash to make them whole for the player they are giving up.



    I would think there would be multiple teams that would put in claims for a guy who is on a one year/13 million dollar deal and is pretty much a lock to give you 180 solid innings. Not to mention that he'd be a veteran leader who is as well liked as anybody in baseball.  Look at the Vargas deal. There is a ton of money out there and more teams may be inclined to copy the Sox model & go big dollars/short term.  If the Sox do decide to move Dempster at some point, I wouldn't expect them to pay any of his contract, unless they are getting significant value in return.




    ^^THIS^^

    He is so undervalued by some. Seems like if a guy doesnt have 15 wins and a 3.5ERA hes not worth it.

    To have a veteran leader who can solidify the back end of the rotation is certainly worth it. Never complains and will prevent you from piecing together the back of the rotation. Also saves the pen. Knowing he will give you 30+ starts and 180innings makes managers and GMs all warm and fuzzy inside.



    Agreed, Southpaw.  I think a lot of teams would be happy to have Dempster on a one year deal right now.  All I know is that I would love to be in Ben Cherington's position, as he'll be heading to the Winter Meetings coming off a World Series Championship with a loaded farm system, excess starting pitching (or so it seems) and enough payroll flexibilty to fill whatever holes they need to.  Throw in the fact that there's money out there to spend even among the smaller market teams & I don't think the Sox will be paying parts of any contracts in trades this winter.




    I agree. I certainly wasnt implying to not try and move him. I think some here are confusing what I said. I was merely saying that I dont think we are going to have to eat half his contract to get something back because I, and I believe a bunch of GM's, understand the value he brings to a rotation.

    And yes, with all the money that smaller market teams have, they can take on 10M+ of Dempsters deal.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    I believe you have over rated the Sox prospects in these deals. Especially Lava and Brentz. I think they both have very minimal appeal

    I also feel you have under valued Lackey and Demp....Butler is a turn off for me starting with defense.  



    Overvalued Lavarnway?  I only included him in one deal, and that was for a middle reliever who might get non-tendered.  Bryce? Yea, I overvalued him.   I do think it is time they moved him.  He isn't very good.

     

    I did say all Dempster deals were huge undersells.   Lackey is a puzzle.  Will he really ever be this good again?  Or is this the time to make the always difficult decision to sell high?  Most people refer to selling high in the past tense, when it doesn't matter.    The question does exist in tbe present...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Yasmani Grandal, a former No. 12 first-round pick with a MLB career line of .271/.380/.429/.809 (OPS+ 130) in 334 plate appearances despite a tough hitting environment, can't be had for an undistinguished cast of Red Sox castoffs ranked No. 15, No. 18 and No. 26 within the organization by SoxProspects.

    I suspect the San Padres would receive far better offers for the switch-hitting catcher who just turned 25 this month.



     1.  You undervalue the Sox prospects,  in particular Johnson.  Their ranks are immaterial in the wake of the view of the Sox farm system in general, one that sbnation.com questioned as to whether or nog it was the best of all time.  Do not confuse it with the Mariners farm that is riding a steady stream of high-ranked unproductivity.

     

    2. Do not overlook that some deals have to be written as such for punchlines.  Ryan Manglandias is not comedy gold. But it is obvious attempted comedy.

     

    3.  Only attacked 1?  I have a bunch there.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    Ryan Dempster was valued at 1.3 WAR*, or $6.3 million, this season in 32 appearances, including 29 starts.

    Steamer projects a 2014 WAR of 0.8 for Dempster in 35 appearances, including 10 starts. This season 0.8 WAR was valued at about $3.4 million, although WAR value is expected to jump next year with salary inflation fueled by new television revenues.

    Dempster is owed $13.25 million in 2014.

    With those numbers, I've gotta believe that Dempster, who turns 37 in May, would clear waivers. I suspect the Red Sox would need to add money, or a player with true value, to any trade of Dempster.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to notin's comment:
    In response to hill55's comment:

    Yasmani Grandal, a former No. 12 first-round pick with a MLB career line of .271/.380/.429/.809 (OPS+ 130) in 334 plate appearances despite a tough hitting environment, can't be had for an undistinguished cast of Red Sox castoffs ranked No. 15, No. 18 and No. 26 within the organization by SoxProspects.

    I suspect the San Padres would receive far better offers for the switch-hitting catcher who just turned 25 this month.

    1.  You undervalue the Sox prospects,  in particular Johnson.  Their ranks are immaterial in the wake of the view of the Sox farm system in general, one that sbnation.com questioned as to whether or nog it was the best of all time.  Do not confuse it with the Mariners farm that is riding a steady stream of high-ranked unproductivity.

    Brian Johnson, who has never pitched above Class A as he approaches his 23rd birthday in a few weeks, received these blurbs from the pro-Red Sox SoxProspects website: "Projects as a reliever, but has ceiling of a No. 5 starter" and "Will need to maintain body as he ages. A bit on the soft side."

    http://www.soxprospects.com/players/johnson-brian.htm

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Ryan Dempster was valued at 1.3 WAR*, or $6.3 million, this season in 32 appearances, including 29 starts.

    Steamer projects a 2014 WAR of 0.8 for Dempster in 35 appearances, including 10 starts. This season 0.8 WAR was valued at about $3.4 million, although WAR value is expected to jump next year with salary inflation fueled by new television revenues.

    Dempster is owed $13.25 million in 2014.

    With those numbers, I've gotta believe that Dempster, who turns 37 in May, would clear waivers. I suspect the Red Sox would need to add money, or a player with true value, to any trade of Dempster.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

     



    Fangraphs is obviously entitled to their opinion, but in the real world, when trades, claims and free agent signings are made, "WAR" projections aren't the "be all/end all" when it comes to transactions.  I would imagine Fangraphs would have a lot more value in Fantasy Baseball Leagues, although I do realize the information they provide is taken into consideration.  Just speculation here, but my guess is that a team like Pittsburgh would claim Dempster in a minute.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    Amazing Dempster is 132-133 for his career. Seems like he pitches his best last year of contract.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: crazy thoughts on the trade market front...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:
    In response to hill55's comment:

    Yasmani Grandal, a former No. 12 first-round pick with a MLB career line of .271/.380/.429/.809 (OPS+ 130) in 334 plate appearances despite a tough hitting environment, can't be had for an undistinguished cast of Red Sox castoffs ranked No. 15, No. 18 and No. 26 within the organization by SoxProspects.

    I suspect the San Padres would receive far better offers for the switch-hitting catcher who just turned 25 this month.

    1.  You undervalue the Sox prospects,  in particular Johnson.  Their ranks are immaterial in the wake of the view of the Sox farm system in general, one that sbnation.com questioned as to whether or nog it was the best of all time.  Do not confuse it with the Mariners farm that is riding a steady stream of high-ranked unproductivity.

    Brian Johnson, who has never pitched above Class A as he approaches his 23rd birthday in a few weeks, received these blurbs from the pro-Red Sox SoxProspects website: "Projects as a reliever, but has ceiling of a No. 5 starter" and "Will need to maintain body as he ages. A bit on the soft side."

    http://www.soxprospects.com/players/johnson-brian.htm



    Gee ,  normally you disregard soxprospect.com commentary.  So does that mean Brentz, who gets decent prjections, is worthwhile?  Or do you only use negative comments?

     
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