CURSE of the HR DERBY

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    CURSE of the HR DERBY

    Last year I posted about the HR Derby, and it's possible effect upon hitter's swing and results.

    Let's take a look at the 2012 HR Derby participants and their before and after totals.

    Player        before HRD        After HRD

    Fielder            15                      15

    McCutchen     18                      13

    Cano              20                      13

    Beltran           20                      12

    Kemp             12                      11

    Cargo            17                       5

    Bautista         27                      0

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    I'd suggest adding games played to the stats.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    Other than Cargo and Bautista, the difference is not dramatic, and Bautista spent most of the second half on the DL. Could as easily be second half fatigue and nagging injuries. That being said, despite these inconclusive numbers, I still believe theres someting to it. Gonzalez can say his shoulder was fine all he wants, but the bottom line is he turned into Boggs after the derby, and also others have in past years.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    The All Star Game is not necessarily at the halfway point of the season. Often there are more games played before the break than after.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    what about non-HR derby participants numbers before and after? need a baseline. if the rest of the sluggers in the league have declining second half HR numbers then it can be attributed to the length of the season (being rundown and fatigued) instead of the Derby.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    There may be a natural built-in bias too, in that players who are slugging well up to that point in the season would tend to be participants in the home run derby, rather than it based on their average power production over the course of the previous 162 games, including games after the all-star break from the previous season.  Thus, the home run derby favors sluggers who got off to a good start in the first place and may not be able to duplicate the same power production in the second half.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    Some good points made here, some are obvious, like there are fewer games after the AS break. Everythinng that I've found in looking at this points to lower production after participation in almost every case. There is no good reason to join in, but this espn link says otherwise:  sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3483235

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    Some good points made here, some are obvious, like there are fewer games after the AS break. Everythinng that I've found in looking at this points to lower production after participation in almost every case. There is no good reason to join in, but this espn link says otherwise:  sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3483235



    http://hometownhalo.blogspot.com/2012/07/breaking-down-home-run-derby-myth-4381.html

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    I've never been a fan of the HR derby for this very reason...but then again..I've also never been in favor of the All-Star game either.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pinstripezac35. Show pinstripezac35's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    In response to miscricket's comment:

    I've never been a fan of the HR derby for this very reason...but then again..I've also never been in favor of the All-Star game either.



    I've never been a fan of the HR derby for this very reason..

     

    I don't think there is anything unusual about that


    but I don't think the HRD is for adults

    IMO it's a tool to gets kids interested in the game

    and I don't see a problem with that

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    In response to mef429's comment:

    what about non-HR derby participants numbers before and after? need a baseline. if the rest of the sluggers in the league have declining second half HR numbers then it can be attributed to the length of the season (being rundown and fatigued) instead of the Derby.




    Excellent question

     

    All of MLB

     

    Before ASB: 2592 HRs

    After ASB: 2342 HRs

     

    Given the ASB is after the 81 game mark, I qwould say that is a fairly equal split....

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: CURSE of the HR DERBY

    I don't believe in curses, fate, serendipity....you name it. To me those are all just man made definitions to explain the randomness and the chaos of the world we live in.

     

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