David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    Let's pretend Papi to have similar or better 2012 season, say 28-30 HRs, near 100 RBIs, close to .300 BA/ .400 OBP/ .500 SLG, hits against lefties as well... and Papi still wants multi year deal but BC says no way.  Do Sox and Ortiz go through the same process as 2011 offseason?
    What about Youk or Lava.  What are your thoughts? Just became curious all of a sudden..
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    An interesting question.  One that I simply cannot entertain until next fall.  
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    Depends on Middlebrooks offensive progression and Lavarnways defensive progression.
    Middlebrooks is a better defensive 3B than Youk right now. Will he be able to adjust to offspeed is the major question on his big league future.  
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chilliwings. Show Chilliwings's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    I'd only consider year-to-year at this point.  Even then, we're massively overpaying for his expected 2012 production so unless the price tag comes down I'm not interested.

    Also, his (increasing) inability to play a position hamstrings him, and the team, not just in the interleague games but intraleague too.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]Depends on Middlebrooks offensive progression and Lavarnways defensive progression. Middlebrooks is a better defensive 3B than Youk right now. Will he be able to adjust to offspeed is the major question on his big league future.  
    Posted by rkarp[/QUOTE]

    Does that mean Ortiz doesn't have a shot at 2013 season with the Sox even if he puts up solid numbers in 2012? In that case, what if Ortiz asks less than
    $13MM which is less than Youk's 2013 club option?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    It's not a question of asking for $13 M--no matter what he puts up for numbers I say cut him loose as in Wake and Tek. Look at Vlad he can't find a home. That will be Ortiz in 2013. Worse case scenario--maybe bring Vlad in as a RH DH, Pinch Hitter and an Emergency Outfielder---perhaps for $1.5 or $3M with reachable incentives.

    At this time with every team looking to have one or two tough lefthanders on their staff it is imperative the Sox have a plan in place to sit Ortiz against Lefties regardless of his numbers in previous years. This is a new year, Ortiz is a year older--I think we will see a drop in production against lefties. Having Lavarnway or someone like Vlad available would be huge. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    The smart thing would have been to offer Ortiz three years with a team buyout on the third year, and then you have a lot more payroll flexibility.  As things stand, if Oriz has another good year, you have to either offer arbitration or forfeit your draft compensation - and why wouldn't Ortiz just accept arbitration again?


     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot : Does that mean Ortiz doesn't have a shot at 2013 season with the Sox even if he puts up solid numbers in 2012? In that case, what if Ortiz asks less than $13MM which is less than Youk's 2013 club option?
    Posted by seannybboi[/QUOTE]

    It does not mean that Ortiz does not have a shot. But if Middlebrooks is ready offensively (he already is defensively) then the Sox have options of Ortiz, Youk or Lavarnway.
    Personally, I prefer if Middlebrooks is ready, to use Youk as the DH for the next 2-4 years, and Lavarnway hopefully grows into the C position at least for 80-100 games (DH'ing another 30-40).
    THat allows Youk to play 1B and 3B when rest is needed for Agon or Middlebrooks. Ortiz salary is used elsewhere.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    I think Youk/Lava share the DH role next year, even if we have to go out and trade for a 3Bman.

    (I like Cecchini & Bogaerts at 3B more than Middlebrooks, but they may not be ready until 2014.)
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jb12bb. Show jb12bb's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    I think his numbers will decline, but not much.  I just dont see him getting a two year deal after this season from any team.  Especially not the price he wants which is 12-14 a season.

    Id like to see them go with a combonation of Youkilis, Gonzalez, and Lavarnway.  Lavarnway can hit and hit for power, he could also catch a couple times a week.  He would save the sox a ton of money using him in that way.

    Flexibility is key, you can give Gonzo and Youk days off from the field, carry an extra positional player and match up better against left handed hitters.

    Money saved can be used to Sign Hamels or Cain.  This offense can score regardless, but the RS will need to secure Ellsbury longterm after 2013.  Being able to lock him up and sign a stud pitcher to join Lester, Bucholz and Beckett.  Also Dice-K comes off the books and hopefully Lackey can come back and be a reliable fifth starter.  A rotation of Lester, Hamels, Buchholz, Beckett and Lackey would be very strong.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    I think his numbers will decline, but not much.  I just dont see him getting a two year deal after this season from any team.  Especially not the price he wants which is 12-14 a season.

    Id like to see them go with a combonation of Youkilis, Gonzalez, and Lavarnway.  Lavarnway can hit and hit for power, he could also catch a couple times a week.  He would save the sox a ton of money using him in that way.

    Flexibility is key, you can give Gonzo and Youk days off from the field, carry an extra positional player and match up better against left handed hitters.

    Money saved can be used to Sign Hamels or Cain.  This offense can score regardless, but the RS will need to secure Ellsbury longterm after 2013.  Being able to lock him up and sign a stud pitcher to join Lester, Bucholz and Beckett.  Also Dice-K comes off the books and hopefully Lackey can come back and be a reliable fifth starter.  A rotation of Lester, Hamels, Buchholz, Beckett and Lackey would be very strong.

    We lose...
    Papi    $14.575M
    Dice    $10.333M ($8.67M Luxury Tax)
    Jenks  $6M
    Ross    $3M
    Shop   $1.35M

    Total: $33.5M on Luxury Tax

    Arb/pre-arb Raises: $10-14M

    Total to spend and stay under 2013 cap: ~$20-24M
    (Youk option: $13M or $1M Buyout)

    Only Papi will be missed, and I agree, he can be replaced easily by the rotation you suggested:
    Youkilis : 65 gms @ DH/ 85 gms @ 3B
    Lavarnway: 85 gms @ DH/ 65 gms @ C (vs LHPs)
    AGon: 8 gms @ DH/ 150 gms @ 1B
    Pedey: 4 gms @ DH/154 gms @ 2B

    I'd love to get Matt Cain next winter, but if Bard does well as a starter, we may spend big on a power RH'd bat for RF.

    After 2013, we lose:
    Youk  $13M
    Ellsb  $10-14M (arb deal or compromise)
    Salty $3-5M  (arb deal or compromise)
    Sween $2-3M (arb deal)
    Punto  $1.5M
    Albers $1-1.5M (arb deal)

    Total: $32-36M to spend.
    (Minus arb/pre-arb deals)
    (Lester option: $14M or $245K buyout)

    That's enough to outbid anyone for Ellsbury, if he wants to stay here, and if we want to overpay another LH'd OF'er longterm. Personally, I think Jacoby will want to leave Boston, even for slightly less money.



     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    m
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    I wouldn't mind IF Ells want to leave when he hits FA.  We would have more than enough candidates in OF even if Ells leaves town for good.  Kalish should and must be healty and ready by then, CC is another option, Jacobs could try out, and Brentz, Sweeney, Linares, or even Bogaerts to fill the corners. 
    I would like to see Ben tries to lock him up in the mid-season (assuming Ells continues his legacy) or at the end of 2012 season and see what Ells is thinking.  If he hints at hitting the FA market, then trade him for solid #1-2 starter in the offseason.  We WILL need top of the rotation guy in 2013 to replace Beckett.  Beckett will be more comfortable option at #3-4 spot in 2013 season with Bucholz. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from MichFan. Show MichFan's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    I like Ortiz's numbers but he is one swing away from retirement.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]I think his numbers will decline, but not much.  I just dont see him getting a two year deal after this season from any team.  Especially not the price he wants which is 12-14 a season. Id like to see them go with a combonation of Youkilis, Gonzalez, and Lavarnway.  Lavarnway can hit and hit for power, he could also catch a couple times a week.  He would save the sox a ton of money using him in that way. Flexibility is key, you can give Gonzo and Youk days off from the field, carry an extra positional player and match up better against left handed hitters. Money saved can be used to Sign Hamels or Cain.  This offense can score regardless, but the RS will need to secure Ellsbury longterm after 2013.  Being able to lock him up and sign a stud pitcher to join Lester, Bucholz and Beckett.  Also Dice-K comes off the books and hopefully Lackey can come back and be a reliable fifth starter.  A rotation of Lester, Hamels, Buchholz, Beckett and Lackey would be very strong. We lose... Papi    $14.575M Dice    $10.333M ($8.67M Luxury Tax) Jenks  $6M Ross    $3M Shop   $1.35M Total: $33.5M on Luxury Tax Arb/pre-arb Raises: $10-14M Total to spend and stay under 2013 cap: ~$20-24M (Youk option: $13M or $1M Buyout) Only Papi will be missed, and I agree, he can be replaced easily by the rotation you suggested: Youkilis : 65 gms @ DH/ 85 gms @ 3B Lavarnway: 85 gms @ DH/ 65 gms @ C (vs LHPs) AGon: 8 gms @ DH/ 150 gms @ 1B Pedey: 4 gms @ DH/154 gms @ 2B I'd love to get Matt Cain next winter, but if Bard does well as a starter, we may spend big on a power RH'd bat for RF. After 2013, we lose: Youk  $13M Ellsb  $10-14M (arb deal or compromise) Salty $3-5M  (arb deal or compromise) Sween $2-3M (arb deal) Punto  $1.5M Albers $1-1.5M (arb deal) Total: $32-36M to spend. (Minus arb/pre-arb deals) (Lester option: $14M or $245K buyout) That's enough to outbid anyone for Ellsbury, if he wants to stay here, and if we want to overpay another LH'd OF'er longterm. Personally, I think Jacoby will want to leave Boston, even for slightly less money.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Moon,

    Excellent analysis as Usual. I would love to see them put some of that money to use for Hamels next year and dependant on hsi health this year, I might be amenable to offering Youk a 3 year deal at around 24mm, to avoid the one year 13mm option. That way if Middlebrooks doesnt work out you buy time for Boegarts and if he does, a reasonable 3 year deal makes Youk easily tradeable. One question, If Dice comes back mid year and flourishes under Bobby V would you consider resigning him?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    This thread makes it sound like Ortiz cannot play the filed at all. He's actually not a bad 1B. No range it's true, but in a pinch he can get the job done.
    Granted, he won't be playing any 1B as long as Agon and Youk are healthy, but he could spot him once in a while for rest.
    1B is not as critical for defense.
     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]I think his numbers will decline, but not much.  I just dont see him getting a two year deal after this season from any team.  Especially not the price he wants which is 12-14 a season. 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Sorry to shorten your post.  Just want to add that Ortiz is going to face a harsh reality after this year.  I think its safe to say that it was a mistake offering Ortiz arbitration.  We wound up paying him 2x market value because of it.

    We dont make that mistake next year.  Next year it will be the market and not an arbitrar that sets his price tag.  It really doesnt matter what he wants.  The market is VERY unfriendly to aging DH's. I think that if he bats .280 with 25 homeruns, the Sox resign him for either 1 yr 8 million or 2 yrs 13 million.  Im fine with that.

    He may choose to retire though.


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot : Sorry to shorten your post.  Just want to add that Ortiz is going to face a harsh reality after this year.  I think its safe to say that it was a mistake offering Ortiz arbitration.  We wound up paying him 2x market value because of it. We dont make that mistake next year.  Next year it will be the market and not an arbitrar that sets his price tag.  It really doesnt matter what he wants.  The market is VERY unfriendly to aging DH's. I think that if he bats .280 with 25 homeruns, the Sox resign him for either 1 yr 8 million or 2 yrs 13 million.  Im fine with that. He may choose to retire though.
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]

    The only reason Sox offered him arb this offseason is to get draft pick if he signs elsewhere.  Not that Ortiz worth all that money.  Sox believed Ortiz would decline and test the market but this year's DH market was very bad.  Smart Ortiz quickly sensed and took the arb.  Nothing wrong with offering him Arb IMO.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    I think his numbers will decline, but not much.  I just dont see him getting a two year deal after this season from any team.  Especially not the price he wants which is 12-14 a season. 
    Posted by moonslav59


    Sorry to shorten your post.  Just want to add that Ortiz is going to face a harsh reality after this year.  I think its safe to say that it was a mistake offering Ortiz arbitration.  We wound up paying him 2x market value because of it.

    We dont make that mistake next year.  Next year it will be the market and not an arbitrar that sets his price tag.  It really doesnt matter what he wants.  The market is VERY unfriendly to aging DH's. I think that if he bats .280 with 25 homeruns, the Sox resign him for either 1 yr 8 million or 2 yrs 13 million.  Im fine with that.

    He may choose to retire though.

    You do know I didn't write what you pasted from my post, right? That was part of the post I was responding to.

    I totally agree the arb offer was a mistake, but I understand why they did it. 

    I totally agree that he will not be offered arb next year, even if he hit 50 HRs. He will walk, retire, or settle for much less for whatever team offers him the most, which could be us.

    I think tomnev's point makes more sense. If Youk has a good year, gets a chance to DH a little this year, and agrees to DH for us in years to come, I'd say offer him a 3 year deal ($24M) instead of the $13M option for 2013. He may not take it, but it would lessen our 2013 cap number and give us a DH who can play 2 positions. This year may help us get a better overall picture of 2013. Alot can change before then and now, but I think we will have more flexibility next winter, but I'm not giving up on this year at all.


     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    This thread makes it sound like Ortiz cannot play the filed at all. He's actually not a bad 1B. No range it's true, but in a pinch he can get the job done.
    Granted, he won't be playing any 1B as long as Agon and Youk are healthy, but he could spot him once in a while for rest.
    1B is not as critical for defense.

    The problem is when we play 6 or 9 straight games in NL parks, what do we do with Papi and AGon? What if if make the WS and have to bench Papi in 3 or 4 of 7 games? Next year, we will probably play even more games at NL parks. 

    Couple this serious issue with the fact that rotating several positional players through the DH slot would keep everyone fresh, allow them more PAs than a normal day off resting schedule, and in theory, lessen the chances of injuries.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from antiqueman1. Show antiqueman1's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]I'd only consider year-to-year at this point.  Even then, we're massively overpaying for his expected 2012 production so unless the price tag comes down I'm not interested. Also, his (increasing) inability to play a position hamstrings him, and the team, not just in the interleague games but intraleague too.
    Posted by Chilliwings[/QUOTE]

    Spot on Chill. I might even consider letting him walk to see if he can get that kind of money elsewhere. Considering Damon, Matsui, and Vlad Guerrero are still unsigned. Those guys could have fit the bill for a third of Papi overpriced salary, but only Damon can still play the field. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from davidap. Show davidap's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    Ortiz hits for more power than Damon, Matsui or Guerrero at this juncture of their respective careers.

    It'll be tough for the Red Sox to let Ortiz walk after this season, if he performs at a level comparable to 2011. Ortiz has meant so much to this franchise. It would be very cold to let him go, especially if he's still a good hitter. The backlash by a majority of fans would be enormous. This wouldn't be a Varitek or Wakefield situation. 37 isn't 40 (Varitek) or 45 (Wakefield), and in this hypothetical, Ortiz continues to produce at a high level. I think the Red Sox would be obligated to find a way to keep him, as long as the dollars remained reasonable. Loyalty should mean something in this game, especially to someone like Ortiz, and particularly when the player in question still performs well. I understand all the arguments for severing ties no matter what he does this year, but realistically, it won't be easy to move on from him. I wouldn't be surprised if Henry forces Cherington to keep Ortiz around in some capacity, even though it won't be an ideal situation with the anticipated increase in interleague play.

    There are several other relevant variables:

    1. We don't know for sure whether Middlebrooks will progress to the point where he can take over at third base. Even if he does, he might be more useful as trade bait for a starting pitcher, outfielder, or shortstop (if Iglesias fails).

    2. Lavarnway might become the everyday catcher, replacing Saltalamacchia by this time next year, if not sooner. That would leave the DH spot open.

    3. Depending on the situation, Youkilis might be the player who gets cut or traded. That would also leave DH available to Ortiz.

    4. Cost matters. If Youkilis is effective and Ortiz struggles, maybe Ortiz would be amenable to returning as little more than a part-time DH/pinch-hitter. If it's the other way around, maybe the Red Sox decline their option on Youkilis and bring him back in a reduced role at a lower salary. We don't know who will cost what, or the scope of the role demanded.

    5. We don't know what Ortiz will want. I think there will always be a place for a reasonably effective Ortiz on the 25-man roster if he's humble enough to accept a more marginal, post-age 40 Jim Thome-type role.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    In Response to Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot:
    [QUOTE]This thread makes it sound like Ortiz cannot play the filed at all. He's actually not a bad 1B. No range it's true, but in a pinch he can get the job done. Granted, he won't be playing any 1B as long as Agon and Youk are healthy, but he could spot him once in a while for rest. 1B is not as critical for defense. The problem is when we play 6 or 9 straight games in NL parks, what do we do with Papi and AGon? What if if make the WS and have to bench Papi in 3 or 4 of 7 games? Next year, we will probably play even more games at NL parks.  Couple this serious issue with the fact that rotating several positional players through the DH slot would keep everyone fresh, allow them more PAs than a normal day off resting schedule, and in theory, lessen the chances of injuries.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I haven't looked at the schedule but with the leagues now 15 teams each, is that going to happen, since there will be interleague everyday?
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: David Ortiz and the future at DH spot

    Can we at least have 1 spring training game before we start pondering next years off-season moves?  Is that really too much to ask?
     
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