Deadline Sellers?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    You can't explain it away by saying " It is hard to repeat " or " Sometime it works, sometimes it doesn't."

    Maybe not, but you can't always blame the GM, when players don't hit when it counts either.

    The budget was tight this year. Next year it is now. Let's see how Ben does with an open book to work with.

    Sox4ever

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from chickenandboose. Show chickenandboose's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    Smart move signing Drew.... Trade him to the Tigers at the deadline for something worth wild! Good job Benny old chap.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to chickenandboose's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Smart move signing Drew.... Trade him to the Tigers at the deadline for something worth wild! Good job Benny old chap. [/QUOTE]

    Too little- too late. It does seem like a waste of money and a roster spot at this time.

    A trade could be a good option.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    I dont care if they waste money now, but they should have " wasted " it last winter.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    Cellar dwellers and deadline sellers. Can somebody put some music to that?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    The Sox players that will be free agents after this year are:


    Lester, Uehara, AJ P, Gomes, Drew, Miller, Capuano, Badenhop, Ross & Sizemore


    Once Vic, Doubront and Napoli return from the DL, we should look to do this:


    Vic returns- trade or release Sizemore


    Napoli returns- trade Andrew Miller


    Doubront- send to AAA for rehab or to stay


    June to trade deadline:


    Look to trade: Lester, Uehara, AJ P, Gomes, Drew, Miller, Capuano, Badenhop & Ross for the best prospects we can get.


    Bring up: Vazquez, Cecchini, Corey Brown, hassan, Lava or Butler and Webster, de la Rosa, Britton and maybe Barnes or Ranaudo.


    Possibly send Betts, Shaw, Coyle, Marrero,  Ramos, Owens to AAA.


    Deadline: consider trading Victorino or Napoli


     


     


    Sox4ever

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moon u get more an more boring by the sentence..... we could run a hot knife thru butter with all your Glory Number posts Dec-May.....  you simply have no opinion unless you read it somewhere's and cut/paste the info. [/QUOTE]


    1) I rarely cut and paste numbers. Most numbers I post support an opinion I had before I even looked for numbers, or in response to somebody saying something like "Ellsbury was our 3rd best hitter last year", and I use numbers to show that he was, at best, our 4th best hitter.

    2) I played baseball for over 20 years of my life. I am not all about numbers. I understand the nuances and skills not captured by numbers or metrics.

    3) I have voice thousands of opinions over the years.

    4) My last post on this thread had no numbers in it and gave a clear opinion of mine. Did you bother to read it?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    moon u get more an more boring by the sentence..... we could run a hot knife thru butter with all your Glory Number posts Dec-May.....  you simply have no opinion unless you read it somewhere's and cut/paste the info. [/QUOTE]


    1) I rarely cut and paste numbers. Most numbers I post support an opinion I had before I even looked for numbers, or in response to somebody saying something like "Ellsbury was our 3rd best hitter last year", and I use numbers to show that he was, at best, our 4th best hitter.

    2) I played baseball for over 20 years of my life. I am not all about numbers. I understand the nuances and skills not captured by numbers or metrics.

    3) I have voice thousands of opinions over the years.

    4) My last post on this thread had no numbers in it and gave a clear opinion of mine. Did you bother to read it?

    [/QUOTE]

    Ignore him Moon. Rigatoni is on a mission this morning. I appreciate your posts here because they are generally supported by data. Not that I would ever admit to agreeing with Breidey, but not all opinions are created equal. Those supported by data are more valid....IMO.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    What would Drews value be????

    No team wanted to give up a pick for Drew so you are not going to get that kind of value for Drew. 

    What kind of prospect is a #1 pick worth?  It's not a top ten pick because they are protected.   A draft pick carries a much larger level of uncertainty than a top prospect in AA/AAA so you aren't going to get a top 100 prospect for Drew.  You might get a good B level prospect and that is a high that they can attain if the market is there at the deadline.  With more teams competing there should be more buyers, making for better deals for sellers so that may help out Drews value a bit but that still doesn't make his value all too great.  His ceiling has been set.

    Drew could be in a package, but I'd expect very little for him alone.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What would Drews value be????

    No team wanted to give up a pick for Drew so you are not going to get that kind of value for Drew. 

    What kind of prospect is a #1 pick worth?  It's not a top ten pick because they are protected.   A draft pick carries a much larger level of uncertainty than a top prospect in AA/AAA so you aren't going to get a top 100 prospect for Drew.  You might get a good B level prospect and that is a high that they can attain if the market is there at the deadline.  With more teams competing there should be more buyers, making for better deals for sellers so that may help out Drews value a bit but that still doesn't make his value all too great.  His ceiling has been set.

    Drew could be in a package, but I'd expect very little for him alone.[/QUOTE]


    Agreed. A mid level prospect could end up being a plus or be part of a larger package later on.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    Updated:

    Assuming all our free agents to be bolt, and no free agents are signed (not going to happen) this is what we are left with for 2015:


    SP: Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront,de la Rosa,  Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster (or Owens)


    RP: Mujica, Tazawa, Workman, Britton, A Wilson (and a starter from above: Webster?)


    C: Vazquez & Butler (or Lava or Swihart)


    DH: Ortiz


    1B: Napoli & Carp


    2B: Pedroia


    3B: Middlebrooks & Cecchini


    SS: Bogaerts (3B?)& Marrero (or Herrera or Holt)


    LF: Nava & Hassan (or Cecchini)

     

    CF: JBJ & Betts (Wlkerson?)


    RF: Victorino (H Ramos/Brentz?)

     

    So, basically, it starts with Lester: extend him or trade him. We'll gte more in trade than we will with a comp draft pick. Same with Uehara. Both could bring us some very very good young players who ahve more professional experience than comp picks have.

    We can look to trade AJ P, Peavy, Drew, Gomes, Ross, Sizemore, Miller, Capuano and Badenhop. 

    I doubt we'd get much for Mujica, Middy, Vic, Nava, Carp, and a couple others, so as much as their stock is low right now, they offer more hope than a mid-level prospect they might fetch us.

    This what we could have going forward:

    It helps having Lackey play at the minimum. If we keep Napoli, Victorino and Buchholtz for 2015, we'll still have a lot of money to spend on filling the holes that young players can't all fill. Cots has us at $78M next year, but I'm not sure what the luxury limit number is. My guess is we may have close to $100M to spend, and if we can find a few good mid level FAs that worked out like Vic and Naps last year, we should be able to get 1 or 2 big named free agents to fill the shoes of Lester and Uehara or a hole a struggling prospects has opened up. Here's another look with adding $95M in free agents....

    SP: ________ ($25M/yr FA), ________ ($20M FA), Lackey, 2 from: Buchholz, Doubront, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, de la Rosa, or Webster

    RP: ________ ($12M FA), _________ ($3M FA), Mujica, Tazawa, Workman, 2 from: SP not in rotation (see above), Britton, or A Wilson

    C: ________ ($5M vet FA) & Vazquez or Butler (or Lava or Swihart)

    DH: Ortiz

    1B: Napoli & Carp

    2B: Pedroia

    3B: Bogaerts (SS?) & Middlebrooks or Cecchini

    SS: __________ ($8M FA) & Marrero , Herrera or Holt

    LF: ___________ ($22M Big bopper clean-up hitter) & Nava, Hassan or Cechini

    CF: JBJ & Betts

    RF: Victorino (JBJ)  Hassan or H Ramos 

     

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    The Red Sox will be sellers at the trade deadline, Peavy will go, as well as Gomes, Victorino and Nava. Although they will not get much for these guys. The Red Sox team is in trouble and the press will not put up with Larry Luchinno doing nothing at the winter meetings this December like he did in 2013.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to AL34's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    The Red Sox will be sellers at the trade deadline, Peavy will go, as well as Gomes, Victorino and Nava. Although they will not get much for these guys. The Red Sox team is in trouble and the press will not put up with Larry Luchinno doing nothing at the winter meetings this December like he did in 2013.


    If someone wants AJ P, then him too, right?


     


    So, if we are packing it in at the deadline, why not get a good return for Uehara?


     


    Why not find out what Lester's bottom line is and either extend or deal him for 2-3 prospects?


     


    The prospects we get for these two could then be kept of flipped (with our own added) for a guy like Stanton.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I hate to even think about it, and even if we are 15 games behind by the deadline, I'm not sure Ben would ever push the total reboot button. Red Sox history has very few instances of unloading high-priced players and/or free agents to be, but there are a few from recent (AGon, Crawford & Beckett) to way back (Slocumb and Wells are two that come to mind).

     

    We have a great farm team on paper already, but trading away a few pieces to desperate GMs still in the race at the deadline could really boost our long term outlook as well as beef up our list of trade assets for a winter blockbuster or two.

     

    Here's a list of high-priced or free agents to be on our current roster:

     

    Pedroia: $110M/8 (Not going to be traded.)

     

    Buchholz: $7.7M then $12M plus 2 team options (Toughest call to make)

     

    Ortiz $16M then $16M and 2 club options (not likely to be traded)

     

    Napoli $16M then $16M in '15 (not likely to be traded)

     

    Victorino $13M then $13M (not likely to be traded, unless we view 2015 as a near lost cause too)

     

    Mujica $4.75M then $4.75M: do it, even if for a stretch of a prospect

     

    Breslow $3.8M then $4M team option: do it

     

    Lackey $15.25M then Min wage next year (not likely to be traded, unless we view 2015 as a near lost cause too)

     

    Lester $13M then FA: Blue chip trade candidate (if we can't extend...)

     

    Uehara: $4.25M then FA: Blue chipper (at his age, should we extend?)

     

    Peavy $14.5M then FA: If he is doing well, we could get a nice return here.

     

    Pierzynski $7.5M: do it, even if for a stretch of a prospect

     

    D Ross $3.1M: do it, even if for a low-level prospect

     

    J Gomes $5M: do it, even if for a stretch of a prospect

     

    Capuano $2.25M: do it, even if for a stretch of a prospect

     

    Badenhop $2.1M, Miller $1.9M and Sizemore $750K + bonues will all be FAs after this year: do it, even if for a stretch of a prospect

     

    I would not look to trade arb players, but here are some that other teams may want: Carp $1.4M + 2 arbs, Herrera $1.3M + 1 arb, Tazawa $1.3M + 2 arbs (I would not trade Taz), Doubront $586K + 3 arbs (stock not high enough now- better to keep and pray), Nava $556K + 3 arbs (doubtful we get a nice enough return to give up on him).

     

    We will not trade all these guys. I'd be surprised if we trade away 1 or 2 for prospects, but the theory is sound, assuming we are out of it by July or the waiver-wire deadline in August.

     

    Assuming all our free agents to be bolt, and no free agents are signed (not going to happen) this is what we are left with for 2015:

     

    SP: Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, Barnes, Ranaudo (or Owens)

     

    RP: Mujica, Tazawa, Workman, Britton, de la Rosa, Webster, A Wilson

     

    C: Vazquez & Butler (or Lava or Swihart)

     

    DH: Ortiz

     

    1B: Napoli  & Carp

     

    2B: Pedroia

     

    3B: Middlebrooks & Cecchini

     

    SS: Bogaerts (3B?)& Marrero (or Herrera or Holt)

     

    LF: Nava & Hassan (or Brentz)

     

    CF: JBJ (Wlkerson?)

     

    RF: Victorino (H Ramos?)

     

     

     

    Lots of holes, lots of young players with potential, lots of question marks, but also lots of promise.

     

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    Moon - Look at your outfield. The team will stink again if that is what it is.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    They aren't buyers. Ben C threw away $10M on Drew. The good news is he won't be spending money at

    the trading deadline. Red Sox will be 12-15 GB.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    Stanton is a name we hear so often on these threads. He is certainly one of the most coveted players in the game. Let me ask you all this : When he becomes a free agent, what makes you think we will be able to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels and maybe a couple of others to sign him to a big money, long term contract?  Even if the Marlins made him available, would you trade several of your top prospects only to later watch Stanton leave for the highest bidder?  Honestly, do you think that he is not on other team's radar as well? 

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    LF: Nava & Hassan (or Brentz)

     

    CF: JBJ (Wlkerson?)

     

    RF: Victorino (H Ramos?)

    Looks like another bridge year. We will not make the playoffs with this OF.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sobchack. Show Sobchack's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    It's more grim if one looks at potential FAs for 2015.  Not much out there. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to Sobchack's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's more grim if one looks at potential FAs for 2015.  Not much out there. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Its best if we think of this rebuilding process as a two year plan.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    Moon - Look at your outfield. The team will stink again if that is what it is.

    You only copied the first part of my post.

    Scroll down and see how I suggested we sign a big OF bat at $22M/yr, give Bets a shot at CF and try Cecchini in LF.

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon - Look at your outfield. The team will stink again if that is what it is.

    You only copied the first part of my post.

    Scroll down and see how I suggested we sign a big OF bat at $22M/yr, give Bets a shot at CF and try Cecchini in LF.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]


    who is the "big OF Bat at @ 22 mil/yr" ?  the free agent list next year is pretty lame

    Lester and Scherzer - that's the best of the best.  Ideally, Sox would secure Lester now and make a play for Mad Max in November.  Then they can turn to their farm to save money at other openings.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Javi60. Show Javi60's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There is not a single player on the roster I would consider "safe" from being traded unless they have a no trade clause. If we could trade Lester and get Sale or Kershaw, would you do it? Its a matter of what you get in return. If you can get more in return than you give up, you make the trade, assuming the Red Sox continue to lose and become sellers at the deadline. They key is to be committed 100% to it, not half way.

    WE ARE ALL JUST POPPYSEEDS IN THE BAKERY OF LIFE

    [/QUOTE]

    I almost agree with all Moon said  and other  commentaries above...at this moment I believe Bogaert is only untouchable and five  or six guys in the farm... Why? ...because we will not be contending before 2016... Even Farrell is expendable ( of whom since last year I have been  calling an awful in-game manager)... Therefore the key point is get rid of the trash asp, and move up the new crop and give them a big league seasoning thru this and next year...if can trade  talent for talent, great... Only exceptions inmo would be jbj and lester...they have a long way to go, wish you could see them with sox in 2016...( i dont expect to live that long, one of the reasons a repeat was very dear to me)...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    Lots of interesting comments, I'll wait till I make any comments. 50+ days a lot can happen. One thing I can say, if I see the Sox not hustling or thinking, or fighting. Then I'm with anything.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Deadline Sellers?

    In response to crazy-world-of-troybrown's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Lots of interesting comments, I'll wait till I make any comments. 50+ days a lot can happen. One thing I can say, if I see the Sox not hustling or thinking, or fighting. Then I'm with anything.

    [/QUOTE]


    The thing that irks me the most is Sizemore in the line up every night.  If we don't have a kid with a true future who can fill that slot then what is going on in our farm system?  Ditto w/ Mejica.  At least Buck is on the DL.  Cut the dead weight. 

     
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