Denard trade, Ellsbury value

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    Minnesota's trade of centerfielder Denard Span to Washington for pitching prospect Alex Meyer could shed light on the current trade value of Jacoby Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury, who is a few months older than Span, has been valued at 18.7 WAR* in 581 career games while Span has been valued at 15.9 WAR in 589 career games. Ellsbury got 9.4 of his WAR in 2011 while Span has been more consistent.

    Ellsbury remains under his team's control for only one more year at a projected salary of $8.1 millon. Span is under contract for $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014 with a $9 million team option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2015.

    Meyer, a 22-year-old righthander taken with the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, posted good numbers between A and High A last season:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com

    John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranked Meyer No. 28 on his preliminary list of Top 50 pitching prospects:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs. Baseball Reference gives Span a 16.5-14.4 edge in career WAR.

    I wish I could edit the thread title to "Denard Span trade, Ellsbury value"

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Minnesota's trade of centerfielder Denard Span to Washington for pitching prospect Alex Meyer could shed light on the current trade value of Jacoby Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury, who is a few months older than Span, has been valued at 18.7 WAR* in 581 career games while Span has been valued at 15.9 WAR in 589 career games. Ellsbury got 9.4 of his WAR in 2011 while Span has been more consistent.

    Ellsbury remains under his team's control for only one more year at a projected salary of $8.1 millon. Span is under contract for $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014 with a $9 million team option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2015.

    Meyer, a 22-year-old righthander taken with the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, posted good numbers between A and High A last season:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com

    John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranked Meyer No. 28 on his preliminary list of Top 50 pitching prospects:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs. Baseball Reference gives Span a 16.5-14.4 edge in career WAR.

    I wish I could edit the thread title to "Denard Span trade, Ellsbury value"




    They basically gave up someone very similar to Matt Barnes for Span. As we both know there are other stats that would suggest Ellsbury is much better than Span but he would be hurt by the upcoming FA since he wouldn't sign a contract if traded.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Minnesota's trade of centerfielder Denard Span to Washington for pitching prospect Alex Meyer could shed light on the current trade value of Jacoby Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury, who is a few months older than Span, has been valued at 18.7 WAR* in 581 career games while Span has been valued at 15.9 WAR in 589 career games. Ellsbury got 9.4 of his WAR in 2011 while Span has been more consistent.

    Ellsbury remains under his team's control for only one more year at a projected salary of $8.1 millon. Span is under contract for $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014 with a $9 million team option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2015.

    Meyer, a 22-year-old righthander taken with the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, posted good numbers between A and High A last season:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com

    John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranked Meyer No. 28 on his preliminary list of Top 50 pitching prospects:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs. Baseball Reference gives Span a 16.5-14.4 edge in career WAR.

    I wish I could edit the thread title to "Denard Span trade, Ellsbury value"




    Sox originally drafted himout of HS, but he signed outof college with Washington a few years later...6'9 with a lot of K's...Good for the twinkies...

    If Ells has a solid year and the Sox are not in contention, he will have lots of value at the deadline for a contending team.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    They basically gave up someone very similar to Matt Barnes for Span. As we both know there are other stats that would suggest Ellsbury is much better than Span but he would be hurt by the upcoming FA since he wouldn't sign a contract if traded.


    Jacoby Ellsbury has a career OPS+ of 106, including the outlier OPS+ of 146 in 2011. Denard Span has a career OPS+ of 104 and B.J. Upton a career OPS+ of 105. In a similar number of games, Ellsbury has been successful on 81.8 percent of his 231 attempted steals while Span has been successful on 76.3 percent of his 118 attempted steals.

    One columnist contends the Nationals got a steal:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/nationals-steal-denard-span-from-twins/

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    Hill is , as usual, just trying to provoke Sox fans.  That is his consistent M.O.  

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    Seems like a reasonable analogy to me, particularly due to the longer control of Span.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    I thought the trade worked well for both sides.  Span isn't as good, but I don't think they need a star between Werth and Harper, and he has a 2+1, which is appealing.

    Meyer is a reasonable comp for Ellsbury, though I think we'd do slightly better.

    But there is no reason to trade him, unless someone is really desparate.  He is worth more to us, and is a better fit, than for any other team in BB.  What we really need is to find an Ellsbury-equivalent for RF.  A motivated player, on a one-year make-good contract, that will fetch us a qualifying offer compensation.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    I see little comparative value analysis here. 

    Ellsbury is worth more than Denard. He also has a comp draft pick likely attached to his value as he will most likely walk after 2013. That draft pick alone may be worth more than what Denard brought back in return. Ellsbury's potential to have a 2011 type year will entice some GM to make a gamble on him having a big "contract year".

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I see little comparative value analysis here. 

    Ellsbury is worth more than Denard. He also has a comp draft pick likely attached to his value as he will most likely walk after 2013. That draft pick alone may be worth more than what Denard brought back in return. Ellsbury's potential to have a 2011 type year will entice some GM to make a gamble on him having a big "contract year".




    Isn't it likely Span has a pick attached too, albeit a couple of years away?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    The supposed value of one has little to do with another's value. Why?

    Everything revolves around why Denard was traded. Was it accomplished to move others into his position or others in to other positions? You need to know why they made the trade. IMHO it was not for the prospect totally but for what moving him did for budget and on field flexibility.

    if you'll look AT&T one to compare with out all the reasons you would have to say the signing of Crawford and Agon were steals since Upton got 15 mil per year. You have to surmise that Jake will get 20 mil when he goes to FA Next year.

    Value is different from team to team and based upon needs.  If the RS have a gifted CF coming up and another team has a need for a CF then the value of what you have goes up. By the same token if you have two great corner Outfielders the value you put in CF may not be the top of the market.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I see little comparative value analysis here. 

    Ellsbury is worth more than Denard. He also has a comp draft pick likely attached to his value as he will most likely walk after 2013. That draft pick alone may be worth more than what Denard brought back in return. Ellsbury's potential to have a 2011 type year will entice some GM to make a gamble on him having a big "contract year".




    Isn't it likely Span has a pick attached too, albeit a couple of years away?



    I doubt he will be offered $15M/yr in a couple of years.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I doubt he will be offered $15M/yr in a couple of years.

    Jacoby Ellsbury is no lock to receive a qualifying offer following the 2013 season. Ellsbury has been valued in excess of $11 million in only two of his five seasons:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF#value

    Does Ellsbury get an offer if in 2013 he repeats, say, his 2009 numbers in 153 games?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from boborielly224. Show boborielly224's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Minnesota's trade of centerfielder Denard Span to Washington for pitching prospect Alex Meyer could shed light on the current trade value of Jacoby Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury, who is a few months older than Span, has been valued at 18.7 WAR* in 581 career games while Span has been valued at 15.9 WAR in 589 career games. Ellsbury got 9.4 of his WAR in 2011 while Span has been more consistent.

    Ellsbury remains under his team's control for only one more year at a projected salary of $8.1 millon. Span is under contract for $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014 with a $9 million team option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2015.

    Meyer, a 22-year-old righthander taken with the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, posted good numbers between A and High A last season:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com

    John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranked Meyer No. 28 on his preliminary list of Top 50 pitching prospects:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs. Baseball Reference gives Span a 16.5-14.4 edge in career WAR.

    I wish I could edit the thread title to "Denard Span trade, Ellsbury value"




    All I know is that the Nats outfield is looking to be one the best next season Denard Harper and Werth. I always keep my watch on the the ex expos team because after all it was my favorite national league team.

    I am just curious what the nats are going to do with Mike Morse (A) put him on 1st or trade (B) the laroche rumours will be excalating now and are the Sox willing to sign laroche and lose their draft pick.

    I am thinking that TB will trade Shields to KC and take a gamble on the prospect Myers. The rays can afford to let a starter go via trade.

    Meanwhile back on the ranch the Red Sox OF is still in stagmant water.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    I thought the trade worked well for both sides.  Span isn't as good, but I don't think they need a star between Werth and Harper, and he has a 2+1, which is appealing. Meyer is a reasonable comp for Ellsbury, though I think we'd do slightly better. But there is no reason to trade him, unless someone is really desparate. He is worth more to us, and is a better fit, than for any other team in BB.  What we really need is to find an Ellsbury-equivalent for RF.  A motivated player, on a one-year make-good contract, that will fetch us a qualifying offer compensation.


    Joebreidey makes a valid point ... again.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I doubt he will be offered $15M/yr in a couple of years.

     

    Jacoby Ellsbury is no lock to receive a qualifying offer following the 2013 season. Ellsbury has been valued in excess of $11 million in only two of his five seasons:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF#value

    Does Ellsbury get an offer if in 2013 he repeats, say, his 2009 numbers in 153 games?




    He will recieve a qualifying offer if we cant extend him...Guaranteed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    I doubt he will be offered $15M/yr in a couple of years.

     

    Jacoby Ellsbury is no lock to receive a qualifying offer following the 2013 season. Ellsbury has been valued in excess of $11 million in only two of his five seasons:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF#value

    Does Ellsbury get an offer if in 2013 he repeats, say, his 2009 numbers in 153 games?



    Probably.  It isn't an issue of whether he is worth $13.3M+, it is an issue of Ellsbury's best l/t interest.  Let's say he is merely good, as in 2009.  His OPS in 2009 was similar to BJ Upton, with more speed, less HRs, and a slightly better fielder.  Upton just got $60M/4.  Based on that, what is the least Ellsbury can get?  Using 2009, at age 30/31, it won't be less than $48M/4.  And he'll take that rather than maybe $14M/1.

    And more importantly, if he repeats 2009, the RS would ecstatic to have him accept a qualifying offer.  We can't lose with 2009.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Minnesota's trade of centerfielder Denard Span to Washington for pitching prospect Alex Meyer could shed light on the current trade value of Jacoby Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury, who is a few months older than Span, has been valued at 18.7 WAR* in 581 career games while Span has been valued at 15.9 WAR in 589 career games. Ellsbury got 9.4 of his WAR in 2011 while Span has been more consistent.

    Ellsbury remains under his team's control for only one more year at a projected salary of $8.1 millon. Span is under contract for $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014 with a $9 million team option, or $500,000 buyout, for 2015.

    Meyer, a 22-year-old righthander taken with the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, posted good numbers between A and High A last season:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=meyer-001ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com

    John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranked Meyer No. 28 on his preliminary list of Top 50 pitching prospects:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs. Baseball Reference gives Span a 16.5-14.4 edge in career WAR.

    I wish I could edit the thread title to "Denard Span trade, Ellsbury value"


    Ells value at 8.i mil is not bad for a part time player. Should see more of him this year playing for a nice fat contract. What a waste of talent.New name for ELLS ( Peanut Brittle)

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    Unless Ellsbury tanks this year, he will get a qualifying offer from the Sox, and then he will walk. It doesn't matter if he eventually signs for less per year than what the Sox offer.

    The qualifying offer next year might be $14-15M. He and Bora$$ obviously believe he is worth more, so he will refuse the Sox (or another team) offer of $15M/1. 

    Denard is not likely to be offered a qualifying offer when he becomes a FA in 2 years.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I see little comparative value analysis here. 

    Ellsbury is worth more than Denard. He also has a comp draft pick likely attached to his value as he will most likely walk after 2013. That draft pick alone may be worth more than what Denard brought back in return. Ellsbury's potential to have a 2011 type year will entice some GM to make a gamble on him having a big "contract year".




    if the new team focus is to get back to player development and homegrown talent don't you think that comp pick would be more attractive to us? so its a win-win for us either way. we get jacoby in a contract year for 2013 as we try to contend and try to resign him afterwards. if not then we get a pick and have JBJ to take his place in 2014 (if JBJ continues to develop).

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    He is worth more to us, and is a better fit, than for any other team in BB. 

     

    He is worth more to a team that is a serious 2013 contender and who values the comp pick attached after he walks after 2013.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Denard trade, Ellsbury value

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    I see little comparative value analysis here. 

    Ellsbury is worth more than Denard. He also has a comp draft pick likely attached to his value as he will most likely walk after 2013. That draft pick alone may be worth more than what Denard brought back in return. Ellsbury's potential to have a 2011 type year will entice some GM to make a gamble on him having a big "contract year".




    if the new team focus is to get back to player development and homegrown talent don't you think that comp pick would be more attractive to us? so its a win-win for us either way. we get jacoby in a contract year for 2013 as we try to contend and try to resign him afterwards. if not then we get a pick and have JBJ to take his place in 2014 (if JBJ continues to develop).



    There are other teams that are more serious 2013 contenders than we are, thus Ellsbury has more value to them... at least those that need a CF'er anyways. 

    If we package Ellsbury with a couple guys from this group and we should be able to get a player with more years of team control and or some good prospects:

    Aceves, Morales, Salty, Breslow, & Miller

    All of these will help a real contender.

     

     
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