Did Anyone Notice?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Did Anyone Notice?

    Doubront's ERA is now over 5.00. His WHIP is nearing 1.500.

    Guess what?

    We now have 5 of our top 6 starters by GS'd with ERAs over 5.00.

    Lester      5.01
    Doubrnot 5.03
    Beckett    5.23
    D Bard     5.30
    A Cook     5.35

    Even Buch is at 4.50. (Morales is at 4.14 as a starter in 9 starts)
    Dice-K is at 5.10
    Stewart 27.00

    All starters: 5.00  1.383 WHIP before tonight.

    The only 2 starters under a 1.322 WHIP are Morales and Dice-K.

    Remember how softy bashed Wake for being over 5.00. The whole starting staff is now over 5.00, but he seems to think our biggest weakness is something other than this. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Doubront should've been shut down already.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to moonslav59 comment:

    Doubront's ERA is now over 5.00. His WHIP is nearing 1.500.

    Guess what?

    We now have 5 of our top 6 starters by GS'd with ERAs over 5.00.

    Lester      5.01
    Doubrnot 5.03
    Beckett    5.23
    D Bard     5.30
    A Cook     5.35

    Even Buch is at 4.50. (Morales is at 4.14 as a starter in 9 starts)
    Dice-K is at 5.10
    Stewart 27.00

    All starters: 5.00  1.383 WHIP before tonight.

    The only 2 starters under a 1.322 WHIP are Morales and Dice-K.

    Remember how softy bashed Wake for being over 5.00. The whole starting staff is now over 5.00, but he seems to think our biggest weakness is something other than this. 



    Our staff has been a disaster moon, which you have to agree should also fall a bit on our catcher.  Cliff Lee would probably be a blessing if we regulated his innings a bit.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Doubront should've been shut down already.



    No doubt, however there is some value in continuing to run him out there every five days.

    1) The closer he gets to 180 IP the better, which sets him up for a 200 IP season next year
    2) Learning to push through the mental fatique of a full season without your best stuff...

    Caviat...as long as he doesn't hurt himself by pitching through the fatigue with bad mechanics....
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Doubront has not shown one iota of improvement all year. If anything, he has gone backwards.  Surprising that many are still counting on him for next year. Our pitching continues to be horrendous.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Doubront has not shown one iota of improvement all year. If anything, he has gone backwards.  Surprising that many are still counting on him for next year. Our pitching continues to be horrendous.



    You need to look at the stats then.  Thru his first 102 IPs, he was 10-4 with a 4.24 and a 99/38 K/W.  You don't see that as an improvement?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Doubront should've been shut down already.





    Last winter and spring I was saying we needed a #1 or good #2 slot starter added to our team to have a legitimate shot at a ring. I was wrong: we needed two.

    One of the reasons I called for the addition was that I felt both Doubront and Bard could not give us over 25 starts or 140 IP. Doubront is just over 130 now. They should have given him a break mid-season, but they should sit him down the rest of the way or risk messing him up.

    I hear posters here already pencilling him in as a solid #3-4 starter. I like this kid's potential, but I am not so sure he can even be a capable #5.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Doubront has not shown one iota of improvement all year. If anything, he has gone backwards.  Surprising that many are still counting on him for next year. Our pitching continues to be horrendous.



    You need to look at the stats then.  Thru his first 102 IPs, he was 10-4 with a 4.24 and a 99/38 K/W.  You don't see that as an improvement?

    No. He has not pitched well. He had a lot of run support early. He has continually struggled with his command. High pitch counts. Too many base runners. Too little composure. Too many excuses being made for this guy. He has been a disappointment. As has most of this team.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Doubront has not shown one iota of improvement all year. If anything, he has gone backwards.  Surprising that many are still counting on him for next year. Our pitching continues to be horrendous.



    You need to look at the stats then.  Thru his first 102 IPs, he was 10-4 with a 4.24 and a 99/38 K/W.  You don't see that as an improvement?

    No. He has not pitched well. He had a lot of run support early. He has continually struggled with his command. High pitch counts. Too many base runners. Too little composure. Too many excuses being made for this guy. He has been a disappointment. As has most of this team.

     



    Let's say, for example, that he didn't wear down after his first 102 IPs.  Are you saying that you wouldn't take a 4.24 ERA from this guy next year?  That's a pretty good start for a rookie.

    Among rookie pitchers, where do you think he ranks?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Our staff has been a disaster moon, which you have to agree should also fall a bit on our catcher.  Cliff Lee would probably be a blessing if we regulated his innings a bit.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    The season started off badly. Salty CERA: over 7.20 after his first 12 games caught, however, it has been about 4.30 since. 

    While I am usually big on placing blame and credit on how our catcher handles our staff, I think this year had some serious issues the catcher had nothing to do with from the start.

    1) Beckett & Lester lost velocity.
    2) Our closer, Bailey was out from day 1.
    3) Aceves moved from a highly successful role.
    4) Bard moved from a highly successful role.
    5) Too much faith put in the hands of Doubront, Cook, Padilla, and the Dice-K return.
    6) Buch had early struggles and an injury.



    Do I think our catchers could have done better with the direction of our staff? 

    Yes.

    However, I have seen improvement with Salty (since April 25th), even as our staff has been traded away, moved around out of comfort role, and had injuriez occur.
     
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to moonslav59s comment:

    Doubronts ERA is now over 5.00. His WHIP is nearing 1.500.

    Guess what?

    We now have 5 of our top 6 starters by GS'd with ERAs over 5.00.

    Lester      5.01
    Doubrnot 5.03
    Beckett    5.23
    D Bard     5.30
    A Cook     5.35

    Even Buch is at 4.50. (Morales is at 4.14 as a starter in 9 starts)
    Dice-K is at 5.10
    Stewart 27.00

    All starters: 5.00  1.383 WHIP before tonight.

    The only 2 starters under a 1.322 WHIP are Morales and Dice-K.

    Remember how softy bashed Wake for being over 5.00. The whole starting staff is now over 5.00, but he seems to think our biggest weakness is something other than this. 


    Moon,

    If I remeber correctly Wake is now retired and with that perhaps you and Softy both can stop refering to one anothers stance on his value and performance as means to qualify your credibility as evaluators of pitching performances of the current player in MLB baseball...

    In the end ERA is a stat that today has less relevance given that starting pitchers are no longer ask to pitch complete games...In todays game with the advent of the set-up and clsoers. Starting pitchers today are measured by the frequency in which they register a quality start by giving thier team 6 inning allowing 3 runs or less...with 7 full the new standard for top of the rotation pitchers...

    So with said...
    Top of the rotation: 80% QS ratio
    3.00 ERA equates to 2.00 runs allowed through 6

    Solid #2; 70% QS ratio
    3.50 ERA equates to 2.33 runs allowed through 6

    Solid #3; 60% QS ratio
    4.00 ERA equates to 2.66 runs allowed through 6

    Solid #4 & 5; 50% QS Ratio
    4.50 ERA equates to 3.00 runs allowed through 6

    Spot starters and organizational depth;
    5.00 ERA equates to 3.33 runs allowed through 6
    5.50 ERA equates to 3.66 runs allowed through 6

    Candidates for new role...or perhaps its time to consider a new profession..
    6.00 ERA equates to 4.00 runs allowed through 6



     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Beckett 6/1/3 9 Ks last night....yeah, he lost it.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Also, is it any wonder that BV's pitching coach has done nothing to help the current staff, but that McClure actually made a difference with both Clay and Doubront...no? Well, maybe  McClure wasn't worth being fired for...But keep the manager who said this gem; "That's Alfredo being Alfredo and Pedroia being a baseball player." Sounds like he just said Aceves is a joke in comparison to Dustin. Pathetic manager, fire the SOB...fire him 4 months ago like I said instead of watching this Circus Act of minor leaguers...
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    Doubront has not shown one iota of improvement all year. If anything, he has gone backwards.  Surprising that many are still counting on him for next year. Our pitching continues to be horrendous.



    You need to look at the stats then.  Thru his first 102 IPs, he was 10-4 with a 4.24 and a 99/38 K/W.  You don't see that as an improvement?

    No. He has not pitched well. He had a lot of run support early. He has continually struggled with his command. High pitch counts. Too many base runners. Too little composure. Too many excuses being made for this guy. He has been a disappointment. As has most of this team.

     



    Let's say, for example, that he didn't wear down after his first 102 IPs.  Are you saying that you wouldn't take a 4.24 ERA from this guy next year?  That's a pretty good start for a rookie.

    Among rookie pitchers, where do you think he ranks?

    I just don't think that he is as good as we thought he was.  I have watched every one of his starts. I have not seen any improvement as a starter. If you want to pick out a magic number like 102 IP, and say that he wore down after that , go ahead.  Next year , there will be another excuse.  I'm just going by what I see. Doubront , like the rest of them , has disappointed. 

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In terms of our top-8 PAs, here are the OPSa splits for Shoppach/Salry

    Lester        .638/.868
    Doubront   .769/.809
    Buchholz    .622/.922
    Cook          .762/.807
    Beckett      .755/.708
    Morales      .800/.611
    Aceves       .632/.715
    Bard           .793/.839

    Except for Beckett, where the difference is small, and Morales, where the IPs are small, Shoppach has a material edge.

    In 2011, Shoppach has an edge of 90 OPSa points.
    In 2011, Varitek had an edge of 84 OPSa points.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Didn't you know that Shoppach was one of the cancers that BV couldn't control? LMFAO...another guy sent away for no reason.
     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to moonslav59s comment:

    Doubronts ERA is now over 5.00. His WHIP is nearing 1.500.

    Guess what?

    We now have 5 of our top 6 starters by GS'd with ERAs over 5.00.

    Lester      5.01
    Doubrnot 5.03
    Beckett    5.23
    D Bard     5.30
    A Cook     5.35

    Even Buch is at 4.50. (Morales is at 4.14 as a starter in 9 starts)
    Dice-K is at 5.10
    Stewart 27.00

    All starters: 5.00  1.383 WHIP before tonight.

    The only 2 starters under a 1.322 WHIP are Morales and Dice-K.

    Remember how softy bashed Wake for being over 5.00. The whole starting staff is now over 5.00, but he seems to think our biggest weakness is something other than this. 


    Moon,

    If I remeber correctly Wake is now retired and with that perhaps you and Softy both can stop refering to one anothers stance on his value and performance as means to qualify your credibility as evaluators of pitching performances of the current player in MLB baseball...

    In the end ERA is a stat that today has less relevance given that starting pitchers are no longer ask to pitch complete games...In todays game with the advent of the set-up and clsoers. Starting pitchers today are measured by the frequency in which they register a quality start by giving thier team 6 inning allowing 3 runs or less...with 7 full the new standard for top of the rotation pitchers...

    So with said...
    Top of the rotation: 80% QS ratio
    3.00 ERA equates to 2.00 runs allowed through 6

    Solid #2; 70% QS ratio
    3.50 ERA equates to 2.33 runs allowed through 6

    Solid #3; 60% QS ratio
    4.00 ERA equates to 2.66 runs allowed through 6

    Solid #4 & 5; 50% QS Ratio
    4.50 ERA equates to 3.00 runs allowed through 6

    Spot starters and organizational depth;
    5.00 ERA equates to 3.33 runs allowed through 6
    5.50 ERA equates to 3.66 runs allowed through 6

    Candidates for new role...or perhaps its time to consider a new profession..
    6.00 ERA equates to 4.00 runs allowed through 6

    ERA and WHIP are still valuable tools in judging a pitchers performance, but no one stat ever tells the whole story.I do value the QS stat, but think it needs adjustments and variations. I'd suggest something like this:

    IP          High Quality Starts   Quality Starts   Acceptable Starts  Unacceptable Starts
    4-5.1                  0 ER                       1 ER                     2 ER                     3+ ER
    5.2-6.2           0-1 ER                       2 ER                     3 ER                     4+
    7-7.2              0-2 ER                       3 ER                     4 ER                     5+ 
    8-9                 0-3 ER                       4 ER                     5 ER                      6+




     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

     

    So much for your early season predictions. However, I respect you for trying. Predicting individual seasons is very difficult. 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to nhsteven's comment:

     

    So much for your early season predictions. However, I respect you for trying. Predicting individual seasons is very difficult. 



    I was way off on many players for sure. I did say that our big 3 would not all pitch well and stay healthy. I never expected all 3  to pitch below expectations.

    I think I was right on:
    Salty and Shopp hitting 30 HRs.
    Aviles hitting and fielding as well as Scutaro.
    Ross/Sweeney platoon adding about 100+ pts to our RF OPS from 2011.
    Bard not working out as a starter.

    ...but that is about it.

    Hijole!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?


    yes
     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    ERA and WHIP are still valuable tools in judging a pitchers performance, but no one stat ever tells the whole story.I do value the QS stat, but think it needs adjustments and variations.

    I agree.  What I like about the QS stat is that it gives you a good indication about whether pitchers are getting the job done, in the most basic sense.  Did the pitcher get (fairly) deep into the game, and did he give his team a chance to win.  Of course you would like more than the minimum standard of a QS out of your top of the rotation guys, but I feel like for the most part, if a pitcher has a QS, he has done his job for that game, especially if the team has a good offense, which the Red Sox usually do.

    Our starters have given us QS in 45% of their starts, 3rd from the bottom in the AL, above only KC and MN.  League average is 51% and the league best is Oakland at 57%. 
     
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