Did Anyone Notice?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:

    There is a difference in an ERA over one year and over two years, in your plea to make Wakefield appear to be worth that 2012 contract you wanted offered to him.

    Buch has done fine.

    Lester had had an off year, but I expect that will change with Beckett's departure.

    Doubrant was quite good until he started getting up in total innings, where he was in uncharted territory. He should have long since been shut down when a team that had a pitifully inconsistent offense in an offensive park and division and league couldn't deliver.

    The other cast of characters is not an issue, as it is the typical bottom of the rotation come and go profiles that is a part of modern baseball.

    Bean is correct on the issue being quality starts, in regards to a one season sample size, measured in the context of top, middle and bottom rotation roles. 



    When I made the point last winter that we needed a top of the rotation starter, the reasons I gave were:

    1) Our big 3 would not all do well. You said, "if they don't do well, we have no shot, and we can't plan on one failing."
    2) Moving Bard to starter was a mistake. You loved the idea and still think Bard pitched "decently".
    3) We could not count on Bard & Doubront to start 25+ games or give us 140+ IP. Now, you seem to agree when you disagreed this past winter. No surprise there.
    4) We could not count on Dice-K to take over when Bard and Doubront need to rested.

    Yes, Buch has done fine recently, but he started off very poorly as the team fell behind. He was still over a 6.00 ERA on June 5th and a 5.00 ERA on July 23rd. By the time he finally got his act together, we were all but out of it and contemplating trading away our team.

     He also still has his highest ERA since 2008, his highest WHIP since 2009, and a 48% quality start number you are now championing. It was 56% and 68% in 2009 and 2010. 

    The point I was making is that it was you who set the 5.00 ERA as the be-all end all stat for starting pitchers. Now, as always, you want to move the goalpost to quality starts, amazingly the stat I tried to use to justify Wake's continued service to this team after the 2008 season....  60% QS in 2008 and 57% in 2009. Even his 47% QS rate in 2010 is as good as Buch's this year (48%). Besides, I wanted Wake offered a deal that would make him our 6th starter this year, so stop acting like I wanted him for more than that. Even last year, you neglect to remember, I wanted him benched or rested after he made 14 starts. I knew his limitations then, and I was actually happy with our choices of Doubront as our #5 (on my projections thread, I had him doing very well in 120-140 IP) and Cook, Padilla, Mortensen,and Morales as our possible 6-7 starters this year. Due to the collapse of Bard, and the failures and injuries to others, we ended up needing these guys way more than we should have.  Full circle to my original point: we needed a top line starter last winter, so Lester, Buch and Beckett would have been pushed down to the 2-3-4 slots, and we could have afforded to have one get hurt or have an off season, and maybe even 2, and still have a chance as long as one of the two rebounded by playoff time.

    5 of our top starters with a 5.00 ERA.
    Only Lester with a better than 50% QS rate (52%) - your new stat of choice.
    Beck & Buch at 48%
    Doub & Cook at 46%
    Morales & Bard at under 33%
    This is and will continue to be our biggest weakness. trying to patch it up with $1M offers to journeymen starters who will sign elsewhere for $3-4M is not a viable plan.

    We missed the playoffs last year and had...
    Beckett & Lester at 67 & 61% QS rates and the rest under 43%. How could we not see what was needed?

    In 2007, we had Beckett at 67%, Schill at 58%, Dice-K at 56%, and Wake at 48%. Even our 6th starter (Lester) was at 45%. 

    If we don't address this issue over the next year or two, we are going nowhere. 

    Losing Beckett is not going to improve Lester or the staff. They will have to do it on their own with the help of some major additions between now and 2014. Barnes may be one, but we need 2-3.


     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from prknsdnld. Show prknsdnld's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Fire Valentine now. This is all his fault.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from prknsdnld. Show prknsdnld's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to pinstripezac's comment:

    someone needs to ask Doubront & lester

    if they want to be umpires or pitchers

    and to focus on that

    that said there's no reason not to think

    they both aren't  keepers 

    and yes doubront should of been shut down by now


      Shut down Cook and the rest, too.
     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    someone needs to ask Doubront & lester

    if they want to be umpires or pitchers

    Well in that case, someone should ask Jeter if if he wants to be an umpire or a batter.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    I want to know what Tazawa has to do to get a start - ERA under 2, WHIP barely over 1.2, and we're trotting out guys in Cook and Dice-K who have no purpose beyond this season.  Tazawa and Doubront were team-mates in Portland before his TJ surgery, and Tazawa was by far the better pitcher.  

    How about giving Andrew Miller a few starts?  Or Aceves?  At least give us something interesting and potentially impactful to the future to watch.


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to slomag's comment:

    I want to know what Tazawa has to do to get a start - ERA under 2, WHIP barely over 1.2, and we're trotting out guys in Cook and Dice-K who have no purpose beyond this season.  Tazawa and Doubront were team-mates in Portland before his TJ surgery, and Tazawa was by far the better pitcher.  

    How about giving Andrew Miller a few starts?  Or Aceves?  At least give us something interesting and potentially impactful to the future to watch.

    Absolutely.  Why stay with a losing hand ?  Try something different.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to slomag's comment:

    I want to know what Tazawa has to do to get a start - ERA under 2, WHIP barely over 1.2, and we're trotting out guys in Cook and Dice-K who have no purpose beyond this season.  Tazawa and Doubront were team-mates in Portland before his TJ surgery, and Tazawa was by far the better pitcher.  

    How about giving Andrew Miller a few starts?  Or Aceves?  At least give us something interesting and potentially impactful to the future to watch.



    I don't think Miller is going back to starting any time soon, but I've been asking about Tazawa for a while now.
     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Yah we noticed moon, and we heard the giant sucking sound.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    I would agree that with neither Lester nor Beckett stepping up at the beginning of the year that the Sox have not had a true number one type starter.

    Guys have bad years and Lester had a very uncharacteristic off year.  Beckett was far less surprising to me.  Buchholz has been a decent #3 for most of the year, but of course, that has not been good enough by itself.

    Doubront has had a decent season for a young guy, but nothing more than you might expect from a #5 guy in a decent rotation.  He has pitched well enough for most of the season to give his team a good chance to win in most of his starts.  Admittedly, he has floundered in his last 5 starts, but that is part of being a #5 starter.

    The other guys who have made starts were all just kind of shots in the dark type guys.  Cook had a couple of great starts, but too many poor ones as well.   Matsuzaka has been a mess for the last 4 years. Bard was OK for a while, but faded early.  Guys like Stewart are really not ready for big league ball, but had to pitch due to some crazy situations.

    With all that typed, getting a number one type starter is almost out of the question.  Every team would like to have a Verlander, but remember even he had a season where he nearly had 20 losses only a few years ago.

    Getting the guys you have to pitch better than they have is the role of the pitching coach and the manager.  Not sure that either pitching coach has done much to make that happen this year and I am sure that the manager has done nothing to help the pitchers achieve.

    One pitching coach has been removed.  The second one and the manager need to be next because you really cannot just dump every pitcher on your team when things are going badly.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to moonslav59s comment:

    Doubront's ERA is now over 5.00. His WHIP is nearing 1.500.

    Guess what?

    We now have 5 of our top 6 starters by GS'd with ERAs over 5.00.

    Lester      5.01
    Doubrnot 5.03
    Beckett    5.23
    D Bard     5.30
    A Cook     5.35

    Even Buch is at 4.50. (Morales is at 4.14 as a starter in 9 starts)
    Dice-K is at 5.10
    Stewart 27.00

    All starters: 5.00  1.383 WHIP before tonight.

    The only 2 starters under a 1.322 WHIP are Morales and Dice-K.

    Remember how softy bashed Wake for being over 5.00. The whole starting staff is now over 5.00, but he seems to think our biggest weakness is something other than this. 



    but bobby v is the reason we sucked this year.....
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Bottom line, Moon keeps saying the same thing every season, but never provide specific names and trade and/or contract offers. 

    I've made several trade suggestions this year alone, and I have said we should not go after Cliff Lee or sign Greinke. I'd like to see us make a serious offer for Brandon McCarthy, then Jonathan Sanchez, and if we don't get them, try Shaun Marcum.

    Last winter, I suggested many very specific and detailed trade possibilities including going after Gio Gonzalez, Johnny Cuerto, Gavin Floyd, Wandy Rodriguez, and others.

    On the free agent front, I was against overpaying for Buehrle, Oswalt or Kuroda.  I said the only FAz I'd be interested in offering near market value were Edwin Jackson ($30M/3) or Paul Maholm ($12M/2). My suggested offers were a lot closer than your $1M offers for Oswalt, both Chens, Bedard, Wang, and Colon/Garcia.

    Softy's still living in the 90'z with offers like that.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    "I don't agree, at all, in the false claims that not getting unnamed starting pitching from the outside had anything to do with last September or this season. And Wakefield certainly isn't the answer."

    No one said Wakefield was the answer. But he pitched better last year than many of the starters you neglected to criticize during your anti-Wake witchhunt, which for some reason has continued even though he's out of baseball. 

    "Bottom line, Moon keeps saying the same thing every season.."

    Well, one reason for that is because he is trying to apply a consistent standard to his arguments, instead of flopping all over the place like you have done, last year railing against pitchers and this year claiming pitching is almost irrelevant. Not to mention applying different standards to different pitchers. 

    "In reality, the O's aren't where they are based on pitching. It's based on what the Red Sox did not have, a consistent offense that may not have big highs but doesn't have many big game to game lows."

    OK, so disagree and then agree here. Disagree in the sense that if pitchers like your guy Dice K give up six runs in three innings, we have no shot. There was far too much of that this year on the Sox. The Orioles haven't won anything yet. If the Rays end up advancing that will make your argument less valid, because the Rays have one of the best pitching lineups in baseball. I do agree with you that too often folks say "our offense is not the problem" when as you point out, consistency is a problem. The issue here is that as an adult I can hold two ideas in my head at once, that our pitching needs work and so does our offense, whereas your brain, as sharp as it often is, for some reason can only hold one of those ideas. You seem to think recognizing the validity of one negates the other. Welcome to the world of nuance, where both things can be true.    "Beckett is now, gone, the next step is to fire Cherry. The new GM will then need to hire the new manager to begin the rebuilding process of 2013. "

    Seriously? You are setting you (and us) up for anti-Cherington posts for the next two years? Surely you realize you are doing this just to troll. You know it's widely perceived he orchestrated a brilliant trade, and that ownership, for better or worse, is comfortable with him. It's clear that the manager will be the scapegoat again, Cherington will have at least another year if not 2 to 3 to prove himself out. 

    It's gonna be kind of a drag if you are going to post anti-Cherry comments for the next 2-3 years, but I guess you kind of like a long term beef and now that Wake is gone you are looking for another long game...





     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    My suggested offers were a lot closer than your $1M offers for Oswalt, both Chens, Bedard, Wang, and Colon/Garcia. 

    No, they weren't. As for the names you just listed, only because I demanded you be specific when you never are, you once again use "go after". That's a joke. Be specific on the amount and players. 

    In reality, those names aren't going to make one iota of difference in making a bad baseball team turn into a good one.

    Last winter, I was very specific on amounts I'd offer some FAs, including the one you bashed me for: Cody Ross $7M/2 or $10M/3. I said, I didn't like Oswalt, but would offer him $3M with incentives knowing that would not be enough, but saying that was as high as i would go. I also said what I would offer for Jackson and Maholm...very specific amounts & years.

    Nearly every trade I advocated last winter, I included cpmparative costs and precisely how much money we might have to pay the other team if we were giving them CC. I don't know a poster on this board who has been more specific in the exact players I would offer. More than anyone else on this board, I am usually criticized for offering too much, not too little, because I realize you have to give to get.

    I loved your trade suggestion for Justin Upton, but felt AZ would not make the deal, not because I thought you offered too much. 

    At times, I will join a trade discussion and say what I think it might take to get that player, but I qualify my statement with something like this, "I'm not saying I am for this trade...". Maybe these are the posts you remember from me, but there are many examples of specific trades I wanted made for about as long as I have been posting on this site. 

    Your trade offers are pretty specific too, but always involved Jake,  Jed, and now Aviles and Salty. I'm fine with trading all of these guys, but I think you overestimate their value to other teams, which is astounding, given the fact that you have bashed these 3 to kingdom come and back several times over.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Here's my latest specific offers:

    I really like Brett Anderson this winter, and think he can be pried away from Oakland. They can barely even afford this (esp in 2014 and beyond): 

    13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout) 

    I'd offer Lava, Doubront, Melancon and Aviles.
    (They need a catcher and SS)

    I'd even go as far as, Salty, Doubront, Iggy and Melancon.
    If they said no, I'd try Lava, Iggy, Melancon and Atchison.

    I'd also try hard for Gallardo from the Brewers. I'd offer Ellsbury, Aceves, Melancon & Aviles for Yovani.
    (They need pitching, so maybe we need to give up Ellsbury, Doubront, Aceves & Melancon to get him.)

    13:$7.75M, 14:$11.25M, 15:$13M club option ($0.6M buyout) 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    ... "Bottom line, Moon keeps saying the same thing every season.." 

    Well, one reason for that is because he is trying to apply a consistent standard to his arguments, instead of flopping all over the place like you have done, last year railing against pitchers and this year claiming pitching is almost irrelevant. Not to mention applying different standards to different pitchers.  

    "In reality, the O's aren't where they are based on pitching. It's based on what the Red Sox did not have, a consistent offense that may not have big highs but doesn't have many big game to game lows." 

    OK, so disagree and then agree here. Disagree in the sense that if pitchers like your guy Dice K give up six runs in three innings, we have no shot. There was far too much of that this year on the Sox. The Orioles haven't won anything yet. If the Rays end up advancing that will make your argument less valid, because the Rays have one of the best pitching lineups in baseball. I do agree with you that too often folks say "our offense is not the problem" when as you point out, consistency is a problem. The issue here is that as an adult I can hold two ideas in my head at once, that our pitching needs work and so does our offense, whereas your brain, as sharp as it often is, for some reason can only hold one of those ideas. You seem to think recognizing the validity of one negates the other. ...

    Well said. I'd like to point out that I have never said our offense can not be improved. I know we had some "unbalances" as softy calls them before the season started, but clearly our starting pitching was our biggest weakness and has been for years.

    My other point about the offense, is that it is hard to trade for "clutch", because clutch is a fleeting thing. It is a mirage. It is not something that is sustainable by a given player for long stretches. Papi is a legend for doing it for so many years in a row, but now look. Yes, we could have used a solid RH'd clean-up guy who is not a dud vs lefties like Ross almost is. I get that, but had we been healthy all year, I think this line-up would have been pretty darned balanced from top to bottom, left to right, and maybe home & away:

       vs RHP  vs LHP
    1)   Ells     Ells
    2)   CC      Pedey
    3)  Agon   Papi
    4) Pedey  Ross
    5) Papi     AGon
    6) Midd    Midd (Youk)
    7) Salty   Shopp
    8) Pods*  Aviles
    9) Aviles  CC

    * or Nava/Sweeney
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    I don't think Melancon & Aviles (to a lesser degree) have much trade value right now. Not sure about Salty, Iggy, Atchison, or Lava either.

    Aceves & Doubront have more.

    A signed Ellsbury would have much more.

    Also, it is hard to know exactly what other GM's are thinking, or what their agenda is, despite what is on the field, the bottom line, and in the farm system.
     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:

    I don't agree, at all, in the false claims that not getting unnamed starting pitching from the outside had anything to do with last September or this season. And Wakefield certainly isn't the answer.

    Bottom line, Moon keeps saying the same thing every season, but never provide specific names and trade and/or contract offers. In reality, the O's aren't where they are based on pitching. It's based on what the Red Sox did not have, a consistent offense that may not have big highs but doesn't have many big game to game lows.

    Beckett is now, gone, the next step is to fire Cherry. The new GM will then need to hire the new manager to begin the rebuilding process of 2013. 



    Too funny.  You were the king of bigotry around here, earning multiple bannings, until a recent reincarnation when you started claiming to be some sort of Ghandi-like figure accusing all and sundry of bigotry....you also made the least-detailed trade suggestions....always including "blocked prospects"....until you were shamed into providing some level of detail.  Moon is nothing if not detailed in his proposals.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    In response to bredbru's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59s comment:

    Doubront's ERA is now over 5.00. His WHIP is nearing 1.500.

    Guess what?

    We now have 5 of our top 6 starters by GS'd with ERAs over 5.00.

    Lester      5.01
    Doubrnot 5.03
    Beckett    5.23
    D Bard     5.30
    A Cook     5.35

    Even Buch is at 4.50. (Morales is at 4.14 as a starter in 9 starts)
    Dice-K is at 5.10
    Stewart 27.00

    All starters: 5.00  1.383 WHIP before tonight.

    The only 2 starters under a 1.322 WHIP are Morales and Dice-K.

    Remember how softy bashed Wake for being over 5.00. The whole starting staff is now over 5.00, but he seems to think our biggest weakness is something other than this. 



    but bobby v is the reason we sucked this year.....

     

    [/QUOTE]

    this was sarcasm.. (repeating the most popular theme here on the board).
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Moon,

    The fatal flaw of the 2012 Boston Red Sox pitching staff can be traced back to the signing of John Lackey. A veteran pitcher, who came with a pre-existing elbow injury. One that gave the Angels enough pause that they never offered him a contract. A condition serious enough if the elbow required surgery at any point during the life of his contract. That it caused the Red Sox to place a clause in his contract to protect them from themselves. A clause that Lackey and his agent agreed to, giving even more credence to the thought that it was not a matter of if, but when. Lackey then pitched with diminished stuff for two seasons before the ineviatable TJ surgery came to pass. At the time of the signing it was a move that was hailed as the final piece of what looked to be a formitable staff "5 Aces". In hindsight, it proved to be the undoing of the teams fortunes in that soon thereafter they then extended Becketts deal, even though he also had not finished a season strong since 2007. When you add to that, the saga that was Diasake Matsuska, who struggled to give the Sox depth and also pitched with diminished stuff for a calendar year before he too was shut down. Coupled with the Buccholz injury of 2011 and Lesters struggles of the last year and half. It's not all that hard to see why they're in the position they found themselves this year, entering the season. With two fifths of the rotation recovering from TJ tying up some 26M in payroll along with Buccholz returning from a serious back problem and the two guys that were seen as our 1# and #2 coming off lackluster finishes to the 2011 season a perfromance that cost us a playoff spot last year and one that continued into the 2012 season.  All that with little or no organizational depth, forcing them to move Bard into the rotation and pining thier hopes on Doubront answering the bell.

    The man behind the curtain was Theo Epstein and it was he that also in the interest of hoarding draft picks, made the decision to allow Bay, Martinez and Beltre to walk. Then, after the failed attempt to sign Texiera. He used the moneys saved and back fill the organizational depth with the draft picks reaped from allowing Bay, Beltre and Martinez to walk. Thus freeing up Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes to be dealt to the Padres to aquire Gonzalez. A move by iteself that even today. I would do again. However, after consumating the Gonzalez for deal, he then signed Carl Crawford...A player who was just entering his prime, one that came with tools, but was not a prototype Red Sox hitter. A curiuos move then and one that today also represents in my mind. Why they find themselves in the position they're in now...an embarassment of riches a team that lacks synergy where the results are greater than the sum of the parts. 



    Part of the big picture plan was moving Youk to 3rd to make room for Gonzalez. End of the day, Youk was supposed to be the run producing, righthanded hitting, middle of the order bat and hit between Gonzlez and Papi...The flaw in Epsteins thinking was that Youk would be able to move accross the diamond and play 150 games and continue to be a 100 RBI/900 plus OPS hitter. Who along with Papi and Pedrioa represented the nucleaus of the teams offense with Ells leading off. The addition of Texiera or Gonzalez was suppossed to be the final peice...Once again in hindsight, not unlike with the signing's of Lackey and Beckett (ignoring injury history). Epstein placed far to much value and weight on Youk, making a smooth transistion to 3rd with little of no drop in production. Even though to date, he'd never been able to navigate a full season all while playing first. Youk due to a myriad of injuries was a shadow of his former self and it was he that was and is the missing link that many have been pinig for since Jason Bay was allowed to sign with the Met's and we failed to ink Matt Holiday (instead chosing to sign Lackey)...

    (Note: I've yet to speak to morale issues that not one but two times the Sox made overtures to a firstbaseman, even though youk was already seen as one of the games best?)...

    Suffice to say that given the toxic landscape that is our Boston Red Sox...Repectfully speaking Moon, not sure that any of the pitchers that you championed us signing this offseason, would have made all that much difference in the teams fortunes.

    That was then...from the ashes rises the phoenix....

    Thanks to the Dodgers and Gonzalez. The Sox were able to move both Beckett and Crawford freeing up a 250M in longterm contracts and when you add to that the in-season trade of Youkilis and the soon to be departing Matususaka. Cherington now has the resources to remake this club and while we may be in for a tough ride in the short term. Job one IMHO is clean house and fire the entire major league coaching staff...then to make haste in fixing what is ailing Lester...Then go about the buisness of aquiring a proven top of the rotation starter one with the petigree to be seen as the leader and then by hook or by crook add a big bat for to middle of the lineup.

    Needless to say, it going to be an active offseason and one that I'm frankly looking forward to!



     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Did Anyone Notice?

    Wrong, it depends on what he's signed for. If it's even half what his agent wants in years and base, his trade value would be less than it is. Right now, he's about 10 million for one year, max, plus the draft compensation if the acquiring team doesn't like what he brought to the table that year and/or the market value his free agent years will cost a year from now. 

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++


    My mistake. I forgot who is agent is.
     

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