Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    On another thread Hetch described the lineup as a Punch-and-Judy lineup, and Shaughnessy on The Baseball Show was concerned about home run hitting.

    So I projected the potential home run power. A couple of notes. For Ortiz, I project him missing no more than a month. For SS, there's a bigger range, depending on how long Iggy keeps the job. Drew has hit 15 and 21 home runs, so that's why I went as high as 15 for SS, and if Iggy keeps the job, I'm guess as low as one.

    I'm assuming Bradley stays for the season, with Gomes getting about 100 games as early DH then fourth OF.

    So here is how I see it the range, with a likely expectation in bold.

    Salty: 20-25
    Napoli: 20-25
    Pedroia: 15-20
    Iggy/Drew: 1-15
    Middlebrooks: 25-30
    Ortiz: 20-25
    Ellsbury: 15-25 (20)
    Gomes: 15-20
    Bradley: 5-10
    Victorino: 10-15
    Bench (Ross, Nava, Carp, Ciraco, et al): 10-15

    Total: 156-225. I don't expect either extremes to be the norm. The bold adds up to 175, and doesn't include SS, and I think the numbers are reasonable overall, so the Sox should have enough power.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    No big mashers there, obviously, but that's a very balanced lineup if everyone is healthy. I think that will be the real question...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:

    No big mashers there, obviously, but that's a very balanced lineup if everyone is healthy. I think that will be the real question...



    Yeah, health is ALWAYS a concern with the luck the Sox have had in recent years. In all honesty, I'm most curious about what Victorino has left.

    And I tried to be conservative with Middlebrooks, but he could emerge as a 30- to 35- HR guy. And if Ortiz comes back strong, he still could end up with 30 in five months (maybe five-plus months?), although I'll stay conservative with him.

    I like the power, but a bigger question will be how good are they at getting that RBI-hit with men on base.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to royf19's comment:

    On another thread Hetch described the lineup as a Punch-and-Judy lineup, and Shaughnessy on The Baseball Show was concerned about home run hitting.

    So I projected the potential home run power. A couple of notes. For Ortiz, I project him missing no more than a month. For SS, there's a bigger range, depending on how long Iggy keeps the job. Drew has hit 15 and 21 home runs, so that's why I went as high as 15 for SS, and if Iggy keeps the job, I'm guess as low as one.

    I'm assuming Bradley stays for the season, with Gomes getting about 100 games as early DH then fourth OF.

    So here is how I see it the range, with a likely expectation in bold.

    Salty: 20-25
    Napoli: 20-25
    Pedroia: 15-20
    Iggy/Drew: 1-15
    Middlebrooks: 25-30
    Ortiz: 20-25
    Ellsbury: 15-25 (20)
    Gomes: 15-20
    Bradley: 5-10
    Victorino: 10-15
    Bench (Ross, Nava, Carp, Ciraco, et al): 10-15

    Total: 156-225. I don't expect either extremes to be the norm. The bold adds up to 175, and doesn't include SS, and I think the numbers are reasonable overall, so the Sox should have enough power.



    Their power should be fine but I don't see Ells hitting 20 home runs.  He didn't show any of that power last year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    On another thread Hetch described the lineup as a Punch-and-Judy lineup, and Shaughnessy on The Baseball Show was concerned about home run hitting.

    So I projected the potential home run power. A couple of notes. For Ortiz, I project him missing no more than a month. For SS, there's a bigger range, depending on how long Iggy keeps the job. Drew has hit 15 and 21 home runs, so that's why I went as high as 15 for SS, and if Iggy keeps the job, I'm guess as low as one.

    I'm assuming Bradley stays for the season, with Gomes getting about 100 games as early DH then fourth OF.

    So here is how I see it the range, with a likely expectation in bold.

    Salty: 20-25
    Napoli: 20-25
    Pedroia: 15-20
    Iggy/Drew: 1-15
    Middlebrooks: 25-30
    Ortiz: 20-25
    Ellsbury: 15-25 (20)
    Gomes: 15-20
    Bradley: 5-10
    Victorino: 10-15
    Bench (Ross, Nava, Carp, Ciraco, et al): 10-15

    Total: 156-225. I don't expect either extremes to be the norm. The bold adds up to 175, and doesn't include SS, and I think the numbers are reasonable overall, so the Sox should have enough power.

     



    Their power should be fine but I don't see Ells hitting 20 home runs.  He didn't show any of that power last year.

     




    Yeah, Ellsbury is definitely a wildcard. I don't think 32 was a complete fluke. Based on his early years, he should be good enough for at least 10, and I think he'll have some pop, which is why I put 15 as the low. Considering he hit 32, I put 25 at the high then split the difference. Yeah, he might not hit 20, but I really do think he'll hit at least 15.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I coud see 20HR for Ellspuff, during a contract year. But 25 is pushing it.

    Did you get your 15 to 25 projected HR range from Boras? Boras said that Ellsbury is a franchise player. He was really good in 2012, 2010, 2009 and 2008, and had the greatest season in Red Sox history in 2011.




    You just projected him at 15 to 25.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    No, I said "I could see it". My projection is 13 to 19HR, with a margin of error + or - 3

     



    So your projection is 10 to 22.

     

    Way to go out on a limb.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Yes, I think so. Ellsbury had 32 homers, so I'm going against the grain on what this Board has described as the AL MVP caliber player. His agent says he's a franchise player, so I"m out on on limb on this, alright.  



    I don't even think he will hit 13.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Yes, I think so. Ellsbury had 32 homers, so I'm going against the grain on what this Board has described as the AL MVP caliber player. His agent says he's a franchise player, so I"m out on on limb on this, alright.  

     



    I don't even think he will hit 13.

     

     



    yeah...may be 15....

    i think gomes gets 25....

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Yes, I think so. Ellsbury had 32 homers, so I'm going against the grain on what this Board has described as the AL MVP caliber player. His agent says he's a franchise player, so I"m out on on limb on this, alright.  

     



    I don't even think he will hit 13.

     

     

     



    yeah...may be 15....

     

    i think gomes gets 25....



    Gomes will get 25, he had 18 in around 270 at bats last year.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    Napoli could be good for 30 if he stays healthy.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Yes, I think so. Ellsbury had 32 homers, so I'm going against the grain on what this Board has described as the AL MVP caliber player. His agent says he's a franchise player, so I"m out on on limb on this, alright.  

     



    I don't even think he will hit 13.

     

     

     



    yeah...may be 15....

     

    i think gomes gets 25....

     



    Gomes will get 25, he had 18 in around 270 at bats last year.

     



    exactly...and in fenway..watchout...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    Gomes, Naps, Ortiz (if healthy) Salty and Middlebrooks should all be plus 20.

    Ells, Victorino, Pedey should all be 10 to 15, if Drew is healthy he should be too.

    I don't see power being a big problem for this team.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to carnie's comment:

    Napoli could be good for 30 if he stays healthy.




    i think he will have 30...or more...again in fenway his swing is built for this park...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

    Gomes, Naps, Ortiz (if healthy) Salty and Middlebrooks should all be plus 20.

    Ells, Victorino, Pedey should all be 10 to 15, if Drew is healthy he should be too.

    I don't see power being a big problem for this team.



    i agree....

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    Actually Pedrioa should be 15-20 as the OP suggested.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Yes, I think so. Ellsbury had 32 homers, so I'm going against the grain on what this Board has described as the AL MVP caliber player. His agent says he's a franchise player, so I"m out on on limb on this, alright.  

     



    I don't even think he will hit 13.

     

     

     



    yeah...may be 15....

     

    i think gomes gets 25....

     



    Gomes will get 25, he had 18 in around 270 at bats last year.

     



    I stayed lower on Gomes because I'm not convinced he'll get the at-bats. If Bradley is the real deal and Ortiz comes back in a month, I don't see Gomes getting any more than the 279 (18 HR) to 311 (14 HR) at-bats he had in 2012 and 2011 respectively, especially if Victorino is hitting well enough to stay in the lineup as a regular. That's why I split the difference with 15.

    If Ortiz is out longer or if Bradley struggles and Gomes ends up with 400-plus at-bats, then yeah, he'll be over 20.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to carnie's comment:

    Napoli could be good for 30 if he stays healthy.



    I wouldn't be surprised, but I tried to stay conservative. Without the wear and tear of catching, if he plays 140 games 30 HRs wouldn't come as a shock.

    I didn't want to project career years, just average years based on previous production.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Do the Sox Haven Enough HR Power?

    In response to TV-Guy's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

     

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

    In response to snakeoil123's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Yes, I think so. Ellsbury had 32 homers, so I'm going against the grain on what this Board has described as the AL MVP caliber player. His agent says he's a franchise player, so I"m out on on limb on this, alright.  

     



    I don't even think he will hit 13.

     

     

     



    yeah...may be 15....

     

    i think gomes gets 25....

     



    Gomes will get 25, he had 18 in around 270 at bats last year.

     

     



    I stayed lower on Gomes because I'm not convinced he'll get the at-bats. If Bradley is the real deal and Ortiz comes back in a month, I don't see Gomes getting any more than the 279 (18 HR) to 311 (14 HR) at-bats he had in 2012 and 2011 respectively, especially if Victorino is hitting well enough to stay in the lineup as a regular. That's why I split the difference with 15.

     

    If Ortiz is out longer or if Bradley struggles and Gomes ends up with 400-plus at-bats, then yeah, he'll be over 20.

     



    Ortiz is returning to Fort Myers after the NYY series in order to work out.

     



    I know. On a previous post, I said I expect Ortiz to miss most of April if not all of April. That will give Gomes, Bradley and Victorino enough at-bats to figure who plays regularly going forward when he gets back.

     

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