Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Miller's average start with the Sox:

    Moonslow isnt interested in facts or truth. He is only interested in blowing a couple of million and a roster spot on Wastefield ceremonial tour, Part 2. Moonslow is lying when he says he doesn't like Wakefield but Wakefield is a great roster value. Moonslow wants to see Wakefield complete Part 2.

    Moonslow won't provide lefty Miller's 2011 road numbers. ERA 3.98

    Moonslow won't provide Miller's W/L record of 6-3

    Moonslow won't provide Red Sox W/L record when Miller starts 9-3

    Weiland has 5 starts and has yet to be given enough time to stretch out

    Weiland has 1 quality start, 2 marginal 4 IP 3 R and 4 IP 4 R and 2 poor starts

    Doubrant has not been given rotation opportunity this year, and had a 4.32 ERA in 3 2010 spot starts

    Doubrant is 24 in 2012
    Miller is 27 in 2012
    Weiland is 26 in 2012

    Wakefield is 46 in 2012

    Garcia and Colon have been very good, on the 1 year veteran pitcher front, to name 2 veterans. Bedard and Harden are also 1 year veteran FA depth options. 

    Beckett
    Lester
    Bucholz
    Lackey  are all fixed to start out

    Need to sign 2 capable lower rotation depth veterans to one year contracts, which will be easy to do. All are far superior in capability to Wakefield.

    Aceves spot starter
    Miller spot starter (emergency rotation member)
    Farm depth is Doubrant and/or Weiland
      
    DiceK would be 11 if he can pitch in last month or two of next season.

    I see a majority of people are smart enough to see how absurd Wastefield ceremonial Tour 1 was, and do not want to see Ceremonial Tour 2.

    Fact is that youth has not been given opportunity to handle starter depth and pen roles.

    Fact is that the Yankees are where they are in 2011 because they signed 2 veterans who were not 45 years old and did not carry 5 plus ERA. Yankees have given youth opportunity to pitch in rotation enough innings to fill out depth roles.

    No possible way Wakefield and anything but a minor league contract can be justified. No way the trade, FA and farm does not provide far better options than a washed up 45 year old record ceremony bum. No way!

    The reality is that pride and prejudice is behind Wakefield quantity record roster spot ceremonial tour 1, and Wakefield propaganda is to attempt to provide cover for roster spot ceremonial tour 2. 

    End the fiasco! 

    Lowell wasn't insurance, and neither is Wakefield. Wakefield is AIG!!!!!!!!!!  
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Not that any of us fans have anything to say about who the Sox sign or don't sign,but with that said I'ld bring him back until he passes Roger for the most wins in team history! Also he was OK up until about his tenth game and then things went sideways,if they don't re-sign him it would be funny if they brought Charlie Haeger in too replace him! No matter what happens Wakes has been one the most popular player on the Sox for almost 2 decades!!!!!
    Posted by sportsbozo1[/QUOTE]

    Don't laugh. Haeger made strides in Portland. He was 4-1  3.24 ERA  1.240 WHIP.
    He whiffed a batter an inning. His best work in minors since 2006 in AAA. He's 28 years old. Wake could tutor and bridge him into rotation.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    susan you may be right, he is better with more rest. However up until this season I would say his biggest detriment was not pitching enough. Tito yanked Tim from pen to starter to spot man to starter to pen and back again. It was really unfair and may be the biggest factor in Tim's not having better seasons in the past few years.

    Up until mid-way through 2011 I always believed he would be a good #5 if healthy, winning 15 and keeping his era under 4.50.  It just is not gonna happen though - he is done.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    How do you mean about the salary differential?   Do you mean after all is said and done, with the dropped salaries, extensions and arbitration factored in, if we retain everybody at their current salaries, we will be $4M under the luxury tax?  Does that include the loss of Okajima's 1.75 and Wake's 2.5?

    I chose Cameron because I figured we had his $9M coming off the books.  Gonzalez will add $14M which is what is coming off with Drew.  I think we can re-sign Papi in such a way that saves another 3-4M off the luxury tax - I don't know the details exactly, but extra years with favorable club options?


    Slomag, I am no expert on budgets and the complexities of the luxury tax. I do know they use average yearly salary of each contract and not the actual season salary to determine the team's season budget and if they go over the threshold. I may be wrong, but I am going on teh assumption that we are not going to go significantly over thte threshold. I am assuming our budget will not go up much from 2011.  

    Here is how I look at the budget next year and what choices we may have...

    The arbs:

    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb year 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)  Maybe Theo lets him walk or trades him.
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Maybe he walks, but his replacement will not save much money.

    My guess is we keep all and we add about $15M to the 2011  budget here.

    There are option players:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    Assume we let Wheeler & Miller to save money (We can consider them options later after we see the final choices and holes we have)
    Letting Scutaro walk will cost us $1.5M (buyout). He won't take the $3M player option, because he can get the $1.5M and sign elsewhere that combined will make much more than $3M. Personally, I like Iglesias and can accept a .200 SS who is one of the greatest fielding SSs in MLB, but I don't think Theo agrees. I'll assume he walks just for the sake of argument, but will offer his as a SS solution later on. ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential)

    We save about $12.5M minus the $1.5M buyout for a savings of about $11M.

    Then, there are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    Let's wipe the slate clean just for argument's sake. We save a total of $42M.

    I am not sure about the Adrian Gonzalez deal. I think because it was signed after day one, his salary did not count on this year's budget, but his average yearly salary from 2012 to 2018 will be counted starting next year.  That's an added cost of $15.5M from the 2011 budget.

    The pre-decision breakdown comes to  ONLY $23M 

    to spend on anyone we want to keep or any new free agents. Not counting Papi, Papelbon, Scutaro, Wheeler, Wake, VTek, Miller, Bedard, and Drew. 

    Here are some possible in house solutions:

    If Paps walks: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    If Papi walks: DH: Lavarnway and or Youk (Lowrie/Aviles/Middlebrooks at 3B)
    Drew will walk: RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    If Wheeler walks: RP:  (Doubront, Bowden, )

    C: Salty (Lavarnway from DH)
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Aviles/Lowrie/Iglesias
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Lavarnway or (Youk from 3B)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Dice 
    SP6 Doubront
    SP7 Weiland

    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Aceves
    RP4 Albers
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Bowden

    Slomag, if you know me, you know I am always for upgrading the pitching staff (and defense). I'm Ok with spending almost all of the money on new pitchers, but I am a realist. We will need to find bargain players that can cheaply fill key roles or provide insurance in case of injury or unexpected declines.

    I think Wake at $1-1.5M will be one way to fill a needed slot cheaply and effectively.
    I think another year of VTek at $1-1.5M makes sense (maybe a lifetime services deal could be reached if he is into the idea of coaching catchers or pitchers).
    I think Theo re-signs Papi and I'm all for that, even though there are benefits to using the DH to rest players and keep Youk's bat fresher. Papi will probably get $25M/2 or a little less with incentives. 
    Bringing back these 3 players will eat up about $15M of the $23 I projected we'd have to keep our budget about even. That leaves $8M to fill these possible slots:
    Relief Pitcher(s) (Make Bard the closer)
    Starting Pitcher(s)
    RF (Bats Right-handed)
    SS

    Henry will have to open his wallet for us to sign multiple good players. Even if Papi walks, we'd only have about $20M to fill the above slots plus DH (or 3B if we move Youk there).

    Maybe Theo has faith in kids like Lavarnway, iglesias, Reddick/Kalish, and Middlebrooks to fill the everyday positions, and will use all of his resources to get more quality pitching. I wouldn't argue with that idea, if we got some great starters and pen guys, but I'd hate to see Papi in pinstipes.

    If someone is an expert on the budget and luxury tax, please feel free to corect my numbers.

     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Do you extend Wakefield to 2012?
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely; until you get something better, you keep him. At this point, he's better than Lackey, Doubront, Miller, Weiland, & Bowden, and amazingly, more reliable injury wise than Bedard.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Let's see how he does this weekend. With the amount of pitching injuries we had this year and the mediocrity of our starters beyond Lester/Beckett it makes sense to have him around on the cheap. He's played better than the other young pitchers he was supposedly blocking. We're all still waiting for the list of the promising young pitchers Wakefield stopped from developing. To the contrary, he outpitched them, though that isn't saying a lot. 

    In a perfect world we don't need Wake but let's see the list of starters who have pitched better than him this year on the Sox. It's a short list.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    No!
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012? : Can't argue too much with that but I must admit I am shocked to see you post that Georom. In an ideal world but it won't happen, the RS would be able to get wake on a minor league deal so if they had their opening day 25 well built he could work regularly in Pawtucket. But with the issues and question marks this club has to balance in the starting staff for 2012 and the fact that most MLB teams will use 8-10 starters over 162 games, it is hard to let him walk, evenwith the rather uncompelling stats he has put up since his back injury in mid 2009 IMO.
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    wake has been better than Lackey, miller, and weiland....he's just not fit to pitch every fifth game but using him every 15 starts and as a change of pace long relief would be quite effective...it just takes a little creativity in using him correctly
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    No, the Wake is cooked.  Stick a fork in him.  Let him join the org as a manager in AA.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    good one georom4 - I love your humor Laughing Wakefield creatively useful if used the right way, what a hoot. What else do you have for us today?


     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    For fun, let's determine this based on how he pitches on Sunday.  Steller game...bring him back.  Mediocre game...Spring Training Invite.  Awful game...thanks for the memories.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Do you extend Wakefield to 2012?
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    Last February Epstein was concerned about the starting pitching depth. Dice-K went down, Buchholz went down and we were left with a 45 yr old who can't keep up with pitching every 5 days.  The farm system faultered with no class replacements available for starting.  Dubront...out of shape and a huge disappointment. Bowden...still hasn't proven he can pitch in the majors. The list goes on.

    Lackey isn't making the grade. Bedard is a has-been.  The answer to these huge holes in the starting pitching is not bringing back a 45 yr old, regardless of his history because this isn't about history it's about now and the future and Wake isn't in either.



     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Nope and I don't even think any other organizations would find value in him either.  I bet he hangs it up.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]How do you mean about the salary differential?   Do you mean after all is said and done, with the dropped salaries, extensions and arbitration factored in, if we retain everybody at their current salaries, we will be $4M under the luxury tax?  Does that include the loss of Okajima's 1.75 and Wake's 2.5? I chose Cameron because I figured we had his $9M coming off the books.  Gonzalez will add $14M which is what is coming off with Drew.  I think we can re-sign Papi in such a way that saves another 3-4M off the luxury tax - I don't know the details exactly, but extra years with favorable club options? Slomag, I am no expert on budgets and the complexities of the luxury tax. I do know they use average yearly salary of each contract and not the actual season salary to determine the team's season budget and if they go over the threshold. I may be wrong, but I am going on teh assumption that we are not going to go significantly over thte threshold. I am assuming our budget will not go up much from 2011.   Here is how I look at the budget next year and what choices we may have... The arbs: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)  Maybe Theo lets him walk or trades him. Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Maybe he walks, but his replacement will not save much money. My guess is we keep all and we add about $15M to the 2011  budget here. There are option players: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler & Miller to save money (We can consider them options later after we see the final choices and holes we have) Letting Scutaro walk will cost us $1.5M (buyout). He won't take the $3M player option, because he can get the $1.5M and sign elsewhere that combined will make much more than $3M. Personally, I like Iglesias and can accept a .200 SS who is one of the greatest fielding SSs in MLB, but I don't think Theo agrees. I'll assume he walks just for the sake of argument, but will offer his as a SS solution later on. ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) We save about $12.5M minus the $1.5M buyout for a savings of about $11M . Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M Let's wipe the slate clean just for argument's sake. We save a total of $42M. I am not sure about the Adrian Gonzalez deal. I think because it was signed after day one, his salary did not count on this year's budget, but his average yearly salary from 2012 to 2018 will be counted starting next year.  That's an added cost of $15.5M from the 2011 budget. The pre-decision breakdown comes to   ONLY $23M  to spend on anyone we want to keep or any new free agents. Not counting Papi, Papelbon, Scutaro, Wheeler, Wake, VTek, Miller, Bedard, and Drew.  Here are some possible in house solutions: If Paps walks: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  If Papi walks: DH: Lavarnway and or Youk (Lowrie/Aviles/Middlebrooks at 3B) Drew will walk: RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) If Wheeler walks: RP:  (Doubront, Bowden, ) C: Salty (Lavarnway from DH) 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie/Iglesias LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Lavarnway or (Youk from 3B) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Dice  SP6 Doubront SP7 Weiland RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Bowden Slomag, if you know me, you know I am always for upgrading the pitching staff (and defense). I'm Ok with spending almost all of the money on new pitchers, but I am a realist. We will need to find bargain players that can cheaply fill key roles or provide insurance in case of injury or unexpected declines. I think Wake at $1-1.5M will be one way to fill a needed slot cheaply and effectively. I think another year of VTek at $1-1.5M makes sense (maybe a lifetime services deal could be reached if he is into the idea of coaching catchers or pitchers). I think Theo re-signs Papi and I'm all for that, even though there are benefits to using the DH to rest players and keep Youk's bat fresher. Papi will probably get $25M/2 or a little less with incentives.  Bringing back these 3 players will eat up about $15M of the $23 I projected we'd have to keep our budget about even. That leaves $8M to fill these possible slots: Relief Pitcher(s) (Make Bard the closer) Starting Pitcher(s) RF (Bats Right-handed) SS Henry will have to open his wallet for us to sign multiple good players. Even if Papi walks, we'd only have about $20M to fill the above slots plus DH (or 3B if we move Youk there). Maybe Theo has faith in kids like Lavarnway, iglesias, Reddick/Kalish, and Middlebrooks to fill the everyday positions, and will use all of his resources to get more quality pitching. I wouldn't argue with that idea, if we got some great starters and pen guys, but I'd hate to see Papi in pinstipes. If someone is an expert on the budget and luxury tax, please feel free to corect my numbers.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon,

    I think you're far more an expert on this than I am, but I'm going to say that the arbitration figure is a little high - Ellsbury will probably get 4-5 million, and Salty maybe 2, but everybody else is a part time player.  I don't think it comes to more than 10M.  Also, Okajima is a FA, which adds 2M to that 5M savings, so I'm going to start with 30M to work with instead of 23.

    I do think we bring back Papi, but one of Theo's strengths has been the way he structures contracts to keep the salaries low with regards to the luxury tax.  I think it works something like if you want Papi for 2 years / 25M, offer him 3 years at 30M, with a 5M club buyout on the third year.  That leaves us with 20M to work with instead of 17.5.  

    We could, at this point exercise the Yu Darvish plan, and keep Papelbon, but if he wants $11M / year, I'm inclined to let him walk. I would offer Papelbon 3 / 24, and if he declines, offer the same to Ryan Madson.  That leaves us $3M to bring back Miller, and sign Brandon Webb to a minor league deal (that doesn't count at all, right?).

    I appreciate everything Wakefield has done over the course of his Red Sox career.  But the what your numbers never account for, when compared to Miller or Weiland, is lack of potential.  If you charted Miller's starts like you did Wake's they would all be either red or blue.  That tells me he has the stuff to be much more than a 6-7 starter, if he can put it all together, and for $3M you are getting close to what Wakefield gives you, plus the chance to be the team he's on if and when it all comes together.  Also, as a guy who loves to point out Tek's influence on pitchers, take a look at the catcher split with Miller - maybe it's a coincidence, or maybe a generational thing, but Miller has been actually very good (for a 6-7 starter) with Salty.



     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]For fun, let's determine this based on how he pitches on Sunday.  Steller game...bring him back.  Mediocre game...Spring Training Invite.  Awful game...thanks for the memories.
    Posted by Gready[/QUOTE]

    Brilliant idea. Make crucial decisions based on just one game.

    Geeeesh!

     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Lackey isn't making the grade. Bedard is a has-been.  The answer to these huge holes in the starting pitching is not bringing back a 45 yr old, regardless of his history because this isn't about history it's about now and the future and Wake isn't in either.

    No, it's about what we can afford and what other options are out that at a similar cost. If Theo can get another pitcher better than Wake for just $1-1.5M, I will happily say good-bye to Wake. My opinion is that there are no pitchers that will put his team in a position to win in about 60-65% of his starts (even if limited to just 15-20 starts) at that low of a cost.

    I have less faith in Tazawa, Doubront, Weiland or Miller (and Lackey) next year than Wake.
     
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    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Moon,

    I think you're far more an expert on this than I am, but I'm going to say that the arbitration figure is a little high - Ellsbury will probably get 4-5 million, and Salty maybe 2, but everybody else is a part time player.  I don't think it comes to more than 10M.  Also, Okajima is a FA, which adds 2M to that 5M savings, so I'm going to start with 30M to work with instead of 23.

    I think you may be right. I had recently raised my arb gain number based on Ells and Aceves continuing their great seasons, but unless an arb season is a player's last one, they rarely see huge raises no matter how well they play. I  forgot about Oki.  I also forgot about Cameron and Reyes. That's about $8M more!  Ooops...see, that's why I am not the expert on these numbers.

    That puts us at a much better number of about $38M.

    I do think we bring back Papi, but one of Theo's strengths has been the way he structures contracts to keep the salaries low with regards to the luxury tax.  I think it works something like if you want Papi for 2 years / 25M, offer him 3 years at 30M, with a 5M club buyout on the third year.  That leaves us with 20M to work with instead of 17.5.  

    I think the buyout number is included in the yearly average, so it would be $25M/3, which gives us about $4M more than my projected offer. That would leave us with about $30M after re-signing Papi. ($38-8.3M)

    We could, at this point exercise the Yu Darvish plan, and keep Papelbon, but if he wants $11M / year, I'm inclined to let him walk. I would offer Papelbon 3 / 24, and if he declines, offer the same to Ryan Madson.  That leaves us $3M to bring back Miller, and sign Brandon Webb to a minor league deal (that doesn't count at all, right?).

    Papelbon will certainly want more than he makes now yearly. He is making $12M now. I think he will get $56M/4 ($14M per year), but maybe Theo could get him for $36M/3 with the 4th year option with a $4M buyout in the last year. That would mean it's luxury tax cost would be about $13M not 14.) So, $30M-13M=
    $17M leftover to spend on 2-3 more starters, building up the pen, and perhaps upgrading SS and/or RF. 
    I don't think that's enough, so I look to guys like Wake and Vtek to fill out our roster and add decent depth.

    I appreciate everything Wakefield has done over the course of his Red Sox career.  But the what your numbers never account for, when compared to Miller or Weiland, is lack of potential.  If you charted Miller's starts like you did Wake's they would all be either red or blue.  

    This is not really true. Miller has a lot of major league starts over his career. Weiland's sample size is small, but I'll break that down too...

    Miller's starts since mid 2009 (remember 2009-2010 were against non DH NL teams):
    6.2  3  9
    2.2  2  8  
    2.2  4  10
    5.0  1  6
    5.0  1  10
    4.0  7  14
    5.0  5  12
    1.1  5  7
    4.1  4  10
    3.0  4  8
    5.2  3  10
    6.0  1  7
    6.0  2  9
    5.0  3  10
    2.2  7  10
    5.2  0  8
    3.2  5  11
    5.2  3  11
    5.1  1  5
    6.1  0  5
    1.1  6  9
    5.0  5  10

    22 Starts
    Red       7
    Orange 1
    Purple  2
    Black    1
    Blue    11

    I used ERs per IP for my evaluation of Wake, not because I value that most, but because most posters only look at ERA to judge starters. I also highly value WHIP. Miller's super high WHIP does not hint of "potential". To me it hints of luck. Couple that with the fact that he faced very easy opponents this year and NL clubs the 2 years beforehand, maKes me feel he does not have much potential at all, his nasty stuff notwithstanding. Also, look how many times Miller taxed his bullpen comapred to Wake. That's ahuge factor in the team's chances of winning the games following their starts...something overlooked by most posters. I think the Sox are 14-6 after Wake starts this year, last I checked.

    Weiland:
    4.0  6  10
    6.0  3  9
    4.0  3  9
    3.0  4  5
    4.2  5  7

    No Red or Orange
    1 Purple (close to orange)
    1 Black
    3 Blue

    He's not even close to Wake's 2009-2011 ratios, plus he only has one game over 4.2 IP! That kills a pen. Bad WHIP. He's young. He does have potential, but i also think Wake has the potential to revert to 2008-2009 form or even repeat his first 15 starts numbers next year in a lesser role.

    The comparative numbers by percent of starts:
               Red   Orange  Purple  Black  Blue
    Wake    25       18            9           25     23
    Miller    32         5            9            5     50
    Weiland  0        0           20          20     60

    Red and Orange:
    Wake:   43%
    Miller:   37%
    Weiland: 0%

    Add purple:
    Wake:   52%
    Miller:   46%
    Weiland: 20%

    Add black:
    Wake:  77%
    Miller:  50%
    Weiland: 40%

    Look at the percent of horrible games: it's not even close, although if you combine Black and Blue, it is much closer, but Wake still has the edge over Miller 48% to 55%.

    That tells me he has the stuff to be much more than a 6-7 starter, if he can put it all together, and for $3M you are getting close to what Wakefield gives you, plus the chance to be the team he's on if and when it all comes together.  

    True, $3M is not that much more than $1-1.5M, but we may be squeezed by that much. Also, I wouldn't mind having both of these guys back as our #7-8 starters or #6-7 starters if we have a solid 5. (Since lackey will probably be our #5 next year, that is highly doubtful and puts a spotlight on our #6-9 starters).

    Also, as a guy who loves to point out Tek's influence on pitchers, take a look at the catcher split with Miller - maybe it's a coincidence, or maybe a generational thing, but Miller has been actually very good (for a 6-7 starter) with Salty.

    Yes, in a small sample size, he did do much better. Maybe that can continue next year.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

      WAKE WILL BE COACHING  T-BALL NEXT YEAR !!!!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]  WAKE WILL BE COACHING  T-BALL NEXT YEAR !!!!
    Posted by Bill-806[/QUOTE]

    Did dad tell you that?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Moon, I think you're far more an expert on this than I am, but I'm going to say that the arbitration figure is a little high - Ellsbury will probably get 4-5 million, and Salty maybe 2, but everybody else is a part time player.  I don't think it comes to more than 10M.  Also, Okajima is a FA, which adds 2M to that 5M savings, so I'm going to start with 30M to work with instead of 23. I think you may be right. I had recently raised my arb gain number based on Ells and Aceves continuing their great seasons, but unless an arb season is a player's last one, they rarely see huge raises no matter how well they play. I  forgot about Oki.  I also forgot about Cameron and Reyes. That's about $8M more!  Ooops...see, that's why I am not the expert on these numbers. That puts us at a much better number of about $38M. I do think we bring back Papi, but one of Theo's strengths has been the way he structures contracts to keep the salaries low with regards to the luxury tax.  I think it works something like if you want Papi for 2 years / 25M, offer him 3 years at 30M, with a 5M club buyout on the third year.  That leaves us with 20M to work with instead of 17.5.   I think the buyout number is included in the yearly average, so it would be $25M/3, which gives us about $4M more than my projected offer. That would leave us with about $30M after re-signing Papi. ($38-8.3M) We could, at this point exercise the Yu Darvish plan, and keep Papelbon, but if he wants $11M / year, I'm inclined to let him walk. I would offer Papelbon 3 / 24, and if he declines, offer the same to Ryan Madson.  That leaves us $3M to bring back Miller, and sign Brandon Webb to a minor league deal (that doesn't count at all, right?). Papelbon will certainly want more than he makes now yearly. He is making $12M now. I think he will get $56M/4 ($14M per year), but maybe Theo could get him for $36M/3 with the 4th year option with a $4M buyout in the last year. That would mean it's luxury tax cost would be about $13M not 14.) So, $30M-13M= $17M leftover to spend on 2-3 more starters, building up the pen, and perhaps upgrading SS and/or RF.  I don't think that's enough, so I look to guys like Wake and Vtek to fill out our roster and add decent depth. I appreciate everything Wakefield has done over the course of his Red Sox career.  But the what your numbers never account for, when compared to Miller or Weiland, is lack of potential.  If you charted Miller's starts like you did Wake's they would all be either red or blue.   This is not really true. Miller has a lot of major league starts over his career. Weiland's sample size is small, but I'll break that down too... Miller's starts since mid 2009 (remember 2009-2010 were against non DH NL teams): 6.2  3  9 2.2  2  8   2.2  4  10 5.0  1  6 5.0  1  10 4.0  7  14 5.0  5  12 1.1  5  7 4.1  4  10 3.0  4  8 5.2  3  10 6.0  1  7 6.0  2  9 5.0  3  10 2.2  7  10 5.2  0  8 3.2  5  11 5.2  3  11 5.1  1  5 6.1  0  5 1.1  6  9 5.0  5  10 22 Starts Red       7 Orange 1 Purple  2 Black    1 Blue    11 I used ERs per IP for my evaluation of Wake, not because I value that most, but because most posters only look at ERA to judge starters. I also highly value WHIP. Miller's super high WHIP does not hint of "potential". To me it hints of luck. Couple that with the fact that he faced very easy opponents this year and NL clubs the 2 years beforehand, maKes me feel he does not have much potential at all, his nasty stuff notwithstanding. Also, look how many times Miller taxed his bullpen comapred to Wake. That's ahuge factor in the team's chances of winning the games following their starts...something overlooked by most posters. I think the Sox are 14-6 after Wake starts this year, last I checked. Weiland: 4.0  6  10 6.0  3  9 4.0  3  9 3.0  4  5 4.2  5  7 No Red or Orange 1 Purple (close to orange) 1 Black 3 Blue He's not even close to Wake's 2009-2011 ratios, plus he only has one game over 4.2 IP! That kills a pen. Bad WHIP. He's young. He does have potential, but i also think Wake has the potential to revert to 2008-2009 form or even repeat his first 15 starts numbers next year in a lesser role. That tells me he has the stuff to be much more than a 6-7 starter, if he can put it all together, and for $3M you are getting close to what Wakefield gives you, plus the chance to be the team he's on if and when it all comes together.   True, $3M is not that much more than $1-1.5M, but we may be squeezed by that much. Also, I wouldn't mind having both of these guys back as our #7-8 starters or #6-7 starters if we have a solid 5. (Since lackey will probably be our #5 next year, that is highly doubtful and puts a spotlight on our #6-9 starters). Also, as a guy who loves to point out Tek's influence on pitchers, take a look at the catcher split with Miller - maybe it's a coincidence, or maybe a generational thing, but Miller has been actually very good (for a 6-7 starter) with Salty. Yes, in a small sample size, he did do much better. Maybe that can continue next year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Don't you find Miller's break-down encouraging, though? From 2009 - 2010, the blue starts outnumber the red starts 4 to 1.  From then they're about even.  Maybe that trend continues.  He's an all or nothing pitcher - yes, Wake is more likely to give you five or six innings of 3-5 runs.  Miller, when he's off will give up five runs in an inning.  But when your offense is struggling, or you're facing a great pitcher, I'd rather see Miller take the mound, because he has proven he is capable of throwing a gem.  He's thrown 5 of them in his last 11 starts - you have to go back 13 starts to find one for Wake.



     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Also, I come back to this - you can hold a Wakefield appreciation day, and tell him thank you very much for your service, but we're going in another direction next year.  Everybody would be fine with that.  But if you sign him, you're stuck with him for the whole year.  Bring Miller back - if he stinks, trade or DFA him and make another move - nobody would bat an eye.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Slomag, I enjoy debating with you. You always raise good points. Perhaps you put more value on most recent month or 2 month sample sizes than I.

    I look back to Wake first start this year in May and see 10 of his first 16 starts at red or orange and only 2 at blue. Miller has never had a stretch like that for that long. I think Wake has the "potential" to repeat or improve on those 16 starts next year, but that's not the main issue to me. Where can you find a pitcher who can give you a solid 16 starts for $1-1.5M? I'd still bet on Wake outperforming Miller in 2012...and for less $$$.
     
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