Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?
posted at 9/24/2011 11:44 AM EDT
In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?
[QUOTE]How do you mean about the salary differential? Do you mean after all is said and done, with the dropped salaries, extensions and arbitration factored in, if we retain everybody at their current salaries, we will be $4M under the luxury tax? Does that include the loss of Okajima's 1.75 and Wake's 2.5? I chose Cameron because I figured we had his $9M coming off the books. Gonzalez will add $14M which is what is coming off with Drew. I think we can re-sign Papi in such a way that saves another 3-4M off the luxury tax - I don't know the details exactly, but extra years with favorable club options? Slomag, I am no expert on budgets and the complexities of the luxury tax. I do know they use average yearly salary of each contract and not the actual season salary to determine the team's season budget and if they go over the threshold. I may be wrong, but I am going on teh assumption that we are not going to go significantly over thte threshold. I am assuming our budget will not go up much from 2011. Here is how I look at the budget next year and what choices we may have... The arbs: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb year 2 of 3) Albers $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Maybe Theo lets him walk or trades him. Lowrie $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Maybe he walks, but his replacement will not save much money. My guess is we keep all and we add about $15M to the 2011 budget here. There are option players: Scutaro $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller $3m club option ? (some gray area here) Assume we let Wheeler & Miller to save money (We can consider them options later after we see the final choices and holes we have) Letting Scutaro walk will cost us $1.5M (buyout). He won't take the $3M player option, because he can get the $1.5M and sign elsewhere that combined will make much more than $3M. Personally, I like Iglesias and can accept a .200 SS who is one of the greatest fielding SSs in MLB, but I don't think Theo agrees. I'll assume he walks just for the sake of argument, but will offer his as a SS solution later on. ($6M vs $1.5M buyout is a $4.5M differential) We save about $12.5M minus the $1.5M buyout for a savings of about $11M . Then, there are FreeAgents: JD Drew $14M Ortiz $12.5M Papelbon $10.33M Varitek $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard $1M Let's wipe the slate clean just for argument's sake. We save a total of $42M. I am not sure about the Adrian Gonzalez deal. I think because it was signed after day one, his salary did not count on this year's budget, but his average yearly salary from 2012 to 2018 will be counted starting next year. That's an added cost of $15.5M from the 2011 budget. The pre-decision breakdown comes to ONLY $23M to spend on anyone we want to keep or any new free agents. Not counting Papi, Papelbon, Scutaro, Wheeler, Wake, VTek, Miller, Bedard, and Drew. Here are some possible in house solutions: If Paps walks: Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) If Papi walks: DH: Lavarnway and or Youk (Lowrie/Aviles/Middlebrooks at 3B) Drew will walk: RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) If Wheeler walks: RP: (Doubront, Bowden, ) C: Salty (Lavarnway from DH) 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie/Iglesias LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Lavarnway or (Youk from 3B) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Dice SP6 Doubront SP7 Weiland RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Aceves RP4 Albers RP5 Morales RP6 Bowden Slomag, if you know me, you know I am always for upgrading the pitching staff (and defense). I'm Ok with spending almost all of the money on new pitchers, but I am a realist. We will need to find bargain players that can cheaply fill key roles or provide insurance in case of injury or unexpected declines. I think Wake at $1-1.5M will be one way to fill a needed slot cheaply and effectively. I think another year of VTek at $1-1.5M makes sense (maybe a lifetime services deal could be reached if he is into the idea of coaching catchers or pitchers). I think Theo re-signs Papi and I'm all for that, even though there are benefits to using the DH to rest players and keep Youk's bat fresher. Papi will probably get $25M/2 or a little less with incentives. Bringing back these 3 players will eat up about $15M of the $23 I projected we'd have to keep our budget about even. That leaves $8M to fill these possible slots: Relief Pitcher(s) (Make Bard the closer) Starting Pitcher(s) RF (Bats Right-handed) SS Henry will have to open his wallet for us to sign multiple good players. Even if Papi walks, we'd only have about $20M to fill the above slots plus DH (or 3B if we move Youk there). Maybe Theo has faith in kids like Lavarnway, iglesias, Reddick/Kalish, and Middlebrooks to fill the everyday positions, and will use all of his resources to get more quality pitching. I wouldn't argue with that idea, if we got some great starters and pen guys, but I'd hate to see Papi in pinstipes. If someone is an expert on the budget and luxury tax, please feel free to corect my numbers.
Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
I think you're far more an expert on this than I am, but I'm going to say that the arbitration figure is a little high - Ellsbury will probably get 4-5 million, and Salty maybe 2, but everybody else is a part time player. I don't think it comes to more than 10M. Also, Okajima is a FA, which adds 2M to that 5M savings, so I'm going to start with 30M to work with instead of 23.
I do think we bring back Papi, but one of Theo's strengths has been the way he structures contracts to keep the salaries low with regards to the luxury tax. I think it works something like if you want Papi for 2 years / 25M, offer him 3 years at 30M, with a 5M club buyout on the third year. That leaves us with 20M to work with instead of 17.5.
We could, at this point exercise the Yu Darvish plan, and keep Papelbon, but if he wants $11M / year, I'm inclined to let him walk. I would offer Papelbon 3 / 24, and if he declines, offer the same to Ryan Madson. That leaves us $3M to bring back Miller, and sign Brandon Webb to a minor league deal (that doesn't count at all, right?).
I appreciate everything Wakefield has done over the course of his Red Sox career. But the what your numbers never account for, when compared to Miller or Weiland, is lack of potential. If you charted Miller's starts like you did Wake's they would all be either red or blue. That tells me he has the stuff to be much more than a 6-7 starter, if he can put it all together, and for $3M you are getting close to what Wakefield gives you, plus the chance to be the team he's on if and when it all comes together. Also, as a guy who loves to point out Tek's influence on pitchers, take a look at the catcher split with Miller - maybe it's a coincidence, or maybe a generational thing, but Miller has been actually very good (for a 6-7 starter) with Salty.