Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    Also, I come back to this - you can hold a Wakefield appreciation day, and tell him thank you very much for your service, but we're going in another direction next year.  Everybody would be fine with that.  But if you sign him, you're stuck with him for the whole year.  Bring Miller back - if he stinks, trade or DFA him and make another move - nobody would bat an eye.
    Posted by slomag

    A repeat of Mike Lowell is not desired, I agree, but if we stay healthy next year, Wake may never even get a start. Ideally, his performance would probably be enhanced if he could pitch 7-9 starts in April, then do light relief work of go on the DL, and return for 7-9 more in August. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    My opinion is that there are no pitchers that will put his team in a position to win in about 60-65% of his starts (even if limited to just 15-20 starts) at that low of a cost.

    That isn't your opinion, it's your propaganda

    Bedard  1M  3.5 ERA 2011  Age 33
    Colon    .9M 4.02 ERA 2011 Age 39 
    Garcia  1.5M 3.77 ERA 2011 Age 35
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    If you look at the RS roster going into the off season their challenge is going to be market availability, trade assets and player personnel budget.

    As far as starting pitching goes this is what the RS are looking at:

    Under control and optimal:
    Beckett
    Lester
    Buch

    Under control and questionable:
    Lackey
    Weiland
    Doubront

    Contract decisions for 2012
    Wakefield
    Miller

    Now a quick look at that math shows that is only 8 pitchers IF the RS use their team option on Miller and bring back Wake. When Theo said he was short on starting pitching it was because he only saw 7-8 options in the organization because of the state of development in AAA. Not much will have changed in one year.

    So it is likely we see Wake back and see some other "project" signings with guys of the stature of Maholm, Jackson and/or Francis.

    Not only does the FA stink this year for "plug and play" starting pitching answers, the RS will have deal with what direction they choose to take with their DH and the very tough question of the closer.

    Now I saw somewhere that somebody referenced $1.5M for Wake. It should be noted because of his IP clause in his 2 year deal he earned $3.5M this year and a similar figure would be required to get him back I think. Now while it is a insane # in the real world, in sports economics it is small.

    Not saying Wake sticks, but I think he is some the spaghetti you throw against the wall in the spring to see what sticks.

    I saw somewhere in these threads that somebody suggested that Ellsbury arbitration would net about a $4M contract? Not remotely possible IMHO. If the RS best offer is $4M or $5M Boras will go to arbitration and ask something stupid like $10M. And that would likely be granted as $10M is far closer to Ellsbury value than $4M. I think they settle 1 year at around $7M-$8M to avoid arbitration. The RS do not want to exchange bids with an arbitrator for a CF who hit over .300 with nearly 30 HR, nearly 100 RBI and over 30 SB. Not as scary as the Giants situation was with Tim Lincecum was but a similar situation if the RS offer were too low.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    My opinion is that there are no pitchers that will put his team in a position to win in about 60-65% of his starts (even if limited to just 15-20 starts) at that low of a cost.

    That isn't your opinion, it's your propaganda

    Bedard  1M  3.5 ERA 2011  Age 33
    Colon    .9M 4.02 ERA 2011 Age 39 
    Garcia  1.5M 3.77 ERA 2011 Age 35

    I should have said "few" pitchers not "no", I won't ask for forgiveness, because I know you are incapable of being kind.

    Besides, Bedard cost more than $1M, he cost us a very good OF prospect and $1M for what? 6 starts?

    Colon and Garcia were great finds by Cashman, but even he admitted they exceeded his expectaions.

    There are other pitchers with as good or better numbers than Wake, and some of them are cheap or cheaper, especially fo you have a young guy in your system to bring up, but counting on Theo to find next year's Colon or Garcia is wishful thinking.

    Why don't you tell us now, who Theo can sign for next year at $1-1.5M. We will probably need 2-3 of them, so list 2-3. I'll save your answer and we'll revisit next season.
     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Garcia and Colon have been very good, on the 1 year veteran pitcher front, to name 2 veterans. Bedard and Harden are also 1 year veteran FA depth options.

    Beckett
    Lester
    Bucholz
    Lackey are all fixed to start out

    Need to sign 2 capable lower rotation depth veterans to one year contracts, which will be easy to do. All are far superior in capability to Wakefield.

    Aceves spot starter
    Miller spot starter (emergency rotation member)
    Farm depth is Doubrant and/or Weiland

    DiceK would be 11 if he can pitch in last month or two of next season.

    I see a majority of people are smart enough to see how absurd Wastefield ceremonial Tour 1 was, and do not want to see Ceremonial Tour 2.

    Fact is that youth has not been given opportunity to handle starter depth and pen roles.

    Fact is that the Yankees are where they are in 2011 because they signed 2 veterans who were not 45 years old and did not carry 5 plus ERA. Yankees have given youth opportunity to pitch in rotation enough innings to fill out depth roles.

    No possible way Wakefield and anything but a minor league contract can be justified. No way the trade, FA and farm does not provide far better options than a washed up 45 year old record ceremony bum. No way!

    The reality is that pride and prejudice is behind Wakefield quantity record roster spot ceremonial tour 1, and Wakefield propaganda is to attempt to provide cover for roster spot ceremonial tour 2.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    Slomag, I enjoy debating with you. You always raise good points. Perhaps you put more value on most recent month or 2 month sample sizes than I. I look back to Wake first start this year in May and see 10 of his first 16 starts at red or orange and only 2 at blue. Miller has never had a stretch like that for that long. I think Wake has the "potential" to repeat or improve on those 16 starts next year, but that's not the main issue to me. Where can you find a pitcher who can give you a solid 16 starts for $1-1.5M? I'd still bet on Wake outperforming Miller in 2012...and for less $$$.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Thanks Moon - feeling's mutual :)

    Miller does not have enough mileage yet to have a meaningful sample size.  IMO, his development was all screwed up by coming up too soon, and floating from organization to organization, but I think he still has the potential to be very good, and your break-down makes me even more optimistic.  So it's not that I put more emphasis on shorter sample sizes - it's just that with Miller, and any 26-year old, I don't know how far back the stats are meaningful.  Miller was very good at Pawtucket - if he had started out in the Sox organization (his own contract stipulations aside), he would probably be getting his first taste of the big leagues right now.

    By the way - is there something odd about Miller's contract?  Baseball Reference says he's just arb eligible at the end of the year.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    If you look at the RS roster going into the off season their challenge is going to be market availability, trade assets and player personnel budget. As far as starting pitching goes this is what the RS are looking at: Under control and optimal: Beckett Lester Buch Under control and questionable: Lackey Weiland Doubront Contract decisions for 2012 Wakefield Miller Now a quick look at that math shows that is only 8 pitchers IF the RS use their team option on Miller and bring back Wake. When Theo said he was short on starting pitching it was because he only saw 7-8 options in the organization because of the state of development in AAA. Not much will have changed in one year. So it is likely we see Wake back and see some other "project" signings with guys of the stature of Maholm, Jackson and/or Francis. Not only does the FA stink this year for "plug and play" starting pitching answers, the RS will have deal with what direction they choose to take with their DH and the very tough question of the closer. Now I saw somewhere that somebody referenced $1.5M for Wake. It should be noted because of his IP clause in his 2 year deal he earned $3.5M this year and a similar figure would be required to get him back I think. Now while it is a insane # in the real world, in sports economics it is small. Not saying Wake sticks, but I think he is some the spaghetti you throw against the wall in the spring to see what sticks. I saw somewhere in these threads that somebody suggested that Ellsbury arbitration would net about a $4M contract? Not remotely possible IMHO. If the RS best offer is $4M or $5M Boras will go to arbitration and ask something stupid like $10M. And that would likely be granted as $10M is far closer to Ellsbury value than $4M. I think they settle 1 year at around $7M-$8M to avoid arbitration. The RS do not want to exchange bids with an arbitrator for a CF who hit over .300 with nearly 30 HR, nearly 100 RBI and over 30 SB. Not as scary as the Giants situation was with Tim Lincecum was but a similar situation if the RS offer were too low.
    Posted by fivekatz


    Katz, that was me, but I said 4-5M above 2011 salary, which would put him at about $7M.

    Also, don't forget about dice-k.  He has a shot of returning in the second half - I don't know if the Sox want to bank on that, but it might be the difference between making a move in the off-season, or waiting to see where he is at by the trade deadline.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ct-pitcher. Show ct-pitcher's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    My opinion is that there are no pitchers that will put his team in a position to win in about 60-65% of his starts (even if limited to just 15-20 starts) at that low of a cost. That isn't your opinion, it's your propaganda Bedard  1M  3.5 ERA 2011  Age 33 Colon    .9M 4.02 ERA 2011 Age 39  Garcia  1.5M 3.77 ERA 2011 Age 35 I should have said "few" pitchers not "no", I won't ask for forgiveness, because I know you are incapable of being kind. Besides, Bedard cost more than $1M, he cost us a very good OF prospect and $1M for what? 6 starts? Colon and Garcia were great finds by Cashman, but even he admitted they exceeded his expectaions. There are other pitchers with as good or better numbers than Wake, and some of them are cheap or cheaper, especially fo you have a young guy in your system to bring up, but counting on Theo to find next year's Colon or Garcia is wishful thinking. Why don't you tell us now, who Theo can sign for next year at $1-1.5M. We will probably need 2-3 of them, so list 2-3. I'll save your answer and we'll revisit next season.
    Posted by moonslav59


    This discussion only makes sense if you assume that we have to buy all the faulty premises upon which it is based.

    The first faulty premise is that Wake is better than all the other RS slugs who allege to be able to start on this team and thus, as he is the best of the worst options, he should be brought back.

    The second faulty premise is that the RS can only spend $1-$1.5 mil and therefore from within those price constraints, Wake is again the best of worst options and he should be brought back.

    The third faulty premise is that the RS have to find someone who can make 12-16 starts and only pay them $1.5 mil or less to do that.

    If we can only look at Doubront, Bowden, Weiland, A Miller & Bedard and leap to only being able to spend $1.5 mil then your point is made. Fortunately those will not be our only options. Fortunately, this isn't entirely based on accounting.

    It seems we have tried what Cashman tried this year - used tires and other's old castaways and has-beens didn't work out despite our prayers for them all to become "low-risk, high-reward."  Smoltz, Penny

    This team has commitments to Beckett, Lester, Lackey & Buchholz. Dice is in his last year in 2012 and we won't see him, if at all, until August. Bedard wants to stay and at age 32 and given his $1 mil price it looks attractive only if you discount his recent injury history.  Bowden has yet to prove he can pitch in the majors, given several tries the past few years including this one. Doubront arrived out of shape, not ready. Weiland, diplomatically, is not ready-assuming he ever will be. A Miller was serviceable for a few starts and then had a meltdown - again not ready for the show.

    If I buy your logic we back into a deal with a 45 soon to be a 46 yr old next August to pitch part of the summer?

    I still think we need the best option we can find at #5 and not rest on comparing everyone else's #5 against our options and saying we're fine. The lack of depth in this year's rotation means we look for better options - not be satisfied only seeing the ones we choose to look at at the price we're paying now for being 7 out with 6 to play on a team touted in February as the best RS team ever assembled. As Epstein said in February - even with what we knew or expected then, Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice and then Wake was not deep enough.

    The Phillies are where they are because they have the best starting rotation in baseball - not because they decided to fall back on something less than what was available.  The Yankees got lucky with Colon and Garcia, sometimes that's what happens. We're where we are because our starting pitching failed and we had substandard options to fill the gaps and here we sit 7 out and 2.5 up in the lost column for the WC. 

    Between Lackey, Bedard and Wake none would be any guarantee of being able to give a solid 6 innings in a 3rd game of the playoffs. Too few good starting options is our weakness and that weakness is not improved upon by assuming today that Wake is the only possible, affordable option under all circumstances.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    I will not be surprised to see Wake retire at the end of this season. If he doesn't..then I think the Red Sox have nothing to lose by keeping in on in 2012....maybe start him less often or use in long middle relief..you know..on the days when Lackey pitches.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Pay attention folks. Miller's 2011 ERA on the road is under 4.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ct-pitcher. Show ct-pitcher's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    Pay attention folks. Miller's 2011 ERA on the road is under 4.
    Posted by 1958lesspaul


    Not that the rest of the starters are anything much better - in September he's had 9 innings pitched with 16 hits, 13 earned runs and 8 walks for a 2.67 whip and a 13.0 ERA.

    Let him sleep
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from PetesCall. Show PetesCall's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Only if we are on a suicide mission!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Pete. Wakefield liked the bop commet.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Good God NO !!!! He is done and has been figured out by the league. He has not looked good in a start sine July. Pleas forget the allegiane here, he is past his prime, stop going out there and embarrassing yourself.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Garcia and Colon have been very good, on the 1 year veteran pitcher front, to name 2 veterans. Bedard and Harden are also 1 year veteran FA depth options.

    Nobody can honestly say they expected Colon and garcia to be that good. They will not cost $1M next year; that's for sure. I'd take both of them over Wake if we could get them for $2M each, but we can't.

    Beckett
    Lester
    Bucholz
    Lackey are all fixed to start out

    Need to sign 2 capable lower rotation depth veterans to one year contracts, which will be easy to do. All are far superior in capability to Wakefield.

    It's not easy. Look at Penny and Smoltz.

    Aceves spot starter
    Miller spot starter (emergency rotation member)
    Farm depth is Doubrant and/or Weiland

    DiceK would be 11 if he can pitch in last month or two of next season.

    I see a majority of people are smart enough to see how absurd Wastefield ceremonial Tour 1 was, and do not want to see Ceremonial Tour 2.

    Fact is that youth has not been given opportunity to handle starter depth and pen roles.

    We have no ready and healthy youth. You just don't every get that.

    Fact is that the Yankees are where they are in 2011 because they signed 2 veterans who were not 45 years old and did not carry 5 plus ERA. Yankees have given youth opportunity to pitch in rotation enough innings to fill out depth roles.

    Colon was no sure bet. He had missed 2010 and had ERAs over 5 in 3 of his previous 5 seasons. He never had over 100 IP after 2005. I never heard you say to sign him last winter.

    No possible way Wakefield and anything but a minor league contract can be justified. No way the trade, FA and farm does not provide far better options than a washed up 45 year old record ceremony bum. No way!

    The reality is that pride and prejudice is behind Wakefield quantity record roster spot ceremonial tour 1, and Wakefield propaganda is to attempt to provide cover for roster spot ceremonial tour 2.

    Oh, and by the way, the Yanks have 2 starters this year with an ERA over 5.28. Burnett at 5.28 in 31 starts and Hughes at 6.00 in 14 starts.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Good God NO !!!! He is done and has been figured out by the league. He has not looked good in a start sine July. Pleas forget the allegiane here, he is past his prime, stop going out there and embarrassing yourself.                     

    My sentiments, exactly.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Gready. Show Gready's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012? : Brilliant idea. Make crucial decisions based on just one game. Geeeesh!
    Posted by moonslav59


    I did say "for fun"...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    No extension. Time to move on. I watched Wakefield on a NESN recap show last night, and his belly is getting bigger and bigger like Santa Claus. That may be
    his next job.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    I still think we need the best option we can find at #5 and not rest on comparing everyone else's #5 against our options and saying we're fine. The lack of depth in this year's rotation means we look for better options - not be satisfied only seeing the ones we choose to look at at the price we're paying now for being 7 out with 6 to play on a team touted in February as the best RS team ever assembled. As Epstein said in February - even with what we knew or expected then, Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice and then Wake was not deep enough.

    You have missed my whole point. I do not want Wake back as out 5th starter. I have always been for upgrading the starters from the top, not the bottom...like the Penny and Smoltz year. I do not think we will have much money after keeping Papi and Paps, finding a RH'd OF'er, strengthening the pen and finding a quality 4/5 starter to build much depth beyond the 5 slot. I don't even want Lackey in the top 5. I'd love to see us get Buerhle or Wilson, but they will be costly. I hope we get someone good AND sign Wake for $1-1.5M to be our 6/7 guy (probably shared with Lackey and maybe Dice-K later in the season). I'd rather have Wake than Miller, Lackey and Weiland next year. I don't think Renaudo or other kids will be ready so soon. If Theo could find a Colon or Garcia and still get a Buerhle type guy, I'm fine with cutting Wake loose, but we all know it's a crapshoot getting lucky like Cashman did. For every Colon and Garcia, there are 50 Pennys and Smoltzs. We will not have any "sure bets" in our 6-9 starter slots next year. You're dreaming if you think we will.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    I still think we need the best option we can find at #5 and not rest on comparing everyone else's #5 against our options and saying we're fine. The lack of depth in this year's rotation means we look for better options - not be satisfied only seeing the ones we choose to look at at the price we're paying now for being 7 out with 6 to play on a team touted in February as the best RS team ever assembled. As Epstein said in February - even with what we knew or expected then, Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice and then Wake was not deep enough. You have missed my whole point. I do not want Wake back as out 5th starter. I have always been for upgrading the starters from the top, not the bottom...like the Penny and Smoltz year. I do not think we will have much money after keeping Papi and Paps, finding a RH'd OF'er, strengthening the pen and finding a quality 4/5 starter to build much depth beyond the 5 slot. I don't even want Lackey in the top 5. I'd love to see us get Buerhle or Wilson, but they will be costly. I hope we get someone good AND sign Wake for $1-1.5M to be our 6/7 guy (probably shared with Lackey and maybe Dice-K later in the season). I'd rather have Wake than Miller, Lackey and Weiland next year. I don't think Renaudo or other kids will be ready so soon. If Theo could find a Colon or Garcia and still get a Buerhle type guy, I'm fine with cutting Wake loose, but we all know it's a crapshoot getting lucky like Cashman did. For every Colon and Garcia, there are 50 Pennys and Smoltzs. We will not have any "sure bets" in our 6-9 starter slots next year. You're dreaming if you think we will.
    Posted by moonslav59
    That's good thinking moon. Is Buehrle a FA this fall?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    In Response to Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?:
    Pay attention folks. Miller's 2011 ERA on the road is under 4.
    Posted by 1958lesspaul



    The goalpost has been moved again.

    Tell us why miller won't revert to his career norm?
    Miller career "on the road":
    10-18  5.93 (1.813 WHIP)

    Sidenote:
    Here's the tough offensive opponents Miller has started against this year:

    H  SD    28th
    A  Pitt   27th
    H  Bal    14th
    A  Hou   25th
    A  TB      15th
    A  Bal     14th
    H  KC      8th
    A  CWS  19th
    A  KC       8th
    A  Tex    3rd
    H  Tex    3rd
    A  Tor     5th

    Average Road Opp ranking: 14.3
    When you consider he pitches in the AL where the  top 5 offenses reside (including 2 in his own division that he only faced once),  one can easily say he's had an easy ride.

    Andrew Miller has electric stuff. He always has. He is much younger than Wake, but is by no means a better gamble than Wake. He has 66 major league starts already. He's not a rookie.

    His career ERA is 5.80.
    His career WHIP: 1.732.
    His numbers this year are almost identical to his career numbers:
    5.63/1.828
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    The Phillies are where they are because they have the best starting rotation in baseball - not because they decided to fall back on something less than what was available.  The Yankees got lucky with Colon and Garcia, sometimes that's what happens. We're where we are because our starting pitching failed and we had substandard options to fill the gaps and here we sit 7 out and 2.5 up in the lost column for the WC. 

    The Phillies also went with Jamie Moyer for several years, including 19 starts last year at age 47. (By the way, Jamie had a 4.84 ERA last year, which compares to Wake's this year in the stronger offensive AL)

    Between Lackey, Bedard and Wake none would be any guarantee of being able to give a solid 6 innings in a 3rd game of the playoffs. Too few good starting options is our weakness and that weakness is not improved upon by assuming today that Wake is the only possible, affordable option under all circumstances.
     
    Look, I have been screaming for top quality starters for years. I wanted Felix, Halliday, and Cliff Lee 3 times. This deadline I called for trading for Wandy Rodriguez or a Guthrie type starter. I said Wake needed a break just before the time he started pitching poorly.

    I am not advocating for Wake as our 5th starter. I'd rather have him as out 7/8 guy, but I doubt Theo can sign a Buehrle and 2-3 Bartolo Colons. If he can and does. I'd be happy to send Wake packing.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Andrew Miller has electric stuff. He always has. He is much younger than Wake, but is by no means a better gamble than Wake


    Weak rebuttal. Miller isnt supposed to be a sure bet. But his road ERA in 2011 is a fact and is not undermined by listing who it was against.

    Wakefield isnt a gamble, he is a guaranteed 5 plus ERA no pen use wasted roster spot. A minor league contract is the only valid basis to player contract with this ceremonial bad case. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you Extend Wakefield to 2012?

    Why is road ERA suddenly the definitive measurement of a pitcher's skillset?

    Could it be because it's about the only stat Miller is better than Wake?

    Did you know Wake's road ERA is under your magic 5.00 Maginot Line?
     
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