Re: do you still like the trade?
posted at 8/23/2013 8:54 PM EDT
Never say never.
As nearly everyone know, I have been a huge Iggy supporter and wanted him starting since the beginning of 2012. That being said, I do not think Ben sees Iggy as anything more than a platoon IF'er. That's why he signed Drew. That's why he sent Iggy to AAA despite his hot start when Drew came off the DL. That's why he traded his "utility IF'er" for a pitcher under control until the end of 2014 who has numbers that place him in the top 30 starters in MLB since 2012.
Next year, even if we had Iggy, Ben & John were going to go with Boggy at SS and Middy at 3B with Cecchini breathing down Middy's back. Iggy was going to be the back-up next year- like it or not. We can argue the merits of that plan vs, say, Iggy at SS, Boggy at 3B, and Middy at 1B, but the fact is, the chances Iggy would have been our starting SS next year were slim. With that fact in mind, the trade was totally understandable and justified.
If there’s one thing Moon and I agree on it’s that Iggy never was going to be the SS for the Red Sox. It’s obvious now that the deck was stacked against him from the beginning.
The FO played the fans all along with Iggy. Someone in the FO committed to XBo as the SS of the future some time ago and that wasn’t going to change. They implied to us fans that Drew was a one-year stopgap because we already had "the SS of the future". After seeing Iggy, a slick fielding but light hitting SS in the minors it wasn't even a bit of a stretch to think that Iglasis WAS the SS of the future - so we bought into it. And the team began to win… more than anyone expected.
I now firmly believe they brought Iggy up initially so he could prove to the fans that he couldn't hit so the FO could justify trading him, a making room for their “Golden Boy”, - but Iggy double-crossed them and hit! So suddenly the FO had a problem on their hands. They had a SS who could play and whom the fans liked but he wasn’t the one the FO wanted for the future. The solution of course was easy. Trade him. Trade him for whatever the team needs for this unexpected stretch drive to make room for XBo. So they did. Problem solved.
You can say what you want to about his .500 average being unsustainable (true DUH!) or his BAPIP being high or that he’ll come back to his norm (both true), but the fact remains the guy was getting on base and playing great defense while he was doing it – often at not his best position. Then when Iggy started to come back to his offensive norm the hue and cry went up, “See! We told you he couldn’t hit!” So rather than allow him to come back to his norm and see where it would be, they traded him – ostensibly and partly in their quest for the playoffs this year.
If this trade works and Peavy is what they hope he’ll be, so much the better, but it’s obvious now that the goal of the trade was to get rid of Iglasis to make room for Bogarts – who still has never played an out at SS.
The point of this, of course, is that Moon was right. Iggy was never going to be the SS in Boston and he’s better off in Detroit or wherever he lands. And never believe the RS front office.
Personally, I'd have lovedd to see Iggy as our SS for the next 4+ years and Boggy, Middy and Cecchini fighting over the 3B and 1B jobs for many years to come. I was not for this trade for that reason, but I am also a fan that recognizes that pitching is so very important. I like Peavy as a starter. He's better than many here want to admit. He wasn't a 2 month rental. With ot without Buch, having Peavy greatly improves our staff both this year and next.
To get the 2012 to 2013 starting pitcher sample size to 150 pitchers (30 teams times 5 starters) you have to go down to 140 IP. It is my opinion that a top 30 starter is a 1 slot starter. The term "ace" is subjective, so I won't call Peavy an ace, but here is how he places in several key categories of judging pitchers' skillset...
WAR 23rd at 6.0 (close to CCSab, Greinke, and Strasburg)
WHIP 13th at 1.11
ERA- 38th at 86 (but 17th out of 67 AL starters)
ERA 54th at 3.65 (22nd out of 67 AL starters)
tERA 18th out of 67 in AL
SIERA 14th out of 67 in AL
xFIP 67th at 3.93
He's easily classified as a number 2 starter. One could argue low #1.