Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In a way we already spent big this winter:

    AGon from $6.3M to $22M  (avg salary cost per year) 
    Buch from $555K to $7.5M (avg salary cost per year)

    That's an additional $22.7M for just those 2 players.

    That eats up almost all of the gains we got by losing Drew and Paps.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]Oh come on. We spent tons last winter and didn't make the playoffs. Money can buy you love, Beatles told us that.  What we need is in our minor league. Some kids who wants it so bad they are taken BP betweens shots at McDonald's. If you build it, can't you hear it?  
    Posted by proftom[/QUOTE]

    Sorry Tom - but the Beatles said "Can't Buy Me Love"
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team. : Amen bruddah. My first objection is that I refuse to be labled as EEII by the 97% of the league that spends less than us.  We are, over a long period, the #2 spending team in BB.  Just shut up already.  Just stop.  It's embarrassing.  If you don't like being the #2 spender in BB, then root for the EE I.  There is no alternative.  We will never outspend them. My second objection is that it is still early December.  Still lots of players unsigned, still lots of players to be traded.  Still decisions to be made about whether we need 1 SP, 2 SPs, etc. The time to object about spending was last year when we spent too much on CC. Lastly, as you said, we are still a premier team.  As I've said before, I'm willing to make a friendly bet.  Anyone can take any team in the league, except for the NYY and the Phillies, and I'll bet a tag line that we have more wins than that team.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    Got your back on this one....How true you are........
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team. : Look for yourself... http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011-roster.shtml As you can see, after the arb signings we are estimated at about $161M. Add Papi's $12-14M and we'll be at about $173-175M. That puts us just under the $178M limit. Remember, the AGon extension is abig bump. Buch was extended as well, so there goes a few million there. That more than makes up for the loss of Drew.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I'm not sure where you are getting numbers from.

    Gonzo, CC, Beck, Lackey, Youk, Dice, Pedroia, Lester, Jenks, Scutaro, Buch, Iglesias, Miller, all combine for $132.4.  Add $13 for Papi, $7 for Ells.  That's $152.4M.  Albers, Salty, Aceves, Aviles, Lowrie, Dmac, Bard, Morales for ~ $10M.  I have $162-163M.  In one form or another, that makes for two decent $ options, and two cheap options.  I assume RF will be a cheap Reddck/DMac option, leaving maybe $9M for a closer and 6M or so for another SP to partner with Bard or Aceves.

    We don't have a lot of room, but I don't think we're quite to the wall yet.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    we already have a bunch of well paid/ and overpaid talent.  It's not like we have become the Oakland A's in one year because we haven't spent in the offseason.

    Heck if some teams can go out and compete with a 40 million dollar payroll, we should be able to at least add some pieces to what we got and compete.

    People forget we still have more talent than just about any team, and last years outcome doesn't guarantee this years outcome.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]Welcome to Pittsburgh/Kansas City/Oakland frame of mind. Well let’s be honest. The bottom line is that the Sox don’t want to go over the $178 million luxury tax threshold. Ben is telling us that we don’t need a new model; just a little tinkering with the engine. That’s okay if you made it deep into the playoffs last year but the Sox haven’t made it to the post season the last two years. The fact is to win a championship, you need an effective closer. We had one in Jonathan Papelbon. He’s gone to Philadelphia. Are they going to sign Ryan Madson? We know closer by committee doesn’t work. What about a solid veteran right fielder? Because we resigned David Ortiz the Sox won’t go after Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Beltran because of the cost. Would you like an effective starting pitcher like a Roy Oswalt? Forget it. Only a low cost pitcher will be signing on. Didn’t we go that route a couple of years ago with the likes of Brad Penny? How did that work out? And would you like to see Yu Darvish work with Bobby Valentine? Sorry not this year. Bobby Valentine may be a great manager but without an effective closer and a good starting rotation, he will have a hard time leading this team deep into the playoffs. And one other thing. Ben says we already have a solid front three in the rotation. I still have a big question mark. Does the Sox really have a number one pitcher like Pedro or Curt? Does Lester Or Beckett have the bull dog determination, the heart and sole of a true competitor during the September heat of a pennant race? Beckett did in 2007, but can he do it again? Can he pitch with his nagging injuries and give the Sox 200 plus innings and be a stopper? Can Lester finally be that kind of pitcher? What is the durability of a Buchholz? Can he go out and give us 200 innings also? I say the Sox should do the right thing and sign Madson and put in a bid for Darvish. Give Bobby V the tools to bring home another championship.
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]

    Really? It doesn't work?  Hhether they wanted to or not, the reigining baseball champs had a closer by committee...
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    Really Boston's roster is all set for the infielders and outfielders.  All they can do make a trade for pitchings as well to spend remaining $$$ for remaining pitchers.

    If you look at the Phillies, they lost Rollins/Madson/Ibanez/Oswalt/Lidge, but added Papelbon/Thome/Nix.  Or if you look at Detriot, they soon will lose Betimet, Ordonez, Gillen/etc, but only signed Laird and Dotel.  So meaning their payroll is about the same as last year.  

    So there are alot of teams that have substractions and additions, but their payroll is about slightly the same from last year except probably Marlins/Angels.

    Seriously, Boston will have alot of $$ coming off of the book where Youkilis, Papi (if he signed for one year), Scutaro, Dice K, Jenks, Miller, etc all will be a free agents after the 2012 season.  And then I see that the free agents for the 2012 winter season are a good ones!!!  

    Save $$$ for these players after the 2012 season.

    Boston can try to go young such as to play alot of youngers players like Lavarnway, Wieland, Tawaza, Bowen, Reddick, Kalish, Middlebrook, etc.  And test them if they are going to be a real raw deal Major League players!!!  If not, they can just trade them cuz half of them are already past age of 25!!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team. : I'm not sure where you are getting numbers from. Gonzo, CC, Beck, Lackey, Youk, Dice, Pedroia, Lester, Jenks, Scutaro, Buch, Iglesias, Miller, all combine for $132.4.  Add $13 for Papi, $7 for Ells.  That's $152.4M.  Albers, Salty, Aceves, Aviles, Lowrie, Dmac, Bard, Morales for ~ $10M.  I have $162-163M.  In one form or another, that makes for two decent $ options, and two cheap options.  I assume RF will be a cheap Reddck/DMac option, leaving maybe $9M for a closer and 6M or so for another SP to partner with Bard or Aceves. We don't have a lot of room, but I don't think we're quite to the wall yet.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]
    Are you using each player's actual 2012 salary or the AAV of each player with a long-term contract?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]Oh come on. We spent tons last winter and didn't make the playoffs. Money can buy you love, Beatles told us that.  What we need is in our minor league. Some kids who wants it so bad they are taken BP betweens shots at McDonald's. If you build it, can't you hear it?  
    Posted by proftom[/QUOTE]

    CAN'T!!

    CAN'T!!

    The name of that song is "Can't Buy Me Love."  The exact opposite of your point.

    I love that you are making Beatles' references, but please get the songs right...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team. : Are you using each player's actual 2012 salary or the AAV of each player with a long-term contract?
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    To be honest, I used salary, but even in retrospect, I'm not sure it makes much difference.  Buch goes up $4M, but a few of them come down by about $1M if you use AAV.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    I'm not sure where you are getting numbers from.

    Gonzo, CC, Beck, Lackey, Youk, Dice, Pedroia, Lester, Jenks, Scutaro, Buch, Iglesias, Miller, all combine for $132.4.  Add $13 for Papi, $7 for Ells.  That's $152.4M.  Albers, Salty, Aceves, Aviles, Lowrie, Dmac, Bard, Morales for ~ $10M.  I have $162-163M.  In one form or another, that makes for two decent $ options, and two cheap options.  I assume RF will be a cheap Reddck/DMac option, leaving maybe $9M for a closer and 6M or so for another SP to partner with Bard or Aceves.

    We don't have a lot of room, but I don't think we're quite to the wall yet.

    I provided the link.

    The luxury tax is based on the average salary of the contract not 2012 salary.

    Trust me, I went through every salary average and after arb signings we will be at about $161M. We may let some arbs go or trade them, but the effect will be minimal. Then there is Papi. His signing should be about $12-14M/1 yr or $21-22M/2, so the hit on the luxury tax payroll will be $12-14M on 2012. 

    Our payroll number will be between $172 and $175M. Then, add the pension contribution of about $2M (softy's figure). Now we're at $174-177M. The luxury tax limit is $178M.

    We are at "the wall". We can go over the wall if Henry says so, but it appears we will not go over by much.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    To be honest, I used salary, but even in retrospect, I'm not sure it makes much difference.  Buch goes up $4M, but a few of them come down by about $1M if you use AAV.

    AGon went up $16M or so.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]To be honest, I used salary, but even in retrospect, I'm not sure it makes much difference.  Buch goes up $4M, but a few of them come down by about $1M if you use AAV. AGon went up $16M or so.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I used Cots.  He was in at cost since his AAV ~ salary.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]I'm not sure where you are getting numbers from. Gonzo, CC, Beck, Lackey, Youk, Dice, Pedroia, Lester, Jenks, Scutaro, Buch, Iglesias, Miller, all combine for $132.4.  Add $13 for Papi, $7 for Ells.  That's $152.4M.  Albers, Salty, Aceves, Aviles, Lowrie, Dmac, Bard, Morales for ~ $10M.  I have $162-163M.  In one form or another, that makes for two decent $ options, and two cheap options.  I assume RF will be a cheap Reddck/DMac option, leaving maybe $9M for a closer and 6M or so for another SP to partner with Bard or Aceves. We don't have a lot of room, but I don't think we're quite to the wall yet. I provided the link. The luxury tax is based on the average salary of the contract not 2012 salary. Trust me, I went through every salary average and after arb signings we will be at about $161M. We may let some arbs go or trade them, but the effect will be minimal. Then there is Papi. His signing should be about $12-14M/1 yr or $21-22M/2, so the hit on the luxury tax payroll will be $12-14M on 2012.  Our payroll number will be between $172 and $175M. Then, add the pension contribution of about $2M (softy's figure). Now we're at $174-177M. The luxury tax limit is $178M. We are at "the wall". We can go over the wall if Henry says so, but it appears we will not go over by much.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]


    They have $31.5M in arb costs.  According to MLBRumors, it is more like $18M.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxlaxer12. Show redsoxlaxer12's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    The biggest small market team in the history of the MLB.... 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team. : They have $31.5M in arb costs.  According to MLBRumors, it is more like $18M.
    Posted by Joebreidey[/QUOTE]

    Cots has us at $132.5M before arbs. If you are right about your $18M number, that would take us to $150.5M before Papi.  That's about $10M off from baseball ref's projection. All though many of our arb cases are in their first year, which is notorius for not giving huge raises, some of our players had exceptional years, and Baseball Reference made it's projection on 3 year average settlements for 1-2-3-4 year arb players. It's hard to imagine Ellsbury, Aceves, Bard, and Salty getting less than the average settlement. Lowrie, Albers & Aviles should get close to the average. Only Atchison & Morales might get less. Theo had a perfect record of never going to arb. I wonder if that philosophy will continue. My guess is the 9-10 players will probably be signed for somewhere between your number and Baseball Ref's ($18M and $31.5M). 

    Remember, Ellsbury went from $440K to $2.4M after being hurt the year before his first arb would have happened. I have to think Bard and Aceves should get that or more in their first year, but I could be wrong.

    Here are the arbs... 
    (some may be non-tendered or traded after signing)

    Player   '11$     arb/total arb yrs
    Ellsbury $2.4M 3/4 arbs
    Aceves  $650K 1/3 arbs
    Bard       $505K 1/4 arbs
    Salty      $750K 2/3 arbs
    Lowrie    $450K 1/3 arbs  (May be traded after signing)
    Albers    $875K 3/4 arbs
    Aviles     $640K 1/3 arbs
    Atchison$440K 1/4 arbs
    Morales $424K 1/3 arbs

    DMac     $470K  pre-arb
    Doubr    $417K pre-arb
    Tazawa  $1.1M pre-arb
    R Hill??
    Oki ??

    For argument's sake, let's say they all cost us $22.5M and we trade Lowrie and save $1M there. That puts us at about $153M before Papi.
    After Papi will bring us to $166M-168M. Add the $2M pension cost and we're still at about $168-170M, leaving us just $8-10M to stay under the threshold. We may also want to save a bit of room for July.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    Nice work Moon , thanks for the input.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    For argument's sake, let's say they all cost us $22.5M and we trade Lowrie and save $1M there. That puts us at about $153M before Papi.
    After Papi will bring us to $166M-168M. Add the $2M pension cost and we're still at about $168-170M, leaving us just $8-10M to stay under the threshold. We may also want to save a bit of room for July.

    To continue...

    It's hard to imagine we can fill our pen and get a capable RH'd bat for RF with just $9M.
    I think we can try and trade away some salary to free up more room, but who?

    I'd prefer to have Iggy at SS FT than Scutaro, but I do not see that happening. We owe Iggy $2M for '12 and $2M for '13, so I think if we won't play him, trade him. (If we do deal Scutaro or Iggy, then Lowrie will probably stay.) That would free up $2M (Iggy) to $6M (Scutty). We could trade DMac, but replacing him on the 40 man roster would maybe save us just $100-200K. Trading Miller would save us about $600K in differential.  Trading Salty could net us something valuable, and then we pin our hopes on Lava. We could trade Jenks and eat some of his salary to save a few million. Those are probably the least impact trades possible.

    A more extreme approach would be to trade Youk ($12.5M) and move Scutaro to 3B and use Iggy/Aviles at SS with Lowrie at 3B/2B/SS. It's not likely we can find a trade partner who will give us quality pitching for Youk, but maybe we could trade him for prospects and then flip the prospects for a good arm or two.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    Right now Boston is having a harder time to make a trade with anyone.  I guess ithat is because these teams are just taking their time and hoping that the asking price for all free agents goes down by week to week toward to mid-January.  If these teams think their asking price are still too high by mid-January, they can give Boston a call to ask for Lowrie or Scutaro or Iggy or Youkilis or Reddick or etc.  

    That is why I strongly think Boston will spend the whole winter season to make an one strong 25 man roster!!!

    Guess we all have to be patient!!!!


     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]Right now Boston is having a harder time to make a trade with anyone.  I guess ithat is because these teams are just taking their time and hoping that the asking price for all free agents goes down by week to week toward to mid-January.  If these teams think their asking price are still too high by mid-January, they can give Boston a call to ask for Lowrie or Scutaro or Iggy or Youkilis or Reddick or etc.   That is why I strongly think Boston will spend the whole winter season to make an one strong 25 man roster!!! Guess we all have to be patient!!!!
    Posted by GoUconn13[/QUOTE]
    While the Red Sox wait for other teams to reduce their demands, the other teams are waiting for the Red Sox to reduce their demands.

    We still have two months until pitchers and catchers report.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    Re-signing Wakefield is becoming more and more prudent each day that goes by.
    As a #5, he is certainly more than adequate,  which leaves only one starter position to fill. I really don't think Aceves has the durability to go through the years as a starter, and Bard may have the stamina, but lacks experience. Miller is an option but he is shaky.
    Oswalt is probably the best option out there.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    I hope we don't pencil in Wake as our number 5, unless we get a very good #4. I see Wake as a cheap option for a 6/7 slot guy.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    In Response to Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.:
    [QUOTE]I hope we don't pencil in Wake as our number 5, unless we get a very good #4. I see Wake as a cheap option for a 6/7 slot guy.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    If it helps, Wake would really be the ~#7 guy after accounting for #4 and Dice.  We would really only need a half season from Wake barring any setbacks for Dice-K.  I'd love to see the Sox go after Joe Saunders who was just non-tendered.  The Sox have plenty of time to find the best man for the job (within their budget) before having to make a decision on Wake though.  I see him as more of a last resort.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you think it's right? The Red Sox ownership this winter is acting like a small market team.

    A more extreme approach would be to trade Youk ($12.5M) and move Scutaro to 3B and use Iggy/Aviles at SS with Lowrie at 3B/2B/SS. It's not likely we can find a trade partner who will give us quality pitching for Youk, but maybe we could trade him for prospects and then flip the prospects for a good arm or two.

    That's the direction I'd take.  You could free up money trading Scutaro, but ideally Iglesias gets another year in the minors.  The target team I'd have for him would be the WS.  They got almost nothing out of 3B.  It looks like they are retrenching, and not taking on salary, but Youk would be a substantial upgrade at 3B.  I'd flip him for Floyd, and apply the ~ $5M in savings to the BP.
     
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