Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/dodgers-to-extend-clayton-kershaw.html

     

    I figured this deserved a thread. Biggest deal ever for a pitcher and first contract with $30 million AAV.

    Think they'll still be in on Tanaka for $100 million-plus? Wow.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Tanaka is coming to Boston.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    This will likely push Jon Lester's market value up into the 23-25 mil per year range.  I was hoping they'd be able to sign him for around 5/100m, but now its looking closer to a 6/135-140m deal for Lester...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million


    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 4m

    Jon Lester is not going to get Kershaw money. But that deal benefits all starters. #redsox

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    This deal certainly raises the bar a bit for starting pitcher deals.  But, I am not sure that it puts Tanaka through the roof.  He is still unproven in the bigs.  Kershaw is the real deal no question hands down.  Its sort of apples and oranges.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrmojo1120. Show mrmojo1120's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Nice paper if you cam get it.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/dodgers-to-extend-clayton-kershaw.html

     

    I figured this deserved a thread. Biggest deal ever for a pitcher and first contract with $30 million AAV.

    Think they'll still be in on Tanaka for $100 million-plus? Wow.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ya I was just thinking the same thing,  $30 mill + per year for kershaw, plus grienke making $26 mill, beckett  at $17 mill, billingsly at 12 mill, haren at $10 and ryu at $4.3. I find it hard to believe they will still be in the running for tanaka witht that many expensive starters under contract. Right now with kershaws contract they are projected to have a $241 mill payroll for 2014. That being said, if they really want tanaka, the only way I could see that happening is if they move matt kemp and his big contract. The next 9 days should be interesting to say the least. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Marioguy424. Show Marioguy424's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

     Kershaw is the best pitcher this league has seen since the trio of Pedro, Johnson, and Maddux. No one deserves that kind of money, but I'd rather give it to Kershaw than anybody else.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    The Dodgers have five players who are making more than $20 million per year.  

    The rest of the NL has six players who are making more than $20 million per year.  

    It's a great time to be a great baseball player.   Laughing

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    This doesn't preclude them from signing Tanaka but the likelihood of it took a MAJOR hit.

    The Yanks are probably the front runner now.

    To me, Lester was going to get $140 mil plus anyway. Grienke signed for $147 mil. Lester probably is in that conversation.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/dodgers-to-extend-clayton-kershaw.html

     

    I figured this deserved a thread. Biggest deal ever for a pitcher and first contract with $30 million AAV.

    Think they'll still be in on Tanaka for $100 million-plus? Wow.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm going dizzy with this Yankee/Dodger approach to long term contract spending.  Kershaw is a solid pitcher but 215mil for 7 years?

    WOW!

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    At least Kershaw is only 25 years old.  And Kershaw can opt out after the fifth year of his new contract.  

    It must be nice to get a $215 million contract at the age of 25.  When I was 25, I finally paid off my student loans from college.   LOL   Laughing

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This will likely push Jon Lester's market value up into the 23-25 mil per year range.  I was hoping they'd be able to sign him for around 5/100m, but now its looking closer to a 6/135-140m deal for Lester...

    [/QUOTE]

    Baseball Refference has Kershaw at 6.83 WAR average over the last 3 seasons. At 6 million per WAR, thats 41 million a year. Add the fact he is 25 and will not likely be getting worse any time soon and you could agrue this is a bargain.

    Lester on the other hand has averaged 2.7 WAR the last 3 seasons. At 6 million a year that is 16.2 million. Add the fact that Lester is 30 and that the last two seasons Lesters WAR is even worse[1.9] and Kershaw is even better[7.0] and the idea that Kershaw and Lester are even in the same ball park does not make sense.

    Lester is not Kershaw. He is not Cole Hamels either. He is less then a 20 million dollar pitcher.

    I think Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson are better comps. And they are getting 16 and 17 million a year.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Smart move by Dodgers, now they go after Tanaka.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from HankukSox. Show HankukSox's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    The only thing this really makes me think is..  Well actually two things.  Lester's value is up, as many have stated, with this deal.  And...  Thank god the Sox have been stockpiling pitching in the minors, because the new SP cost plateau has been reached, and I expect it will only be 3-5 years before the next is reached.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    It gets crazier and crazier. What else can you say ?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Lester should get at least 5/100M deal.

    You cant really go by what LAD and NYY pay guys. Thats not the norm. But I fingure 20-23M per over 4-5 years for Lester is realistic.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Tanaka is coming to Boston.

    You think so, Space? I certainly would not complain, but I'd be very surprised.

     Kershaw is the best pitcher this league has seen since the trio of Pedro, Johnson, and Maddux. No one deserves that kind of money, but I'd rather give it to Kershaw than anybody else.

    I agree. The thought of paying any player $30 million per year seems crazy, but if you're going to do it, you might as well give that deal to a guy who has yet to turn 26 and is already the best pitcher in baseball. His last several seasons have been all but Koufaxian...and because he will only be 32 at the end of the contract (and could opt out at 30), there is far less risk here than there is with most long-term mega-deals.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hingham Hammer. Show Hingham Hammer's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/dodgers-to-extend-clayton-kershaw.html

     

    I figured this deserved a thread. Biggest deal ever for a pitcher and first contract with $30 million AAV.

    Think they'll still be in on Tanaka for $100 million-plus? Wow.

    [/QUOTE]

         "Think they'll still be in on Tanaka"

              No doubt the Dodgers will be in. That organization prints money the way the George's yankees used to. With showtime running that team they just don'want to win they want to dominate.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This will likely push Jon Lester's market value up into the 23-25 mil per year range.  I was hoping they'd be able to sign him for around 5/100m, but now its looking closer to a 6/135-140m deal for Lester...

    [/QUOTE]

    Baseball Refference has Kershaw at 6.83 WAR average over the last 3 seasons. At 6 million per WAR, thats 41 million a year. Add the fact he is 25 and will not likely be getting worse any time soon and you could agrue this is a bargain.

    Lester on the other hand has averaged 2.7 WAR the last 3 seasons. At 6 million a year that is 16.2 million. Add the fact that Lester is 30 and that the last two seasons Lesters WAR is even worse[1.9] and Kershaw is even better[7.0] and the idea that Kershaw and Lester are even in the same ball park does not make sense.

    Lester is not Kershaw. He is not Cole Hamels either. He is less then a 20 million dollar pitcher.

    I think Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson are better comps. And they are getting 16 and 17 million a year.

    [/QUOTE]

    I would agree that Lester today is not in Kershaws league given thier respective perfromances in the last two years, but his signing does and will effect the cost of signing top of the rotation free agent starters and will have a trickle down effect on all pitchers salaries moving forward. David Price and his agent are both having a champagne breakfast this morning....The Ray's front office are probably shaking thier heads..

    That said, If Lester were on the market this offseason after his postseason performance and his body of work career to date, given he's healthy, he'd be the number 1 target, too include Tanaka. When Weaver and Wislon's signed thier contracts. I believe Santana and Sabathia represented the top end @ 23M per. Weaver signed an extension with the Angels and thus never went to market. Both he and Wilson's deals were in line with free agent contracts signed by Lackey and AJ Burnett. Top end guys were in the 20M to 23M range with the second tier in the 16M to 18M range....In 2013 the Tigers inflated the market for top guys when they signed Verlander to a 7/180M extension, where starting in 2015 he'll make 28M per for four years....Kershaw's deal has now set another bar @ 30M. So if we use basic math, Weaver's annual salary at the time calculates to 73% of the value of Sabathia's.

    Thus if the market follows the same pattern and Lester falls into the same category in terms of comp wages and perfromance profile as Weaver to Sabathia based on the math of 73% of the top wage of 30M, he'd be in line for a minimum of 22M. As a free agent if he pitches well in 2014 30 starts, 210 innings with a sub 3.75 ERA and almost as important finishes the year healthy....it's not a huge leap to assume he'd get offers in the 4 to 5 year range @ 24 to 26M per...

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Jon Lester today: Entering age 30 season - caeer 100-56, 3.76 ERA, 117 ERA+, 1.30 WHIP

    Zach Greinke, at time of his FA contract: Entering age 29 season - career 91-78, 3.77 ERA, 114 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP

    They are a lot more comparable than people think over their careers.

    Then there's this:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/gammons-on-top-starters-shields-blue-jays-drew-polanco.html

    James Shields has let the Royals know that he is looking to score a contract on the magnitude of Zach Greinke's six-year, $147MM deal.  (Per Peter Gammons)

    This is Shields' career to date: Entering age 32 season - career 100-82, 3.79 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.23 WHIP

     

    Shields may not get Greinke's contract, but I think he can make a good case for himself...as can Lester. If the Sox want to retain him, they will have to pay.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from practial. Show practial's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    This is NUTS

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jon Lester today: Entering age 30 season - caeer 100-56, 3.76 ERA, 117 ERA+, 1.30 WHIP

    Zach Greinke, at time of his FA contract: Entering age 29 season - career 91-78, 3.77 ERA, 114 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP

    They are a lot more comparable than people think over their careers.

    Then there's this:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/gammons-on-top-starters-shields-blue-jays-drew-polanco.html

    James Shields has let the Royals know that he is looking to score a contract on the magnitude of Zach Greinke's six-year, $147MM deal.  (Per Peter Gammons)

    This is Shields' career to date: Entering age 32 season - career 100-82, 3.79 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.23 WHIP

     

    Shields may not get Greinke's contract, but I think he can make a good case for himself...as can Lester. If the Sox want to retain him, they will have to pay.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree...Grienke does have a CY Young....Lester has two rings....

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    he has a TON of innings on his arm already.  this move will be a disaster in 3 or 4 years.

    name a lefty with that many IP before 25 that pitched well at 30?

     

     
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