Re: Dodgers OF's available...what about Matt Kemp??
posted at 11/10/2013 1:38 PM EST
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Peavy, Morales, Lava and Middy for Kemp and erase our $3.9M payments from the last trade.
Too much. At this point, Kemp looks like a negative value to me. And while we would get some minor salary relief for Peavy and the $3.9, it isn't as much as it seems. If we ate maybe $2-3M of Peavy's salary, we'd get a decent prospect, imho. And the other 3.9 * 2 is pure profit. But I don't think that is enough to offset Kemp's $21M+ cost. Plus losing WMB? Too much.
- Injured the past two years
- A 179/62 K/W over those two years
- Except for his breakout year, his OPS generally runs in the .820 range. Very good for a CF, but not off the charts good.
- His contract runs to age 34. Not quite a retirement contract, but a contract where 2 of his 6 years are eroding skill years.
The way I look at it, he is an Ellsbury-equivalent player. I guess a little upside on pure talent, but more 'everyday' injury-prone. So if we could get an Ellsbury clone for even $19M, assuming LA kicks in $12M, then why not get the Ellsbury we already have.
Plus, when do we go with our prospects? We can't wait on everyone of them to prove themselves a star. I'd go with JBJ over Kemp without a second thought.
Ethier has averaged 500 PA's the past 3 seasons with .285/.360/.800 numbers, 15 HR's and the ability to play all 3 OF positions.
The 4/71 he is owed ages 32-35 is in line with the yearly $ we would desire to pay Ellsbury. The 5/90 Pence signed for being the contract I assume the Sox would love to have Ells here at.
But, the Dodgers have indicated they are willing to pay as much as 20-25 million of that contract to a team that takes him off their hands. Considering they would easily pay 10m on the open market for a 5 starter with no draft compensation like Dempster on a 1 year deal (leaving the years after 2014 free for the monster Kershaw extension) I think Dempster and maybe a Kalish type minor leaguer thrown in would be a good deal.
The Dodgers then give the Sox back the 4m we agreed to pay them the next 3 years. Plus an additional 2m for Ethier in the last 3 years of his deal and they pay 1m of his 2.5m BO in '18 if we don't pick up the option.
2014 - Save 2 million (Dempster 13.5m + 4m) Ethier makes 15.5
2015 - We pay Ethier 12 million, Dodgers give back 6
2016 - 12m, LA 6
2017 - 15.5m, LA 2
2018 - LA pays 1m of his 2.5m BO (or Sox can pick up a 17.5m option for a 35-36 yr old)
Total: The 39 million we just gave Victorino, s VERY similat profile player, is all we are on the hook for with Ethier over the next 4 years. The first of which he can play in CF as JBJ gets a much needed 1 more season in AAA, before moving over to LF for him in '15 when Gomes is gone and maybe RF the last 2 years when Shane is gone.