Re: Down on the Farm - Renaudo and Owens
posted at 8/22/2013 11:19 PM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
They will probably trade Dempster in the offseason. He is the oddman out and his contract IS movable. Salty WILL be on this team next season. If negotiations on his long term deal don't come to fruition then worst case scenario the sox give him a QO which lowers his value to other teams and he DEFINITELY accepts that. but i doubt it even comes to that TBH.
Lackey is probably the most "moveable" SP, since he has the 2015 team option at minimum salary. I do think we try to move Dempster, but may have to eat $3-5M of his deal just to get a minimal return prospect.
that's not the point, it would be a salary dump.
Yes, I get that point and would rather do that than trade Lackey.
if we resign Ells and Salty we still have a lot of resources left to fill the other holes in our team. We'd still have some cash left over and moreso if we make a salary dump trade. Our farm system is STACKED and not all of those guys are going to pan out. Get value for them while you can. Go into 2014 with the notion that Middy is your starting 3Bman and Xander the SS. Sign a bridge infielder as insurance for the two.
I agree that this could happen, although I still think someone will way overbid for Ellsbury and he will bolt. Assuming we keep Ellsbury and Salty, ideally, we should look to sign a player that can play 1B anbd 3B for a one year deal. However, we still would have failed to fill one of our two biggest need areas:
1) A true ace pictehr that is durable and reliable.
Its pretty unrealistic to think we get one of these in the offseason regardless of whether we get Jacoby and/or Salty. No one is giving away ToR pitchers. You have to develop them for the most part. Or wait for one to hit FA and pay a guy who only plays every 5 days 150M+
I didn't mention it here, but on other threads, I stated that this probably isn't the year to acquire an ace. Last winter's FA pitchers ddin't really offer anyone I liked a lot, although I did think spending on A Sanchez would have been better than signing Dempster, Victorino and Drew, which cost about the same.
2) A true middle of the order stud.
I don't see any FA that fits these roles, so a trade would have to happen. That would mean opening new holes at other slots or trading top prospects for someone like Stanton.
Some might argue that this would be a better route than letting jacoby and/or salty walk and throwing money at outsiders hoping they can play in Boston.
that just leaves first base which at the very worst turns out to be a Nava/Carp platoon. You could do worse there but obviously don't want that to be plan A. Sox could sign Corey Hart to a 1 year, incentive laden "value building" deal as he is coming off of an injury. Kendrys Morales is another option but he would likely be more expensive and IMO not as good as Hart (who also plays the OF).
I like Morales, but he may be looking for a 3+ year deal.
Hart is a much better option IMO. He has the better track record and plays multiple positions at a higher defensive level than Morales.. and like i said, his injury status might allow us to entice him with a year playing in Fenway and the rest of the hitter friendly ALE parks and he can cash in the following offseason. Always a possibility.
I see your point, but think Morales for a one year deal would fit nicely in Boston.
We have the assets available to field a team consisting of any combination of those names above.
Can we keep Ellsbury, Salty and fill one of the two big needs I listed above? To me, that's the only way we can become a top 2 favorite for 2014 and beyond. (Now, there's a chance Boggy can become"that guy", but counting on that for 2014 is a bit much, in my opinion.
we don't have 1 of those now and we're a top 2 favorite to reach the WS. Who are you signing with the money leftover from not getting Ells that is going to magically make us a WS favorite despite just losing one of our best players?
I said, even if we get Ells and Salty, we'll still need someone else to make us a top contender. Someone like Stanton. We may be top 2 favorite to win the AL, but one could also argue we are the 4th or 5th favorite as well. (Det, TB, TX, Oak/Bos)
I still think Ellsbury will walk, so I'll answer your question anyways. We'd have to sign McCann or Salty just to stay about even at catcher. Then, we'd have to trade for a guy like Stanton. We'd have to sign Morales, Morneau or Hart at 1B, and probably bring Drew back or find a better corner IF'er and stick with Boggy at SS. It won't be easy, unless we seriously upgrade our staff to compensate for the loss on offense.