Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    :17
    [Comment From Chicago MarkChicago Mark: ]
    What do you AND ZIPS think about Ellsbury next year? How much of a drop off can you see?
    Monday November 14, 2011 1:17 Chicago Mark
    1:18
    Dan Szymborski:
    ZiPS has him at 290/345/457, I'm a little more optimistic, but not *that* much.
    Monday November 14, 2011 1:18 Dan Szymborski
    1:18
    Dan Szymborski:
    People tend to overrate the impact going forward of breakout seasons.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-111411/
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    See career median average.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Time will tell. Place your bets.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Sell Elsbury stock and buy short.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    You'd think that Dan S and the population of the "sabermetrics community" could find something better to do with their lives.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    See career median average.
    Posted by hankwilliams

    I'm somewhat okay with that if an only if 2010 numbers are not included for reasons any sensable baseball fan should know. I expect him to perform above those averages. Expectations and predictions......we all know they are not fact. We will just have to wait and see. I of course hope Ells stays and performs above last years numbers.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    If healthy, what to say he doesn't or can't better his 2011 season stats? Before his lost season of 2010, he showed improvement from 2008 to 2009 and was just entering his prime...Last year at 27 and this year at 28 represents the peak of his prime years...

    Thus it's not out of the realm of probabilty that he can and will, indeed match and/or sustain his 2011 production for the next 3 or 4 years. To me the key to his success is to continue to stay within himself and not show up next year trying to be a 40 homer guy and simply let the game come to him...If he does then by years end, he'll post some pretty good numbers. The kid can hit...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    You can't always go by median when someone is on the right side of their prime and their stats have gone up every full season they've played.


    .311 ba
    22 HR
    41 SB
    40 2B
    6 3B
    .370 OBP

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    .295 BA
    18 HR
    53 SB
    43 2B
    10 3B
    .345 OBP
    83 RBI
    120 R
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from coachzap. Show coachzap's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Seanny, As a 28 yr old just entering his prime his average will drop 30 points, RBI's 22 and HR's 13 ? Ok. Come back when he hits 18 HR's at the All Star break.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from coachzap. Show coachzap's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    See career median average.
    Posted by hankwilliams


    Hank the Skank you should get a lifetam ban for even offering up a comment about Ellsbury. He has made you look stupid beyond belief. Do you still want Cameron as our CFer? LOL Idiot.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    Seanny, As a 28 yr old just entering his prime his average will drop 30 points, RBI's 22 and HR's 13 ? Ok. Come back when he hits 18 HR's at the All Star break.
    Posted by coachzap


    Do you expect the leadoff hitter to repeat his numbers which are numbers #3-4 hitters produce? I might be way off on BA for dropping 30 points but .290 is a above avg hitter. and for RBIs, Ells just made history for the leadoff hitter to produce more than 100 RBIs in a single season and That's easy to do? You want him to write another history on back-to-back season with more than 100 RBIs for leadoff hitter??
    HRs.. Ells obviously is not a power hitter nor a HR hitter.  Pitchers are going to make adjustment when throwing to Ells next season.  Ells had some good pitches to hit out of the park this season since Agon, rebounded Papi, and Youk were behind him.
    I'll surely get back to you next season so don't worry...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from coachzap. Show coachzap's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Just maybe he gets moved to an RBI spot. His days at leadoff may be numbered. He may not be what you call a " power hitter" but he has plenty of power. 18 is way low no matter where he bats. Im guessing pitchers tried to make adjustments this year. I wouldnt mention Youk when you talk about protection. He wasnt there much.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    See career median average.
    Posted by hankwilliams


    Right. his "career median average" must be a useful analytical tool ... because .. a player's first two major league seasons are ... always indicative of what their performance will be for the rest of their careers?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Softlaw hankwilliams is the one guy hoping that Ellsbury will have a horrible year in 2012.  In an ideal hankwilliams world, Ellsbury would have a serious, possibly career ending injury in spring training.  That's how much he hates Ellsbury. 

    Me, I hope for the best and think his 2012 numbers will come closer to 2011 than to his "career norm."  I say this because he started slowly on the dingers this year and finished consistently strong (8 per month, which translates to 48 in a season) when dingers were most needed. 

    So I will be surprised if he has less than 30 dingers in 2012.  

    Rbi's and runs scored should be fine, but rbi's will depend on opportunities, position in the lineup, etc.  I think 90 rbi's, way more than Drew ever had in one season in Boston, is a reasonable expectation, especially if he doesn't bat leadoff.    

    I expect his OPS to be above .850 and could even be .900 or higher. 

    I think no more than 40 SB's because of the way they tailed off this year after a great May. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    0.310 AVG
    24 HR
    87 RBI
    42 STLs
    111 R
    0.365 OBP
    0.520 SLG

    ...as he continues to price himself out of Boston...
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from lives2ski. Show lives2ski's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    That he will be the next home grown star to leave as soon as he can.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    I agree that Ells will hop the first available flight out of Boston.  The Sox and the town have done their absolute best to be sure of that.  Whoever said Boston was an easy place to play in?
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : Do you expect the leadoff hitter to repeat his numbers which are numbers #3-4 hitters produce? I might be way off on BA for dropping 30 points but .290 is a above avg hitter. and for RBIs, Ells just made history for the leadoff hitter to produce more than 100 RBIs in a single season and That's easy to do? You want him to write another history on back-to-back season with more than 100 RBIs for leadoff hitter?? HRs.. Ells obviously is not a power hitter nor a HR hitter.  Pitchers are going to make adjustment when throwing to Ells next season.  Ells had some good pitches to hit out of the park this season since Agon, rebounded Papi, and Youk were behind him. I'll surely get back to you next season so don't worry...
    Posted by seannybboi


    sean,

    No one today can diffinatively project the numbers that Ells is likely to post next season. Assuming health? My guess is that Ellsbury will fall somewhere in the nieghborhood of .300 ave plus or minus 10 points-with an OPS of 375 plus or minus 10 poits- and slg 475 plus or minus 25 points with an ops somewhere in the 850 ish range plus or minus 25 points. The kid can hit, and is likely to finish  with 60 or 70 XBH, and is a lock to score 100 runs as a leadoff hitter and will steal close to 40 bases and play gold glove defesne...RBI are a dependant team stats, but if he hits 30 homers again, then he'll more than likely be close to 90 for the year and could surpass 100. I doubt that the lineup is going to change much 1-5 so he'll still have Pedrioa, Gonzalez and Youk to protect him.

    The key for him is to recognize early on in the season how teams are pitching him and not to try to be a 40 homer guy and continue to use the whole field. My guess is that they'll likely try to pitch him away and not challenge him on the inner half in the zone...if he starts trying to pull the pull in an attempt to drive the ball to right and doesn't make the nessesary adjustments. Only then do I see him regressing. Trust me, he's well aware of just that...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom. Show proftom's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    You can't measure force, and he is a force on the field and more important in the mind of the otjer team 

    He will be a force for the next five years 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : Do you expect the leadoff hitter to repeat his numbers which are numbers #3-4 hitters produce? I might be way off on BA for dropping 30 points but .290 is a above avg hitter. and for RBIs, Ells just made history for the leadoff hitter to produce more than 100 RBIs in a single season and That's easy to do? You want him to write another history on back-to-back season with more than 100 RBIs for leadoff hitter?? HRs.. Ells obviously is not a power hitter nor a HR hitter.  Pitchers are going to make adjustment when throwing to Ells next season.  Ells had some good pitches to hit out of the park this season since Agon, rebounded Papi, and Youk were behind him. I'll surely get back to you next season so don't worry...
    Posted by seannybboi

    Actually , pitchers did make adjustments pitching to him this year , but he also was able to make adjustments.  He may not look like  power hitter , but he has excellent bat speed and is able to consistently square the ball up , hence the home runs. I don't think that will change very much next year.  Also , I would say that any leadoff hitter on a good team will always have good hitters behind him in the order. That is certainly not going to change.  We will just have to wait and see.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnnyLefty. Show JohnnyLefty's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    .303 BA
    26 HR
    38 SB
    42 2B
    8 3B
    .384 OBP
    93 RBI
    112 R
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tomnev. Show tomnev's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    I Don't see why we should expect Ells numbers to be significantly different overall, than they were this year. It will depend upon his ability to adapt to changes pitchers will clealry make to him, something he seem to do well during last season. He may hit less homeruns, becuase they decide to pitch him away, but that could lead to more 2B and wall balls at Fenway which could increase his average. I look forward to seeing it in any case. As to his eventual free agency, I am of the mind that if we let it get to that point, he will be gone. Historically we have not been great at signing our own free agents....I know he is a Boras client, who hates not to take his guys to Free Agency, but I really wish we would start talking now and see if we can agree with something beneficial to both sides  

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    So far, the only sure bet when it comes to Mister Ellsbury is that Master Softlaw will be wrong about him. 

    And so it goes...

    -Daf. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Duck, do you remember 2008 and 2010, for the great Ellsbury. Ted Williams, I mean Ellsbury will be leaving, soon enough.
     
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