Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]Duck, do you remember 2008 and 2010, for the great Ellsbury. Ted Williams, I mean Ellsbury will be leaving, soon enough.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    Wait do you mean 2008 his first full season in the bigs, and 2010 when he was out with an injury the whole year?  Those years?
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Yes, I mean 2008 and 2009 and 2010, too. Only Inesptein looks at the last year. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]Yes, I mean 2008 and 2009 and 2010, too. Only Inesptein looks at the last year. 
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
     And only Softhank considers career norms as a solid analytical tool when referring to a player's first two full seasons in the majors.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    softlaw can you start hating on ALL the Sox players now??? this way they are pretty much guranteed to all play better next year. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from phxvlsoxfan. Show phxvlsoxfan's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Very much depends on the productivity of the 7 - 9 and #2 spots in the order (likely to be Scuts, Salty, Crawford and the new RF, in some order).  If they cannot hold their own, pitchers will start to work around Els more and his numbers will likely be in the neighborhood of .285/.370/.460 with 20 HRs/75 RBI and 50 SBs.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    2008, 2009 and 2010 is more than 2 years, Spacey. Inepstein took career years and paid for that rate.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    BA: .318
    HR: 27
    RBI's: 98
    SB: 34
    OPS: .750

     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Keep trying to justify your stand on Ells Sof...I mean...Hank...There comes a time to just shut the hell up....
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]I agree that Ells will hop the first available flight out of Boston.  The Sox and the town have done their absolute best to be sure of that.  Whoever said Boston was an easy place to play in?
    Posted by traven[/QUOTE]


    I agree with you that Ellsbury will also leave the Red Sox when he becomes a free agent.  He is another player that the Red Sox can't afford to lose and won't be easy to replace. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]Very much depends on the productivity of the 7 - 9 and #2 spots in the order (likely to be Scuts, Salty, Crawford and the new RF, in some order).  If they cannot hold their own, pitchers will start to work around Els more and his numbers will likely be in the neighborhood of .285/.370/.460 with 20 HRs/75 RBI and 50 SBs.
    Posted by phxvlsoxfan[/QUOTE]

    Whether teams pitch to him or not is largely dependent on who hits behind him vs in front of him...His RBI total is the lone exception in that it's a team dependent stat. With Scutaro in the 9 hole who gets on base at a decent clip, who will see his share of fastballs hitting in front of Ell's, if he hits 30 bombs again he'll likely finish in the upper 80's in that catergory as well.

    Let's not forget that pitching around Ells comes with a price in that it forces the pitcher to pitch from the stretch and Pedrioa is the beneficiary of the natural whole created by having to hold him on and 80% of the time when he runs a walk is a good as a double...

    The key to Ellsbury having another solid year is to stay in the zone and force teams to get him out throwing strikes...
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]2008, 2009 and 2010 is more than 2 years, Spacey. Inepstein took career years and paid for that rate.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    But 2010 isnt even a blip on the statistical radar, hank, by virtue of DNP, so it really doesn't factor into career norms.  So, for all intents and purposes, it is not more than two years.  Of course, you know this and are purposely ignoring it, and I expect nothing more.  Just have to note every time you bring up 'career norms' as if it is relevant in discussing a players first two ... full ... seasons in the majors.

    As for Inepstein and carer years, what are you talking about?  Ellsbury's arbitration?  
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    But 2010 isnt even a blip on the statistical radar, hank, by virtue of DNP, so it really doesn't factor into career norms. So, for all intents and purposes, it is not more than two years.

    Yes, he did play in 2010, and it is a factor.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    28 Next season.

    has showed progression in every category since his first full season. 

    oh except for the 2010 season....you know the one where he had only 83 at bats- half of which were the beginning of the season in which he never had enough time to get going (we all know how manipulative SMALL SAMPLE SIZES are) and the rest he was playing through broken ribs.  (name one baseball player who could .300 with broken ribs)

    You wouldn't take the average height of a student who is expected to grow, you wouldn't take the average stock price of company operating in an economic boom to predict it's price the following year.  Rather you would predict growth.

    Ellsbury is young enough and on the right side of his prime to argue he hasn't peaked yet and growth is still there,  but if he has then without a doubt his 2012 may mirror his 2011.

    FOR what it's worth I made this same exact argument with you last year Softy in, in terms of ELlsbury's upward mobility in offensive statistics.  I normally don't gloat...BUT I was dead on there.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]But 2010 isnt even a blip on the statistical radar, hank, by virtue of DNP, so it really doesn't factor into career norms. So, for all intents and purposes, it is not more than two years. Yes, he did play in 2010, and it is a factor.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
     OK, fine, lets throw in those 78 at bats.  
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Ellsbury may be high right now, but so was Kemp.

    Kemp his 21 HR above his career avg this year.
    Kemp hit 35 rbi's above his career avg this year.
    Kemp walked 39 times above his career avg. this year.
    Kemp stole 19 more bases than he does on avg this year
    Kemp OBP was 40 points above career avg of .350 which is BELOW Ellsbury's career OBP.

    Softy may talk about Inepstein drooling over career years.....but aren't you doing the same thing???
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury may be high right now, but so was Kemp. Kemp his 21 HR above his career avg this year. Kemp hit 35 rbi's above his career avg this year. Kemp walked 39 times above his career avg. this year. Kemp stole 19 more bases than he does on avg this year Kemp OBP was 40 points above career avg of .350 which is BELOW Ellsbury's career OBP. Softy may talk about Inepstein drooling over career years.....but aren't you doing the same thing???
    Posted by ctredsoxfanhugh[/QUOTE]

    Silly Hugh.  Of course its not the same thing.  Obviously, Kemp has the skillset to maintain his current high level of production.  But ellsbury, of course, is encumbered by his reverse pivot swing and thus we can expect heavy drop-offs and a return to the numbers he put up in his first 2 full major league seasons.  Duuuuuh.

     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Its about fit, Ellsbury adoring defender. Kemp is a far superior fit on what Epstein locked on the books!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Its about fit, Ellsbury adoring defender. Kemp is a far superior fit on what Epstein locked on the books!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Don't have a fit, Hiram.

    And don't be so shy. Please give us the numbers you have calculated based on Ellsbury's career median average so we know exactly what to expect.

    One more exclamation point and you would have had me. Better luck next time.;)
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    And the devil drivels from his pants, again. Look at his career median averages, available at Baseballreference for morons. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]And the devil drivels from his pants, again. Look at his career median averages, available at Baseballreference for morons. 
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    If you insist on keeping this silly notion up, I must keep up the same rebuttle.

    Career median averages are really not a reliable analytical tool when you are talking about a player's first two full seasons in the majors (ok ok, fine, he played a little bit in 2010, lets include that, AND his 2007 numbers, lets add in another 200 at bats and call it 2 1/2 years, fine, still not a very reliable analytical tool).  Most players do not start hitting what will become their career median until 3 or so years in.  The Pedroia's of the world are very rare.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    And the devil drivels from his pants, again. Look at his career median averages, available at Baseballreference for morons. 

    Why are you thinking about a man's pants? That is perverse.

    A median is a number that falls in the middle of a group of numbers. Are you referring to the 162 game average? That is not a median. Neither is the career average. Not sure what number you are referring to, but there are no career median averages on that site.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Kemp's 2011 makes a lot more sense than Ellsbury's.  At age 26, after previous HR totals of 10, 18, 26 & 28, he makes a jump to 39.  That's not outlandish.  Ellsbury's previous high in HRs was 9 in 2008.  It's not likely for a player to quadrupal his HR totals from ages 25 to 27, when his body is likely at full maturity.

    The question is why the jump in production - even his most ardent supporters could not have predicted 32 home runs from Ellsbury in 2011.  If the answer is a rigorous weight-lifting routine, how is this even possible, considering he could not swing a bat for nearly all of 2010, and he was still "feeling something" in his ribs as late as December, 2010?

     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Ellsbury corrected his swing in 2011. That is what made all the difference.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]Kemp's 2011 makes a lot more sense than Ellsbury's.  At age 26, after previous HR totals of 10, 18, 26 & 28, he makes a jump to 39.  That's not outlandish.  Ellsbury's previous high in HRs was 9 in 2008.  It's not likely for a player to quadrupal his HR totals from ages 25 to 27, when his body is likely at full maturity. The question is why the jump in production - even his most ardent supporters could not have predicted 32 home runs from Ellsbury in 2011.  If the answer is a rigorous weight-lifting routine, how is this even possible, considering he could not swing a bat for nearly all of 2010, and he was still "feeling something" in his ribs as late as December, 2010?
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]Is there a contradiction? One would think that a "body at full maturity" would explain some of the increase in power, if not a quadruple jump.
    What do you think explains the jump?

     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : Is there a contradiction? One would think that a "body at full maturity" would explain some of the increase in power, if not a quadruple jump. What do you think explains the jump?
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    His body would have been at full maturity two years ago.  I think part of it was a change in his excercise routine -  I don't think it was mechanical, as his base-stealing ability seems to have declined.  I think there is a very real possibility of a fluke, and that he never approaches these numbers again.  I look at Bautista to know that anything is possible, but if Ellsbury continues to climb, I don't think I've ever seen a similar trajectory.

     

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