Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    slo,

    His increased power can be explained by his learning to turn on and hit the ball on the inner half and drive it to right...when he first came up he looked to slap the ball to left "the classic speedster approach". which opened up a whole on the inner half, where he got pounded in 2008, then in 2009 started to work to close that whole and this past year looked to drive the ball when he was ahead in the count. It's part of the maturation of a hitter...the same thing was true with Ortiz when he came over from Minnesota...
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    slo, His increased power can be explained by his learning to turn on and hit the ball on the inner half and drive it to right...when he first came up he looked to slap the ball to left "the classic speedster approach". which opened up a whole on the inner half, where he got pounded in 2008, then in 2009 started to work to close that whole and this past year looked to drive the ball when he was ahead in the count. It's part of the maturation of a hitter...the same thing was true with Ortiz when he came over from Minnesota...
    Posted by Beantowne


    It wasn't purely mechanical - he also had much better power going the other way.  Before the start of 2011, you could count on one hand the number of balls Ellsbury had hit off the monster in his career.  In 2011, he hit several, with a couple reaching the stands.  Also, if the explanation was limited to his mechanics, how do you explain the drop in base-stealing volume and efficiency?  How did he go from 70 SBs with an 85% success rate to 39 with a 72% success rate?

    Ortiz had predictor seasons with the Twins - in 2001, at age 25, he hit 18 HRs in 300 ABs.  To go from that to 45 - 50 HRs for a couple of peak years is unusual, but not unprecedented.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : It wasn't purely mechanical - he also had much better power going the other way.  Before the start of 2011, you could count on one hand the number of balls Ellsbury had hit off the monster in his career.  In 2011, he hit several, with a couple reaching the stands.  Also, if the explanation was limited to his mechanics, how do you explain the drop in base-stealing volume and efficiency?  How did he go from 70 SBs with an 85% success rate to 39 with a 72% success rate? Ortiz had predictor seasons with the Twins - in 2001, at age 25, he hit 18 HRs in 300 ABs.  To go from that to 45 - 50 HRs for a couple of peak years is unusual, but not unprecedented.
    Posted by slomag
    So, Slo ( couldn't resist ), what does that leave us with? Major fluke, or a substance, or....
    I do think the man has a point. Earlier Ellsbury tended to try to hit through his front hip instead of opening it enough to allow a full clean swing. Which he does now. As for the Monster, I have no count for balls off it or over it or short of it, then and now. But batters who improve at the plate tend generally to hit the ball better to all fields. Maybe between one thing and another Ellsbury just came into his own, in a big way. Maybe.
    Recall that a few years ago, Maddon predicted that Ellsbury would someday hit with power. What did he see? He had many opportunities to observe.
    Why speculate any more when the pudding will be served again starting in April?

     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Slo gets it.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

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    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : So, Slo ( couldn't resist ), what does that leave us with? Major fluke, or a substance, or.... I do think the man has a point. Earlier Ellsbury tended to try to hit through his front hip instead of opening it enough to allow a full clean swing. Which he does now. As for the Monster, I have no count for balls off it or over it or short of it, then and now. But batters who improve at the plate tend generally to hit the ball better to all fields. Maybe between one thing and another Ellsbury just came into his own, in a big way. Maybe. Recall that a few years ago, Maddon predicted that Ellsbury would someday hit with power. What did he see? He had many opportunities to observe. Why speculate any more when the pudding will be served again starting in April?
    Posted by expitch


    I don't suspect Ellsbury of anything more sinister than protecting his stats - if he can spend 2010 off-season beefing up, then he can step in the batters box 3 months earlier.

    But I think he is more of a fluke risk than most, and if a good deal comes along, he should be dealt.

     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : I don't suspect Ellsbury of anything more sinister than protecting his stats - if he can spend 2010 off-season beefing up, then he can step in the batters box 3 months earlier. But I think he is more of a fluke risk than most, and if a good deal comes along, he should be dealt.
    Posted by slomag
    Man, you have a thing against this young man. 
    You don't have enough information to say what he could or could not do at any particular time. I thought that you once conceded that. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Critics are always derided as having it in for poor Ellsbury. Red Sox have Crawford. Ellsbury has one career year and only has 2 years of arbitration control left. Slo gets it.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : His body would have been at full maturity two years ago.  I think part of it was a change in his excercise routine -  I don't think it was mechanical, as his base-stealing ability seems to have declined.  I think there is a very real possibility of a fluke, and that he never approaches these numbers again.  I look at Bautista to know that anything is possible, but if Ellsbury continues to climb, I don't think I've ever seen a similar trajectory.
    Posted by slomag

    The male body peaks at 28.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    See career median average.
    Posted by hankwilliams


    Career median numbers for Ellsbury would be .280 / .355 / .415 with 188 hits, 9 HR, 47RBI and 39SB.

     

    First, I think he can top that, especially the slugging and HR numbers.  Probably the RBI, too, if anyone is on base in front of him.

     

    Second, people need to learn the definition of the word median…

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Some people need to learn what median averages is.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Some people need to learn what median averages is

    That would be you.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

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    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : The male body peaks at 28.
    Posted by BosoxJoe5


    Then there should be plenty of examples of slap hitters with single digit HR totals becoming perennial 30HR threats by age 28. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    No, that would be you, Devildrivel.

    Slomag, you are trying to make sense to dimwits. Of course, you take a career year and project it as a yearly ouput, just like Inepstein did with Crawford and 2010.  
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    No, that would be you, Devildrivel.

    Slomag, you are trying to make sense to dimwits. Of course, you take a career year and project it as a yearly ouput, just like Inepstein did with Crawford and 2010.
      

    Still waiting for your median career averages. Except you don't seem to understand that median and average mean two entirely different things.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : Then there should be plenty of examples of slap hitters with single digit HR totals becoming perennial 30HR threats by age 28. 
    Posted by slomag
    Not necessarily. 
    Not unless the basic strength is already present. Besides, most slap hitters are content to remain slap hitters because it got them to the majors in the first place.
    Ellsbury is obviously not one of them.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from saintJ. Show saintJ's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Here are the numbers softy suggests, based on 5 years in the majors counting his 33 game rookie season and year her was on the DL. As softy always considers.

    GAMES 145

    ABS 554

    HITS 155

    RUNS 94

    2B 22

    3B 5

    HR 8

    RBI 47

    SB 39

    CS 11

    BB 41

    SO 74

    BA .301

    OBP .355

    SLG .415

     

    Here are the numbers softy suggests, based on 5 years in the majors without counting his 33 game rookie season and year her was on the DL.


    GAMES 153

    ABS 624

    HITS 188

    RUNS 98

    2B 27

    3B 7

    HR 9

    RBI 60

    SB 50

    CS 12

    BB 49

    SO 80

    BA .301

    OBP .355

    SLG .415

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Thanks saintJ, but Hiram knows how to use the keyboard.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    ...he's hip deep now!

    This is too funny!

    Average of medians... LOL!!!!!!

    Except you don't seem to understand that median and average mean two entirely different things.

    Except you don't understand that an average of medians means one thing, you patronizing putz.

    Classic!
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    ...he's hip deep now! This is too funny! Average of medians... LOL!!!!!! Except you don't seem to understand that median and average mean two entirely different things. Except you don't understand that an average of medians means one thing, you patronizing putz. Classic!
    Posted by moonslav59


    I actually did LOL Moon..Thanks softy...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Ellsbury went to the Arizona Performance Institute last year and spent a very long time there rehabbing his injury and improving his overall body to withstand the punishment. We didn't see him dive as much last year or steal as much. He basically is managing his health a lot better than before and he is a lot stronger. His body is now optimized for baseball.

    It was easy to project a major improvement for him last winter as he needed more strength and the API is famous for that. Look at Youk's numbers when he came back from the API and went on to make himself one of the best hitters in the majors. Pedroia went there and came back to win an MVP. People were not picking Ellsbury as having a huge year in 2011 but it was statistically likely given his age, his time at the API and the incentive to do well from a psychological perspective and a contract perspective.

    Only ignoramuses like hank should have missed that but let's be honest. Most of you did. It just slipped through the cracks. People looked at 2010 and couldn't see beyond the obvious.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Looking at player trends of speedsters like Ellsbury, when he came up, I looked into the careers of guys like Lou Brock, Henderson and Damon last winter and before, during all the arguments with softy. I thought Ellsbury would not play as long as those guys but that he would put up similar overall numbers to Brock and Damon at least during his prime years. Most people don't realize it but Brock hit 21 HR one year. I thought Ellsbury would profile somewhere in between Brock and Damon. More steals than Damon and more HR than Brock. 

    Ellsbury looks like he will hit for a higher average than Brock, with more power. I think he averages more than 20 HR for the next 6 years. He could well top 30 again. The guy is an extra base machine. 83 XBH last year! He led the league in total bases. We are probably not looking at a fluke year where he reverts to career averages. Someone slap softy to wake him up.

    He had an OPS plus of 146 last year. Ellsbury is everything we paid Crawford to be and more. 

    He used to hit the ball best to left field right. So they kept pounding him in. He had to learn to drive the ball to survive in mlb. He gradually learned to do that. Eventually he started being able to reach the wall but they are still pounding him inside. Opposing pitchers do not want to walk this guy. He is now a perfect storm for a probable high average, high OPS performer. He's too much of a threat on the basepaths to walk him. He does too much damage at the plate to pitch him outside as they do with so many other sluggers. He's going to get a lot of inside pitches and he is going to hit some of them out.

    One thing I think we can count on is that he is going to now have a lot of XBH. He is going to drive the ball to all fields. If they pitch him outside his average goes up. If they pitch him inside he hits more dingers. This guy can field also. In CF. He is one of the most valuable players in baseball.

    I see absolutely no reason why he will not continue to put up monster numbers if he can stay healthy.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : Then there should be plenty of examples of slap hitters with single digit HR totals becoming perennial 30HR threats by age 28. 
    Posted by slomag


    There's not many, but Johhny Damon spiked to a 20 hr guy in his 4th year...What's lost on this entire discussion is that there's an entire season of missing data (2010) between 2009 and 2011. So what we don't know is had he been healthy and plyed an entire season would he have spkied to a 20 hr guy in 2010 thus making his 2011 look more like a progression vs a spike.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : There's not many, but Johhny Damon spiked to a 20 hr guy in his 4th year...What's lost on this entire discussion is that there's an entire season of missing data (2010) between 2009 and 2011. So what we don't know is had he been healthy and plyed an entire season would he have spkied to a 20 hr guy in 2010 thus making his 2011 look more like a progression vs a spike.
    Posted by Beantowne


    I don't think that is lost on the conversation.  Its just that Softhank refuses to look at 2010 that way.  His career median average line, and the notion that 2011 is some freak outlier that does not have to do with natural development, only holds weight is 2010 is actually a fully representative sample of a career slap hitting jitterbug, just as his first two full years in the bigs were.  Its certainly not lost in the arguement, just willfully ignored by Softhank.
     
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    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    Bean, You make a good point. Without the injury in 2010 Ellsbury was primed for a good year. If hits 20+ HR's in 2010 all the idiots would be talking about somebody else. Slo and Slower ( Slomag and Hank) are rooting for failure  so they can save a little face. Too late though Ellsbury has more big years coming. Settle in.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012

    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012:
    In Response to Re: Early Ellsbury projection for 2012 : I don't think that is lost on the conversation.  Its just that Softhank refuses to look at 2010 that way.  His career median average line, and the notion that 2011 is some freak outlier that does not have to do with natural development, only holds weight is 2010 is actually a fully representative sample of a career slap hitting jitterbug, just as his first two full years in the bigs were.  Its certainly not lost in the arguement, just willfully ignored by Softhank.
    Posted by SpacemanEephus


    Space,
    I tend to stay away from him, I was merely trying to add some perspective. In the end we'll all have a better read on Ellsbury's ability to post another MVP season this time next year...
     
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