Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    Drews has always had outstanding range at SS ...

    On what planet do you live on?

     
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    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

     

    Victorino is washed-up.

    Mike Napoli is a butcher first baseman.

    Drew is a poor shortstop.

    Lester/Buchholz ... 

     

     



    spaceman,

     

    Drews has always had outstanding range at SS and a good bat even though hes off to a slow start.  Some of our fans are so stuck on the Iggy bandwagon they will continue to bash guys like Ciriaco and Drew regardless.  Mike was my biggest concern defensively at 1B before the season but he has done very well. 

    As far as Clay and Jon, I never lost faith and its very clear bringing in Farrell and Nieves to fix their mechanics was a huge help, not to mention better team chemistry.  I still say this team is more than capable of winning 88 games if we stay healthy. 

    Lastly, A GREAT PERFORMANCE BY DEMPSTER TODAY, too bad Bailey blew his win but we still took the game.  Salty is also off to a good strat like last season and I hope it continues, even though he still has no arm to 2B :)



    Craze, as a semi-knoweldgeable baseball fan, I was comfortable knowing that Victorino would be good, Drew just fine.  As an optimist, I felt good about Lester/Buchholz redemption year.  But, the pleasant and total surpise for me has been Napoli picking up where Gonzalez left off play first base.  He has made some really fine plays and has been so sound, making right decisions.  Looks like he has been a full-time first bagger all his life.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

     

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

     

    Victorino is washed-up.

    Mike Napoli is a butcher first baseman.

    Drew is a poor shortstop.

    Lester/Buchholz ... 

     

     



    spaceman,

     

    Drews has always had outstanding range at SS and a good bat even though hes off to a slow start.  Some of our fans are so stuck on the Iggy bandwagon they will continue to bash guys like Ciriaco and Drew regardless.  Mike was my biggest concern defensively at 1B before the season but he has done very well. 

    As far as Clay and Jon, I never lost faith and its very clear bringing in Farrell and Nieves to fix their mechanics was a huge help, not to mention better team chemistry.  I still say this team is more than capable of winning 88 games if we stay healthy. 

    Lastly, A GREAT PERFORMANCE BY DEMPSTER TODAY, too bad Bailey blew his win but we still took the game.  Salty is also off to a good strat like last season and I hope it continues, even though he still has no arm to 2B :)

     



    Craze, as a semi-knoweldgeable baseball fan, I was comfortable knowing that Victorino would be good, Drew just fine.  As an optimist, I felt good about Lester/Buchholz redemption year.  But, the pleasant and total surpise for me has been Napoli picking up where Gonzalez left off play first base.  He has made some really fine plays and has been so sound, making right decisions.  Looks like he has been a full-time first bagger all his life.

     



    I agree but still miss that steady bat

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     



    What about the fact that ever since the middle of last year, Dempster has shown that his career 8K/9 translates to teh AL?

    Dempster has always gotten a ton of swings and misses.  I wouldnt be surprised if he wound up w/ 4 ERA, 180K's.  To put up those numbers in the AL East, thats a pretty darn good #3 ...

    This guy started the all-star game last year, and has an ERA of about 3.5 over the last 4 seasons.  Gets a ton of Ks.  He can pitch.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Drews has always had outstanding range at SS ...

    On what planet do you live on?

     



    You can't judge a player unless you truly watch him play.  I don't think Iggy would have done any better than Drew on the plays he made yesterday or today.  You may not be giving Drew enough credit for his range due to past injuries. 

     

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     

     



    What about the fact that ever since the middle of last year, Dempster has shown that his career 8K/9 translates to teh AL?

     

    Dempster has always gotten a ton of swings and misses.  I wouldnt be surprised if he wound up w/ 4 ERA, 180K's.  To put up those numbers in the AL East, thats a pretty darn good #3 ...

    This guy started the all-star game last year, and has an ERA of about 3.5 over the last 4 seasons.  Gets a ton of Ks.  He can pitch.



    I'm normally not one of those guys that underrates NL SPs, but something about Dempster always made me think he was less than what his numbers showed. His small sample size with texas should not be used to discredit him that much, but maybe I let it sway my thinking.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     

     



    What about the fact that ever since the middle of last year, Dempster has shown that his career 8K/9 translates to teh AL?

     

    Dempster has always gotten a ton of swings and misses.  I wouldnt be surprised if he wound up w/ 4 ERA, 180K's.  To put up those numbers in the AL East, thats a pretty darn good #3 ...

    This guy started the all-star game last year, and has an ERA of about 3.5 over the last 4 seasons.  Gets a ton of Ks.  He can pitch.

     



    I'm normally not one of those guys that underrates NL SPs, but something about Dempster always made me think he was less than what his numbers showed. His small sample size with texas should not be used to discredit him that much, but maybe I let it sway my thinking.

     



    the funny thing though about those samll sample numbers in Texas is that they broke down into two distinct smaller sample sets: one which was a clear adjustment period where he got rocked, and then a slightly larger set in which he was pretty darn good.  Numbers don't lie, but they do tell different stories depending on how you chop 'em up.  One story says he was mediocre in his brief tenure in Arlington.  Another, the one which the Sox FO obviously felt was the more true story, is that he started rough, settled down and was trending better and better into this year.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     

     



    What about the fact that ever since the middle of last year, Dempster has shown that his career 8K/9 translates to teh AL?

     

    Dempster has always gotten a ton of swings and misses.  I wouldnt be surprised if he wound up w/ 4 ERA, 180K's.  To put up those numbers in the AL East, thats a pretty darn good #3 ...

    This guy started the all-star game last year, and has an ERA of about 3.5 over the last 4 seasons.  Gets a ton of Ks.  He can pitch.

     



    I'm normally not one of those guys that underrates NL SPs, but something about Dempster always made me think he was less than what his numbers showed. His small sample size with texas should not be used to discredit him that much, but maybe I let it sway my thinking.

     




    actually those number should be encouraging somewhat. 7 of 12 starts were 3 runs or less, 2 were 4 runs and 1 was 5. He had 2 stinkers right after the trade that skewed his era. He adjusted pretty good after that.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Drew's OBP is similar to Bradley's and Ellsbury's. Very impressive. I like the play where Drew falls down and the ball deflects off his chest to Pedroia who throws Jennings out at first.

    Assumptions aren't dispelled after 12 games.




    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!  Yeah OK kiddo!!  You were the same 'guy' that kept saying that Baradley would be the best thing since sliced bread after only HALFWAY through SPRING TRAINING!!  Typical Soft-Guy....only use information if it defends your very week thoughts.....  Once again...thanks for another laugh....

     
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    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

     

    Victorino is washed-up.

    Mike Napoli is a butcher first baseman.

    Drew is a poor shortstop.

    Lester/Buchholz ... 

     

     

     




    The game of baseball laughs at the futility of the armchair prognosticators.

     



    True.  But it also laughs at professional prognosticators and even the wisest and shrewdest of General Managers.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     

     



    What about the fact that ever since the middle of last year, Dempster has shown that his career 8K/9 translates to teh AL?

     

    Dempster has always gotten a ton of swings and misses.  I wouldnt be surprised if he wound up w/ 4 ERA, 180K's.  To put up those numbers in the AL East, thats a pretty darn good #3 ...

    This guy started the all-star game last year, and has an ERA of about 3.5 over the last 4 seasons.  Gets a ton of Ks.  He can pitch.

     



    I'm normally not one of those guys that underrates NL SPs, but something about Dempster always made me think he was less than what his numbers showed. His small sample size with texas should not be used to discredit him that much, but maybe I let it sway my thinking.

     



    Moon, I think that's fair.  The Texas sample size , while small, was really all we had to go by w/ Dempster in the AL.

    I didnt buy too much into it because I really dont believe that there is a such thing as an NL pitcher.  I think that there are pitchers who can get by in teh NL , but not in the AL, but I think thats more about a lack of talent than being better suited for the NL.  

    I expect all ERAs to jump from the NL to teh AL, but I wouldnt expect a pitcher who has been a darn good #2 in the NL for 3-4 years, to come over and stink.  I was predicting a low 4's ERA.  And I'll take it, all day.

    The Texas sample size hurt his market.  This was a guy who started the all-star game last year.  This was a guy who was flipped for two top prospects at the deadline.  Judging by the fact that we were able to acquire him for a 2 yr contract, I think its safe to say that GMs were hesitant to give him 3-4 years.  I think its safe to say that his time in Texas was (at least) partly the reason.

    But dont overlook the fact that he got a TON of Ks in Texas.  No matter where he goes, he's always been able to put up large K numbers.  To me , that shows talent.  He's got it.

    I stand by my prediction since the offseaons...4.1 ERA , 180 K's...Thats a very good #3 in the AL East.

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    You were the same 'guy' that kept saying that Baradley would be the best thing since sliced bread after only HALFWAY through SPRING TRAINING!! 

    In fact, I'm the same guy who said that Bradley would struggle at the plate but provides the defense, enthusiasm and leadership that has been missing for a half a decade.



    Amazing.  Most of us think a lot of Bradley, but recognize now he needs time in the minors to learn how to hit.  You on the other hand would keep him in the lineup despite the OPS of .392 and the unearned run he produced in left field. 

    I will admit to being very impressed with the way Bradley handles himself in the outfield.  I too saw the bad throw yesterday, but liked how he dove for that sinking liner/fly and still kept it from getting past him.  He is special, no doubt.  But he is liability until he can hit MLB pitching. 

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    You were the same 'guy' that kept saying that Baradley would be the best thing since sliced bread after only HALFWAY through SPRING TRAINING!! 

    In fact, I'm the same guy who said that Bradley would struggle at the plate but provides the defense, enthusiasm and leadership that has been missing for a half a decade.




    HAHA!!!!!  NICE TRY!!!!!!  BTW....I'm sure that Lester, Buch, Pedroia, Ells, Napoli and vic are just circling this kid every day asking for advice and great leadership......  Great post Soft Guy.....I'll store this one on my hard drive for a later date.......  Just like the "Bill, I love you to death" post......

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    You were the same 'guy' that kept saying that Baradley would be the best thing since sliced bread after only HALFWAY through SPRING TRAINING!! 

    In fact, I'm the same guy who said that Bradley would struggle at the plate but provides the defense, enthusiasm and leadership that has been missing for a half a decade.

     




    HAHA!!!!!  NICE TRY!!!!!!  BTW....I'm sure that Lester, Buch, Pedroia, Ells, Napoli and vic are just circling this kid every day asking for advice and great leadership......  Great post Soft Guy.....I'll store this one on my hard drive for a later date.......  Just like the "Bill, I love you to death" post......

     



    Just make sure it is your backup drive.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     But he is liability until he can hit MLB pitching.

    I agree, S. Drew is a liablity even if he could MLB pitching, which he hasn't done for the Red Sox, yet.

    After 12 games, I'm not ready to pass judgment on Bradley's OBP. Max, I noticed how you pointed out his 12 game slugging. Are there any other 12 game slugging average Red Sox position players you are as concerned about?

    Bradley has 3 hits and 1 double in 12 games, which is as bad as he will do. I know all share the joy in seeing Bradley drive the ball near the warning track, with men on base, against the Rays.

    Where is that poster who said "he hasn't hit the ball out of the infield in a week?

     

    Now, any posters on here want Red Sox managment to pay Ellsbury's FA market rate? If not, will Bradley all of sudden become "ready", or not?



    You speak to the very essence of the argument to send Bradley down.  Bradley needs to be ready next year.  Gotta make sure he knows what to do with all pitches and how to do it.  You can argue that this is best achieved by major league trial by fire service time.  OK.  Possible.  But dicey.  Young guys can develop short-cut hitches to make-up for sound mechanics.  Also, a 12 game game sample is one thing, especially for an athlete with Jackie bradley's obviously strong mental make-up, but what happens to a kid's confidence after 30, 50 games of miserable scuffle?  Conversely, he could go back to Pawtucket, for only as long as necessary, with the confidence still in tact and lessons he learned in his stint in the show, and work on the problems that were exposed by this tall cup o coffee.  Without the intense pressure of having to perform, with the input of coaches whose focus is not on winning games but on player development.

    What is the harm at this point?  Ahh, as you say, the big club would lose the enthusiastic leadership-by-example youthful energy of Bradley.  True enough.  But, one must wonder how vivacious that energy will be if 12 game sample size turns to 20 or to 30 with same results.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

    Victorino is washed-up.

    Mike Napoli is a butcher first baseman.

    Drew is a poor shortstop.

    Lester/Buchholz ... 

     

     



    They aren't really assumptions.  They are more like unresearched guesses.

    An assumption is putting together a bunch of stats, and then trying to project.

    What happened is the same as what usually happens in here.  Folks that dislike all the RS moves, just decided to dislike these guys for no other reason than the fact that they like to dislike RS players.

    Napoli's fielding for example.  Napoli had only started 118 games in his career at 1B.  I doubt any of the critics had ever seen him play 1B, let alone play it regularly.  So they decided that a guy they had never seen, that had a very small handful of starts, couldn't field.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Although I still think we are a solid #3 starter away from seriously competing for a ring, I will say that my 50% call on the chances that Lester and Buch would pitch great and stay healthy all year is looking like an 80% call now. Man, these two are sharp!

    Maybe Dempster will continue to surprise me, but we should take todays game in context: the Rays 4-9 hitters have these BAs after today's game: 147, 227, 172, 098, 200, and 185. They also PH a guy hitting .087. Their leadoff guy is batting .244.

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, and Ryan deserved this win, but the jury is still out on him being that key 3rd guy.

     

     



    What about the fact that ever since the middle of last year, Dempster has shown that his career 8K/9 translates to teh AL?

     

    Dempster has always gotten a ton of swings and misses.  I wouldnt be surprised if he wound up w/ 4 ERA, 180K's.  To put up those numbers in the AL East, thats a pretty darn good #3 ...

    This guy started the all-star game last year, and has an ERA of about 3.5 over the last 4 seasons.  Gets a ton of Ks.  He can pitch.

     



    I'm normally not one of those guys that underrates NL SPs, but something about Dempster always made me think he was less than what his numbers showed. His small sample size with texas should not be used to discredit him that much, but maybe I let it sway my thinking.

     

     



    Moon, I think that's fair.  The Texas sample size , while small, was really all we had to go by w/ Dempster in the AL.

     

    I didnt buy too much into it because I really dont believe that there is a such thing as an NL pitcher.  I think that there are pitchers who can get by in teh NL , but not in the AL, but I think thats more about a lack of talent than being better suited for the NL.  

    I expect all ERAs to jump from the NL to teh AL, but I wouldnt expect a pitcher who has been a darn good #2 in the NL for 3-4 years, to come over and stink.  I was predicting a low 4's ERA.  And I'll take it, all day.

    The Texas sample size hurt his market.  This was a guy who started the all-star game last year.  This was a guy who was flipped for two top prospects at the deadline.  Judging by the fact that we were able to acquire him for a 2 yr contract, I think its safe to say that GMs were hesitant to give him 3-4 years.  I think its safe to say that his time in Texas was (at least) partly the reason.

    But dont overlook the fact that he got a TON of Ks in Texas.  No matter where he goes, he's always been able to put up large K numbers.  To me , that shows talent.  He's got it.

    I stand by my prediction since the offseaons...4.1 ERA , 180 K's...Thats a very good #3 in the AL East.



    I think the hesitancy over 3-4 years might have been more age related than Texas small sample size related.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Early Returns: Assumptions Dispelled

    Moon, I think that's fair.  The Texas sample size , while small, was really all we had to go by w/ Dempster in the AL.

     

    I didnt buy too much into it because I really dont believe that there is a such thing as an NL pitcher.  I think that there are pitchers who can get by in teh NL , but not in the AL, but I think thats more about a lack of talent than being better suited for the NL.  

    I expect all ERAs to jump from the NL to teh AL, but I wouldnt expect a pitcher who has been a darn good #2 in the NL for 3-4 years, to come over and stink.  I was predicting a low 4's ERA.  And I'll take it, all day.

    The Texas sample size hurt his market.  This was a guy who started the all-star game last year.  This was a guy who was flipped for two top prospects at the deadline.  Judging by the fact that we were able to acquire him for a 2 yr contract, I think its safe to say that GMs were hesitant to give him 3-4 years.  I think its safe to say that his time in Texas was (at least) partly the reason.

    But dont overlook the fact that he got a TON of Ks in Texas.  No matter where he goes, he's always been able to put up large K numbers.  To me , that shows talent.  He's got it.

    I stand by my prediction since the offseaons...4.1 ERA , 180 K's...Thats a very good #3 in the AL East.

     

    Maybe his gae had more to do with the lack of any 3-4 year offers and not the small Texas sample size.

     
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