Re: Easier to swallow?
posted at 8/21/2012 1:15 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Easier to swallow?
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: Easier to swallow? : Yup. I was sure this team would want to do everything they could to get the bad taste of last Sept out of their mouths. Didn't happen.
Posted by ThefourBs[/QUOTE]
If we were going to turn it around, it would have needed to happen at least 2 weeks ago. We are 7 games behind two teams that are playing well.
Because they are playing well, expecting them to finish anything under .550 the rest of the way is unreasonable. So lets assume they play .550 ball.
Tampa = 40 games left. .550 ball equates to 22 additional wins. Added to the 68 they have = 90 wins.
Baltimore = 40 games left. .550 ball equates to 22 additional wins. Added to the 66 they have = 88 wins.
Lets assume that one of these teams completely collapses.
Unfortunately, Det is also right there. Lets assume Det plays .550 ball the rest of the way (22 wins) + 64 they already have = 86.
Its completely unrealistic to assume that 2/3 teams collapse. So the sox are going to need to get 86 (at the very least).
86 - 59 = 27 wins. 27/40 = .675.
So the Sox would have to play their last 40 games at a .675 winning percentage to have a shot. This is using conservative numbers. With no CC, and no Middlebrooks, and with the team 4-6 in their last 10, this is a long shot at least.
Just trying to be realistic here. Its still possible. And 2 weeks ago, I was as optimistic as you. But they've played lousy over the last 2 weeks. "Back against the wall" motivation (which I believe is a real thing) should have kicked in by now. And with this "we have to win NOW" additional motivation, the team has continued to struggle. To me, thats a sign that it may not be our year.