Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    FWIW, we're 3rd in scoring, more or less where we are supposed to be.  The league leader last year averaged 4.99 rpg.  We are averaging 5.00 this year.  If we average 5.00 for the year, we'll be doing fine.


    That's a big if, particularly when you look at how much a single game skewed our average.

    If you take the 13-0 win against Toronto and then replace it with your suggested scoring average (5-0), our average drops to 4.44 runs per game, or 720 on the season. With our current pitching staff, we need more.

    Looking back to the disaster that was last year, we scored 4.53 runs per game (734/162), so I hope you'll excuse me for not feeling complacent about our offense so far.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from stillallbost08. Show stillallbost08's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    FWIW, we're 3rd in scoring, more or less where we are supposed to be.  The league leader last year averaged 4.99 rpg.  We are averaging 5.00 this year.  If we average 5.00 for the year, we'll be doing fine.



    That's a big if, particularly when you look at how much a single game skewed our average.

     

    If you take the 13-0 win against Toronto and then replace it with your suggested scoring average (5-0), our average drops to 4.44 runs per game, or 720 on the season. With our current pitching staff, we need more.

    Looking back to the disaster that was last year, we scored 4.53 runs per game (734/162), so I hope you'll excuse me for not feeling complacent about our offense so far.




    what are the stats if you take out their  5-0 loss?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    FWIW, we're 3rd in scoring, more or less where we are supposed to be.  The league leader last year averaged 4.99 rpg.  We are averaging 5.00 this year.  If we average 5.00 for the year, we'll be doing fine.



    That's a big if, particularly when you look at how much a single game skewed our average.

     

    If you take the 13-0 win against Toronto and then replace it with your suggested scoring average (5-0), our average drops to 4.44 runs per game, or 720 on the season. With our current pitching staff, we need more.

    Looking back to the disaster that was last year, we scored 4.53 runs per game (734/162), so I hope you'll excuse me for not feeling complacent about our offense so far.



    You can't do the 'what ifs' unless you do the same thing for every team.  There is probably no change in the various positions of the teams if you lopped off their highest scoring game.  For example, if you take off our 13-run game and the NYY 14-run game, we actually about .07 closer to them.  Take off the BA 10-run game, and they are about .2 closer to us.

    IRT to last year, we lost Papi, WMB, Ellsbury, and Gonzo.  In the first three months, we averaged a healthy 5.18 rpg.  Once we lost most of the team to injuries/trade, we stopped scoring.  If we lose Papi, WMB, Ells, and Napoli to injuries at the same time, the same thing will happen this year.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Perhaps it's not fair to link Ells with Peedy since he does have the one home run, but if you told me that's all there'd be between them at this point I would have thought you crazy.

    That Ross in six games could match their combined HR output in 32 is kind of mind bending.

    I'm very glad that we can find a way to win without scoring much but I'm afraid that won't last much longer.

    I've been critical of Ortiz getting paid for being lame, but if our traditional long ball guys can't come around I don't know if we can get by without him.



    And a lot of other things...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    For example, if you take off our 13-run game and the NYY 14-run game, we actually about .07 closer to them.  Take off the BA 10-run game, and they are about .2 closer to us.

    I didn't subtract 13 runs -- I substituted five.

    How many runs did you add back for NYY after taking away the 14?

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Looking at two guys that combined for 53 HR in 2011, wouldn't it be nice if we could get at least 40 from between the two of them?

    I'd like 20 SBs from Papi, but it's unlikely to happen.  Pedey has one season with more than 17 HRs.  Ells has one season with more than 9 HRs.  You shouldn't expect 20 HRs from guys that simply don't hit 20 HRs.




    You should expect 15-20 home runs from  both of them at this point in their careers. Since Pedroia averages 17 and Ellsbury does have some power.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Stats: Another look ...

    No doubt there are a million, but I found this handy little web calculator ...

    http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/median/

    If you include ALL our games so far, runs scored looks like ...

    8,7,2,6,0,13,3,5,2,2,5,3,7,6,6,4

    Or sorted by the calculator ...
    0,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8,13


    Median: 5
    Mode: 2,6
    Mean: 4.9375
    StdDev: 3.0097497819586
    162 Games: 800 runs (799.875)

    That puts us right up there with Texas and NYY last year.

    But if you drop the low and high scoring games ...
    2,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8
    Mean: 4.66
    Median: 5
    StdDev: 2 (1.9206480387851)
    162 Games: 755 runs (754.92)

    That puts us 50 runs behind the output of the same two teams.

    Winning with 755 runs means we have to do much better in one run and extra innings games than we've done in the past two years. We have to do better with scoring opportunities. In the last couple of years, doing well for us meant we had to hit the ball a long way with runners on base. We couldn't play small ball and get them across the plate.

    We've already had more double steals than I remember in years. Maybe this is a sign of the new Sox coming thru.

    I already have more confidence in John Farrell than in the previous two managers combined, so maybe I shouldn't worry about the long ball.

    Time will tell!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    Looking at two guys that combined for 53 HR in 2011, wouldn't it be nice if we could get at least 40 from between the two of them?

    I'd like 20 SBs from Papi, but it's unlikely to happen.  Pedey has one season with more than 17 HRs.  Ells has one season with more than 9 HRs.  You shouldn't expect 20 HRs from guys that simply don't hit 20 HRs.

     




    You should expect 15-20 home runs from  both of them at this point in their careers. Since Pedroia averages 17 and Ellsbury does have some power.

     



    Either way, Burrito is right.  Neither are power hitters.   So the complaint is that neither hitter is doing what both never do anyway.

     

    Might as well complain about David Ross' inability to turn a DP...

     
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    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Other than Ortiz I didn't know we had any traditional long-ballers..... I suppose nobody listened to me after 2011 when I said Elles was more likely a 20 homer player... and Pedroia anytime he hits more than 12 then you should hold a party.




    and saying Ells is a 20HR a year guy was being very generous IMO.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    For example, if you take off our 13-run game and the NYY 14-run game, we actually about .07 closer to them.  Take off the BA 10-run game, and they are about .2 closer to us.


    I didn't subtract 13 runs -- I substituted five.

     

    How many runs did you add back for NYY after taking away the 14?



    Same thing.  If I subtract 13 and add 5 for the RS, and subtract 14 and 5 for the NYY, that means the differential between the two teams is one run closer, spread out over 15 games is still only about .06, in our favor.

    Think of it another way-if everyone had exactly one game where they scored 13 runs, and we deducted that game from everyone's rpg, then everyone would be in exactly the same position relative to everyone else, assuming everyone had the same number of games, or a relatively high enough sample count.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    yikes..this thread is now over a day old, and no Ells slapdown from Softy...what gives? Tongue Out

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    Perhaps it's not fair to link Ells with Peedy since he does have the one home run, but if you told me that's all there'd be between them at this point I would have thought you crazy.

    That Ross in six games could match their combined HR output in 32 is kind of mind bending.

    I'm very glad that we can find a way to win without scoring much but I'm afraid that won't last much longer.

    I've been critical of Ortiz getting paid for being lame, but if our traditional long ball guys can't come around I don't know if we can get by without him.

    I still have my concerns but Pede isn't one of them, his OBP is back to the way it should be which is a great sign.  Ells needs to raise his OBP, especially being our leadoff guy.  Salty seems to be reverting back to his normal offensive standards much sooner than last season and Middy is swinging at everything. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    No doubt there are a million, but I found this handy little web calculator ...

    http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/median/

    If you include ALL our games so far, runs scored looks like ...

    8,7,2,6,0,13,3,5,2,2,5,3,7,6,6,4

    Or sorted by the calculator ...
    0,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8,13


    Median: 5
    Mode: 2,6
    Mean: 4.9375
    StdDev: 3.0097497819586
    162 Games: 800 runs (799.875)

    That puts us right up there with Texas and NYY last year.

    But if you drop the low and high scoring games ...
    2,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8
    Mean: 4.66
    Median: 5
    StdDev: 2 (1.9206480387851)
    162 Games: 755 runs (754.92)

    That puts us 50 runs behind the output of the same two teams.

    Applying the same logic to TX last year, if we took off their top-10 highest and lowest scoring games, they'd have averaged 4.79 rpg.

    There aren't a lot of ways to explain this.  If you knock off ANYONE'S highest scoring games, then their average rpg will decrease.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    So it comes down to this: What was 2011 for Ells? What should we expect in his walk year? Based on that, what do you really think he'll go for in the FA market? And would we want him at that price?

    Last year we had 80 fewer HR than NYY.

    Can we repeat that and still expect to go far in October like that?

    We're currently hitting less than one HR per game. Can the return of Big Papi fix that all by itself?

    I think we need to make more changes to get more hits / more power. Maybe that doesn't come from Peedy / Ells, but it's got to come from somewhere.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from M1A2. Show M1A2's posts

    Re: Ells & Peedy: Where's the power?

    Lasitter, Ellsbury leads the Sox in total bases.  His OBP and OPS are down, but he is also in the top ten in the AL in runs scored.  You're blaming the wrong guy.

     

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