Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    He's not having a great year so far and also doesn't represent a great clubhouse dynamic. So I'm wondering:

    What kind of numbers does he have to produce to justify a qualifying offer from the Sox?

    What are the odds he / Boras would decline a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere?

    Who could we reasonably expect to get in a deal that involved Ells?

    It's a one game sample with Ells getting the day off, but I thought Victorino covered a lot of territory in center, and of course there are some that peg JBJ as a natural for that position.

    What kind of numbers would Ells have to turn in to justify a qualifying offer? Or various multi-year deals?

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    He's not having a great year so far and also doesn't represent a great clubhouse dynamic. So I'm wondering:

    What kind of numbers does he have to produce to justify a qualifying offer from the Sox?

    What are the odds he / Boras would decline a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere?

    Who could we reasonably expect to get in a deal that involved Ells?

    It's a one game sample with Ells getting the day off, but I thought Victorino covered a lot of territory in center, and of course there are some that peg JBJ as a natural for that position.

    What kind of numbers would Ells have to turn in to justify a qualifying offer? Or various multi-year deals?



    My guess is that he gets better as the season goes on and they make the offer, clearly hoping he gets a deal somewhere else, which he likely will.  The Yankees seem to be a good fit, among others, and they should have the money, while still being able to avoid going over the cap.

    It's no secret that the Sox aggressively tried to move him this winter, but they weren't going to give him away.  There are "rumors" that too many people in the Sox organization think he's too soft, and they have no intention of committing long term dollars to him, but I would be shocked if they didn't make him the qualifying offer.  They wouldn't be too upset to have him on a one year deal for 2014. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    A QO, I think this year will be $14 M---not sure. If the Sox make  a QO he may accept hoping he will have a better season in 2014 and get a nice multi year deal.

    Before I would trade him I would move him down in the order--7,8 or 9. It appears ShaVic has perhaps injured his back again. If he goes on the DL I could see BenC. bringing up JBJ; he's batting close to .320 and playing CF. He could slide into the leadoff slot.

    My suggestion would be trade Ells for a prospect.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.



    He very well could, especially if he doesn't pick it up, but there's plenty of time left in the season.  Angel Pagan was probably looking at a 1 or 2 year deal at 7 or 8 million per last August 1st, and parlayed a hot couple of months into 40 million.  Way too early to see how this plays out, but I don't think the Sox have any intention of offering Ellsbury a multi-year deal regardless how the rest of the season goes...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     



    He very well could, especially if he doesn't pick it up, but there's plenty of time left in the season.  Angel Pagan was probably looking at a 1 or 2 year deal at 7 or 8 million per last August 1st, and parlayed a hot couple of months into 40 million.  Way too early to see how this plays out, but I don't think the Sox have any intention of offering Ellsbury a multi-year deal regardless how the rest of the season goes...

     



    As well they shouldn't.

    Everyone assumed we'd get the draft choice as the last resort due to never trading him. Now, it seems we might not even end up with that.

    Sad.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     



    He very well could, especially if he doesn't pick it up, but there's plenty of time left in the season.  Angel Pagan was probably looking at a 1 or 2 year deal at 7 or 8 million per last August 1st, and parlayed a hot couple of months into 40 million.  Way too early to see how this plays out, but I don't think the Sox have any intention of offering Ellsbury a multi-year deal regardless how the rest of the season goes...

     

     



    As well they shouldn't.

     

    Everyone assumed we'd get the draft choice as the last resort due to never trading him. Now, it seems we might not even end up with that.

    Sad.



    There was definitely a lot of bad timing here, especially when you consider centerfielders were the deepest free-agent position this off-season, the Twins moved Span to the Nats and the Indians moved Choo to Cincy, two more teams looking for centerfield help.  The Sox supposedly tried really hard to move him, but they were willing to hope Ellsbury would have a big year if they couldn't.  Again, it's early, but right now it doesn't look good.   

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    If Vic is out for a bit with his new hamstring issue do they bring up JBJ or Brentz to take his place in RF? I say Brentz, so we at least see what he can do.

    As far as the QO...Its too early to give an answer to that. My guess is he will get at least a 4/48 offer regardless. Id be more cautious about giving him one if he doesnt pick things up though. Its early yet and hes better than this.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.




    Don't see it. Teams w/ $ to spend. I've said all along watch out for Mets. Santana and Bay contracts off the books after this year and desperate for OF help. Wilpons have said recently that their financial problems due to Madoff / Federal prosecutors fiasco in in the rears and will be looking to add payroll next year. With good young starters in Harvey / Niese / and Wheeler on the way a good young infield in Wright / Davis /Murphy / Tejada. Add 2 OF'ers to this team and you probably have a team that can compete for a playoff spot.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    I haven't looked closely enough at what teams need  CF or SS help but I think first moving Ells to a lower position in the lineup might get him thinking less at the plate. Grounding out weakly 4 X last night to 2 B should be enough to wake JF from a sound sleep. My observation is Ells is not looking for pitches he can hit to the SS-3 B hole--he is pull happy( thinking HR/Contract). To me the value of a lead-off guy is getting on base--Ells is pressing drop him in the order to see if he starts getting on base.

    I liked the move of Drew up in the order--he is more of a threat especially against RH pitching and he hung in pretty well with Thornton. He made all the plays last night--he's not spectacular--he's dependable--that's what I want to see in the field. At the plate I like to see contact and disipline with an occasional glimpse of power.  Find a way to work the count and get on base via a walk and a hit or two hits or two walks--get on base two times every game and you prove your offensive value.

    There have been some good solid recommendations re. this topic.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In reality, platooning Shane with Nava gets Shane's playing time down to a level where he and his old body will likely be more productive. I think Gomes will be more effective if he plays more, and I see no merit to doing anything to mitigate the mistaken 2 year deal he was given.

    I got you down for sitting Victorino in about 65% of the games. Gotcha. That's so Brentz and JBJ get a full shot. Gotcha.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     




     

    Don't see it. Teams w/ $ to spend. I've said all along watch out for Mets. Santana and Bay contracts off the books after this year and desperate for OF help. Wilpons have said recently that their financial problems due to Madoff / Federal prosecutors fiasco in in the rears and will be looking to add payroll next year. With good young starters in Harvey / Niese / and Wheeler on the way a good young infield in Wright / Davis /Murphy / Tejada. Add 2 OF'ers to this team and you probably have a team that can compete for a playoff spot.



    I doubt he takes the QO either, but it's looking more and more like it might happen.

    It's not just about wether a team may offer a longer term deal. Let's say the Sox offer the 1 year QO, and the Mets offer $42M/3; Ellsbury might think it's worth playing one year with the Sox, having a 2011 type season, and then making a bigger contract splash in 2014 (like $75M/5).

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Elles to the Giants..... 



    I suggested them as a target last summer and winter, but I think trading Ellsbury when his stock is so low, will not net us much more than what the possible draft pick is worth.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Red Sox should trade Ellsbury, but right now, he's in the tank. Worst case they should make the qualifying offer that Ellsbury will turn down. He will get a mutlit-year offer for at least base 10 or more, and will not risk getting another year older and trying a second run at a big season to get a bigger and longer contract.

    Perhaps we could get lucky, and BEN could put 2 or 3 together and get something decent back.......Jacoby, Salty, Bard,  or others ??????  The Sox are not going to see Jacoby & BORA$$ do anything but "play it safe" the rest of the season !!!


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    BILL, Bard will not bring anything of value back. His history of once being a great set-up man, and the possibility that he may one day regain that form, to me, makes him a keeper.

    If Ellsbury heats up a bit, I could see us trading Ellsbury and Salty to a contender at the deadline, but I'm not expecting great returns. If we are still in the race by then, I doubt Ben pulls that trigger, unless he makes another move to bring in pieces that seem to make us stay a 2013 contender.

    Idealy, I'd like to see us trade the one year control players for a longer team controlled player, but that's not an easy task.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to garyhow's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     




     

    Don't see it. Teams w/ $ to spend. I've said all along watch out for Mets. Santana and Bay contracts off the books after this year and desperate for OF help. Wilpons have said recently that their financial problems due to Madoff / Federal prosecutors fiasco in in the rears and will be looking to add payroll next year. With good young starters in Harvey / Niese / and Wheeler on the way a good young infield in Wright / Davis /Murphy / Tejada. Add 2 OF'ers to this team and you probably have a team that can compete for a playoff spot.

     



    I doubt he takes the QO either, but it's looking more and more like it might happen.

     

    It's not just about wether a team may offer a longer term deal. Let's say the Sox offer the 1 year QO, and the Mets offer $42M/3; Ellsbury might think it's worth playing one year with the Sox, having a 2011 type season, and then making a bigger contract splash in 2014 (like $75M/5).




    I would be willing to be Ells' get at a minimum, a 4 year deal the likes of michael Bourne. BJ Upton got 15M per with a bad BA and OBP. I realize hes about 2 years younger, but I can see 4 years for Ells, no problem.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    No way Ellsbury takes the qualifying offer from the Red Sox. He will get a better offer for mult-years, and he will take it. It will likely come from an NL team.

    The Yankees have Gardner and Granderson. Unless he has a serious injury, they will pick up Granderson's option and they will retain Gardner for another year. Both won't cost more than about 15 million, combined. No chance the Yankees trump the offers that will come from NL teams and, perhaps, the Rangers.

    His age and potential will create a multi-year option, even if he puts up marginal numbers in his final seaon with the Red Sox.

    The correct move is to try and trade to the NL teams who will offer more than the draft compesnation. In fact, they should be trying to do that, now.

    The Red Sox should not worry about the fragile state of Victorino, when decided whether or not to trade Ellsbury. They should take a long look at Brentz and go ahead and give the CF job to Bradley, Jr. Bradley, Jr. will take time to adjust to major league pitching (he will end up a solid OBP guy without more than occassional power to the pull side, but his defensive talents and leadership ability should be enough reason to invest the time in him this season.

    There is nothing impressive aobut this Red Sox OF, offensively or defensively. Time invested in Bradley and Brentz isn't going to impede the ability of Manager John to move this team to it's maximum potential for this season.  

    I would get on with it sooner than later, because if Bradley and Brentz are able to at least show inconsistent flashes of solid play, that means they can also look for a team with a starting OF'er injury to take on a large part of Victorino's freight going forward. If either one of the two rookies are overwhelmed, they can hang on to Shane for a little while longer.

    In reality, platooning Shane with Nava gets Shane's playing time down to a level where he and his old body will likely be more productive. I think Gomes will be more effective if he plays more, and I see no merit to doing anything to mitigate the mistaken 2 year deal he was given.

    My confidence in Manager John is strong. Moving players like Ellsbury and S. Drew isn't earth shattering at all, and I think getting rid of those two will bring an even better team because of the value of knowing that they are part of the team's future with this manager for years to come.

    I like the flexiblity of using Nava and Gomes and Shane as pinch hitters more often, when the don't start, as opposed to this everyday starter routine with Ellsbury and S. Drew. I like the better defensive CF and SS, and I like the stability that will come from moving on from the past to players who are vested in this organization for years to come.

    I think the sooner they move Ellsbury and S. Drew, the better, long before the AS break. 

    If the team gets to the All-star break and looks like I likely playoff team, they can then retain Shane, Napoli, Dempster and Salty. If they look like they won't make it, they should go ahead and sell those 4, as well.

    I think minus Ellsbury and S. Drew, they have a decent shot to make the playoffs with Shane and Npoli and Dempster and Salty still on the roster. They then can make a move to add a veteran starter who is a true few months salary dump as well as a pen arm to make a push to secure a playoff spot and win some playoff games.  

    I think unloading Ellsbury and S. Drew makes the roster more flexible for addition from the farm and outside.

    Neither Ellsbury or S. Drew are hitting, .750 OPS and lower, so it's quite clear that both of them and their prorated 20M costs for the top and bottom lineup hitters are totally expendable.

    S. Drew BA   .231 OBP .333  SLG .398  OPS .731   3HR

    Ellsbury BA   .241 OBP .303  SLG  .335  OPS .638  1HR

     

    Both of these guys are expendable, and Ellsbury will be attractive enough to net more than the draft compensation, even at his current levels.

    S. Drew's contract runs out in months, so a team with an injury at SS or 2B will have interest in taking on a large portion of his contract if he passes their physical tests.

    I do not like the idea of putting anymore time in these two guys, who are really in mercenary status with no real future with the Red Sox.

     




    Ehhhhhh.........I got bored at "No"......

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to garyhow's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     




     

    Don't see it. Teams w/ $ to spend. I've said all along watch out for Mets. Santana and Bay contracts off the books after this year and desperate for OF help. Wilpons have said recently that their financial problems due to Madoff / Federal prosecutors fiasco in in the rears and will be looking to add payroll next year. With good young starters in Harvey / Niese / and Wheeler on the way a good young infield in Wright / Davis /Murphy / Tejada. Add 2 OF'ers to this team and you probably have a team that can compete for a playoff spot.

     



    I doubt he takes the QO either, but it's looking more and more like it might happen.

     

    It's not just about wether a team may offer a longer term deal. Let's say the Sox offer the 1 year QO, and the Mets offer $42M/3; Ellsbury might think it's worth playing one year with the Sox, having a 2011 type season, and then making a bigger contract splash in 2014 (like $75M/5).

     




    I would be willing to be Ells' get at a minimum, a 4 year deal the likes of michael Bourne. BJ Upton got 15M per with a bad BA and OBP. I realize hes about 2 years younger, but I can see 4 years for Ells, no problem.

     



    I agree, but if he continues like this all year, it maybe a close call on Ellsbury taking a $52M/4 deal over a $13M/1 deal with hopes of driving up his deal with a great 2014.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    We're actually very thin in the outfield.  Yes JBJ should be ready to start next year but Victorino will be a year older and who knows what we will get from Nava/Gomes.  I'd give him a qualifying offer and if he accepts it maybe you get lucky and he repeats his 2011, in which case you give him another qualifying offer and get a draft pick when he leaves. 

    If Ells is seriously underperforming like he is now and this is a new norm (which I doubt it will be) then you are still off the hook for him after one year. 

    I'd be more willing to let him walk without offering him a 1-year if I had more confidence in Bryce Brentz and the other outfield prospects.  There are some guys I really like down there, but I don't know if any of them are close. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to garyhow's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    What I'm afraid of is Ells will take the qualifying offer, and try once again for a 2011 type season and paydirt.

     




     

    Don't see it. Teams w/ $ to spend. I've said all along watch out for Mets. Santana and Bay contracts off the books after this year and desperate for OF help. Wilpons have said recently that their financial problems due to Madoff / Federal prosecutors fiasco in in the rears and will be looking to add payroll next year. With good young starters in Harvey / Niese / and Wheeler on the way a good young infield in Wright / Davis /Murphy / Tejada. Add 2 OF'ers to this team and you probably have a team that can compete for a playoff spot.

     



    I doubt he takes the QO either, but it's looking more and more like it might happen.

     

    It's not just about wether a team may offer a longer term deal. Let's say the Sox offer the 1 year QO, and the Mets offer $42M/3; Ellsbury might think it's worth playing one year with the Sox, having a 2011 type season, and then making a bigger contract splash in 2014 (like $75M/5).

     




    I would be willing to be Ells' get at a minimum, a 4 year deal the likes of michael Bourne. BJ Upton got 15M per with a bad BA and OBP. I realize hes about 2 years younger, but I can see 4 years for Ells, no problem.

     

     



    I agree, but if he continues like this all year, it maybe a close call on Ellsbury taking a $52M/4 deal over a $13M/1 deal with hopes of driving up his deal with a great 2014.

     




    I see what your saying. I guess I figured that another year at age 31 and another possibility to get hurt versus him finally cashing in. 52M is a lot of cash. Then again, he could just me a money hungry, greedy player.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    Buy low, sell high... 

    Extend Ellsbury now while he is in a slump, it won't last. Say what you want about him but he leads our team in at bats, third in major leagues in steals and gets on base which is the equivalent of a basketball player who isn't shooting well but still provides defense, rebounding and sets picks.

    Ells will pull out of this slump and eventually will get his batting average up to 300, we'll be wishing we signed him when we could have had him much cheaper...

     
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