Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...
posted at 5/21/2013 12:25 PM EDT
In response to hill55's comment:
The updated 2013 ZIPS projections for Jacoby Ellsbury and Cleveland centerfielder Michael Bourn:
JE 570 PA, .261/.317/.387/.704, 69 R, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 32 SB
MB 554 PA, .275/.336/.386/.722, 76 R, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 36 SB
The ZIPS remainder-of-season projection for Ellsbury:
JE 362 PA, .273/.325/.417/.742, 45 R, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 20 SB
Last offseason agent Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million) for Michael Bourn, who in 2012 posted these numbers:
MB 703 PA, .274/.348/.391/.739, 96 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 42 SB
Bourn had been valued at 18.7 WAR* over his last four seasons before free agency; Ellsbury has been valued at 11.0 WAR (and counting) in his last four seasons, including 2013.
If the ZIPS projections hold true, a 30-year-old Ellsbury will be fortunate to land a contract comparable to the one landed last offseason by the 30-year-old Bourn.
* Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
Those numbers are a good starting point Hill, but then it comes down to supply and demand like it always does. Oh, and theres always that one GM who is willing to pay more. I believe Ells will pick it up and get closer to the norms which should bring him a deal in the MB range, if not more.
Im saying 12-14M per and between 4-6 years if he picks it up some.