Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    Buy low, sell high... 

    Extend Ellsbury now while he is in a slump, it won't last. Say what you want about him but he leads our team in at bats, third in major leagues in steals and gets on base which is the equivalent of a basketball player who isn't shooting well but still provides defense, rebounding and sets picks.

    Ells will pull out of this slump and eventually will get his batting average up to 300, we'll be wishing we signed him when we could have had him much cheaper...




    He wouldnt get this close to FA only to sign a team friendly deal.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    Whether he waits for season's end or extends now we should sign him.  Everyone is looking outward for our next great outfielder, sometimes they're sitting right under our nose.  Baseball is about streaks, we should make every effort to keep him or we'll be watching him excel on another club for the next decade.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    Whether he waits for season's end or extends now we should sign him.  Everyone is looking outward for our next great outfielder, sometimes they're sitting right under our nose.  Baseball is about streaks, we should make every effort to keep him or we'll be watching him excel on another club for the next decade.




    I believe we will have to wait and see what this years market dictates his worth to be. I dont think hes the 2011 player, but certainly no this one weve seen since his return last year either.

    Personally, and obviously I could be wrong, but it looks to me that Ells is trying to be that 2011 guy but the way hes approaching things. Whatever it is, its not working for him. It looks like hes trying to pull everything and overswinging on certain pitches resulting in soft grounders and weak flyballs.

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    If he doesn't turn it around, Ellsbury would be smarter to take a 1 year QO for $14mill than to take, say, a 4 year $40mill deal.

     

    Even if he struggles next season,  he could still get a 3 year $26mill offer and make the same money over the next 4 seasons.  That's Cody Ross cash.   Given the deal BJ Upton got, he would be advised thst he is leaving too much potential cash on the table

     

     

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    i agree with softy on this one.  Surprised

    there is no way bora$ will take QO.  he will have ells take the highest $$ contract.  that is how an agent gets paid.  and i agree with softy that it wont be the yankees and probably will be NL team.  regardless, hopefully he starts to hit this year and quick.  it doesnt matter that this drives his contract price up as we wont be buying him anyways.  but he can help us win games this year.  when he is hitting and getting on base he is dynamic.  it has been awhile since we have seen this but hopefully he can remind us all sooner than later.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

     Say what you want about him but he leads our team in at bats, third in major leagues in steals and gets on base ...

    .303 is not getting on base enough.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    i agree with softy on this one.  Surprised

    there is no way bora$ will take QO.  he will have ells take the highest $$ contract.  that is how an agent gets paid.  and i agree with softy that it wont be the yankees and probably will be NL team.  regardless, hopefully he starts to hit this year and quick.  it doesnt matter that this drives his contract price up as we wont be buying him anyways.  but he can help us win games this year.  when he is hitting and getting on base he is dynamic.  it has been awhile since we have seen this but hopefully he can remind us all sooner than later.



    If Ellsbury continues to have a bad year, Scott Boras will likely advise him to take a one year deal somewhere and take his chances after 2014.  That's exactly what he advised Adrian Beltre to do and that obviously worked out well.  

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to notin's comment:

    If he doesn't turn it around, Ellsbury would be smarter to take a 1 year QO for $14mill than to take, say, a 4 year $40mill deal.

     

    Even if he struggles next season,  he could still get a 3 year $26mill offer and make the same money over the next 4 seasons.  That's Cody Ross cash.   Given the deal BJ Upton got, he would be advised thst he is leaving too much potential cash on the table

     

     



    Exactly, and that's what I fear: we end up paying Ellsbury $14M for more of this.

    It's somewhat of a guessing game for Bora$$, and he's been known to guess wrong for his clients (See VTek).

    I think that even if BorA$$ thinks Ellsbury can get $52-56M/4, he may tell Ellsbury to take $14M/1 in hopes of a bigger payday the next winter.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to jasko2248's comment:


    If Ellsbury continues to have a bad year, Scott Boras will likely advise him to take a one year deal somewhere and take his chances after 2014.  That's exactly what he advised Adrian Beltre to do and that obviously worked out well.  

     



    while this is a possibility i think the beltre move was due to bad timing.  he was coming off the 1 bad year he had and a year he had injury limiting him to ~110 GP.  all number crunching led to beltre bouncing back to big numbers (especially slugging% due to amount of doubles in Fenway).  this was almost a no-brainer 1 year deal for Bora$. 

    as for JE, he has had 2 different seasons that have been shot due to injury and his current season is below expectation.  to think he will play 1 more year and not have injury or bounceback with big #'s is too risky. 

    IMO - Bora$ puts together one of his infamous player portfolios and sells someone on 5 years with big $$$.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     


    If Ellsbury continues to have a bad year, Scott Boras will likely advise him to take a one year deal somewhere and take his chances after 2014.  That's exactly what he advised Adrian Beltre to do and that obviously worked out well.  

     

     



    while this is a possibility i think the beltre move was due to bad timing.  he was coming off the 1 bad year he had and a year he had injury limiting him to ~110 GP.  all number crunching led to beltre bouncing back to big numbers (especially slugging% due to amount of doubles in Fenway).  this was almost a no-brainer 1 year deal for Bora$. 

     

    as for JE, he has had 2 different seasons that have been shot due to injury and his current season is below expectation.  to think he will play 1 more year and not have injury or bounceback with big #'s is too risky. 

    IMO - Bora$ puts together one of his infamous player portfolios and sells someone on 5 years with big $$$.



    I think Ellsbury will get some dumb GM to offer $75-80M/5. I'm hoping it's not Ben.

    I hope the sandwich pick ends up better than what we could have gotten for Ellsbury via trade, but I doubt that happens.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     


    If Ellsbury continues to have a bad year, Scott Boras will likely advise him to take a one year deal somewhere and take his chances after 2014.  That's exactly what he advised Adrian Beltre to do and that obviously worked out well.  

     

     



    while this is a possibility i think the beltre move was due to bad timing.  he was coming off the 1 bad year he had and a year he had injury limiting him to ~110 GP.  all number crunching led to beltre bouncing back to big numbers (especially slugging% due to amount of doubles in Fenway).  this was almost a no-brainer 1 year deal for Bora$. 

     

    as for JE, he has had 2 different seasons that have been shot due to injury and his current season is below expectation.  to think he will play 1 more year and not have injury or bounceback with big #'s is too risky. 

    IMO - Bora$ puts together one of his infamous player portfolios and sells someone on 5 years with big $$$.

     



    I think Ellsbury will get some dumb GM to offer $75-80M/5. I'm hoping it's not Ben.

     

    I hope the sandwich pick ends up better than what we could have gotten for Ellsbury via trade, but I doubt that happens.




    The Cubbies will have some extra money to spend. Especially with a bunch of their "kids" ready to play next year. I think Hoyer/Theo offer him 5 years between 12-14 if he stays on the same pace and goes to 15 if he hits his average numbers before 2011.

    297 .352 .449 .801
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to slasher9's comment:

     

    In response to jasko2248's comment:

     


    If Ellsbury continues to have a bad year, Scott Boras will likely advise him to take a one year deal somewhere and take his chances after 2014.  That's exactly what he advised Adrian Beltre to do and that obviously worked out well.  

     

     



    while this is a possibility i think the beltre move was due to bad timing.  he was coming off the 1 bad year he had and a year he had injury limiting him to ~110 GP.  all number crunching led to beltre bouncing back to big numbers (especially slugging% due to amount of doubles in Fenway).  this was almost a no-brainer 1 year deal for Bora$. 

     

    as for JE, he has had 2 different seasons that have been shot due to injury and his current season is below expectation.  to think he will play 1 more year and not have injury or bounceback with big #'s is too risky. 

    IMO - Bora$ puts together one of his infamous player portfolios and sells someone on 5 years with big $$$.

     



    I think Ellsbury will get some dumb GM to offer $75-80M/5. I'm hoping it's not Ben.

     

    I hope the sandwich pick ends up better than what we could have gotten for Ellsbury via trade, but I doubt that happens.



    All it takes is one team obviously, but from everything I've heard, it won't be Boston.  A lot can obviously change over the next 100 plus games, so I just think it's way too early to gauge how this will play out.  I agree that he will have plenty of suitors, and although I'm sure Hill will say the Mariners have 8 Minor League centerfielders who project to be better than Ellsbury, I think they are a team that makes sense in a lot of ways.  The Yankees on a 1 year deal would be the perfect situation to try to rebuild his value as well, as they will supposedly let Granderson walk. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    The updated 2013 ZIPS projections for Jacoby Ellsbury and Cleveland centerfielder Michael Bourn:

    JE 570 PA, .261/.317/.387/.704, 69 R, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 32 SB

    MB 554 PA, .275/.336/.386/.722, 76 R, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 36 SB

    The ZIPS remainder-of-season projection for Ellsbury:

    JE 362 PA, .273/.325/.417/.742, 45 R, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 20 SB

    Last offseason agent Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million) for Michael Bourn, who in 2012 posted these numbers:

    MB 703 PA, .274/.348/.391/.739, 96 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 42 SB

    Bourn had been valued at 18.7 WAR* over his last four seasons before free agency; Ellsbury has been valued at 11.0 WAR (and counting) in his last four seasons, including 2013.

    If the ZIPS projections hold true, a 30-year-old Ellsbury will be fortunate to land a contract comparable to the one landed last offseason by the 30-year-old Bourn.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    Leading in AB's is more a function of where he hits in the order, a decision that's coming into question more and more. 

    I've aways been a big Ellsbury fan and wanted to try to sign him ASAP...but...

    with his current offensive production he becomes a leadoff hitter who can't get on base and a defensive CF with an average arm.  His stock in trade has always been his speed and players seldom get faster after they reach 30.  What's that make him defensively in 2016 when he's 33? 

    He may come out of this thing and I hope he does. I hope he goes on a tear than brings 2013 numbers up to his (uninjured) career average but until he does I wouldn't go out and sign him to any contract longer than one year.

    I'd rather pay more for him in September or see him go than possibly be saddled with an albatross contract through, say 2018 or later. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    The updated 2013 ZIPS projections for Jacoby Ellsbury and Cleveland centerfielder Michael Bourn:

    JE 570 PA, .261/.317/.387/.704, 69 R, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 32 SB

    MB 554 PA, .275/.336/.386/.722, 76 R, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 36 SB

    The ZIPS remainder-of-season projection for Ellsbury:

    JE 362 PA, .273/.325/.417/.742, 45 R, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 20 SB

    Last offseason agent Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million) for Michael Bourn, who in 2012 posted these numbers:

    MB 703 PA, .274/.348/.391/.739, 96 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 42 SB

    Bourn had been valued at 18.7 WAR* over his last four seasons before free agency; Ellsbury has been valued at 11.0 WAR (and counting) in his last four seasons, including 2013.

    If the ZIPS projections hold true, a 30-year-old Ellsbury will be fortunate to land a contract comparable to the one landed last offseason by the 30-year-old Bourn.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     




    Those numbers are a good starting point Hill, but then it comes down to supply and demand like it always does. Oh, and theres always that one GM who is willing to pay more. I believe Ells will pick it up and get closer to the norms which should bring him a deal in the MB range, if not more.

     

    Im saying 12-14M per and between 4-6 years if he picks it up some.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Last offseason agent Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million) for Michael Bourn, who in 2012 posted these numbers:

    MB 703 PA, .274/.348/.391/.739, 96 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 42 SB

    Bourn had been valued at 18.7 WAR* over his last four seasons before free agency; Ellsbury has been valued at 11.0 WAR (and counting) in his last four seasons, including 2013.

    If the ZIPS projections hold true, a 30-year-old Ellsbury will be fortunate to land a contract comparable to the one landed last offseason by the 30-year-old Bourn.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs



    But Ellsbury's 4 seasons of WAR include 2 seasons, 2010 and 2012, in which he played a total of 92 games.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    Last offseason agent Scott Boras landed a four-year, $48 million contract (with a team option for a fifth year at $12 million) for Michael Bourn, who in 2012 posted these numbers:

    MB 703 PA, .274/.348/.391/.739, 96 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 42 SB

    Bourn had been valued at 18.7 WAR* over his last four seasons before free agency; Ellsbury has been valued at 11.0 WAR (and counting) in his last four seasons, including 2013.

    If the ZIPS projections hold true, a 30-year-old Ellsbury will be fortunate to land a contract comparable to the one landed last offseason by the 30-year-old Bourn.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     



    But Ellsbury's 4 seasons of WAR include 2 seasons, 2010 and 2012, in which he played a total of 92 games.

     



    Yes, and I guess is depends if a GM thinks those missed years were not part of being injury-prone.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    Baseball is about streaks, we should make every effort to keep him or we'll be watching him excel on another club for the next decade.


    But which team / division / league?

    Having a good year with the Dodgers is not the same as having a good year in the AL East.

    And do we have any reason to expect him to be LESS brittle with age? I imagine he's making more of an effort to play thru aches and pains in his walk year than before.

    He's just not the same force in the clubhouse that Pedroia is. He's made it clear that he has no great well of loyalty for the Red Sox and that getting the absolute max for himself is pretty much what matters. Sadly, that is the norm today, but it shouldn't draw the same kind of offer from us that a franchise player would.

    So I don't want him for 14M even if he pulls out of his slump. I just want to do as good a job of getting the most out of him as he's done so far getting the most out of us.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to wozzy's comment:
    Baseball is about streaks, we should make every effort to keep him or we'll be watching him excel on another club for the next decade.

    But which team / division / league?

    Having a good year with the Dodgers is not the same as having a good year in the AL East.



    A minor point, but the National League West has produced the World Series champion in two of the last three years while the American League East has failed to even send a team to the World Series in those three years. Any disparity between leagues tends to be overstated.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    From this morning's chat with FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-52113/


    9:48 [ Comment From BradleyJR : ] Jacoby Ellsbury, can you speak to his apparent constant overranking by folks? His 2011 appears to be an outlier, and his other seasons show mediocre on-base skills. He scores runs and steals bases, but so does Aoki & Gardner. Your thoughts on him?     9:49 Jeff Sullivan: It's hard to forget a 9-WAR season. Especially when it happened just two years ago.      9:50 Jeff Sullivan: Going to be interesting to see if Ellsbury ends up like Adrian Beltre -- a good regular player who feels like something of a disappointment because he hit an early impossible peak.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    And do we have any reason to expect him to be LESS brittle with age? I imagine he's making more of an effort to play thru aches and pains in his walk year than before.

    The player I most compare him to is Johnny Damon and they were saying the same thing about Damon at this age.  Granted Ellsbury has looked more brittle but it's not like he has been faking injury.  Not surprising that his personal struggles have mirrored the team struggles over the last month, hopefully he won't slump much longer because we need him to play well.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    For some reason , Ellsbury seems to be the kind of player that people find it hard to be objective about. From reading the posts , there definitely seems to be bias , both pro and con. He seems to bring that out more than most players.  Then again , being truly objective about almost anything is becoming more and more of a rarity. We are only fans , but let's hope the decision makers use common sense and objectivity , and avoid the personal likes and dislikes. That is the way to run a business. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    For some reason , Ellsbury seems to be the kind of player that people find it hard to be objective about. From reading the posts , there definitely seems to be bias , both pro and con. He seems to bring that out more than most players.  Then again , being truly objective about almost anything is becoming more and more of a rarity. We are only fans , but let's hope the decision makers use common sense and objectivity , and avoid the personal likes and dislikes. That is the way to run a business. 



    softy has a way of bringing this out in posters.

    The huge 2011 season makes some see great potential and skill level, while others wonder if it was just an outlier.

     
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