Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I assume that only a contending team would be interested in an Ellsbury rental of less than four months. Any proposals?

    DBacks would be willing to unload Adam Eaton, if they plan on retaining Ellsbury as a FA.

    Nats would be willing to unload Brian Goodwin, if they plan on retaining Ellsbury as a FA.

    Giants would be willing to unload Kyle Crick, if they plan on retaining Ellsbury as a FA.

    DBacks would be willing to unload Trevor Story, if they plan on retaining Ellsbury as a FA.

    Less than the top tier prospects are dubious, so any team that currently wants Ellsbury a few months to try and sell tickets and/or improve playoff prospects and plans on retaining him as a FA isn't going to cling to some bottom half BA prospect.

    Due dilligence hasn't been done and isn't being done, I've seen that for a number of years. Which is why Ellsbury is still here.



    What evidence do you have that "due diligence has not been done" by the Red Sox front office?

    ZIPS projects a remainder-of-season on-base percentage of .325 for Jacoby Ellsbury and .367 for 24-year-old Arizona outfielder Adam Eaton, whose minor league OBP was 58 points higher than Ellsbury's minor league OBP.

    The Diamondbacks are not making that trade regardless of whether Ellsbury will sign an extension.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    ZIPS ?????  LOL.  I consider myself a good baseball fan. I watch the games with a critical eye , like a good scout would do. I take into account all the traditional stats , as well as past performance. But  I have neither the time or  inclination to try and figure out WAR and UZR and ZIPS.  Or any other of these alphabet soup fads.  I think it would be fair to say that most people in baseball would rate Ellsbury over Eaton.  

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    ZIPS ?????  LOL.  I consider myself a good baseball fan. I watch the games with a critical eye , like a good scout would do. I take into account all the traditional stats , as well as past performance. But  I have neither the time or  inclination to try and figure out WAR and UZR and ZIPS.  Or any other of these alphabet soup fads.  I think it would be fair to say that most people in baseball would rate Ellsbury over Eaton.


    What does your critical eye say about Adam Eaton?

    I can't find a remainder-of-season projection that has Jacoby Ellsbury's on-base percentage anywhere near Eaton's on-base percentage.

    It would be fair to say that few if any baseball executives would trade six years of Adam Eaton for four-plus months of Jacoby Ellsbury ... that proposed trade prompted me to provide statistics.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    ZIPS ?????  LOL.  I consider myself a good baseball fan. I watch the games with a critical eye , like a good scout would do. I take into account all the traditional stats , as well as past performance. But  I have neither the time or  inclination to try and figure out WAR and UZR and ZIPS.  Or any other of these alphabet soup fads.  I think it would be fair to say that most people in baseball would rate Ellsbury over Eaton.



    What does your critical eye say about Adam Eaton?

     

    I can't find a remainder-of-season projection that has Jacoby Ellsbury's on-base percentage anywhere near Eaton's on-base percentage.

    It would be fair to say that few if any baseball executives would trade six years of Adam Eaton for four-plus months of Jacoby Ellsbury ... that proposed trade prompted me to provide statistics.



    How in the world could any reasonable person project anything for Adam Eaton ? He has played a total of 22  games in MLB. In that time , he hit .259.  His OBP is based on the fact that he walked 14 times. Who knows how  that happened ?  To use the argument of six years vs four months is just trying to confuse the issue.   Of course Arizona would want to extend Ellsbury before they would trade for him. They don't need a four month rental. And , who knows if Eaton will amount to anything in six years.  You are taking an OBP of 22 games and running with it. That ( and ZIPS ) is extremely dubious. 

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    If the Red Sox remain in contention, would the Sox consider trading Jackie Bradley for four-plus months of a slumping player approaching his 30th birthday with Scott Boras as his agent?

    Discarding the comparison of Adam Eaton's 22 MLB games with Bradley's 12 MLB games, Eaton's career minor league line of .348/.448/.498/.946 stacks up well to Bradley's line of .311/.423/.472/.895.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    If the Red Sox remain in contention, would the Sox consider trading Jackie Bradley for four-plus months of a slumping player approaching his 30th birthday with Scott Boras as his client?

    Discarding the comparison of Adam Eaton's 22 MLB games with Bradley's 12 MLB games, Eaton's career minor league line of .348/.448/.498/.946 stacks up well to Bradley's line of .311/.423/.472/.895.



    Our OF is in need of some youth infusion very soon. Trading our best OF chip makes little sense. We are loaded with SS prospects. My bet is that fi we trade any prospect, it will be a SS and maybe a pitcher we have lost faith in, but other teams may covet.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    If the Red Sox remain in contention, would the Sox consider trading Jackie Bradley for four-plus months of a slumping player approaching his 30th birthday with Scott Boras as his client?

    Discarding the comparison of Adam Eaton's 22 MLB games with Bradley's 12 MLB games, Eaton's career minor league line of .348/.448/.498/.946 stacks up well to Bradley's line of .311/.423/.472/.895.

    Our OF is in need of some youth infusion very soon. Trading our best OF chip makes little sense. We are loaded with SS prospects. My bet is that fi we trade any prospect, it will be a SS and maybe a pitcher we have lost faith in, but other teams may covet.


    By the same token, with current outfielders Jason Kubel and Cody Ross, Arizona will need a "youth infusion very soon" in the outfield as well. I don't see the Diamondbacks trading Adam Eaton, as one poster suggested.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    What I like to do is compare the Minor League stats, between the 2. Ellsbury flew through the system. Not only that, he came up big in the 07 WS. As a kid. Pretty tough to do at such a critical time in the biggest stage of the season.
    Kurkjan said it best, people just dont realize how tough it is to play MLB baseball.
    He was so far advanced, he could have went from High Single A, and went right to Triple AAA, skipped Double AA altogther. Man among boys at that stage.

    Wozzy, great idea.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    Based on what I've seen from Ells this year he should be very careful about what "advice" he takes from Borass or he could become the next Jason Veritek. 

    You'll remember that Borass advised Veritek to explore the FA market to the tune of ~$10MM/year, only to find out that he was much more valuable to the Sox than to anyone else.  Ellsbury may very well find himself looking at GM's who don't want a leadoff hitter who can't get on base nor do they want a 30 year old speedster whose speed will decline as he gets older.  At least not for the kind of money Boras/Ells is demanding.

    My advice to Ells? 

    1) Start doing what you can do - hitting the ball where it's pitched.

    If you find you can do that...

    2(a) Retain Boras and call your local yacht broker about a new boat.

    If you find you can't hit the ball where it's pitched now

    2(b) Change agents and run, don't walk, to BC's office and talk about an extention to your current contract at a team-friendly price because nobody else is going to want you. 

    Otherwise you may find yourself seeing the footprints left by JV as you crawl back to BC, willing to play for whatever the team will pay you. 

    Oh, and one more thing, Ells, Don't ever think Boras is operating in your best interests.  YOUR best interests are secondary to the size and his percentage of your contract. 

    Boras is a leech, living off the blood of the players he represents.  The fact that he's a very good leech doesn't erase the fact that he's a leech.      

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Its early yet and injuries can happen, but if these teams are injury free at the deadline I don't see a reason to part with a top 100 prospect for Ells. Lets just hope Ells can improve and help the Sox, then we offer him a QO and receive a comp pick next year. If one of these teams should have a need for an OF'er arise, then we should at least discuss it.



    this

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    He's not having a great year so far and also doesn't represent a great clubhouse dynamic. So I'm wondering:

    What kind of numbers does he have to produce to justify a qualifying offer from the Sox?

    What are the odds he / Boras would decline a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere?

    Who could we reasonably expect to get in a deal that involved Ells?

    It's a one game sample with Ells getting the day off, but I thought Victorino covered a lot of territory in center, and of course there are some that peg JBJ as a natural for that position.

    What kind of numbers would Ells have to turn in to justify a qualifying offer? Or various multi-year deals?

     



    I wasn't sure if Ells would ever duplicate 2011 but never imagined him being this bad offensively.  I have also never seen him develop the skills necessary to lead off like laying down bunts and using the entire field a bit more over the years. 

     

    I'm also not sure why Ells thinks faking a bunt is scaring anyone.  If anything after doing it so long he could probably easiliy get a few hits if he tried.

    Now that would surprise an opposing pitcher, teammates and our fans.




    And should he ever swing at the first pitch of a ballgame, I will likely have a coronary.

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    If the Red Sox remain in contention, would the Sox consider trading Jackie Bradley for four-plus months of a slumping player approaching his 30th birthday with Scott Boras as his client?

    Discarding the comparison of Adam Eaton's 22 MLB games with Bradley's 12 MLB games, Eaton's career minor league line of .348/.448/.498/.946 stacks up well to Bradley's line of .311/.423/.472/.895.

    Our OF is in need of some youth infusion very soon. Trading our best OF chip makes little sense. We are loaded with SS prospects. My bet is that fi we trade any prospect, it will be a SS and maybe a pitcher we have lost faith in, but other teams may covet.


    By the same token, with current outfielders Jason Kubel and Cody Ross, Arizona will need a "youth infusion very soon" in the outfield as well. I don't see the Diamondbacks trading Adam Eaton, as one poster suggested.

     



    I agree. I do not see many teams beating down our door to get 2 months of Ellsbury. Maybe a key injury may change that picture.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    I wish I could find ZIPS or Steamer rest-of-season projections for both Jackie Bradley and Adam Eaton, but all I could track down were the ZIPS projections for Bradley and the Steamer projections for Eaton:

    JB 320 PA, .242/.329/.355/.684, 37 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 11 SB

    AE 372 PA, .295/.367/.422/.789, 51 R, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 18 SB

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11205&position=OF

    A more interesting question is whether the Arizona Diamondbacks would trade Adam Eaton for Jackie Bradley.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    If the Red Sox remain in contention, would the Sox consider trading Jackie Bradley for four-plus months of a slumping player approaching his 30th birthday with Scott Boras as his client?

    Discarding the comparison of Adam Eaton's 22 MLB games with Bradley's 12 MLB games, Eaton's career minor league line of .348/.448/.498/.946 stacks up well to Bradley's line of .311/.423/.472/.895.

    Our OF is in need of some youth infusion very soon. Trading our best OF chip makes little sense. We are loaded with SS prospects. My bet is that fi we trade any prospect, it will be a SS and maybe a pitcher we have lost faith in, but other teams may covet.


    By the same token, with current outfielders Jason Kubel and Cody Ross, Arizona will need a "youth infusion very soon" in the outfield as well. I don't see the Diamondbacks trading Adam Eaton, as one poster suggested.

     




    I dont think they will trade Eaton either for those reason too. Ells isnt going to sign an extension with anyone before he hits FA unless its a huge overpay.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    I wish I could find ZIPS or Steamer rest-of-season projections for both Jackie Bradley and Adam Eaton, but all I could track down were the ZIPS projections for Bradley and the Steamer projections for Eaton:

    JB 320 PA, .242/.329/.355/.684, 37 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 11 SB

    AE 372 PA, .295/.367/.422/.789, 51 R, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 18 SB

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11205&position=OF

    A more interesting question is whether the Arizona Diamondbacks would trade Adam Eaton for Jackie Bradley.


    In the interest of full disclosure, bad news this morning on Adam Eaton:

    https://twitter.com/SteveGilbertMLB/status/337255543641096192

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to hill55's comment:

    I wish I could find ZIPS or Steamer rest-of-season projections for both Jackie Bradley and Adam Eaton, but all I could track down were the ZIPS projections for Bradley and the Steamer projections for Eaton:

    JB 320 PA, .242/.329/.355/.684, 37 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 11 SB

    AE 372 PA, .295/.367/.422/.789, 51 R, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 18 SB

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11205&position=OF

    A more interesting question is whether the Arizona Diamondbacks would trade Adam Eaton for Jackie Bradley.


    In the interest of full disclosure, bad news this morning on Adam Eaton:

    https://twitter.com/SteveGilbertMLB/status/337255543641096192

     

     

    Bad news for sure

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Ellsbury will sign for the market rate, which isn't looking good right now. An NL team who is still a playoff chance and who is prepared to make a market offer for Ellsbury will trade some 2nd rate prospect like Eaton.



    So, first you said a top 100 prospect- now "second rate" is good enough.

    I have you down for being a flip-flopper.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ells: Deal, qualifying offer, or ...

    My point is simply this:  Whatever ZIPS may project for Eaton , or any other rookie , is totally irrelevant.  I would not put any faith in it whatsoever.  Also , I would much prefer that we go with Bradley. Hill can always be counted on to disparage our players and prospects. 

     
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