ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    His numbers are in the elite class at the moment.  .316 BA, .374 OBP  42 runs and 24 steals with 8 caught stealing.  He also provides a bit of pop (.482 Slugging pctg.)and plays an above average center field.  What is not to like?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    His pop is also legit. What is it now, 30 RBI's?
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    75% SB rate is not great.
    He's also run into too many outs that are not CSs.
    The "plays above average CF" is debateable.

    But,Ii agree: he is playing like an elite leadoff man now.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    Moon, but 75% is good.  I also think I have seen at least 2 CS that the ump blew the call so he should actually be 26 out of 32 which is very good.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from betterredthandead. Show betterredthandead's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    the "force" behind 7 straight wins is Ortiz and AGon, on the offensive side.

    His numbers are in the elite class at the moment.  .316 BA, .374 OBP  42 runs and 24 steals with 8 caught stealing.  He also provides a bit of pop (.482 Slugging pctg.)and plays an above average center field.  What is not to like?

    His numbers include the defensive side of the game, with CF being one of the critical defensive spots up the middle. He is not above average in centerfield. He is below average. He is 16th out of 23 CF'ers, for 2011, and worse over the bigger sample.

    Theo likes to pay players for career years. The essense of a player with a big sample is almost always the big sample.

    For those looking at current OBP and BA, for just a fraction of 2011, while looking at the small sample one must include the entire metrics.

    2011 v. LHP  BA .269 OBP .333

    2011 Caught Stealing % is high at 25% (Career low if 2011 season ended today)

    What Ellsbury really is is what his career metrics say he is:

    BA .294  OBP .348 SLG .415   UZR Negative 3.3
    (note, his 2011 stats do not reflect the fact that he hits lefty pitching about the same as right handed pitching, but they also do not reflect the true right handed averages, which are lower)

    Ellsbury is a weak defensive CF'er with a very weak arm

    Ellsbury is never going to be a career elite OBP player, nor is his reverse pivot short arm swing going to be a high tier overall career OPS average hitting profile

    Ellsbury primary talent is speed and good eye and hand coordiantion. Because he relies heavily on his speed, as the miles increase he will have a steep decline in BA, OBP, SB and defensive metrics over the last half of his career. He does not possess the natural talent and physical frame to maintain a long career as an everyday starter. 

    Given the fortune spent on Crawford, a similar profiled but more talented player with higher mileage that has already realized almost imedate rapid value depreciation, A smart GM would sell the Ellsbury 2 years of arbitration and possibly first full season of career high offensive metrics and obtain a young talented solid overall RH OF'er and invest the money in that way. 

    Ellsbury is a NL larger market highest and best use profile, and Theo has already committed to Crawford, long term. The farm is completely overweighted in LH punch and judy profiles, making the value in promoting from the farm and selling Ellsbury. Because he had 3 years of arbitration, his current short 2011 sample value increase has to offset some of that increase from his value over last winter. 

    Theo should learn to sell high during a better year, instead of usually paying for a career high year and getting the career average ranges that reveals the true talent limitations of the player. Not just for the sake of it, but because he has long term weakness holes and out of balance overloads on the farm and under contract for years to come.


     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    Career metrics aside, his key numbers for a leadoff man are trending up this season.  He is still developing and in my view has not peaked yet.  I truly believe his OBP will become much healthier than the paltry .348.  Also UZR ratings can vary from season to season(one of the years that Jeter won a gold glove he had the 2nd worst UZR in baseball for a shortstop). Billy Beane truly believes that Ells is not only the best defensive centerfielder in the league but also the best left and right fielder as well!  That is some pretty strong praise from a very good talent evaluator!  I think he is overstating Ells' abilities personally but he is still at least average regardless of current UZR metrics.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE]the "force" behind 7 straight wins is Ortiz and AGon, on the offensive side. His numbers are in the elite class at the moment .  .316 BA, .374 OBP  42 runs and 24 steals with 8 caught stealing.  He also provides a bit of pop (.482 Slugging pctg.)and plays an above average center field.  What is not to like? His numbers include the defensive side of the game, with CF being one of the critical defensive spots up the middle. He is not above average in centerfield. He is below average. He is 16th out of 23 CF'ers, for 2011, and worse over the bigger sample. Theo likes to pay players for career years. The essense of a player with a big sample is almost always the big sample. For those looking at current OBP and BA, for just a fraction of 2011, while looking at the small sample one must include the entire metrics. 2011 v. LHP  BA .269 OBP .333 2011 Caught Stealing % is high at 25% (Career low if 2011 season ended today) What Ellsbury really is is what his career metrics say he is: BA .294  OBP .348 SLG .415   UZR Negative 3.3 (note, his 2011 stats do not reflect the fact that he hits lefty pitching about the same as right handed pitching, but they also do not reflect the true right handed averages, which are lower) Ellsbury is a weak defensive CF'er with a very weak arm Ellsbury is never going to be a career elite OBP player, nor is his reverse pivot short arm swing going to be a high tier overall career OPS average hitting profile Ellsbury primary talent is speed and good eye and hand coordiantion. Because he relies heavily on his speed, as the miles increase he will have a steep decline in BA, OBP, SB and defensive metrics over the last half of his career. He does not possess the natural talent and physical frame to maintain a long career as an everyday starter.  Given the fortune spent on Crawford, a similar profiled but more talented player with higher mileage that has already realized almost imedate rapid value depreciation, A smart GM would sell the Ellsbury 2 years of arbitration and possibly first full season of career high offensive metrics and obtain a young talented solid overall RH OF'er and invest the money in that way.  Ellsbury is a NL larger market highest and best use profile, and Theo has already committed to Crawford, long term. The farm is completely overweighted in LH punch and judy profiles, making the value in promoting from the farm and selling Ellsbury. Because he had 3 years of arbitration, his current short 2011 sample value increase has to offset some of that increase from his value over last winter.  Theo should learn to sell high during a better year, instead of usually paying for a career high year and getting the career average ranges that reveals the true talent limitations of the player. Not just for the sake of it, but because he has long term weakness holes and out of balance overloads on the farm and under contract for years to come.
    Posted by betterredthandead[/QUOTE]

    What a bunch of garbage.  Ellsbury is playing great and you can't stand it.  He set the table in each of the recent big wins giving the middle of the order the opportunity to do damage.  His at bat in the 7th inning against CC was the key to the 7th inning explosion.  If you can't even admit that, you are a bigger fraud than I think you already are.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedDead2067. Show RedDead2067's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    This time last year, a lot of people wanted to trade Ellsbury for a bag of balls for being soft.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from letswinsox. Show letswinsox's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    His caught stealing rate is a bit high. He is a bit overagressive on the bases. He is super-fast, but he needs to work on his base-running. I recently saw a SABRmetric type stat showing that he is a questionable base-runner because of his overagressiveness and poor decision maker. JD Drew, on the other hand, is a great baserunner because he combines his speed with good decision making. That being said, Ells is a far superior talent.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    I still think back to Pedey's stellar MVP campaign.  Some key numbers that year: a league leading 54 doubles a .326 batting average a very respectable .376 OBP 200+ hits 118 runs scored and 20 steals.  BUT HE WAS CAUGHT STEALING EXACTLY ONE TIME ALL YEAR!!! This is nothing short of remarkable and Ells should learn some of Pedey's tactics! First of all,  Pedey has not nearly the speed of Ells, his speed is probably average in MLB at best but he has phenomenol instincts and knows exactly WHEN to steal.

     By no means is this an idictment of Ells but sometimes gifted athletes rely a bit too much on raw ability and fail to utilize the resources of their brain, cunning and the element of surprise.  Ricky Henderson was the master of both!
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    Betterdead is as usual full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    The key to this team is the offense, and Adrian Gonzalez is the key to the offense with stats that should make him the AL MVP.  Plus he fields his position flawlessly and has apparently shown his teammates how to hit to the opposite field.

    Ortiz, despite a stupendous year in comparison to the last three or so--his OPS is near 1000, and he is the best DH in the world--is not yet a key to the offense.  He has exactly 4 more rbi's than Jake. 

    Ellsbury's American League stats jump off the page--

    1st in SB's with 5 more than the second best.
    1st in doubles.
    2d in hits.  That's right, 2d in hits.
    3d in runs scored.
    9th in total bases.
    14th in OPS.

    Among AL players with 12 or more SB's, he is the only solid hitter.

    Among the top 15 hitters as measured by OPS), he is the only one with game-changing speed.

    He is the perfect counterpoint to Adrian Gonzalez and demonstrably the other engine that drives the Red Sox offense.  He is doing exactly what the Sox are paying Carl Crawford $20 million to do. 

    And, unlike Carl, he can play centerfield.  From 2007 to the present he has made exactly 2 errors, and his undeniable speed is a huge asset when patrolling the center part of the outfield. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    For what it's worth the all time steals leader and the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of the game had 1406 steals and was caught stealing only 335 times for a percentage of 81%.  This is over more than a 20 year period and will never be equalled obviously.  However, the fact that Hendu was able to compile these numbers even at an advanced age demonstrates that he was most certainly NOT merely relying on raw ability.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from gvurkkf. Show gvurkkf's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE] Because he relies heavily on his speed, as the miles increase he will have a steep decline in BA, OBP, SB and defensive metrics over the last half of his career. He does not possess the natural talent and physical frame to maintain a long career as an everyday starter.  [/QUOTE]

    Not sure many would agree with that.  James has demonstrated, persuasively, that it is generally guys with speed who have the longest careers.  Your comment that he is what is career stats says he is is absurd.  Is Jeter today what his career stats say he is?  Of course not, he's a player in decline. Ellsbury's OBP his last two full seasons: .336, then .355.  So far  this year, .374.  Do you see a pattern there?  

    Ellsbury looks a lot like he will have a Johnny Damon-type career.  Damon has an outside shot at the Hall.  
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man : Not sure many would agree with that.  James has demonstrated, persuasively, that it is generally guys with speed who have the longest careers.  Your comment that he is what is career stats says he is is absurd.  Is Jeter today what his career stats say he is?  Of course not, he's a player in decline. Ellsbury's OBP his last two full seasons: .336, then .355.  So far  this year, .374.  Do you see a pattern there?   Ellsbury looks a lot like he will have a Johnny Damon-type career.  Damon has an outside shot at the Hall.  
    Posted by gvurkkf[/QUOTE]

    He has yet to hit his peak seasons(this is perhaps season 1) and his OBP is only going to increase.  I see him probably maxing out at around .380, among the best in MLB for a leadoff guy.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SleeStack1. Show SleeStack1's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    Softy sure loves his goal posts.  I think it would get tiring digging them up all the time and lugging them downfield.

    It wouldn't matter if Ellsbury continues playing well this season and all of next season.  the response would be...hes doomed to fail...just wait til next month..and next month...and next month.

    I agree that a 75% SB rate is just good, not great, that he doesn't have the strongest arm, and that SOMETIMES he takes an imperfect route on fly balls.

    OK, so what does that amount to?  A VERY above average ALL-AROUND center fielder.  Why someone would continue to hate on him is beyond me.  I suspect Softy's racisism is just shining through against native americans.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE]Softy sure loves his goal posts.  I think it would get tiring digging them up all the time and lugging them downfield. It wouldn't matter if Ellsbury continues playing well this season and all of next season.  the response would be...hes doomed to fail...just wait til next month..and next month...and next month. I agree that a 75% SB rate is just good, not great, that he doesn't have the strongest arm, and that SOMETIMES he takes an imperfect route on fly balls. OK, so what does that amount to?  A VERY above average ALL-AROUND center fielder.  Why someone would continue to hate on him is beyond me.  I suspect Softy's racisism is just shining through against native americans.
    Posted by SleeStack1[/QUOTE]

    I have suspected racist overtones as well.  In the end it matters little, the self proclaimed "GM "of this board has a very tired act.  I try not to empower him and cite him very infrequently because it is what he thrives on and I want no part of contributing to it!

     Ellsbury would be a welcome addition to exactly 30 MLB teams at any point.  No player is perfect not even Pujols.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from gvurkkf. Show gvurkkf's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    Listen, this Ellsbury-bashing is absurd.  Like almost all players, he has a couple of areas that aren't strong (routes and arm).  But look where he ranks in the American League:

    Hits: 2nd
    Runs: 3rd
    Stolen bases: 1st
    Ba: 6th
    OBP: 11th
    WAR: 9th (just behind Gonzo)

    The guy is emerging as one of the elite players in the league.  Get over it.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimdavis. Show jimdavis's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE]His caught stealing rate is a bit high. He is a bit overagressive on the bases. He is super-fast, but he needs to work on his base-running. I recently saw a SABRmetric type stat showing that he is a questionable base-runner because of his overagressiveness and poor decision maker. JD Drew, on the other hand, is a great baserunner because he combines his speed with good decision making. That being said, Ells is a far superior talent.
    Posted by letswinsox[/QUOTE]

    Ellsbury needs to get better and that comes with age.  He has an old school mentality that the best base stealers must have.  Tim Raines would get to first base and tell the first baseman he was going.  It did not matter what the pitcher did.  He could throw over, slide step, or pitch out.  Tim was going regardless.  So I'm sure these guys get caught more than we'd like but that the downside to the base stealer.  I'd much rather put the pressure on like in NY this week.  For years it happened to us.  Now we make it happen.  It is sweet to be on the other side.  This is why always hated Mickey Rivers and why I love Jacoby.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    If you really look at the numbers, Ellsbury's arm is not hurting us much at all. He consistently hits the cut off guy. My main complaint with his arm is that he takes so long to release his throws. He is very careful in everything he does. As he matures he seems to get more comfortable with things. They are more automatic.

    For example, he hit a chopper to SS yesterday. In the past he would have gotten a relatively slow start to first and probably even looked to SS on his way to first. Yesterday he immediately started running and ran like a sprinter to 1st. Not looking once. THAT is what he is supposed to do. He blew past 1st in record time and the play really wasn't even close. I've seen him with that sort of play in the past and he didn't convert it. He could get an extra 10 hits a year if he just could respond more quickly to the opportunities he does have.



    His routes to balls will also become more automatic over time. Maybe some day he'll even pull off a few bunt hits and be perfect! Cool
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    He has run into some outs which required perfect throws to convert. Sometimes you take that chance with 2 outs and such. The guy is scoring some runs even with Pedroia's low average hitting behind him. He is putting himself in position to score a lot. Note that Youk hasn't hit for average much either. Agreed that Adrian is doing his job but if we add it up, Adrian should project for more HR and both Pedroia and Youk should hit for higher average. Ellsbury could even improve his run scoring ability with more support behind him.

    Look at Ellsbury's RBI totals with guys like Tek, Salty, the .230 hitting Drew etc...in front of him. It's not like there are a ton of RBI opportunities for him.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man : Ellsbury needs to get better and that comes with age.  He has an old school mentality that the best base stealers must have.  Tim Raines would get to first base and tell the first baseman he was going.  It did not matter what the pitcher did.  He could throw over, slide step, or pitch out.  Tim was going regardless.  So I'm sure these guys get caught more than we'd like but that the downside to the base stealer.  I'd much rather put the pressure on like in NY this week.  For years it happened to us.  Now we make it happen.  It is sweet to be on the other side.  This is why always hated Mickey Rivers and why I love Jacoby.
    Posted by jimdavis[/QUOTE]

    Great observations Jim.  Sometimes it is necessary to sacrifice a few caught stealings to create chaos among opposing pitching.  It doesn't necessarily show up in the box score but it is game changing.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from william93063. Show william93063's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    In Response to Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man:
    [QUOTE]With all due respect to Raines, Henderson and all that played in a era 70 & 80's an era when pitchers and catchers didn't focus on thier times to home and 2nd, it was becuase of them and guys like Vince Coleman and the sucess of his Cardinal teams with Ozzie and Mcgee et al that an emphasis was placed on "controlling" the running game...That's why you don't see guys swiping 100 bags anymore. Enter the stop watch...every team has scoutingreports on a pitchers time to the plate and a catchers time to 2nd...it's all math, the the goal is for the pitcher to be 1.2 to 1.3 seconds to home and the catcher under 1.8-1.9seconds to second base, thus giveing them a chance to throw out the would be base stealers... In regards to his SB% posted above my Moon...The minimum standard by which the elite base stealers are judged is 80%...Ell's currently is 24 of 32 (75%) The differnce between 75% and 80%, is 2, if Ells successful on 2 of the 8 that he's been thrown out, his SB% would be in line with the elite level...Over the coarse of the season that not a huge margin to close...What also skews the numbers is when he's thrown out on hit runs where he has to run regardless of his jump... Make no mistake about it, the benificiary of his speed when he's on first is Pedrioa. Who has learned to take advantage of the whole on the right side and if the pitcher comes inside he can pull the ball with with the SS covering or shading to 2nd...
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]

    If you saw my response to Moon I actually mentioned that I have seen 2 instances this season when Ells appeared to be safe on a steal and was called out.  Therefore in my mind he is at 80%.  The critics have little to stand on with this guy and they need to just stop the silliness.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: ELLS is a legitimate high caliber leadoff man

    Ellsbury is rapidly becoming one of the best all around players in the game. When you deny the obvious, you simply lose all credibility.
     
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