Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    I've been absolutely disgusted with the guy for several reasons, but it's time to try to buy low.

    I would offer the guy, $13 million / yr.  for 5 years.  Big departure from earlier in the year.

    I always thought the kid has real talent, but became disallusioned with him thus far.  The kid still has it!

    $13 / yr., 5 years would be a fantastic deal, but one he would no doubt turn down.

    I would structure it with BIG bonuses for proformance.  Still he would likely turn it down. Borrus

    13 - 15 / yr, 5 year deal, and we definitely get our money's worth one way or another.  Keep - trade - whatever.

    We have, & need to keep the excellent OF we have.  Bradley will likely be the future, especially after Vic is gone!

     

    Ells is making a run.......   Time to buy low if possible????

     

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    $8 million per for 2 years....  you won't want him around longer than that.




    That would be great, if it were realistic.

     

    Like it or not, and I DON'T!!!  The market for OF'rs is WAY overinflated!  His real market value, despite his prolonged slump, injuries, etc.  is over $13M/ yr.  It will only go higher for players of similar talent.

    I'm still convinced the kid is a solid .300 hitter, with pop potential.

    He's got speed to burn!!!!!  Will end up with 50-60 SB

    OBP of .375+

    OPS of .785+

    the market never lies.  We may not like it, but it doesn't lie.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Okay... 2 years at whatever dollars... trust me you don't want him after 2015... especially at "realistic" dollars




    Pre-June, I wanted him GONE!  No doubt about it!

    I think he's turning a corner, & will come on strong!!!!  :)  Good news either way.

    If we let him go, we WILL live to regret it.  We will likely have to replace all his assets at similar dollars.  I don't think we will be able to find most of what he WILL OFFER for less than $15+ M/ yr. 5 yr. deal???

     

    Paps should be a cautionary tale!  We should know what we have, & seek NOT to lose it.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    This guy will be another Papelbon situation. He and his agent know the organization is filthy rich, they know where they stand among similar talents.

    You won't "BUY LOW" with this guy anymore than you could with Papelbon. The trend in MLB is for players to establish themselves until they hit their early 30s and then sign a long-term deal for huge money to carry them through until they hit their early 40s. After signing such a contract they can switch to cruise control. (see A-FRAUD and Albert POO- halls).

    I would not even make an offer for this fragile, self-centered underacheiver. I would groom Jackie Bradley to replace him on center and look for a Victorino-type player for the future in RF...and look to add a power bat with decent defensive skills for LF. The 2004 team won with a so-so outfield. Manny was your power bat, with less than perfect defensive ( although not as bad as most people want you to believe) skills, Damon was your speed guy with good defense ( although no throwing arm whatsoever...Jackie Bradley could fill that roll soon), Trot Nixon was just a hard as nails, dirt dog with more guts than talent....oddly enough this type player is the type that is the most difficult to find in sports today, too many are prima-donnas who are only in it for the money, winning doesn't really excite them that much.

    "There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why.....I dream of things that never were and ask why not?"- Robert Kennedy

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW


    p.s.   the only thing the kid will never have is an arm better than my sister's ;)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Okay... 2 years at whatever dollars... trust me you don't want him after 2015... especially at "realistic" dollars




    This may be "Softylogic", trying to predict what the market is going to be in three years.  As unrealistic as it seems right now, $14M may be a very realistic salary for a person of Ell's skills in 2016. 

    I'd like to see him roam CF for another five years with JBJ at one of the corners, but only IF we can get him for "the right price".  At this moment I think $70MM for five years is realistic and I'd make an offer in that ballpark. 

    What I know for sure is that if the Sox don't make him an offer of some kind sometime he'll be gone next year.  So do it.  "Leave it all on the field".

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    This guy will be another Papelbon situation. He and his agent know the organization is filthy rich, they know where they stand among similar talents.

    You won't "BUY LOW" with this guy anymore than you could with Papelbon. The trend in MLB is for players to establish themselves until they hit their early 30s and then sign a long-term deal for huge money to carry them through until they hit their early 40s. After signing such a contract they can switch to cruise control. (see A-FRAUD and Albert POO- halls).

    I would not even make an offer for this fragile, self-centered underacheiver. I would groom Jackie Bradley to replace him on center and look for a Victorino-type player for the future in RF...and look to add a power bat with decent defensive skills for LF. The 2004 team won with a so-so outfield. Manny was your power bat, with less than perfect defensive ( although not as bad as most people want you to believe) skills, Damon was your speed guy with good defense ( although no throwing arm whatsoever...Jackie Bradley could fill that roll soon), Trot Nixon was just a hard as nails, dirt dog with more guts than talent....oddly enough this type player is the type that is the most difficult to find in sports today, too many are prima-donnas who are only in it for the money, winning doesn't really excite them that much.

    "There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why.....I dream of things that never were and ask why not?"- Robert Kennedy




    Perhaps in more than 1 way!

     

    Sox made a HUGE MISTAKE on Paps!!!!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    I don't think you will see him sign for less than BJ Upton.    5 years $15 M I think it's what he gets.

    Compare  current numbers for Ells and ShaVic; with the exception of stolen bases and triples--OBP, Slg. are about the same BA is close. I'd offer  him a QO of $14 to get the pick. I think he will wind up a NY Yankee and have a great remainder of his career there.

    I think next season we have an outfield featuring JBJ and ShaVic with Brentz, Nava and Hassan??

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

     

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    This guy will be another Papelbon situation. He and his agent know the organization is filthy rich, they know where they stand among similar talents.

    You won't "BUY LOW" with this guy anymore than you could with Papelbon. The trend in MLB is for players to establish themselves until they hit their early 30s and then sign a long-term deal for huge money to carry them through until they hit their early 40s. After signing such a contract they can switch to cruise control. (see A-FRAUD and Albert POO- halls).

    I would not even make an offer for this fragile, self-centered underacheiver. I would groom Jackie Bradley to replace him on center and look for a Victorino-type player for the future in RF...and look to add a power bat with decent defensive skills for LF. The 2004 team won with a so-so outfield. Manny was your power bat, with less than perfect defensive ( although not as bad as most people want you to believe) skills, Damon was your speed guy with good defense ( although no throwing arm whatsoever...Jackie Bradley could fill that roll soon), Trot Nixon was just a hard as nails, dirt dog with more guts than talent....oddly enough this type player is the type that is the most difficult to find in sports today, too many are prima-donnas who are only in it for the money, winning doesn't really excite them that much.

    "There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why.....I dream of things that never were and ask why not?"- Robert Kennedy



    I'm talking 4 - 5 years max!!!!   NO WHERE NEAR his 40's!

     

    NOBODY is going to go near a 7 - 10 yr deal with Ells, or anybody else for that matter!

    A-Rod & others have ENDED that practice!

     

    Ells would not have a prayer of securing that type of long term deal!

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW


    Think only hope is a one year pillow deal around 14 million. Really depends on how he finishes the year.

    2 years / 16 million might get you .......Coco Crisp.

    My big nightmare is the Mfng NYY bag him and his power returns.  Other than throwing arm, Bradley hasn't sold me yet.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    I've been absolutely disgusted with the guy for several reasons, but it's time to try to buy low.

    I would offer the guy, $13 million / yr.  for 5 years.  Big departure from earlier in the year.

    Even if he had gone on to tank in his walk year, this would not have been possible.

    Now that he's playing well it's looking more like we can extend a QO with some confidence and get a comp pick.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    Okay... 2 years at whatever dollars... trust me you don't want him after 2015... especially at "realistic" dollars




    This may be "Softylogic", trying to predict what the market is going to be in three years.  As unrealistic as it seems right now, $14M may be a very realistic salary for a person of Ell's skills in 2016. 

     

    I'd like to see him roam CF for another five years with JBJ at one of the corners, but only IF we can get him for "the right price".  At this moment I think $70MM for five years is realistic and I'd make an offer in that ballpark. 

    What I know for sure is that if the Sox don't make him an offer of some kind sometime he'll be gone next year.  So do it.  "Leave it all on the field".




    We will rue the day we let him go!

     

    I still contend that he has All-Star potential year in & year out when healthy.

    $15/yr for 5 years will be a bargain.  His only incentive will be doubt about his own future prospects????

    I'm not at all convinced he'd even take the deal!  I'd start at 4yr. 14M per year, but go up to 15 plus incentives.

     

    Long term?  It's a GREAT DEAL!  Time to make it!

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from thegrandsalami. Show thegrandsalami's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    I doubt that Borass is even taking offers at this point I think they will wait for a bit and I also believe that the Sox are planning to move ahead without him although I actually think that he (unlike most guys) will play better after a big deal I really believe that.Although he does appear soft I still think he will be a star and would hate to see him go somewhere else especially in the AL,if he must go I hope it's to the NL where he won't haunt us because you mark my words today that if he ends up in the AL East he will haunt us for years.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

     

    I've been absolutely disgusted with the guy for several reasons, but it's time to try to buy low.

    I would offer the guy, $13 million / yr.  for 5 years.  Big departure from earlier in the year.

     

     

    Even if he had gone on to tank in his walk year, this would not have been possible.

    Now that he's playing well it's looking more like we can extend a QO with some confidence and get a comp pick.




    Obviously!

    That's not the question....

    The question is....  TRY to sign him or let him walk

     

    If the Sox could make a 15M for 5 yr deal,  75M deal, is that a good deal?  Business wise?

    ABSOLUTELY!  Without a doubt in my mind!!!!

    & I was done with him earlier for many reasons. 

     

    It's simply the smart money move!

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    dirtdog, how was not signing Papelbon a "huge mistake?"

    Phillies, 3rd place, 35-39...7 1/2 games back.

    Red Sox 1st place, 45-31....no games back....

    Yes it would be nice to have more stability in the bullpen ( especially in the closer role) but as you can see, the Phillies spent the money on a closer and now cannot fill out the roster with enough players to get them in a race with rivals Atlanta and Washington...neither of which has a closer named Papelbon making Papelbon money....although Soriano is close, Kimbrel is making a (relatively) paltry 655,000 this year.

    "There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why.....I dream of things that never were and ask why not?"- Robert Kennedy

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to jimedfred's comment:

    My big nightmare is the Mfng NYY bag him and his power returns.  Other than throwing arm, Bradley hasn't sold me yet.

    I know NYY would love to have him, but he's going to be looking for serious long term money. They still have to get out from under the A-Rod money. The short porch in right might be perfect for him, and of course they'd really love his speed.

    Boras will want him to hold out for a fat 7-year deal, but it will be interesting to see how that shakes out.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    Long term?  It's a GREAT DEAL!  Time to make it!


    I would not want to give Boras the opportunity to laugh us out of the room on a 5/15 offer. No way Ells takes it, after having been told he's good for $20+ for years by Boras.

    I've never thought he was loyal enough to leave as much as one dollar on the table. Ells is going to follow the money -- it's that simple.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    I disagree with the OP.  Boras is very likely to get him a contract for more than he is worth, and the Sox already have a very good replacement hitting over .300 in AAA, Bradley.  Victorino is a fixture in RF for two more years and Nava is likely to be in left field.  Of course, Nava could move to utilility outfielder, putting, say, Bradley in LF, Ellsbury in CF, and Victorino in RF, which would probably the best fielding OF in MLB, but without much slugging ability. 

    I've always been an Ellsbury fan and think he is still the fastest Sox outfielder/hitter ever.  Good range in CF and a pretty good hitter.  But, 2011 notwithstanding, not much power.  No arm.  And absolutely not worth what Boras is likely to get for him.  Time to move on. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:



    That's not the question....

    The question is....  TRY to sign him or let him walk

     

    If the Sox could make a 15M for 5 yr deal,  75M deal, is that a good deal?  Business wise?

    ABSOLUTELY!  Without a doubt in my mind!!!!

    & I was done with him earlier for many reasons. 

     

    It's simply the smart money move!




    I could live quite nicely with that.  After all, what's another $5MM of someone else's money?  Smile

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    If he keeps hitting this way and ends up with a BA north of 300 and an OBP in the 370-380 range and 50+ SB, he will get 16M + for 5-7 years. The closer he gets to an 800OPS, the better the $$$. Hes at .741 now, and rising.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    dirtdog, how was not signing Papelbon a "huge mistake?"

    Phillies, 3rd place, 35-39...7 1/2 games back.

    Red Sox 1st place, 45-31....no games back....

    Yes it would be nice to have more stability in the bullpen ( especially in the closer role) but as you can see, the Phillies spent the money on a closer and now cannot fill out the roster with enough players to get them in a race with rivals Atlanta and Washington...neither of which has a closer named Papelbon making Papelbon money....although Soriano is close, Kimbrel is making a (relatively) paltry 655,000 this year.

    "There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why.....I dream of things that never were and ask why not?"- Robert Kennedy




     

    Simple!

     

    We've spent FAR MORE on patchwork Closers since letting Paps walk.

     

    We could have easily signed him if we had gone the extra mile.  We flat out didn't show him the love.  We walked him to the door, made a close offer, then let him go over not very much difference.  We were counting pennies, & were penny foolish - pound foolish.

    Simple!

     

    Now we've gone through a series of UNPROVEN relatively high cost replacements!  NONE have come close to working out!  Paps was a proven commodity!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:

    Long term?  It's a GREAT DEAL!  Time to make it!


    I would not want to give Boras the opportunity to laugh us out of the room on a 5/15 offer. No way Ells takes it, after having been told he's good for $20+ for years by Boras.

     

    I've never thought he was loyal enough to leave as much as one dollar on the table. Ells is going to follow the money -- it's that simple.




    If a team will give it to him!!!!

    You say he's not worth $15M/yr & you are a self-proclaimed great gm??

    How does he get $20+M/yr long term deal?

     

    Our only leverage is risk vs. reward?

    Right now, there exists some risk.

    Otherwise, we don't come close to signing him for $15/yr 5 yr deal.

     

    MY ONLY POINT......

    It's WORTH a shot.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jackbu. Show jackbu's posts

    Re: Ells: It's time to start making him serious offers.... BUY LOW

    In response to BurritoT-'s comment:

    $8 million per for 2 years....  you won't want him around longer than that.




    When I read this The Movie Top Gun came to mind.  The scene where Ice Man tells Goose and Maverick that the plaque for the alternates is in the men's room.  Goose puts the palm of his hand on his forehead and starts to laugh and says that kills me.

    Ells deserves more than anyone on the current red sox roster.  Look for 20 million a year for at least 4 years.

     
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