Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    Last year was so great for Ells that the law of "regression to the mean" meant that any number of factors could conspire to prevent a repeat. And so they have.

    I believe in trading players that don't have long under team control when they are red hot or have come off a good year. I advocated trading Ellsbury for whatever else we needed at hot stove or anytime thereafter.

    We've lost that chance now, and this reinforces the idea that he might be injury prone or brittle.

    A trading opportunity sadly missed.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    Softlaw.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    It's a fair point. His trade value was sky high last year. I, too, had maintained I would prefer comparable value in a different piece(s).

    Bad luck, fragile, soft or whatever. His injury history has now become alarming. I just hope, as I did in 2010, that he can get back on the field and perform. The Sox can't resign him with Crawford (and his contract more importantly) on this team. Unless you expect them to committ 40-45 million per year for 2 OF positions, with another 23 for 1B. Pedroia and Lester are due to get paid soon as well. Management showed what they are willing to spend, it's not that.

    The Crawford contract made no sense for SO many reasons.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    Lasiter is not "softlaw". Lasiter is 100% correct, see Jed Lowrie.

    InEpstein and Cherry only know how to buy and sell from a position of weakness and distressed assets. They don't have a clue about the opportunity to sell high to net back player or players who provide better fit and value. The two are butchers.
     
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    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    I smell Softlaw
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    Ells may have had a couple of injuries---how do you write him off as injury prone.

    He gets run over by a mack truck, as in Beltre--while playing out of position in LF, thanks to Francona.

    Then a 6 Ft. 200 pound SS falls on his right shoulder tryin to break up a DP.

    How then do you describe a freak accident if the two injuries above are classified as Injury Prone?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from sheley. Show sheley's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    Here's hoping that Ells can recover and help the Sox later in the season.
    Half-full !!!   Go Sox!!!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    We also blew it by not trading Tony C. before he got beaned, right?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    We also blew it by not trading Tony C. before he got beaned, right?
    Posted by LloydDobler

    Very well put !

    Unfortunately , now Kalish's absence, Crawford's injury complications, and the lack of a capable hitter who  can play center may really hurt us. Let's just hope Ross fills in capably.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    It's very easy now to say "WE should have traded him.  His value was as high as ever.  Duh!"  Yes, very easy to say from the laptop.

    The problem with that argument is - if his value was obviously at an overinflated high, why do you think the Sox were going to get the world for him?  Other teams realize last season was his career year. know his age and tyrack record, etc.

    And how do you know if the Sox shopped him or not, and what the other offers were?  Just because mlbtr doesn't mention it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

    People frequently compare MLB players to stocks, even going so far as to reference them in a direct anaolgy.  However, there is a MAJOR difference; you don't need to get someone to agree to buy a stock when you sell it...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from antiqueman1. Show antiqueman1's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    Last year was so great for Ells that the law of "regression to the mean" meant that any number of factors could conspire to prevent a repeat. And so they have. I believe in trading players that don't have long under team control when they are red hot or have come off a good year. I advocated trading Ellsbury for whatever else we needed at hot stove or anytime thereafter. We've lost that chance now, and this reinforces the idea that he might be injury prone or brittle. A trading opportunity sadly missed.
    Posted by lasitter


    Sad that you are more concerned with having traded Els over his current injury. That was a rough landing on his shoulder. He is not fragile. Can't wait until he returns in a few months so you will eat your words...
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    I smell Softlaw
    Posted by hodgkinsfl1

    Just google "lasitter" (that specific, unusal spelling) and you'll see that it's the screen name I use all over the internet, and have for many years.

    This is me:

    http://www.ncdm.com/

    I've never hidden behind any phony names or aliases.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    Last year was so great for Ells that the law of "regression to the mean" meant that any number of factors could conspire to prevent a repeat. And so they have. I believe in trading players that don't have long under team control when they are red hot or have come off a good year. I advocated trading Ellsbury for whatever else we needed at hot stove or anytime thereafter. We've lost that chance now, and this reinforces the idea that he might be injury prone or brittle. A trading opportunity sadly missed.
    Posted by lasitter

    So anytime that is not under long term control that has a good year gets traded if you are a GM?  That is kind of ridiculous.  He will be back and he will play well again.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    And how do you know if the Sox shopped him or not, and what the other offers were?
    Posted by notin

    You are of course right that we can't know what went on out of the public eye, but if you searched for my old posts you'd see that I was advocating trading for him much earlier.

    When you consider that Ells was (practically) the MVP, and then you consider the rediculous stacks of money that went to free agents that were NOT in the last few months, then I'm certain we could have gotten quite a lot of talent for him if we had been at all skillful in the negotiations.


     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : Sad that you are more concerned with having traded Els over his current injury. That was a rough landing on his shoulder. He is not fragile. Can't wait until he returns in a few months so you will eat your words...
    Posted by antiqueman1

    Injury or no injury, I wish we had traded him. There is no way we could have re-signed him with that snake Boras, and it is obvious to everyone now that there are key pieces we are missing that a trade could have filled.

    I hope he'll be fantastic when he returns, but I'm afraid it could be another lost year. In any case, his market value is dimenished.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : You are of course right that we can't know what went on out of the public eye, but if you searched for my old posts you'd see that I was advocating trading for him much earlier. When you consider that Ells was (practically) the MVP, and then you consider the rediculous stacks of money that went to free agents that were NOT in the last few months, then I'm certain we could have gotten quite a lot of talent for him if we had been at all skillful in the negotiations.
    Posted by lasitter


    So?

    My reply had nothing to do with the timing of anything you ever said.

    All I'm  saying is, maybe Cherington did shiop him, and maybe no one else wanted to give up anything worthwhile.  There is a very good reason many players don't get traded very often after these outlier seasons. 

    The Sox also didn't sign him to a Mauer-esque extension, either. 

    All you are saying is "they could have gotten alot."  What I am saying is, maybe they couldn't have.  If you were a rival GM, would you have bankrupted the farm for Ellsbury this off-season?  If not, why do you think people actually capable of getting GM jobs (and who employ legions of scouts and statisticians)  would have done it?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : So anytime that is not under long term control that has a good year gets traded if you are a GM?  That is kind of ridiculous.
    Posted by snakeoil123

    Of course not.

    The Sox have made any number of reasonable extensions with players that have shown loyalty to Boston, but we all know that Ells has given signals that this kind of loyalty is not in his future.

    I love having franchise players that want to stay here and play forever for reasonable pay, and we have had many.

    My point is much more about trading for present needs, or better yet, for the future.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : All you are saying is "they could have gotten alot."  What I am saying is, maybe they couldn't have.
    Posted by notin

    If you look at the mountains of cash recently raked in by Pujols, Fielder and others, I think that anyone could see that Ells would have been worth quite a lot to just about any team with money.

    Can anyone reasonably think that with the year Ells had that he would have actually been difficult to move?
     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    For me, the fact the Ells is a Boras client has always been the driving logic behind the "trade him" argument.  If Crawford hadn't been signed I would have said that paying Ells was a no brainer, but once Crawford was brought aboard, paying Ells became a lot more questionable.

    I don't buy into the injury prone argument, both his injuries have come on plays where there was serious contact. I welcome anyone on this board to get popped by Beltre while running full speed.  And yesterday's injury, he had a grown man dropped on his outstretched arm/Shoulder, that is a recipe for disaster.

    Ells dives all over CF and is always fine, he took a serious fall going for that ball in DET the other day. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : If you look at the mountains of cash recently raked in by Pujols, Fielder and others, I think that anyone could see that Ells would have been worth quite a lot to just about any team with money. Can anyone reasonably think that with the year Ells had that he would have actually been difficult to move?
    Posted by lasitter


    THere is a big difference for "difficult to move" and "getting what you want."  And I do think it would have been tough to get an acceptable return for an obvious one season wonder. 

    Softlaw repeatedly insists we could have dealt him for the younger, cheaper, controlled longer Justin Upton. Not likely.

    The Sox might have listened, had a benchmark, and never heard any offers that were anywhere close. How many one-season wonders were dealt for franchise talent? The only example I can think of is Kent Bottenfield, and that kind of deal is unlikely to ever happen again...
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : Very well put ! Unfortunately , now Kalish's absence, Crawford's injury complications, and the lack of a capable hitter who  can play center may really hurt us. Let's just hope Ross fills in capably.
    Posted by jimedfred


    You are right.  It was a very unfortunate injury to Ellsbury, but injuries happen.  We really need Crawford to return, but who knows when this will be.   In the meantime, the other Red Sox players are going to have to provide the offense until Ellsbury returns.  I was really looking forward to Crawford's return this season. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSox_Giants_Devils_Nicks. Show RedSox_Giants_Devils_Nicks's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    What are your feelings on bill hall 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : THere is a big difference for "difficult to move" and "getting what you want."  And I do think it would have been tough to get an acceptable return for an obvious one season wonder.  Softlaw repeatedly insists we could have dealt him for the younger, cheaper, controlled longer Justin Upton. Not likely. The Sox might have listened, had a benchmark, and never heard any offers that were anywhere close. How many one-season wonders were dealt for franchise talent? The only example I can think of is Kent Bottenfield, and that kind of deal is unlikely to ever happen again...
    Posted by notin


    In 2008 Ellsbury finished 3rd in ROY voting.  In 2009, age 25, Ellsbury improved in every offensive category, collected 185 hits, and led the A.L. in triples and Stolen bases.

    Calling him a "one-season wonder" is not only false but actually, moronic.  He was an improving young player, with 2 productive seasons under his belt (Also contributed greatly in the late stages of 2007) when he was hurt in 2010.  Maybe his power numbers from 2011 were an aberation but to anyone who was paying attention since 2007, last year was a break out season from a player who had long shown glimpses of a very high ceiling.


     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...

    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down...:
    In Response to Re: Ells: Nowhere to go but down... : In 2008 Ellsbury finished 3rd in ROY voting.  In 2009, age 25, Ellsbury improved in every offensive category, collected 185 hits, and led the A.L. in triples and Stolen bases. Calling him a "one-season wonder" is not only false but actually, moronic.  He was an improving young player, with 2 productive seasons under his belt (Also contributed greatly in the late stages of 2007) when he was hurt in 2010.  Maybe his power numbers from 2011 were an aberation but to anyone who was paying attention since 2007, last year was a break out season from a player who had long shown glimpses of a very high ceiling.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards


    It was an overstatement, but bear in mind the original thought was Ellsbury should have been dealt based on 2011.  Ellsbury is likely never to be the player he was in 2011 ever again, and that has little to do with injuries. 

    Anyone paying attention since 2007 would have realized the following - yes, the power numbers were likely, the OBP is built on batting average (always .050 above), and the BA was built on power.  Take away 15 to 20 HRs, and his BA and OBP drop about 30 points. If Ellsbury is a .290 / .340, he is still a good player (who has other skills), but he is certainly not going to net a boatload of talent in a deal. 

    And like I said, we hjave no idea if he was offered around, and what other teams said they would give back.  ASssuming he could have been dealt in a franchise-altering deal is, to  say the least, premature...
     
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