Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    What are the odds, or what do you think his average numbers of games played will be going forward?

    I think it matters a lot, because the value you get from a player is not just what they produce while in the game, but of course by the number of games played. And in turn the value you get determines how much you can afford to offer that player.

    In Ells case, in a very lumpy average, he's played in only 96 games per year over the past four seasons. And players generally don't get healthier / less injury prone as they age.

    So if he's missed an average of 66 games per year over that four year span (almost 41 percent of the games), what are the odds he might miss between that number and 33 percent (54 games) in the next season or two?

    This is part of the reason I've been against re-signing Ells for big money. I think he was extra motivated to get in as much playing time as possible to pump up his numbers in his walk year, and yet he still missed 28 games. I'm afraid that once he gets that fat contract in his back pocket, he'll tend toward 134 games as the high point of years where he doesn't experience more significant injuries.

    That's the way I'd structure a bid for him -- and be happy to see him go if it didn't work out

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In the four seasons he didn't suffer a freak injury Ells averaged 148 games/season.

    If he had a car crash in 2010 and a piano fell on his head in 2012 would you call him "injury prone"?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    Sure take the numbers and make averages that support your theory....

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    some people dont understand the difderence between freak injury and injury prone. Its a bit ridiculous.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    It's not a "freak injury", if you are prone to not calling off charging infielders.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    It's not a "freak injury", if you are prone to not calling off charging infielders.




     Its still a freak injury, meaning not your normal injury. Because one, or both didnt call the other off doesnt change that. Why is it on Ells and not on Beltre? Sometimes players dont hear other players.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    It's not a "freak injury", if you are prone to not calling off charging infielders.

     




     Its still a freak injury, meaning not your normal injury. Because one, or both didnt call the other off doesnt change that. Why is it on Ells and not on Beltre? Sometimes players dont hear other players.

     



    It's the OF'ers job to call off the IF'er, since he can see both the ball and the other player.

    The IF'er is taught to run hard for any catchable hit, until he is called off. The ball that was hit that day was not a ball beltre could call for.

    Ellsbury continues to not call off other players, so I stick to my position that it was not a "freak injury".

    Also, injuries caused by collisions are "normal".

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from wonderdrums. Show wonderdrums's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    some people dont understand the difderence between freak injury and injury prone. Its a bit ridiculous.



    I wouldn't call Jacoby either of those and don't think Lasitter is either. Call it what you want, but Jacoby has missed significant time for several seasons. Is it his style of play that puts his body in compromising positions? Maybe. i wouldn't want him to change his style of play, would you?  Regardless as to how/why he gets injured it's not foolish for the FO or a fan to think along the lines of protecting your teams finances. We could argue Pedroia is injury prone with all the hand wrist, thumb issues he seems to have. The difference is he plays through it.  It does affect his game though. Don't misconstrue that, Dustin is arguably my favorite player on the roster right now. My point being is how he's perceived. He's hurt but plays, he's a warrior sign him up! He hurt and takes time to heal, don't sign him. The Sox are a better team when he plays, but I don't feel he's a 20 mil per season guy. My two cents. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    Maybe. i wouldn't want him to change his style of play, would you?

    Yes, I'd want him to start calling off other players more often.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    why we are talking about this?   

    What if Boston let him walks, and play Bradley instead.  Suddenly he suck, and then Ben C. will be forced to bring in someone else who may cost the team 8 millions dollars a year.  And still he is worser than Ellsbury at the same time Boston have no good lead off hitter.  

    Come on, Ellsbury should be the first person that Ben C. would like to sign during this off season.    5yrs/70 millions dollars will get him done.  Not one team have given out more than 4 years contract!!!!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    I just think that if you get injured often enough, and miss enough games, it's got to figure in.

    You look at Peedy's numbers and you see a completely different pattern (starting back w/2007)

    193

    157

    154

     75

    159

    141

    160

    To me, you can't begin to compare what his playing time is worth compared to Ells. And it's about mentality -- being a gamer.

    I don't for a second believe that Peedy's time in the infield is "softer" than what Ells saw in CF. There just aren't that many potholes out there ...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    I have posted this here already: some individuals are simply more prone to breaking a bone or tearing a ligament than others with a given amount of force. That is a fact. I believe that Ellsbury is one of those individuals. The fact that he has only been able to play 96 games a year over the past four years is the evidence. Some of those "freak injuries" may not have broken bones in other players' bodies. Contract time is when there is a reckoning for injury prone players. Let THEM assume responsibility for their injury history, not the team. Ellsbury's contract offer should be heavily laden with incentives based on playing time. If he doesn't like that then I would hand him his coat.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from stinkman. Show stinkman's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    why we are talking about this?   

    What if Boston let him walks, and play Bradley instead.  Suddenly he suck, and then Ben C. will be forced to bring in someone else who may cost the team 8 millions dollars a year.  And still he is worser than Ellsbury at the same time Boston have no good lead off hitter.  

    Come on, Ellsbury should be the first person that Ben C. would like to sign during this off season.    5yrs/70 millions dollars will get him done.  Not one team have given out more than 4 years contract!!!!



    Kind of in agreement with u . But ellsbury or choo will be 6/110 million deals or more. If they can't get Beltran who will go to the Yankees. I rather give Bradley a chance. Its great they have other players that have great gloves , but if Ells is going and napoli as well were is the offense coming from. I know pitching is the name of the game. I'm in the minority here I would give jacoby the 100m he's played here he can handle the pressure. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

    why we are talking about this?   

    What if Boston let him walks, and play Bradley instead.  Suddenly he suck, and then Ben C. will be forced to bring in someone else who may cost the team 8 millions dollars a year.  And still he is worser than Ellsbury at the same time Boston have no good lead off hitter.  

    Come on, Ellsbury should be the first person that Ben C. would like to sign during this off season.    5yrs/70 millions dollars will get him done.  Not one team have given out more than 4 years contract!!!!




    5/70? NO CHANCE. there have already been reports that Ellsburys contract appears to be closer to 140M than the 100M the sox are willing to give.  70M? LOL

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    why we are talking about this?   

    What if Boston let him walks, and play Bradley instead.  Suddenly he suck, and then Ben C. will be forced to bring in someone else who may cost the team 8 millions dollars a year.  And still he is worser than Ellsbury at the same time Boston have no good lead off hitter.  

    Come on, Ellsbury should be the first person that Ben C. would like to sign during this off season.    5yrs/70 millions dollars will get him done.  Not one team have given out more than 4 years contract!!!!

    J D Abreu  $68M/6

    McCann $85M/5

    Pence $90M/5

     



     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    There are not a lot of top quality free agents out there this year. It looks like teams are willing to spend plenty on what little there is. We should not be surprised at the size of these contracts. It is possible to stock a contender with low cost, short term deals, but it is certainly not easy. There will always be big spenders out there.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from wonderdrums. Show wonderdrums's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Maybe. i wouldn't want him to change his style of play, would you?

    Yes, I'd want him to start calling off other players more often.



    I agree moon, but is that the only thing? Head first slides at inopportune times? Running into the wall?  I've seen enough of him to know he plays aggressive which suits his speed, but I'm asking because I live out of market. My 6 yr old doesn't understand enough of it to watch yet either:) I see an inning here or there but not enough to have the full picture. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    He's probably the best overall CF'er we've had since Fred Lynn

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Ells signs fat contract, misses 54 games first year ...

    In response to stinkman's comment:

     

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:

     

    why we are talking about this?   

    What if Boston let him walks, and play Bradley instead.  Suddenly he suck, and then Ben C. will be forced to bring in someone else who may cost the team 8 millions dollars a year.  And still he is worser than Ellsbury at the same time Boston have no good lead off hitter.  

    Come on, Ellsbury should be the first person that Ben C. would like to sign during this off season.    5yrs/70 millions dollars will get him done.  Not one team have given out more than 4 years contract!!!!

     



    Kind of in agreement with u . But ellsbury or choo will be 6/110 million deals or more. If they can't get Beltran who will go to the Yankees. I rather give Bradley a chance. Its great they have other players that have great gloves , but if Ells is going and napoli as well were is the offense coming from. I know pitching is the name of the game. I'm in the minority here I would give jacoby the 100m he's played here he can handle the pressure. 

     

     



    Looks like Beltran could go back to the Royals for 3 years... KC pulling a Phillies move with Ruiz and giving the third year he wants at big money.

     

    http://nypost.com/2013/12/03/royals-making-big-push-for-yankees-target-beltran/

    Beltran in KC drastically increases the chance that Ells gets signed by the Yanks and is Damon 2.0.  That would be my biggest fear at this point.  No matter how many games he might miss, it is clear that he is a unique talent that we have seen before in Damon.  He does not play through injuries as well as Damon, but he has all the other tools Damon had.

    The reason this is a concern, is that it directly takes away from your strongest rival with a subtraction by addition.  The Yanks already gained about 3 wins with the new catcher they signed and they would gain about 3 more while subtracting 3 from the Sox if they sign Ells. 

    I would be more than happy to see Beltran in NY at this point and have them lose a draft pick for an old  expensive guy.

     
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