What are the odds, or what do you think his average numbers of games played will be going forward?
I think it matters a lot, because the value you get from a player is not just what they produce while in the game, but of course by the number of games played. And in turn the value you get determines how much you can afford to offer that player.
In Ells case, in a very lumpy average, he's played in only 96 games per year over the past four seasons. And players generally don't get healthier / less injury prone as they age.
So if he's missed an average of 66 games per year over that four year span (almost 41 percent of the games), what are the odds he might miss between that number and 33 percent (54 games) in the next season or two?
This is part of the reason I've been against re-signing Ells for big money. I think he was extra motivated to get in as much playing time as possible to pump up his numbers in his walk year, and yet he still missed 28 games. I'm afraid that once he gets that fat contract in his back pocket, he'll tend toward 134 games as the high point of years where he doesn't experience more significant injuries.
That's the way I'd structure a bid for him -- and be happy to see him go if it didn't work out